Just wanted to get everyone’s take on what has been rumored thus far regarding the Mariners.

Which deals do you like, which don’t you like, why do or don’t you like them?  Erik Bedard for a premium package and two years under club control good enough for you?

What kind of winter would disappoint you?  What would be somewhat satisfactory?  How about good?  What would make a good winter for the M’s in your eyes?

Keeping it realistic, seriously realistic and reasonable, what would be a great offseason to you?

The Seattle Mariners are in Nashville for this year’s Winter Meetings and arrived over the weekend with a to-do-list that is certain to end up unfinished.

Clearly, the Mariners need starting pitching, which is why they have extended themselves to great depths to land Japanese right-hander Hiroki Kuroda. The club could use upgrades at first base, second base and on the bench.

So what are they going to do?

“They haven’t been all that revealing about what they want after starting pitching,” said one club’s assistant GM. “Seattle is always very active at these things and I think they are in a unique position for themselves.”

Unique position? Really? Seems they are in the same position every year. No?

“Well, this year they do have more than one commodity of high value and this is a time when trades are going to make a lot more sense than throwing money at the market. They have pieces that could get deals done, they just have to be willing to part with them.”

Of course he’s talking about the prospects, such as Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow, Wladimir Balentien, among a few others.

Forgetting, for a second, whether GM Bill Bavasi is willing to part with such talent, what could the Mariners get in packages that include their best young major-league ready players?

“They could get into talks with any club about any available player. (Johan) Santana, (Miguel) Cabrera, Erik Bedard… pretty much anyone. The Marlins like hard throwers and toolsy position players. It’s hard to imagine they wouldn’t at least listen if the Mariners offered Jones, Clement and Morrow, for example.

“But they need pitching first. If Bedard is put on the market, Seattle could really be a player. Baltimore could use a center fielder, anyone that can hit and anyone that can field at the premium spots.”

Yuniesky Betancourt, Jones and Morrow for Bedard? Hmmm.

Seattle has been linked to several names, but other than the basic “they called, we talked,” there hasn’t been a ton of movement. The Mariners are waiting for Kuroda to make his decision, which one member of the M’s front office staff expects within the next 48 hours.

If and once they have Kuroda under contract, the club can focus on other things. Here are five things the club needs to get done this winter if they wish to compete with the LA Angels, who are the front runners for Cabrera and have already added Torii Hunter and Jon Garland.

1. Make Jose Vidro a part-time player (or shed his presence altogether)
In order to do this, they must upgrade in another spot, either first base or a corner outfield spot. Jose Guillen is not returning, and with Ichiro in center and Jones in one corner, it would be very wise for Seattle to make Raul Ibanez the regular DH, or at least versus RH (that’s another post), and find another bat for right field.

Vidro will be tough to trade with the money he’s guaranteed, but he wouldn’t be completely useless as a bench bat. At this point, his salary has to be ignored when it comes to his ideal role.

Outfield possibilities include Geoff Jenkins (Padres are really heavy on him), Kosuke Fukudome (Sounds like he’s going to sign with the Cubs or Dodgers), Jason Bay (Pitt selling low makes little sense), Kenny Lofton, Corey Patterson, and potentially even Milton Bradley, the current version of Carl Everett, but Bradley can actually play some still.

Brad Wilkerson is very well liked by Jeff Pentland, who worked with him in the minors.

Probability: 25%
The club seems sold on playing Jones in right and Raul back in left with Vidro at DH, limiting their chances at getting better offensively, which brings us to…

2. Trade Richie Sexson
Much, much easier said than done. He’s due $14 million and coming off a terrible season and while he’s not at the age where you’d expect his career to be over, he isn’t exactly the type of player physically that will age well, especially when you consider he’s already had shoulder and knee problems and he’s only 32.

Replacing Sexson with even the average left-handed bat at first base makes the M’s offense much more efficient, or add that bat in the outfield and play Ibanez at first, either way.

But it’s more than clear that the M’s will have to send a significant amount of cash along to pawn Sexson off on someone else. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t any interest.

San Francisco still has some level of interest, though finally they are looking to go younger wherever possible, and the Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros apparently have some interest as well.

Probability: 10%
John McLaren is one of Sexson’s biggest fans and unfortunately that may be enough to limit Bavasi’s energy output for a Sexson trade.

3. Get More Offensively Out of Second Base
Whether that means lighting a fire under Jose Lopez, handling him better (Jeff Pentland) or replacing him altogether, something has to give. Lopez hasn’t developed the plate coverage, strike zone judgment and plate discipline to be a consistent bat, and he’s shown only minimal improvements in those areas since first being called up in 2004.

Among the second baseman the Mariners have some interest in include Marcus Giles, Mark Grudzielanek, Mark Loretta, Freddy Sanchez, Jose Valentin and Ty Wigginton. Obviously the Mariners aren’t happy with Lopez if they are considering deals for some of these guys.

Probability: 20%
Yung Chi Chen may make the club out of spring training and push Lopez if the club doesn’t trade their returning starter and sign a free agent.

4. Make a Decision on the Fifth Spot
Considering how tough it’s going to be to add one starting pitcher this winter let alone two, the M’s may stay in-house with the No. 5 spot, and the only pitcher that should not be allowed to compete for it is Horacio Ramirez.

Ryan Rowland-Smith, Sean White, Ryan Feierabend, Cha Seung Baek, and even Brandon Morrow, who needs time in the minors but the club insists he can start the year in Seattle’s rotation, make more sense than Ramirez at a cost of $5 million.

But from the sound of it, Bavasi is leaning very heavily toward tendering Ramirez a contract and handing him the fifth spot. Whichever way they decide to go, they should make that choice now. Not which one it will be, but whether Ramirez will be in the mix and whether RRS will be included.

Morrow isn’t going to be ready for the job, but the others should be able to put up No. 5 starter performances. If RRS is not going to be among the group, he can slide back into the bullpen nicely, giving the club a very deep relief corps and potentially making either George Sherrill or Eric O’Flaherty, both arms who hold value as a second piece in a larger trade, expendable.

The relievers are going to go quickly once the bigger names on the market are traded and signed and if Seattle wants to add one, they’ll need to do it sooner rather than later, so knowing what they have is critical.

Probability: 50%
Mel Stottlemyre is high on having middle relievers that have starter stuff, so that may have the club leaning toward using RRS in relief again, which is probably the right call… unless he’s truly the best option at the fifth spot, which may very well be the case.

The M’s will probably push Morrow far too fast than they should, and if that doesn’t make him the No. 5 in April, he’ll probably be up in July, pushing RRS back to the bullpen - if that’s the scenario that plays out in the first place.

5. Favor the Lefty
Any offensive additions to the club should be left-handed, if at all possible. Of course, getting the best hitter is more important than adding one that hits from the left side, but all other things being equal, or in the 90th percentile, adding a left-handed bat to better balance the lineup is likely to make a significant different, particularly if that bat replaces Vidro’s or Sexson’s.

While Fukudome, Jenkins and Bradley all bat left-handed, they may price themselves out of Seattle as the club seems hellbent on not spending much money on their outfield this year.

Speaking of lefties, it’s not impossible that the club takes Clement north with them in April and he helps keep Vidro out of the everyday order.

Moving on, the Mariners have also expressed some interest in bench bats/platoon bats such as Trot Nixon, Lew Ford, Jeff DaVanon, Corey Koskie and Mike Lamb, as well as backup catcher Jose Molina.

If I Had To Bet On It…
I’d wager that Kuroda signs with Seattle by Wednesday, setting off a slew of other deals around the league for Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez and Kyle , and sending the Mariners into a big time search for offensive help.

Expect the Mariners to make at least two trades this month and perhaps one minor free agent signing outside of Kuroda. I don’t expect Sexson to be traded, nor do I expect Lopez to be dealt, either. But I do think both will have short leashes in 2007 which means the backup plans have to be in place, and this is where Chen and Clement come into play as in-season options.

Adam Jones is not likely to be traded anywhere, and I don’t even think Wladimir Balentien gets dealt until July.

Don’t be too disappointed if the club doesn’t do much this offseason. It might just be wiser to improve the team’s defense and set themselves up for 2009.

Not that 2008 doesn’t matter.

Tonight I’ll have the report on Brandon Morrow’s start from yesterday - it didn’t go well - and an update on the Hiroki Kuroda situation.

Also, I’ll share a quote from a special assistant to the GM of a club in which M’s have talked trade this week.

You won’t want to miss that. A deal is not imminent by any means, but he said some things I’m sure he wishes he hadn’t.

Surprisingly, I’m a little bit jazzed about the possibilities. The Seattle Mariners are well represented in Nashville at this year’s Winter Meetings, and there is certainly no shortage of rumors involving the Emerald City Nine.

Question is, can they get anything done, and if so, will it be at the level of impact necessary to compete with the best in the American League in 2008?

If they get done what they want to get done, perhaps.

Instead of dissecting each potential transaction, let’s paint a much more entertaining picture.

The Best Case Scenario.

The M’s are very much in on Baltimore Orioles left-hander Erik Bedard, who has told the team he will not sign a contract extension with them before he hits free agency following the 2009 season.

The Mariners claim they have not made an official offer, but for their name to be linked to Bedard so prominently they certainly exchanged ideas with Andy McPhail and were not completely turned away.

I asked a few front office executives and scout what they truly believe it will take to land Bedard and to a man, they said it would depend on two things.

One, did the Minnesota Twins trade Johan Santana, and two, what did they get in return?

“It will favor either seller or buyer and the clubs will use the Santana trade as a barometer if it helps them,” said one club’s assistant GM. “It’ll carry some weight, too; there are similarities that cannot be denied.”

One scout is very confident that Seattle would have to part with Adam Jones, almost no matter what the rest of the package may be.

“Jeff Clement isn’t going to interest them as much, they need a center fielder,” he said. “I’d be surprised if they didn’t demand a young arm to go with Jones, but any deal not involving a center fielder would have to come equipped with a pretty special pitching prospect.”

Note: The O’s have drafted catchers twice in the last four years, hence the disinterest in Clement

Seattle doesn’t have the “special pitching prospect,” and the Dodgers aren’t going to trade Clayton Kershaw for Bedard. In fact, rumor has it that the Orioles asked for Matt Kemp and Jonathan Broxton and the Dodgers said no. The Mariners equivalent to that deal is Jones and Brandon Morrow, plus a third player since the Dodgers pair carry slightly more current value.

The Mets have apparently offered right-handers Philip Humber and Aaron Heilman plus center fielder Carlos Gomez, which is a solid deal, but the M’s can beat that package easily, if they are willing to part with both Jones and Morrow.

Baltimore may ask for more, depending on what Santana nets the Twins, if anything, and it’s out of the realm of possibility that they ask for Clement anyway, or ask for Wladimir Balentien, as the third piece of the package.

That’s too much in my book, and should kill the deal is the Orioles stuck such a demand.

“I think Jones and Morrow is too much, to be honest,” said an AL East advanced scout. “I really like Bedard, but you’re only getting him for two years and he’s not Johan Santana. Plus there is a small degree of concern about his durability. If you give up that kind of talent, you need to be sure you are getting back a durable guy, don’t you?

“Adding another quality prospect should be out of the question. If they need a third player, they should even it out some by adding something to their end of things.”

For the sake of, well, fun, let’s assume the Mets land Dan Haren - for a similar package they offered to Baltimore for Bedard, and either the Yankees or Red Sox land Santana, leaving the other to go after Bedard and Joe Blanton.

The Orioles are very unlikely to trade Bedard to a division rival, Peter Angelos is big on avoiding that, so that leaves the Dodgers and the Mariners.

If LAD is truly not going to trade Broxton, as Colletti has claimed, and especially a package including both Kemp and Broxton, the M’s might be in a great spot to snag Bedard at a reasonable price.

And to make it more interesting and serving to both clubs, let’s spice it up a bit.

Seattle sends CF Adam Jones, LF Wladimir Balentien, LHP Eric O’Flaherty and 2B Jose Lopez to Baltimore.

Baltimore sends LHP Erik Bedard and 2B Brian Roberts to Seattle.

This works if you are Baltimore for the following reasons.

1. If you are dealing Bedard, you aren’t looking to win in 2008. This rebuild gives Jones and Balentien, and Lopez for that matter, time to get better as the roster is improved. If they want a starting pitcher in the deal and demand Morrow, replace Balentien with Morrow, reluctantly.

2. Roberts is making $14.3 million over the next two years and then is a free agent, certain to cost the O’s dearly to retain. If they are rebuilding and want to be ready to win by 2010, Roberts isn’t likely to be around anyway, and Lopez still has upside and is inked to a fairly cheap
deal through 2010.

It’s a lot to give up if you are Seattle, but they have put themselves in a situation where if they are going to trade the kids, then trade the kids and give yourself a chance. But to deal two of your top three kids without getting better in two areas, well, that shouldn’t happen, and in the deal I painted above, the M’s get that done.

The club us also talking to the agent for outfielder Geoff Jenkins, which is interesting enough, but how aggressive they get with the idea of trading Jones is likely connected to any talks they get into involving another outfielder.

Best case scenario, continued…

- The M’s sign Geoff Jenkins to two-year deal worth $8 million per season.
- Non-tender Horacio Ramirez.
- Trade Ben Broussard to the Giants for a C+ level prospect.
- Complete the contract for Hiroki Kuroda (I wouldn’t, but it’s something they really want to do) at three years plus a vesting option, worth an average of $10.5 million per season.
- Accept the fact that Sexson is at least going to start the season in Mariner blue unless as much as $6-7 million in cash is sent along.
- Sign Milton Bradley to one year contract with incentives that could include a guaranteed second year. Bradley is likely to miss spring training as he recovers from ACL surgery, and should share time in the field and at DH with Raul Ibanez.
- Make Jose Vidro a utility bat. Use him occasional at DH, 1B, but primarily as a pinch hitter.

The Lineup versus RHP/LHP
1. Ichiro/Ichiro
2. Roberts/Bradley
3. Beltre/Beltre
4. Ibanez/Johjima
5. Johjima/Ibanez
6. Jenkins/Sexson
7. Sexson/Roberts
8. Betancourt/Betancourt
9. Bradley/Vidro (in for Jenkins or Ibanez at DH)

Starting Rotation
1. Felix Hernandez, RH
2. Erik Bedard, LH
3. Miguel Batista, RH
4. Jarrod Washburn, LH
5. Hiroki Kuroda, RH

Bullpen
1. J.J. Putz, CL
2. Mark Lowe, RH
3. George Sherrill, LH
4. Sean Green, RH
5. Ryan Rowland-Smith, LH
6. Kameron Mickolio, RH

The farm system would still have Balentien or Morrow (though technically not a prospect), Clement, Tillman and Triunfel, with Butler, Aumont and Ramirez rounding out a very solid top seven.

That’s a roster that, if reasonably healthy, could compete with the big boys. They’d still have areas to improve, and if Lowe wasn’t healthy they’d be in the market for a legit setup man, but that’s a good looking roster right there, and while it’s absolute best-case based, you have to believe that if they are indeed willing to move some of the prospects for impact players, that they’ll be able to work a deal and give us something to get excited about.

It is becoming more and more apparent that if the Seattle Mariners do not trade first baseman Ben Broussard, that they will non-tender him rather than take on an arbitration salary of what could reach to more than $5 million.

There are rumors that in the M’s talks with the Tampa Bay Rays about right-hander Edwin Jackson, that Broussard could be part of that swap, but Rays scouts claim they have better options for their veteran 1B/DH slot and certainly have no need for an everyday guy either spot.

Reps from rival clubs are getting the notion that if Seattle doesn’t trade Broussard that they will indeed cut him loose.

Adam Jones has arrived in Venezuela to “get some more ABs” and is off to a torrid start, though, as we all should know by now, Winter League stats mean nothing.

Jones is 6-for-11 in three starts, all in center field, which is interesting in itself since Ichiro was indeed re-signed. All six of his hits are singles thus far, but the Mariners wanted Jones to focus on hitting the ball to right field, making consistent contact and working on his base stealing.

He has one steal, has fanned three times and three of his six hits are to center or right field. So far, so good.

Morrow made his third start for Lara, and went another five frames allowing three runs on four hits. He walked three and struck out four.

“He looked fine, regardless of the fact that it was his worst start statistically,” said an AL Central scout. “He’s not as long but he reminds a little bit of Brandon McCarthy early on in Brandon’s career. More velocity, but similar stuff otherwise. Morrow’s slider has some bite. That could be a plus pitch for him down the road.”

Morrow sat 90-92 early on but for the first time began to amp it up in the third and fourth inning.

“His fastball was buzzing there. I had him at 94-97 in the third inning. My only concern with Morrow is his delivery. It’s fine, I don’t see any major flaws, but he isn’t repeating it.”

Jose Lopez and Wladimir Balentien are also down in Venezuela and have been for weeks. Lopez is hitting .318/.340/.477 in 12 games, 10 at second base, two at DH. He has two homers and a double and has drawn two walks to four strikeouts.

Balentien has played the entire season for Lara, getting into 33 games. After starting out 2-for-29, the 23-year-old has been a little bit better the past three weeks, drawing 21 walks and collecting 10 extra-base hits.