I have it on pretty good authority that the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles may very well be making significant progress on a trade involving left-hander Erik Bedard.
Unfortunately, if you are an M’s fan, the word is that the Mariners may agree to include Carlos Triunfel in a deal along with Adam Jones, and perhaps one other player (George Sherrill, most likely), due to their stance on trading Brandon Morrow.
I did not get this info from a source directly involved in the talks, but it was relayed to me through a mutual source of one more directly involved.
If the Mariners send Jones, Triunfel and Sherrill to Baltimore and the return is simply Erik Bedard without Brian Roberts or other valuable pieces, the Soriano-Ramirez trade will be buried by this monster of a mistake.
But, what else is new? This is not a smart baseball team and this would be yet another blunder as they continue to believe they were an 88-win team last year and are building on the team as a result.
Updates coming as I get them, and I’m already making calls to scouts to get reactions to such a deal, should it go through.
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Should it go through????? WTF????????? How could they not send a signed deal back right away if we were dumb enough to include Jones AND Triunfel. And here I thought we weren’t going to get Fleeced in any deal….. Tell me a deal of Jones/Triunfel alone couldn’t get the deal done nor land Santana for that matter were he interested in coming here.
I have never quite figured out their infatuation with Morrow. I like him sure but if you get Bedard - one replaces the other. This is a travesty if it goes through. Maybe we will get lucky and their owner will decline the trade.
We should forget Santana. He won’t agree to come here and he won’t sign an extension anywhere but NY.
I know I was just saying that trade would have easily landed him. All I can say is that if we send both Jones AND Triunfel - he better come with an extension. Any notes on that happening?
No, it wouldn’t have. That’s my point.
A very large part of trade value is whether the trade is even possible.
Ghah.
This is stupid beyond belief.
So do you have any insight onto whether or not we’d be able to sign Bedard to an extension?
Wow. I cannot believe the Mariners would even THINK about that trade. What are the chances of this trade actually happening? Can the Mariners be getting robbed any more? Imagine what Billy Beane could get in return if he was the O’s gm.
Ugh. Please, Wayne Krivsky, or Omar Minaya - step to the plate. Please, Peter Angelos, stick your nose into personnel decisions and nix this one. Please, Bill Bavasi, find some IQ laying around.
I don’t know if I can root for this organization if this deal were to happen, with or without Triunfel.
Jason,
I guess I lied when I said I would not ask for anything…Can you call Chris Larson and ask him to stop this PLEASE!!!!
In the wise words of little Vada Sultenfuss:
Do wa diddy diddy DUM diddy doooooo….
Jason, you can’t be serious about this. I hate this team. What can we do to stop it?
We don’t matter to the M’s brass. We can’t do anything.
Write or fax letters to the ballclub, I don’t know.
Jason is there any chance you might make a contact with the club on behalf of every true m’s fan out there who would not support such a trade?
I mean if we make this deal Im done, seriously. Im born and raised in Seatte, grew up watching games in the Kingdome, but to me, this is no joke, if this deal goes down with the names you are speaking of, Im rooting for the Oakland A’s for the remainder of my days.
Goddam Lincoln, Bavasi, the whole lot of clowns up there.
….just when we begin to put together some serious young talent, these guys want to ship it for a guy we have a 50/50 shot at best to resign? I dont know what to say except these guys dont diserve a job running the hot dog joint at safeco field.
I agree with everything that’s been said, but just to play devil’s advocate here:
- Jones has far more value at CF than in RF
- We have Ichiro in CF, making Jones less valuable to us than to other teams because we can’t play him in CF
- Our scouting in Latin America is typically very good; there’s always another Triunfel out there
- Bedard would certainly be a type A free agent should he leave after 2 years, netting us draft picks that would help offset the talent loss
- If you believe in Fontaine, the talent can be regained in short order
- We have Wlad as an option in a corner O; still a very good prospect, albeit not as good as Jones
- Sherrill is good, but bullpen arms can be replaced
Not saying I’m in favor of the deal, but there are some arguments for it.
Here’s how I’d counter that, Dog, and I know you were just playing DA.
- Ichiro won’t be playing center field in six years.
- He’s not THAT less valuable, because if he’s put in left field where he belongs, he covers nearly as much ground as there is to cover in center field at Camden, for example.
- Trading Triunfel isn’t tragic. The package is.
- But those draft picks won’t be top 15.
- It’s difficult to replace the Jones-Clement types, because there isn’t much risk in them anymore. They are almost certain to contribute regularly in the bigs. With draftees and Latin signings, they are years away and loaded with risk.
- Again, Sherril is expendable. It’s the package and lack of return that sucks.
The argument the M’s are using internally is centered around job security (Bavasi, Lincoln) and making the owners, and therefore Lincoln, too, money by deceiving fans into buying season tickets to a “winner.”
Also, if Jones is traded, they almost have to use to Raul and Balentien in the corners.
Not a good defensive set, though Wlad isn’t terrible.
Remember back a year or so ago when I’d defend Bill Bavasi’s abilities to evaluate talent and that the moves he’d made to that point didn’t reflect his own actual ability to do the job?
Well, I still believe that’s true, but there is one area of being a GM that he has the least of in all of sports - maybe ever.
Balls.
If you’re the GM of any professional sports team and your CEO/Team President mandates a certain manner in which you acquire players and a certain philosophy in which the personnel is run, and you don’t agree, at some point you have to stand up and tell the boss no.
If it costs you your job then I guess you’ll sit out for a year and get paid anyway.
I’m not going to sit here and claim that Bavasi has not fought Lincoln on the whole “win now, put butts in seats” philosophy, but he obviously hasn’t fought hard enough, and that alone makes him a terrible GM.
It has nothing to do with being bad at evaluating talent, especially because that’s not the case (since he relies heavily on Fontaine, and we know he’s good at his job) and it has nothing to do with Bavasi having his own terrible philosophy on how to build a baseball team.
Grow some nads, Bill, and tell anyone who disagrees that you simply do not want any part of trading the farm for two years of a No. 2 starter that may or may not be here in two years and may or may not be able to repeat his career season in which he still didn’t make a full allotment of start.
Prior to the trade deadline in 2006, I wrote very strong words about the fact that many of Bavasi’s moves up to that point had been either mandated specifically (extending Raul before they should have, trading Guillen for nothing) and that the suits demand that the current roster is always the very best it possibly can be to win that year without much regard, if any at all, to the following seasons.
All still true.
But, at what point does that big gigantic caveat get thrown out the window and Bavasi get lit up like a Christmas tree?
A year ago is when he ran out of rope. The Rafael Soriano deal was horrific.
The Jose Vidro deal was horrendous.
Bill Bavasi, without question, has very little power within the organization, and I’m not alone in thinking so.
“I’d say he has less power than any GM out there,” said one rival front office executive. “I don’t think there’s any doubt about it.”
Bavasi might be a horrible GM, that is very possible. But we’ll never know, because unlike the vast majority of the financially competitive clubs in baseball, Seattle doesn’t let their baseball people take care of the baseball stuff.
So, whether Bavasi makes this potentially stupid move by sending far too much talent to Baltimore for Erik Bedard or not, many will be, if they haven’t been already, calling for Bavasi’s head.
But until Howard Lincoln and everyone around him is removed, it doesn’t matter who the GM is. It will always be the same BS.
If you’re the GM of any professional sports team and your CEO/Team President mandates a certain manner in which you acquire players and a certain philosophy in which the personnel is run, and you don’t agree, at some point you have to stand up and tell the boss no.
Aren’t there some scouts somewhere that they can tell Bavasi to fire? He’s been given the order to purge before, and didn’t like it and resigned. Does quitting back then equate to having cojones??
AFAIK — his “Yesmanship” makes him equally guilty for this mess with CHowArmLinStrong…
They would have canned him if he didn’t resign, so no.
Mentioning a potential Bedard-to-Seattle deal Ken Rosenthal said the Mariners would like to send Tuiasosopo in the deal but that the O’s may require Triunfel instead, with another high-level pitching prospect in the deal such as Tillman or Butler if Morrow isn’t included.
Jason, if Bavasi can get MacPhail to accept Tui instead how happy should we all be?
We shouldn’t be.
Not in my opinion. I’ll say this again, if it was up to me, I wouldn’t trade Jones for Bedard straight up.
If this were Johan Santana with two years of control left, that’s a different story.
But pitchers are such a risky, volatile bunch, that I think the Mariners are playing with fire with a guy like Bedard.
I have to disagree. While I like Jones, we already have a CF for many years yet to come, so who cares if the have a guy who could be playing CF, in RF? I think Jones has a solid career ahead of him, but I wouldn’t say his ceiling is any higher than Balentien’s, in regard to what he’ll provide offensively, especially in regard to raw power.
Bottom line is, you’ve got to give, to get. This homegrown concept that Jones is the next coming of Griffey Jr. is just optimism. Yes, he’s more valuable as a CF to Baltimore than as a RF to Seattle. CF is a tough position to fill defensively.
That said, a rotation of Bedard, Hernandez, Batista, Washburn and Silva is perhaps the most solid 1-5 in the AL West. Two years of Bedard is worth Jones, IMHO.
Adding the other names is tough. But the idea that Jones is SO GOOD by himself, that he trumps having an potential ACE in the rotation, just isn’t valid, IMO.
Winners take chances, losers don’t make moves for fear of making the wrong move.
Ed, in the future you never have to start a post with “I have to disagree.” I think we all just pretty much assume that if your name is at the top.
Anyway, I agree with your last statement that winners take chances, but that chance still has to make some kind of sense. Taking a chance on signing Colon, or trading for Scott Olsen are two examples that come to mind. You are taking a chance that the player doesnt ever turn in to what you were looking for when you aquired them, but what you give up if they don’t pan out is so much easier to deal with.
The easiest way to look at this potential trade is wins and losses. I have no factual data to back this up, but I’ve seen USS mariner talk about a decent amount. How many more wins does Bedard give you next year over who we will be throwing out there right now. 6 - 9 is my best guess. Now assuming we are still an 88 win team, (which i think was a fluke), that puts us at best 97 wins this coming year. More likely scenario we are at 95 wins. Assuming the Angels hold at about the same amount of wins as last year, that puts us right in the race. That would be great. Now assume that Richie Sexon hits 35 hr’s this year. That would bump our win total by a few games. Things look even better. Now assume that Felix pitches like he’s capable of. Again even better.
Now think logically about baseball and realize that you can’t assume anything because it’s baseball. Hell, the Florida Marlins could pull another World Series out of their ass next year . You never know, thats why the game is so great. I like Jones as much if not more than most, and I think this is a terrible deal, but even if it gets done, we have Bedard who I really like as well.
Conclusion - No one knows how this will work out. Bedard could win a Cy young next year. Jones could end up being the next Arod. We don’t know and therefore can’t assume. Let things play out how they will and then even if we get completely hosed in the deal, at least we will get some new management.
Truinfel should be 100% UNTOUCHABLE…Why is our management is just horrible. I mean just awfull…Truinfel and JONES for a two year rental. I Hope this is just not true. Jones I can live with but not Truinfel.
Just trade Morrow already Bavasi
I’m with you totally on Bedard, Jason. Though others may be, if we acquire him for whatever it takes I won’t be able to get excited about having the guy.
My feeling is that Bedard’s heart won’t be in playing for the Mariners and his pitching will reflect that. He’ll be like Gil Meche, at best, protecting his arm, until he can cash in two years from now.
I can’t remember a trade where the Mariners acquired a veteran who played better, or even as well, as he did with his previous team. Usually because they didn’t want to be here in the first place.
Gorman Thomas, Kevin Mitchell, Tony Bernazzard, Mike Timlin. Then we watched as the guys we gave up for them became stars.
Jason, great post at #18. I wish one of our local papers would have the balls to write that story, especially the part about Bavasi not having much power within his own organization. It’s really inexcusable that he goes along with it.
Lance - I agree this could be a very lopsided deal in the Orioles’ favor, but saying that, once here, he wouldn’t pitch well because he’s saving his arm for free agency, doesn’t make a lot of sense when you consider how that would impact his free agent value.
Assuming it’s a given that Jones is the primary piece on our side of the trade, and that the trade is DEFINITELY going to happen in one form or another, how do we value the remaining prospects in our system when it comes to selecting second and third pieces in the deal? Are Morrow and Clement untouchable? Is Triunfel more valuable than either or both and therefore untouchable? Where should Tillman, Butler, Mickolio, et al. fit into our calculations?
GLS, he’s got a history of arm troubles already, so why risk further problems before cashing in? He’d probably shift into neutral for the first year and a half to be safe and kick it in gear after the 2009 ASB.
Not a whole lot different from Meche’s pattern after his shoulder problems. Look what it got him.
It seems teams tend to pay more on promise and potential than post performance. How else can you explain the contracts that A.J. Burnett and Gil Meche got?
Bedard sees what works and will pitch accordingly, IMHO.
I get what you’re saying, but think about what he’ll be worth in two years if he continues to pitch that way he has. Plus, he’d be moving from a hitter’s park to a pitcher’s park. As a pitcher, don’t you kind of have to like the idea of pitching in Safeco field, even if you aren’t super-psyched about being in Seattle?
Also, I have kind of a tough time believing a guy like that would deliberately lay down. Despite the more or less consensus negative opinion about the deal itself, this is still a very, very good pitcher and you just don’t get to that level with that kind of attitude. Gil Meche was kind of a pussy. I don’t think anyone’s saying that about Bedard.
Well our offensive woes are at an end!! The Seattle Times is saying we just signed Miguel Cairo!!!
MONEY!
GLS, I’m not saying he’d laydown. Only that he’d “protect himself” first. He might not put out as much as he could at the risk of hurting something again. He’d back off. At least until he was on the verge of becoming a FA, when it counts most.
He wouldn’t be the first to do that.
Kind of like Meche. Seems like there was always something with that guy. He’s certainly getting it worked out now that he’s got a big contract to earn.
HELP!! this is absolute madness! i read a post from the baltimore sun, and needless to say, they are sooo excited about the deal!! i am a HUGE Jones fan and my heart is breaking right now! i have tried to be optimistic about this trade, but i can’t! we would be getting the short end for sure, and i wouldn’t be able to watch a game. doing nothing is better than doing something stupid!! and this is Jacked up! IMO
If this deal goes through, i will stop whatever i’m doing, and go hunting for the entire FO. I swear this is quite possibly one of the most idiotic trade packages i have ever heard. Anyone know the going rate on putting out a hit?
well if it’s jones/clement/tillman or Tui is perfectly fine with me - just so long as Triunfel is not part of the deal. We need to give up something to get a #1 type starter so this is fine. Clement has no place on the club and who knows what Tillman or Tui will turn out to be. So i’d disagree with Jason and say a Jones for Bedard deal is just fine - not a bad deal. Will Jones be ’special’? As special as a 25/100 can be. I’d rate special as a 40+/120 type guy which Jones won’t be. Yes it sucks but if you have to give him up to get that #1 type guy then do it and don’t think twice about it. They don’t come around very often whereas finding a 25/100 type guy or close to it in the OF is not the hardest thing to do.
We’ll finally be pairing Felix with another great pitcher instead of this crap we have been surrounding him with the last few years. A 1-2 punch is needed if you want any hope of going far in the playoffs and we don’t have it now and haven’t since we had Garcia and Moyer were here back in 2000.
We’ve got a reasonable replacement for Jones not far away: Balentein, maybe even Saunders, who was the best player by far on Team Canada after having an eye-opening year on the M’s farm.
We have a reasonable set of potential long-term replacements for Morrow (who is not going to be a superstar in ‘08 anyway): Tillman, Butler, Aumount.
We have depth at catcher, with Jojima, Clement, Johnson, and Adams.
Any two of the above for Bedard might be worth the gamble. There’s no telling who might work out and who not among nearly equal talent.
Triunfel is only 18 and is going to be in AA sometime this year, and maybe AAA in Tacoma. He’s something special that comes along rarely, according to most accounts. You do not move him.
And I still think Jason’s list of potential pitching trades for out-of-favor high-talent guys (Olsen, Jackson, Cabrera, etc.) makes a lot of sense because those trades won’t cost us a load of top flight talent…and could land us a talent-loaded but slow to develop high end pitcher.
I wonder, too, what effect trading the 17-year old Triunfel now would have on the Mariners’ ability to sign international players, especially in the DR, in the future.
Triunfel and his family were willing to go with the M’s offer, not because it was the best one, but because they felt comfortable with the Mariners’ people. They were really sold on the people and the city.
Now, you trade him after one year, what are these kids and their families going to think when they come calling in the future trying to get them to accept the Mariners’ lower offer compared to other teams? Would these kids’ and their parents give Seattle the time of day? I wonder. Maybe not.
Yes, it is a business. But, because it is would it benefit the M’s FO if they gave up on a kid they were so high on just one year ago despite the fact that he’s done everthing they wanted him to do.
Would the M’s let Triunfel be the deal breaker that prevented them from acquiring two years of Erik Bedard’s services? I don’t know, but I think they should.
Maybe Bavasi has more going on here than is apparent.
There are reports that the Orioles have traded Brian Roberts to the Cubs for Gallagher Marchall and Cedeno. That would leave the Orioles short of a starting 2B. Perhaps Lopez is being considered as a piece of the Bedard deal. That could explain the Cairo signing, since its not entirely unthinkable that McLaren would want Bloomquist as his starting 2B.
Also, its very likely that Bavasi has been posturing about not wanting to include Morrow in any deal. The addition of Bedard means that Morrow would be frozen out of the rotation until 2010, which would seem to make him expendable, especially since Tillman and/or Butler should be close by then as well, with Aumont and Ramirez not far behind.
The Orioles have also been linked with Corey Patterson as a fall back plan. Could it be that they realize that they won’t get a CF for Bedard? The Reds have already said Bruce is not an option. Why can’t the Mariners say the same with Jones?
It’d be nice if Bavasi can swing this deal without giving up Jones. Could landing Bedard for a package of Morrow, Lopez, Sherill, and either Butler or Tillman be a possibility?
Triunfel and his family were willing to go with the M’s offer, not because it was the best one, but because they felt comfortable with the Mariners’ people. They were really sold on the people and the city.
Now, you trade him after one year, what are these kids and their families going to think when they come calling in the future trying to get them to accept the Mariners’ lower offer compared to other teams? Would these kids’ and their parents give Seattle the time of day? I wonder. Maybe not.
That’s a valid point, Lance. I’m not sure what the impact would be, but it’s certainly something to consider…
Lamda, trading Clement is also shortsighted. He’s a left handed power hitter which translates well at Safeco. I personally am against dealing him at this time. If the team could convince him to play first, we could get his bat into the lineup regularly should Sexson faulter again (which IMHO seems likely).
The problem is what do you project him out to be stats wise? Do you project him to hit say 30/100? I would say that’s a pretty big stretch for him which is what you would want basically, or close to it, from your 1B. Everywhere that I have read says his true value is at C as if he were to hit 20/80 as a catcher you’d be pretty happy as not a lot of catchers do that. 20/80 for a 1B is below average - same goes for DH traditionally anyways. So it seems he has to be the C but with Kenji - he won’t get that chance. Kenji will be extended to a 2-3 year deal i’d guess as soon as this Bedard thing is done.
Who does the Orioles have lined up for 2B if Roberts is indeed dealt? #40; It does make sense that signing a Willie Bloomquist clone in Cairo would be a bit redundant. Although Bloomquist in the starting lineup is a little scary, I wouldn’t mind it if it would inevitably nets us Bedard without giving up Jones.
Sort of a stretch but a nice thought.
Lance are you sure the Mariners offer wasnt the best one? Do you have that from a good source?
So basically the M’s are considering moraging their future to still be a 3rd place team team in there division ( maybe 2nd if the have a peek year). I just don’t understand this logic at all. This is the very reason we will continue to suck as long as bonehead bavasi and the current ownership group is in charge.
I guess we will hear from them well what did you expect us to do we raised the ticket prices so now instead of a last place team you can pay more to watch a 3rd place team.
The idea of this trade is very depressing to me. This is a deal the M’s would regret for a long, long time.
If it actually goes down, maybe it can backfire and cause a huge backlash from the fans, forcing the front office to change some things.
I’m sure its a far fetched idea but I’m getting tired of this stuff. Triunfel is money in the bank and you can’t throw that away!
I’m just hoping that the small chance that this is posturing on someone’s end.
The source I got it from has never been off on this stuff, but I can tell you the info did not come from the M’s side of things.
So maybe it’s the O’s leaking a little bit out so the Reds or Mets or Indians step it up.
As desperate as it seems Bavasi is at time to make deal and get better, It’s hard to believe that even he would trade Jones-Triunfel-Clement for Bedard.
One off topic thing…
It seems to me that people are underestimating the potential value of Wladimir Balentien (not you ed, you see it). He had just as good a season - if not better - than did Jones last year in Tacoma and has more raw power.
He might be a little bit more ready with the bat than AJ, and while his overall value isn’t as high due to pure speed, defensive range and throwing arm, he’s not some ordinary prospect, either.
I’ll be very disappointed if Balentien doesn’t see significant time in the big leagues this year, whether Jones is traded away or not.
Jones has more raw tools than Wlad, that’s very clear. But, if Ichiro is in CF, you don’t need the Jones tool set in either corner slot.
I think the rumor is BAD, period. If I were Baltimore, I’d want Jones too…..and would hold out for him. He’d grow nicely into being a solid performer at a premium defensive position. I’m sure Bavasi knows the value of having a Gold Glove CF, with five tool potential. But, lets be honest. Bedard isn’t just a pitcher. He’s a guy who can anchor the rotation, with Hernandez just waiting to fall in behind him. That, is HUGE. You have the potential of TWO aces in the rotation, which no other AL West team has had since the A’s of the early 2000’s. And, don’t forget, Seattle has at least THREE 1-3 slot pitchers a few years away. So, after his two years, he goes. One of those three should be ready to step in. Seattle gets the draft picks, and opens a hole in the rotation. You can’t treat tomorrow like it’s not repairable. So many things can happen….good, and bad. So, you take your shot if you can get it.
Bad to the pieces in the deal……Bavasi isn’t that desparate. He built this farm system with the future in mind, he’s not about to tear it down. Everyone would like to get something for nothing, but it’s not going to happen.
I suspect if Jones goes in a deal, they’re not getting two more upper tear prospects, AND Sherrill. If it was me, it would be Jones, Sherrill and maybe Tillman. Carlos ain’t going anywhere, especially with Beltre’s situation coming to a close. I’d throw Tui in the deal, because right now, he hasn’t shown enough development……but has potential still.
These rumors seldom are what they appear. Nearly every deal that gets mentions is a “pie in the sky” mega deal, usually favoring whoever’s prospective it’s being discussed from.
I could live with Jones in the rotation, Clement sticking as a lefty power bat, Wlad in RF with a rotation of Bedard, Hernandez, Batista, Washburn and Silva. If you think that’s third place in this division…..you’re crazy….IMO.
Oops….I meant Bedard in the rotation, not Jones.
There is more than just something to the idea of having a plus defender in left field however, so Jones’ range is not wasted playing left.
Yeah, I know, they keep talking about using him in right. But that doesn’t mean he can’t move over at some point once they learn that he belongs over there.
In right, his skills aren’t wasted, just not properly utilized.
And yeah, I don’t see how the M’s finish lower than 2nd place. They won’t be a bad team, and the A’s and Rangers are awful.
Is there any senario where we trade for Bedard, and Lowe and some of the other young pen arms are healthy enough such that Bavasi decides to put Morrow in AAA for half a season because the pen is already loaded?
Jason, I’d be interested to know what you thought of Lance’s comment #39. It seems to me that by tradeing Triunfel the M’s would have a harder time landing very good international FA’s.
Why would trading Triufel hurt International signings? You guys are overthinking. A shortstop playing in Venezuala could care less about where Carlos is. He’s following the money an probably more concerned about who might be blocking him.
I’d bet that most kids don’t even know any International signees, beyond their country mates.
No negative effect whatsoever. One potential Latin signing isn’t going to look much into the fact the club traded one recently.
If they made a habit of it, it might make a difference somewhere along the way.
If Lowe was already 100% - or had never had surgery in the first place - Morrow wouldn’t have spent last year in the pen, most likely.
I’d prefer Morrow starts the year in the majors as the fifth starter than as a relief arm.
I am reading that the potential deal with the Cubs is now being held up as the Orioles are asking for a higher price, including Felix Pie. It seems like the Orioles are valuing Roberts and Bedard higher than clubs are willing to pay. Bedard is a very good starter, but he does not have the long track record of Santana.
I would love to have him in a Mariners’ uniform next season, but I am not willing to give away the whole farm for him. Without upgrading the offense (which losing Jones will hurt), the club is not going to overtake the Angels for the AL West or some combination of the Yankees/Red Sox/Tigers/Indians for the wild card. That being the case, I would rather sit back and let Jones, Morrow, Clement, Tillman and Butler mature and be a force in the coming years.
Rosenthal is saying the deal is one player away and he made it sound imminent. He’s saying Tillman. You hearing anything Jason?
I’d aim toward exploding (winning) when the impact youngsters the team has (Felix, Jones, Clement, even Lopez, Betancourt, Morrow) are most likely to be good simultaneously.
That might mean 2009 or 2010.
And if they have to make moves for 2008, Silva is here now, he helps. They can still add players for 2008. Just don’t harm 2009 and beyond in order to do it.
Signing FAs doesn’t hurt this club’s future.
Trading Jones, and other young talent, certainly does.
thr33niL,
Fluff piece. Read it again closely. He doesn’t make it sound iminant at all. His word of choice was that the Mariners / Orioles talks were “fluid”. The names aren’t even finalized yet. Aside from Jones, he makes it sound like everybody else is still being discussed.
I doubt this is even close to done.
ClosER is probably the best way to put it. But I think that describes Baltimore more than Seattle.
TIF,
After the talks are “fluid” part, he says..
[i]“Bedard: A trade between the Orioles and Mariners is only one player away from completion, major-league sources say, but that one player could be right-hander Chris Tillman, a 19-year-old that the M’s would prefer to retain.”[/i]
Thats where I got the imminent feeling.
thr33niL,
How’s that different from earlier this week? Like I said, before it was “Morrow is the sticking point” (one player away), now it’s someone else perhaps? It still doesn’t seem like much progress to me to declare imminent.
Imminent usually means it’s going to happen, it’s just a matter of time. Whether it happens or not, ultimately, it’s not imminent at all, not where the M’s are concerned.
God JAC,
I hope your report on the upper right is more fact then truth.
More fact than truth?
I like that.
Hey Jason I am a Reds fan that stumbled across a link to this. That seems like a lot of talent for the Reds to give away, but unlike the Mariners, they would be leaving their top outfield prospect, and the minor league player of the year, Jay Bruce in their organization, while the Mariners deal sends Jones to the O’s. It’s not the best of deals, but it works, sort of. Also not trying to be an a$%, but is this a reliable source that you’ve gotten reliable information from before? Just not familiar enough with your work to have any idea.
Grizzlyfox,
Welcome to Prospect Insider. JAC does a lot of good work here reporting on Mariners minor league farm talents and prospects. But the focus is on Mariners prospects and not Reds prospects, so it’s hard for us to say that they’d be giving up a lot of talent. I’d say you have more reliable info on the goings on of the Reds prospects then we do. With 32 major league teams, who has the time to keep track of everybody’s kids? =)
As for the source info, I’ll leave that to JAC. I’m guessing a lot of this info is being spread around by the Orioles trying to create a sense of urgency in both clubs.
I’ve stopped trusting one of my previous sources this winter because he seemed to be getting bad info and passing it on, so all I have left are reliable people.
This particular source received this information from someone inside the Reds organization, so there is at least some level of truth to it.
It does not mean the deal is going to get done, it doesn’t mean that the Reds have actually made that particular offer, at least not yet.
The Encarnacion note bares some speculation by all parties.
Alright sounds good, we’ll just have to wait and see how this one plays out.
Thanks
I expect the Reds to max out for Bedard, though. Krivsky is fighting for his job, too. They considered firing him this past November already.
I look at Jones as a potential 30/30 Gold glove guy. One of his favorable comps put up an 80 steal 100 rbi season with 27 HR’s (most hr’s by a player to steal 80 or more bases by 15 or so) I was only looking at that particular year when researching who had the most Hr’s in a 100 Steal season of 20 such seasons (Rickey Henderson 1982, 130 steals 10HR.) All the way down the list of seasons nobody had more than 1 or 2 more than that until Davis. I’m not saying I’d expect 80 steals in any season of his career, but do the people asking for projected stats understand what even 30-50 steals are worth? Wlad may outdo Adam in Hr’s and power by a bit, but if Jones gets in the groove of base-stealing he could still be more valuable offensively.
I think it’s out of the question to expect a lot of steals from Jones. He’s not a plus-plus runner, and he’s yet to really learn to steal bases.
Thirty isn’t a ridiculous ceiling, but he’s just not going to be a big base stealer and there’s not a ton of value in that anyway unless those 30 steals come in 35 attempts. Getting caught stealing is a pretty large negative.
Where Jones overtakes Balentien in potential is baserunning in general (he’s faster with similar instincts) and defense. And it doesn’t matter what spot Jones is playing - he’ll be better than Balentien by quite a bit.
There isn’t one thing Balentien does in the field that approaches Jones’ own abilities in that area.
But, like Ed repeats, and I echo, Wlad is no slouch and may very well end up being a little bit better bat, and maybe a little bit sooner, than Jones, too.
If Jones has an OFP (Overall Future Potential, using the 20-80 scale) of, say, 65, Balentien might be close to 60 with a tad less risk.
I should also bring up the idea that if both players were to stay well beyond their control years (six) that Adam Jones is much more likely to age well than is Balentien.
going back to #59,
This is what kills me. For the first time in maybe forever, the M’s have a chance to put a ridiculously good young roster out on the field a couple of years from now, but or almost content to have consecutive 2nd place finishes at the cost of said future success in order to not appear like they have given up to the casual fan.
My question is this. If they are doing all this to maintain the casual fan, hasn’t the casual fan ripped the FO’s stupid moves in the past? Was the Vidro trade that well received? I’m pretty sure the HoRam one wasnt.
The FO wants to create a ‘competitive’ team, and not give the impression of ever giving up on a season, but wouldn’t that trade be giving up on many a future seasons?
FYI –
I sent an email to Howard Lincoln last night in the name of all fans that care about sustaining long-term success.
I was nice and cordial and avoided talking down to him and ridiculing the organization.
A few of the points I made included a few paragraphs on how smart the fans in this town are now, and that the fans do and will recognize when the ball club is doing the right thing, even when it means making a choice not to necessarily be better immediately.
The fans in this city want a smart baseball team who puts a four or five-year span ahead of one or two seasons.
We’ll show up in droves to see Jones, Clement, Morrow and company develop, all the while making the team more competitive in the long run and for a longer period of time, and for a lot less money on the books.
If Howard has ever heard of me, he doesn’t like me, but we’ll see how he responds.
I urge all of you to use to use the feedback email address to express your concern about the mortgaging of a very promising future.
Click Here to Email The Mariners
It certainly cannot hurt.