It’s been one week since the Mariners inked right-hander Carlos Silva to a ridiculous contract and announced that they were “not done” and still wanted “one more starter.”
In the seven full days since Silva’s press conference where he was awarded the No. 52, even though that has been George Sherrill’s uniform number for the past two-plus seasons, the M’s haven’t done squat.
Normally the lack of money spent or trades made would be a good thing, since the club doesn’t have a great track record of either over the past three years. But it’s difficult to imagine GM Bill Bavasi staying so quiet this winter, when his job is on the line again in 2008.
Being on the hot seat has already proven to mean that it’s a win-now-or-else situation for the front office, and standing pat and hanging onto the club’s farm products isn’t the way to win in 2008.
One executive of an NL club recently let it slip that the Mariners are linked in trade talks with every team his own club has been negotiating with, including the Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants.
Clearly the Twins and Orioles are all about Johan Santana and Erik Bedard, but what are the M’s and Giants talking about? Possibly Richie Sexson or Noah Lowry - or both.
“They’re going to make some more moves, I’d bet anything on it,” said the front office rep. “They have too many seeds planted. I don’t think they are willing to part with enough to get Santana, but Bedard is possible and we think the Mariners are our main competition, judging from what we are being told from everyone we talk to on the other side.”
We pretty much know the M’s will make more moves. But will they be smart moves that don’t ignore 2009 and beyond?
“Considering how much action they (Baltimore) are getting on Bedard, if Seattle was going to give up too much, they would have already done so. I think now that they have the kid and three veteran arms, they can avoid that panic trade.”
Sure, they can. But will they?
“From what our guys are saying, it sure appears that Bill and Bob aren’t into trading Jones, let alone all the talk about their arm (Morrow) or any of the veterans,” said a scout from one of the half-dozen clubs the Mariners have had discussions with since the end of the Winter Meetings. “I know Bob from our days with the White Sox and it sounds like he’s rubbing off on Bill and the rest of their decision makers. He loves the younger talents and if he had his way he’d bet on (keeping and developing) them every time over the big contract guys.”
Another representative from the same club had this to say about the trade market this winter:
“I think the buyers have a good chance to turn this into a buyer’s market for once. Cincinnati, Seattle, Boston and the two New York teams could have caved in the two months since the market opened and none of them have done so. All of them have what it takes to get the pitcher they want, but refuse to get taken in a deal. It’s smart, but can they hold out?
“In the past few years, Seattle hasn’t, but things are different. They believe they already have an above-average roster and having added Silva they aren’t acting out of desperation. If I had to predict, I think the Mets and Reds get those two arms, but at fairly high prices.
“Mets get Santana, but it’s going to cost them both outfielders (Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez) and two of their pitching prospects. I see Cincinnati snagging Bedard if they are willing to go Bailey-Votto-Cueto. Baltimore will have to come down from their demands and have already decided Bedard has very little chance to begin the year in their rotation, no matter what they are saying to the media.”
What else might Seattle be able to do for starting pitching? Here is the next group of interesting arms the M’s can look to obtain, based on the fact that in some form or another, each may be be available this off season:
Scott Olsen, LHP - He is available, but Florida is trying to play the game with clubs inquiring about any of their starters, and feel like they are better off waiting on Olsen. If he has a solid start to the 2008 season, his value skyrockets.
Noah Lowry, LHP - Seems like Sabean prefers to include Lowry in a package deal for a bigger, proven bat rather than the small return he’d bring by himself. Lowry is probably a No. 4 at best in the AL, anyway.
Daniel Cabrera, RHP - Baltimore isn’t shopping the big right-hander, but any assortment of young talent that fills holes for the O’s up the middle would probably pry him away from McPhail.
Edwin Jackson, RHP - Tampa is leaning toward using Jackson out of the pen in ‘08, but they are better off getting one 25-man roster piece in return for him since they have Shields, Garza, Kazmir, Howell and Sonnanstine to round out a strong starting five, and Jackson has never fared well in relief and would cheapen his value should the club look to deal him during the season.
Chris Capuano, LHP - Milwaukee appears to be looking for ready or near-ready answers at catcher, third base, second base or center field in return for Capuano, which might be asking too much. He might be a solid fit in Seattle, but trading Jeff Clement or Adam Jones for a No. 4 starter isn’t happening.
Ian Snell, RHP - If the Pittsburgh Pirates were smart, and they have to be smarter than they were last season with their new GM in place, they’d wait until the Bedard and Santana situations have played themselves out and then see what Snell might bring back. He’s a solid No. 3 and has the stuff to pitch effectively in either league, despite his physical stature.
If the Bucs are shopping Jason Bay, they should be open to shopping Snell as well, though he’s not even arbitration eligible until after the ‘08 season.
Neal Huntington has told teams all winter that left-hander Tom Gorzelanny is pretty much off limits until he can assess his future for another season, but that Snell could be in play if the deal filled three holes, including center field or shortstop.
Anthony Reyes, RHP - St. Louis has indicated that they might be willing to trade their former top prospect, but like everyone else will be asking for a king’s ransom. Reyes has No. 2 stuff and decent command, but has struggled with consistency and has been up and down with his velocity, despite the denial that he’s been hurt.
Most scouts believe he can pitch in the American League, but he’ll need to re-establish his fastball down in the zone to keep the home run totals down. He gave up 16 in just over 100 innings in 2007 and has surrendered 35 in 206 career innings.
“His fastball is just too straight right now,” said one scout. “He got away with that in the minors because he was showing better command and he could win with his offspeed stuff. And I’m not so sure he has future success in a rotation anywhere; if Duncan can’t get it from him, who can?”
Mel Stottlemyre?
Depending on what it takes, of course, I’d love to see Reyes in Mariners uniform. He’s a horse, a smart pitcher with a strong work ethic, he’s still just 26 and sat 90-94 with his four-seamer. A new voice and new ideas can always be the difference for ballplayers, and Reyes has good enough stuff to be the M’s version of Mets southpaw Oliver Perez.
For 2008 he’s just a project with upside, but when the competition is an unreliable Cha Seung Baek, a not-quite-ready Ryan Feierabend, the terrible-to-atrocious Horacio Ramirez and three relievers (Morrow, Sean White, Ryan Rowland-Smith), Reyes sure sounds like a good idea.
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That’s awesome news about Fontaine’s philosophy of valuing prospects over expensive veterans rubbing off on the other decision makers in the M’s FO.
Jason,
This is a very good list of alternatives to Bedard that would not cost Seattle the future.
Florida needs a backup CF in the event Maybin is not quite ready, they have a hole at 3B, they are still not quite sure at C, and could use more “about ready” SP depth. Do you think it would take Jones, Morrow, or Clement to get Scott Olsen, or do you think they might bite on something like a package of Jeremy Reed (CF), Mike Morse (3B), Rob Johnson (C), and Baek or Fierabend?
Along the same lines, Baltimore needs a big bat (Balentein?), long relief (Huber or ?), and SP/RP versatility (Baek). Is that enough to land Cabrera?
I like the possibilities with Reyes, too, but I’m not sure we have a potential trade match there. What do you think might be a viable package there?
I know this is all speculation, but I suppose some of the angst around the “what’s a reasonable package” question comes from trades that sent Moyer away for nothing, and saw a top tier relief pitcher (Soriano) be sent to Atlanta for their #6 or #7 starter (Ramirez) who some thought was going to be released by Atlanta. So a “reasonable package in trade” takes on much more meaning in Seattle at the moment.
Re: Cabrera
Yeah, I’d think it might be, rick, but it depends heavily on what other clubs are willing to give up, too.
I would again try and get Roberts tossed into the deal for Seattle, which would make me much more willing to include another top-tier talent.
Re: Reyes
I can’t imagine STL would demand a whole lot for him, but again, that’ll depend on what another club is willing to part with.
I’d guess Wlad + an arm would be enough. Remember, when trading FOR pitching, you end up overpaying…
A reasonable package is different for every team, because each club’s needs and strengths are different.
Bailey-Votto-Cueto might be reasonable to Cincy, but Seattle’s equivalent - Wlad-Morrow-Tillman - is not.
I still the Reds making the mistake on Bedard. Any deal they make that includes Bailey or Bruce (they won’t deal Bruce) is a mistake, no matter who else is involved.
Bailey is almost certain, barring injury, to be more valuable (performance+salary+development) than Bedard within the two years he’d be guaranteed to be there.
And no team should be going after Bedard that isn’t thinking that an extension is not only possible, but necessary as well.
Speaking theoretically ofcourse - one wonders what the Twins are asking of Seattle IF we are still in it and apparently not wanting to give into their trade requests. Assuming he would even accept a trade here and do an extension - what are they asking for? I think most of us would be more than willing to deal both Jones/Morrow for him and not really look back if we have Johan for 7 years. Are we 1 piece away from winning? obviously not. Are Morrow/Jones cornerstones to our success that can’t be replaced? Again - NO. Santana would effectively replace Morrow and Jones while a great talent - could be replaced - Wlad is pegged to hit higher by most anyways. I’m sure they are including more - i’d throw in Clement if it sealed the deal. I am of the opinion Clement has no spot on our team with kenji in the fold so he is a valable trade piece. If it gets you Johan then send him off and do a little dance of joy like Balki.
I think the Twins are just using the M’s as a way to get what they want from NYY, NYM or Boston, because there’s no way Johan agrees to a trade to Seattle, for one, and there’s no way he agrees to an extension, which would be 100% necessary if Jones and company are going to Minnesota.
So I have no idea why people keep saying they are “in it.”
They aren’t.
Assuming the M’s can land one o the second-tier available SPs like Lowry or Olsen, does that mean Morrow becomes expendable? Would the M’s consider Felix/Batista/Washburn/Silva/Lowry a solid starting 5 and forget about tinkering with the rotation until 2010 when Batista and Wash are gone and Tillman/Butler/Aumont/Ramirez are knocking at the door?
I don’t think they like the idea of letting someone else turn their “near-ready” flamethrower into a star when that’s exactly what they need themselves.
In order to be a legit contender in 2008, though, the Mariners need more than just Erik Bedard.
Adding Bedard would help immensely, but I’d still bet on the Angels, who aren’t done wheeling and dealing themselves, to win the west unless the Mariners fix their offense.
That lineup has a chance to be really, really bad. There is a chance that Sexson is still far below average, Raul stinks for more of the year than he did this year, Lopez still sucks at the plate and the rest of the group simply do about what they did in 2007…
If that happened, the M’s would be lucky to win 85 games.
They need to three new bats. One can be made up by a much-improved Lopez, but 1B and DH has to get better and the incumbents aren’t capable of being good enough to get it done.
Nice writeup Jason. Good read since its been deafeningly quiet recently.
Yeah.
And yet, I’m still worried, even after all the right things are being said and done that would make one believe they aren’t going to be stupid when it comes to selling the farm.
Jason,
I agree that the M’s need to improve the offense, but do they? Have you heard? Are they planning to address the offense?
I agree with building the farm system but in the end people dont pay to hear about a good farm system and prospects who are coming they pay to see the Mariners win!I remember when Gillick had Blackley ,Nagoette Rett Johnson and Mads and Thorton and The Space Needle and he wouldnt trade them and we where allways one pitcher away.Well where are these guys now?Needle bad arm never pitched in ML.Nageotte no ml success,Rett Johnson got the thing retired and has never been heard from again,Mads moderate success before blowout,Thorton has been OK with another club he sucked here and Blackley hasnt done a thing.So all im saying is that we keep hoping for good things for cheap why not trade for a proven guy sure some times you mess up Varitek,Lowe ,Poppy etc but there is a art to knowing who to trade and who to hold on to and im afraid Bumbling Bill doesnt have a clue who can and who cant play.I believe in a mix of vets and kids but until we change GMS we havent a shot boys and girls!
#11
Thing is that we haven’t had a good farm system for a long time and the minute you start building one is not the time to give it away.
Concerning Gillick: He didn’t trade AT ALL. Not just prospects.
BTW. Use your god forsaken spacebar. Its there for a reason.
I’m guessing Morrows last few starts down South didn’t go so well- IF they aren’t putting in print how excited they are with his results?
Unless they trade for Bedard or a young/hot prospect pitcher like Morrow but maybe a year ahead - i’d prefer they just didn’t do anything. My point being - either get a #1 type guy or someone who costs nothing against the salary incase they flop - that way we can move in another direction a year later. What scares the crap out of me is that we trade for or sign someone average like Silva/Wash/Batista and are thus done with our rotation moves for years to come. It would force us to trade a guy which they don’t like to do. I think we all share the fear sentiment - either make the right move or don’t make any move at all.
Jason,
On the other post, you slammed down my idea of getting Brian Roberts but now you are opening the door on trying to get him.
Why the change in thinking?
I would love to add any of the jackson, olsen, cabrera, reyes four some to the rotation, as long as it doesn’t cost us any of the big 3 (or tillman for that matter).
And Jason i agree 100% percent with your assesment in post #7. The offense as it stands today, could possibly, and more then likely be godawful. Drastic change is needed to improve the offense in pivital power spots i.e. 1b and DH. I don’t think the offense gets better until next offseason (unless the F.O. pulls their heads out of the sand, and starts making some smart decisions) when bats such as miguel cabrera, and mark teixeira will be available via free agency, and possibly Ken Griffey Jr. via trade. Adding (though highly unlikely) two left handed bats such as Teixeira and Griff could give the M’s offense the face lift it so desperately needs.
Jason #7
You’re talking about Sexson and Vidro not being good enough in 08’ and their contracts make them almost untradeable so we’re probably stuck with them. They will need to resign Johjima and Ibanez and move Ibanez to DH for the 09’ season and find a LH bat for a corner OF position and a LH bat for 1B. Since the M’s are going to need to find 7-8 places on the 40 man roster next December and have more RP’s than they need with more on the way, your idea to go after one more SP this year in a trade is a very good one and is a perfect fit for the situation that the M’s are in. The Bedard trade never made any sense to me, even less after signing Silva, since they are still stuck with Sexson and Vidro this year. Picking up any one of these SP’s you listed would work and you really have a full year to do it in. It would be nice to have one more SP this season but it’s not absolutely necessary. You also have a full year to find a LH bat for a corner OF position and a LH bat for 1B. They will have enough money coming off the books next year where they could also add an expensive FA. I still see at least two trades coming this year just like you predicted.
I’ve never slammed the idea of adding Roberts. Ever. I was the first I ever read, including Dave at USSM, to ever post that I liked the idea.
Perhaps I was slamming the manner in which he was going to be acquired, or simply saying there is no way Seattle actually goes after him if they feel the way they seem to feel about the HGH/Roid issue.
Al,
I don’t think the Mariners “need” to re-sign Ibanez. They might do it, because they are inexplicably basing their decisions, still, on the wrong things, but they don’t need to do it by any means.
Shem,
I haven’t heard any specifics of late. They had lukewarm interest in Jenkins until he signed.
Improving the offense largely involves trading Sexson first.
That’s going to take time, if it ever gets done. But it is possible, and without paying an extraordinary amount of his salary.
Sharp,
Morrow’s been about the same in every start down there. I don’t think they are avoiding comments on it.
Might just be coincidence that they haven’t said anything, but I haven’t read a whole lot on their thoughts anyway, since neither Bill, Bob, nor Mac has been down there to see him pitch.
Speaking of Morrow pitching in the winter league, Sean White appears to still be exceeding expectations down there. Pretty good numbers.
And has anyone noticed that Justin Lehr, whom we did not call up last year from AAA after going 7-1, 3.99 (and then released), is now 8-1, 2.86, with 1.16 WHIP in winter league? I think Cincinatti picked him up. He’s 30, but still…I thought we needed pitching.
Of course, we also previously let LH-hitting Greg Dobbs go for nothing (started at 1B/3B for Philadelphia, .272/.330), and traded Jamie Moyer for nothing (starting and winning for Philadelphia), and gave away Asdrabul Cabrera to Cleveland (switch-hitting starting 2B .283/.354); and released young LHP Bobby Livingston (24, 6′3″ LHP went 3-3 with Cincy this year); and released Yorman Bazardo (somehow fit into the Tigers strong rotatation, going 2-1, 2.28), and let 6′6″ LHP Matt Thornton go to the White Sox for nothing; and got nothing at all for Randy Winn to SF; and gave away Freddie Garcia at the top of his game for utility players; and, of course, gave away Carlos Guillen for nothing. Not to mention the last great move, Soriano for Ramirez.
And people wonder why we are worried about the next great M’s player move!
Rick
How could you possibly miss the great return we got on Broussard? And I’m sure there are still more and we should be scared shitless as they must make more trades during the next year or just flush money down the toilet for nothing by not moving the excess inventory. I just don’t understand how people who are so bad at their jobs and continually lose money for the M’s can keep getting paychecks. These players are inventory and it’s necessary to have someone who can make trades and knows how to work the inventory properly. The people doing this for the M’s don’t even have a clue about what they are doing.
I think any deal with SF that involved Lowry and Sexson would be advantageous for the Mariners even though Lowry may not be your dream acquisition for 2007, provided AJ, Morrow, Clement, or any AA or below prospect is not involved.
I’m big on Morrow as a starter and believe all this management-is-screwing-him-up garbage is just that. He’ll be a #2 or #3 for the M’s in a year with Silva getting the other slot.
That means all they’ll need is MOTR or BOR guys, anyway. With Tillman leading the next wave of prospects into Safeco come 2009.
How would you rate this guys grades for M’s prosepcts?
http://www.minorleagueball.com/
It must’ve been far too quiet for Shane Monahan…..
John Sickels is great and has been rating players for years. Great writing and good analysis.
He nailed Lo and Rohrbaugh ;)
Personally I think the M’s should stand-pat as far as this off-season is concerned. There’s just no way for this team to improve enough to overtake the Angels, and certainly not the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Indians, and probably the Twins to boot.
Instead the M’s should focus on maintaining their core of young players (So far so good? *knock on wood*) and when they drop out of contention (hopefully sooner then last year) trading off extranious contracts like Johjima, Ibanez, Sexson, Balentien, Lopez, Washburn, Batista, Sherrill… Basically anyone with any value or expiring contracts.
Then with a relatively fresh slate I’d hammer out a contract extension with Beltre (4 years and 56M might do it) and Johjima (or pursue him in free agency if traded) both are known quantities at vital positions and both are valuable contributors.
2009’s free agent crop looks far more promising then this years picked bones, and with 30M+/- to work with the M’s should go hard after guys like Teixiera, Crawford, ManRam, Griffey, Baldelli, Chipper Jones, and Vladi to fill their holes at 1B, DH and LF.
Pitching is probably going to be an internal affair as the Mariners will FINALLY have some decent talent major-league ready, and the free agents available are all either retreads, major health risks, or behemoth contracts.
Re 25:
I’m not sure I completely agree with those grades. Mangini is a better prospect than Rohrbaugh but they both get a C+? It doesn’t seem right to me.
Rohr has made it to AAA despite lack of awesome stuff and Mangini is still an A ball guy. If Mangini produces at AA and above, then I would expect his grade to surpass Rohr easily.
#29
There’s plenty the M’s can do to improve their team this year, it’s just not the type pf thing they typically do. Trading some spare parts, Lopez and Johnson maybe, for a guy like Jackson gives you a decent back-end starter this year with the potential to become a solid starter down the road, while not costing you very much. There are always low cost moves to be made that can make you better now, but also provide flexibility in the future. These are, unfortunately, not the types of moves the M’s usually make.
Re 31:
At the same time, Rohr has had more time and I think Mangini already has more upside, assuming he hits for some power. Thats why I would rate him higher.
Rohr has done really well for a seventh rounder with his kind of stuff. I hope to see him in the bigs helping out soon.
That’s what you are supposed to be doing with spects, though- projecting them. So if Sickels has Mangini a C+ now, and he changes him next year, he was wrong about him THIS year.
Giving letter grades is stupid anyway.
Jason,
Speaking of rankings, are you going to post a top prospect list for the M’s before spring training?
Eh, kinda.
I’m writing another handbook instead. I hope to have that ready well before spring training and I’m aiming at making that available digitally for instant download.
Adam B.,
I agree with your general point that the M’s should be looking towards the future, but I don’t get a lot of the details of your argument.
How are Balentien and Lopez ‘extranious contracts’. Both players are young and under team control. A rebuilding club shouldn’t move guys like them. They are building blocks. Sherrill also isn’t the type of guy that you dump, as he has a ton of trade value. Who knows, perhaps some contending club offers a killer prospect for him at the deadline, but I wouldn’t be looking to move him unless it was in exchange for a really good player.
I totally agree with you on Washburn, Batista, Ibanez, and Johjima, though. And Sexson, with half his salary paid and perhaps a big bounceback in the first half, could have some trade value. Hopefully some of the upper level pitching prospects like Feierabend, Rohrbaugh, Tillman, or Baek make them expendable.
Another problem is your list of players that will be available after 2009. Most of the guys you list, like Carl Crawford, Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey Jr, Rocco Baldelli, Vladimir Guerrero, and Chipper Jones have team options, and all but Manny and Junior are no-brainers. Most of those guys won’t make it to free agency, and it is probable that none will be available.
The guys who are likely to make it to free agency are Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Bobby Abreu. A far less interesting list. Mark Teixeira is the one who is a complete lock to hit free agency.
The pitchers are better, with guys like Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Oliver Perez, AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe, Mark Prior, and Ben Sheets all possibilities. Of those guys, Sabathia and Sheets will be tough for the Indians and Brewers to resign, especially if they come off big seasons. Plus, guys like Prior and Burnett could be on the market with big seasons.
As always, these lists will be whittled down by next offseason.
Again, I agree with your overall point that the M’s should sit tight, and make some big moves next offseason. Since the Angels are a MUCH better club than the M’s as it currently stands, hopefully the M’s can take advantage of the opportunity to move guys like Washburn, Batista, Ibanez, and Johjima, since all could potentially land the M’s some good young players.
Jason,
That is sweet. I am not in the US for the next year, so online materials are great. I look forward to getting a copy.
Jason,
Good article. I have long thought that Pittsburgh could be a good trading partner. I like the idea of trying to obtain either Olsen or Snell, since their cost would not be as great as Bedard.
I think Bedard instantly upgrades the rotation, but he is far from the only piece needed and I hate the thought of losing Jones or Morrow. I am pretty much of the same mindset when it comes to Santana, but picking up a pitcher of his stature only comes along once in awhile. However, I also agree that we are merely a stalking horse in those negotiations.
Who do you think it would take to get Snell? Could a package that includes Reed, Navarro and Wlad enough?
I doubt Navarro has much, if any, trade value. Snell would actually be pretty spendy I think. I would certainly think one of our young pitchers would be a necessary starting point (Morrow, Tillman, Butler).
No, pitching is at its highest premium ever and while Wlad would certainly have value to Pittsburgh, the Mariners would probably have to include Tillman and Johnson in that deal, too.
Reed has very little value. Navarro has less than zero value.
The problem with the above young pitchers in trade talks with the M’s is that all those players are young and cheap. The M’s front office just isn’t in a mindset right now to be going after those types of guys. Unfortunately, the M’s are really stupid right now, and are more likely to be looking at veterans in a trade. I just don’t see them persuing young starters whose values are currently low, and hoping for a turnaround. The M’s see themselves as contenders. If they make a move, it would likely be someone who is a ’sure thing.’ Unfortunately, in this case, ’sure thing’ most likley equals ‘mediocre.’
I know that it is really early for extreme pessimism, but here is my best-case scenario as it stands right now:
Right Now:
-M’s have a quiet offseason, perhaps adding Tony Clark and someone like Freddy Garcia or Matt Clement for rotation depth. Clark is a great idea because he provides a good bat off the bench, leadership in the clubhouse, and depth at DH and 1b. Most importantly, getting him playing time at DH helps keep Vidro’s option from vesting.
Next Spring:
-the M’s stumble out the gate, and quickly fall behind the Angels in the standings. At this point, I am actually rooting for the Angels to win more than 95 games. They can beat up on bad teams in the division, and should rack up wins with their team. By July, I actually hope that the M’s are 10 games back or so.
Mid-Season:
-recognizing their position as sellers, the M’s take advantage of their situation and trade Johjima, Sexson, Batista, Washburn, and Ibanez. If Batista and Washburn are pitching to their normal levels of production, both will have value. If Ibanez is healthy, he could also net the M’s good, ML-ready talent. Players like Jeff Clement, Wlad, Rohrbaugh, Feierabend, Baek, and Chen get a look late season.
At this point, guys like Olsen, Reyes, etc would be real options in a trade, but with the M’s sending veterans in exchange for undervalued arms.
Late 2008:
-The M’s finish the season just below .500. Perhaps 79-83. That does two things: First, it gets Bavasi fired. Second, it gives the M’s a protected draft pick.
Next offseason:
-the M’s get wise and hire a good GM. Chris Antonetti is the guy that everyone talks about, and he would be sweet. I would love to see an import from Boston, like Asst GM Jed Hoyer or VP Ben Cherington. Perhaps the M’s could even land a big-name.
-Then, the M’s go into the offseason with a huge wad of $$$ (with Batista and Washburn traded, plus Sexson, Ibanez, and Vidro off the books, the M’s would nearly 50 mil to spend). With their new GM, a core of Ichiro, Putz, and Felix, and solid young players in Jones, Clement, Wlad, and the bullpen, the M’s would be positioned to make some major signings. I would throw money at Mark Teixeira plus one of the best starters on the market.
It sucks to have the best case scenario be a bad season. But this club won’t function properly until they get a new GM, and one more losing season would be good in the long term.
Jerry,
I like your analysis, although I think if the M’s wait on trading for the young pitchers on Jason’s list, most will be no longer available (they turned it around) or no longer thought to be able to turn it around. If the M’s were thinking long-term and were more realistic about thier ‘08 team (I agree with Jason…the offense has holes as big as the pitching), they would be more likely to take a few gambles on young guys with high upsides (and not have to trade the farm to do it).
Teixeira would be a perfect pick-up for the M’s as an ‘08 free agent…I just don’t think he’d be interested. I remember reading somewhere he was hoping to land on the East Coast.
I also agree that guys like Batista, Washburn, Sexson, Vidro, and Ibanez should go for prospects at the trade deadline in ‘08 if we are 8-10 games (or more) out. In fact, I think we may have waited a year too long on Ibanez (better to trade an aging vet a year too early than a year too late), as much as I like him as a Mariner (defense notwithstanding). Same might be said for Washburn, because he’ll never have higher value than he does right now with this weak pitching market. Think of the prospects he might bring! Of course, then you have to assume the M’s would get top/best value in a trade for him, and there’s sufficient reason to believe that would NOT happen.
Finally, your 79-83 prediction. It would not surprise me. But I do think Lopez is going to show improvement, but I think Jones will be only OK (not Guillen numbers) in his first full year; I think Beltre is now comfortable and will maintain or improve slightly, as will Sexson (but not as much as McClaren hopes); and I actually think the Silva signing (contract size as astounding as it is) will help us by 2-3 games. But we still won’t show any plate discipline, still won’t move runners over and in, still won’t have much power or speed. So, all-in-all, I might reverse your numbers and say 83-79, down a bit from last year.
Ben Cherryington,Jed Hoyer i guess since Boston won these guys are good are is that just more of Gammons Ivy League east coast bullshit? How about putting someone on there who at least has rode a bus and struggled as a player? There are some explayers who are very smart and street wise dont you think? Towers,Gillick,Melvin,Beene i think those guys are pretty good myself.
What about trading for Bay and Ian Snell from Pittsburgh? We could give them Clement and Morrow plus maybe 2 other prospects and still be fine, while upgrading the offense and pitching. Plus Bay is from the Seattle area, and I see him rebounding this year. Snell, although small in stature would be a reliable number 2 or 3 guy in our rotation.
Hoyer is very highly thought of…
Geez……Jerry, you and those who think like you aren’t fans, as much as you are egotists. You place your own beliefs, before the good of the team you’re suppose to support.
Sorry, I find ANYONE who wishes losing on the team they support to be only fans of their opinions, never of their team.
Blindly rooting for a team that is setting itself up year after year to be mediocre inspires drastic remedial ideas in many of the more informed fans.
One year of losing that could possibly set up many years of success isn’t too bad a trade off. Or would you rather the team continue to poorly allocate resources so they can field the infamous “competitive” team?
42 - Is it really all the GM’s fault? As much as I disagree with many of the moves Bavasi has made I gotta say it seems that some of the issues go beyond Bavasi, at least in my opinion.
Also what kind of fan of a team wishes failure upon the team they say they root for, and success for their division rivals?
In response the fans/egotists line. Very extreme. And I wouldn’t presume to call anyone I didn’t know first hand an egotist or any other such harsh term to be honest.
Little too personal there bud.
I think (my interpretation) Jerry is simply saying that it’s important to think long-term, and that it’s also important to make decisions based on a realistic view of your own team and of your competition. Based on the analysis, you make different decisions under different circumstances.
In addition, between the lines his comments suggest that (in his opinion) only if reality hits current team upper-management in the face will they make the decisions that are good long-term decisions.
I certainly don’t “wish” the team to lose. But I like Jerry’s analysis. I think the M’s are likely to lose (or to be just mediocre) if wrong decisions are made based on overly-rosey outlooks about our strengths and weaknesses. In that context, I think Jerry’s analysis is thoughtful and a valid viewpoint.
To me, it sounds good to hear that Bill might be listening to Bob more. I am just not buying that it will really improve the teams trading ability that much. When did this listening start, after the Broussard trade? This does at least mean that Bills less likely to move prospects, but not entirely unlikely.
If I am seeing correctly, that Bill just can’t get making a good trade, then somethings got to change. I assume that the team is not going to get rid of him as long as the team wins. If that is correct, then the worst thing to happen to the team this offseason is winning last year. The worst thing to happen in 2009 could be winning in 2008. Bavasi (or anyone else) continuing to make moves this horrible is bad for the team they make the moves “on behalf of.”
If someone says that they’d rather watch their team lose than continue to lose value in trades every time, I’d say their dedication shows greatly by the attitude. Everyone who roots for a team wants that team to win. That’s what rooting is. Willingness to sacrifice one season of the possibility in order to potentially have a better chance of watching them win in future years is understanding and very understandable.
best case- howard lincoln wakes up on newyears day and thinks…what the hell am i doing,being in charge of a major league baseball team ?? i don’t know crap about baseball.he fires himself,and bavasi. ownership then hires real baseball people and we’re off and runnin.
ok…that won’t happen.
like they say, u can pee in one hand and make wishes with the other…then see which one fills up faster.
but to root for your team to lose…
can’t do that. man that’s cold!
Jason,
There hasn’t been enough talk on Kenta Suda for my tastes. What do you think of him just based on what you know right now and do you think more Japanese players will go the same route he did to become major league hopefuls?
You miss the point. There is rooting for the team to win NOW (Hope you agree with FO’s present philosophies, because if they win those are the philosophies that will be here next year, etc.)
And there is rooting for the team to win MORE OFTEN (because giving away talent in trades that far exceed the return repetitiously should make it easy for your replacement to be better and therefore IMPROVE the WIN TOTAL for YEARS TO COME)
Make it easier, not easy…
I think that egotist line is a bit too extreme, too. It’s okay to disagree but to throw in some name calling? Come on!!!
I am also of the opinion that the M’s should be looking long term and I think a wake up call should be in order. I am getting tired of these patch work moves that the M’s keep making because they haven’t been working! The recent Silva signing has me rolling my eyes, taking a deep breath and saying “here we go again!”
In addition, I am weary of these trade rumors.
There is a lot of proof out there to suggest that building from within is the way to go. Look at the Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Twins. There has been a lot of success from within. If that doesn’t convince anyone, how about the Braves who ruled the roost for 16 years? That was mainly from within!
Sure, the M’s would lose at first if they tried building from within but then they could succeed because they have the resources to keep guys around and bring in guys as needed.
The problem, as we perceive it as fans, is the M’s want to stay competitive enough to keep people coming to the park. That is how they can maximize profit without a maximum payroll. If the team makes the playoffs, great, if they dont, oh well there is always next year. Baseball is a business to these people, not just a game.
We as fans want our team to win every year and that involves spending a lot of money to stay at the top. The teams that stay at the top consistantly are those teams with the highest payrolls in the league.
This is why the M’s wont do a tear down and rebuild from scratch (the Indians did that and while they have a better team now, they are drawing less fans and have a lower profit margin).
Teams that have fans as owners will tend to follow the ‘win at all costs’ mentality because they are like many of us, get the best players regardless of cost (example: Steinbrenner).
A build from within approach while staying competitive has to be the hardest way to win games because of the difficulties of recycling players every year and working around big FA contracts. With that being said, the M’s ownership isnt as concerned with wins and losses, but winning at the register which the M’s have been very good at.
It’s not a zero sum game, though. You can keep people coming to the park *and* build a consistent winner. It’s just harder doing both at the same time than to do either alone, which is why great GMs are so valuable (along with an ownership/management team that lets the GM do his job).
Plus, getting more performance for your dollar is good for the bottom line. If you can get the same output from an Adam Jones for league minimum vs Jose Guillen at $8-$10 milion, that’s a huge savings.
Another thing is, the bottom line can be affected by so many other things. Cleveland, for example, isn’t exactly a booming economy. Sometimes profit margins are half good management and half good fortune at being in a city that has disposable income to spend on baseball.
All that said, I think the M’s might be in OK shape if Fontaine truly has Bavasi’s ear. With the young talent that’s finally coming to the ML level, or close to it, things might work out in spite of ownership’s resistance to a true rebuilding process.
Nice piece Jason.
“I know Bob from our days with the White Sox and it sounds like he’s rubbing off on Bill and the rest of their decision makers.”
I know from you that Fontaine is Bavasi’s man, so I was a bit surprised to read that quote. It seems to suggest that Bavasi was not listening to Fontaine in the past - which seems out of character from what you have said about Bavasi trusting the people around him.
Or was the meat of that quote referring to “rest of their decision makers” part?
Wishhiker, you said in #52
If I am seeing correctly, that Bill just can’t get making a good trade, then somethings got to change. I assume that the team is not going to get rid of him as long as the team wins. If that is correct, then the worst thing to happen to the team this offseason is winning last year. The worst thing to happen in 2009 could be winning in 2008. Bavasi (or anyone else) continuing to make moves this horrible is bad for the team they make the moves “on behalf of.”
If I reading that comment correctly, if the M’s are winning and win in 2009 also, wouldn’t it mean that Bavasi is making the right trades?
Just an observation.
I meant to say some right trades.
BTW everyone, Happy New Year!
lfglove,
No, it wouldn’t necessarily mean he made the right trades.
Do you think Soriano-for-Ramirez was the right trade? Do you think Snelling-Fruto for Vidro was the right trade?
Because those are the two deals he made last winter, the winter between a losing seasons and a winning season.
Soriano for Ramirez was bad and stupid, no arguement there. As far as Doyle/Fruto for Vidro, I think the price was too high. But Vidro did help the team more than either one ever has. I think he could have gotten someone better.
As much as I like Doyle, he just wasn’t getting it done due to being injured all the time.
FYI, I’m not a Bavasi apologist, but you have to give him some credit. Guillen, Joh, Beltre, Yubet. All good pieces.
Just because Vidro helped more than Snelling-Fruto ever had doesn’t make it a good trade.
At all.
Yubet was more international scouting than Bavasi, wasn’t it?
Soriano for H. Ramirez was an astounding trade. No one in baseball could believe it! Ramirez was rumored to be let go by Atlanta, and we gave a top flight pitcher with electric stuff, and didn’t even get a low-level prospect thrown in. It makes you wonder if some of these deals aren’t made while hanging out late at a local bar!
On the other hand, I think Viro for Snelling/Fruto was a good trade. Vidro, without speed, power, or position, still was our most patient hitter, moved guys over, made pitchers work, got key hits, took a walk now and then…everything the rest of the team didn’t seem to know how to do. A professional hitter. Snelling and Fruto used to be hot properties, but never put it together for one reason or another (and may I also say got pretty big and puffy). I’m just guessing, but I’d say there might be more to that trade than meets the eye.