Until about three hours ago (it’s 4:30 AM on Friday, December 21 right now), I was simply going to post my proposed 25-man Seattle Mariners roster for 2008, with some mildly in-depth analysis attached.
But after reading the Seattle P-I this morning, I have so much more I want to bring up and talk about. And you can thank Howard Lincoln and Bill Bavasi for that. So if you can’t stand it when I ramble on and rip the front office, write them a letter, not me.
First, here’s my proposed roster for 2008, and it does not include any recommended trades or further free-agent acquisitions. The idea here is to re-position the 25-man with the right available players, and to use them in the right places. And I’m not just talking about who should play left field and who should DH.
Below the table, I’ll explain what I did with the roster and why I did it… and then some.
*Stats below are a loose projection for ‘08 and present solely for general purposes, not an actual prediction or formulated projection of any kind.
| Regular Lineup (not the batting order) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Pos. | PLAYER | G | AVG | OBP | SLG | ‘08 $ | |||||||||||||
| 1B | Richie Sexson | 135 | .240 | .325 | .450 | 14.00 | |||||||||||||
| 2B | Jose Lopez | 145 | .270 | .310 | .425 | .500 | |||||||||||||
| 3B | Adrian Beltre |
155 | .285 | .330 | .500 | 12.00 | |||||||||||||
| SS | Yuniesky Betancourt |
155 | .285 | .310 | .420 | 1.25 | |||||||||||||
| C | Kenji Johjima |
135 | .280 | .320 | .450 | 5.20 | |||||||||||||
| DH | Raul Ibanez | 145 | .275 | .330 | .450 | 5.50 | |||||||||||||
| LF | Adam Jones |
150 | .255 | .300 | .420 | .400 | |||||||||||||
| CF | Ichiro | 155 | .340 | .390 | .430 | 17.00 | |||||||||||||
| RF | Wladimir Balentien |
140 | .250 | .310 | .430 | .400 | |||||||||||||
| Bench | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Willie Bloomquist |
60 | .250 | .290 | .320 | .950 | |||||||||||||
| 15 | Jamie Burke | 50 | .275 | .325 | .390 | .500 | |||||||||||||
| 9 | Yung Chi Chen |
50 | .260 | .310 | .385 | .400 | |||||||||||||
| 32 | Jose Vidro |
90 | .275 | .335 | .385 | 8.50 | |||||||||||||
| 32 | Charleton Jimerson |
50 | .240 | .280 | .400 | .400 | |||||||||||||
| Starting Rotation | |||||||||||||||||||
| Pos. | PITCHER | G/GS | IP | ERA | K | ‘08 $ | |||||||||||||
| 29 | Felix Hernandez |
33/33 | 220 | 3.50 | 200 | .600 | |||||||||||||
| 5 | Carlos Silva |
34/34 | 210 | 4.40 | 100 | 12.00 | |||||||||||||
| 16 | Miguel Batista |
32/32 | 200 | 4.30 | 140 | 9.00 | |||||||||||||
| 64 | Jarrod Washburn |
32/32 | 195 | 4.50 | 120 | 10.00 | |||||||||||||
| 23 | Sean White |
30/20 | 135 | 4.75 | 70 | .400 | |||||||||||||
| Bullpen | |||||||||||||||||||
| 24 | J.J.Putz | 65/0 | 70 | 2.50 | 80 | 3.40 | |||||||||||||
| 50 | Sean Green |
60/0 | 65 | 3.75 | 55 | .400 | |||||||||||||
| 51 | George Sherrill |
55/0 | 45 | 3.00 | 55 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||
| 28 | Mark Lowe |
40/0 | 40 | 3.50 | 40 | .400 | |||||||||||||
| 7 | Kameron Mickolio |
40/0 | 40 | 3.75 | 35 | .400 | |||||||||||||
| 82 | Ryan Rowland-Smith |
35/8 | 80 | 3.75 | 65 | .420 | |||||||||||||
| 12 | Eric O’Flaherty |
55 | 50 | 4.20 | 40 | .420 | |||||||||||||
That’s my 25-man roster as of December 21. Let me address some issues, as I am certain the above roster will raise some questions as to the line of thinking that went into it.
The Outfield
It is imperative that the Mariners start Adam Jones in left field and use Ibanez elsewhere. If that ends up being right field because in all actuality the club will not start both Jones and Balentien, then Ibanez in right isn’t the end of the world. He’ll still hurt the club there, but it’s far better than the damage he’ll do in left.
If Sexson is moved, Ibanez can play first base, at least some, and not be the detriment he is in left field. Thanks to Dave Cameron for first bringing this to the attention of all of us diehards here in Seattle. Until Dave made an issue of the importance of defense in left field at Safeco, nobody was really talking about it. But it’s more than a legitimate issue, and Ibanez should never get any closer to left field than when he rounds third base on one of his 4-baggers.
The club is also better off using Balentien in right over Ibanez and while using two rookies out there is something Bill Bavasi told all of us he wouldn’t do, he would if he was smart enough, and had the gonads, to do it. Even if you assume Wlad’s absolute worst-case scenario at the plate (say, .230/.280/.380), his defensive value over Ibanez in right field makes up the difference between he and Jose Vidro, who would be the odd-man out of the starting lineup.
The Bench and Bullpen
Obviously, you can’t carry five starters, seven relievers and still have a five-man bench. Kudos if you caught that.
Let me explain.
Early in the year it does make some sense to carry seven relievers because the starters, and the bullpen to a lesser extent, continue to stretch their arms out in the colder weather of April and May. I’d carry seven relief arms through the end May, using four reserves up to that point as well.
Then I’d add a bench man, but it wouldn’t be any of the five I listed above… which brings us up to what I would do with Jeff Clement.
The Mariners are probably going to take Clement north with them at the end of March, which is a mistake. He still has a decent chance to turn into a regular catcher (tons of value in that, too), and he should head back to Tacoma to work on that with Rob Johnson and Roger Hansen, and to continue refining his plate skills - even though he’s a big-league ready bat already.
Scouts, and Hansen, have told me more than once that two full years of work is enough, even for a catcher, for a college draftee to have shown whether he can hack it in the show or not, both defensively and with the stick.
Clement has not had two seasons, however. He had six weeks in 2005, an injury and rush-job interrupted 2006 season, and finally a full schedule last season. He’s healthy heading into ‘08 and should be sent back to Tacoma for at least eight weeks to fine-tune until the M’s are ready to give up the seventh reliever and add a position player.
Clement can help Burke, or whoever the veteran ends up being, back up Johjima, giving the club a way to keep Joh from wearing down during the middle three months of the season as he’s done two years in a row now.
On days he isn’t catching, Clement can share the DH spot and first base with Ibanez and Sexson, while Ibanez, in order to keep his lefty bat in versus right-handed pitching, can spell Balentien in right or Sexson at first.
If Kameron Mickolio and Mark Lowe are healthy and without medical restrictions, both begin the year in my bullpen. There is more question with Lowe than Mickolio, but both have a chance to make the decision for Bavasi and McLaren by pitching well in March.
I would keep Rowland-Smith in the bullpen, where he’s best suited, giving McLaren three quality lefties to use, possibly reducing the chances, slightly, that the bullpen is mis-used.
The Rotation
The first four are no-brainers, since Felix Hernandez is the ace-in-the-making and the other three are set to make $31 million this upcoming year, but the fifth spot I give to Sean White.
Cha Seung Baek, Ryan Feierabend, R.A. Dickey, Robert Rohbaugh and Justin Thomas are also candidates, and Dickey is probably the current in-house favorite among the above five and will almost certainly make the club (just not for me), but White is the best combination of stuff, command and durability.
Baek is unreliable due to health concerns with his shoulder, Feierabend needs 30 more starts in the minors, Rohrbaugh has No. 6 stuff and Thomas has not proven he can stay off the disabled list, either.
If White fails miserably, which is possible, Rowland-Smith is right there to gobble up his starts and is capable of putting up No. 5 starter performances. His pen spot could be taken up by a number of arms, including White or Baek.
As you can see, Brandon Morrow is not on the roster, and this is where the P-I piece by John Hickey comes into play.
Bavasi stated yesterday that Morrow is almost certain to be on the 25-man roster to begin 2008, which isn’t a surprise, but invokes the proverbial reach for the barf bag for those who truly understand this game.
“If we add a starter, then he pitches in the bullpen,” Bavasi told the P-I. “If we don’t, then either Brandon or Horacio Ramirez would be the fifth starter. And if it’s Ramirez, Morrow would be at the end of the bullpen.”
The club is apparently still trying to add another starter, and that arm is probably not going to be Erik Bedard because Bavasi isn’t keen on the idea of trading Morrow, let alone Jones and Morrow both.
“He (Morrow) is highly, highly unlikely to leave,” Bavasi said. “I’m not saying he couldn’t be traded, but it’s unlikely.”
This could be posturing, for sure. But the M’s made the mistake with Morrow last year, so it’s not shocking that they’d do it yet again. Morrow is probably going to be mis-used in 2008, just like he was in ‘07.
Whether he starts the season in the rotation or the bullpen, it’s the wrong move and greatly decreases the chance that Morrow ever becomes a quality starting pitcher at the big-league level.
And if you aren’t sure who is actually running this team, check out this quote from Bavasi in the P-I story.
“He’s highly, highly unlikely to start in Triple-A,” Bavasi said. “We don’t feel like that’s going to help us.”
Sure it would, Bill, just not in 2008. And since you are on the hot seat for the rest of your Mariners career, thanks to Howard Lincoln and his idiotic practices of making money first and second, and putting together a good, solid baseball organization with the opportunity for long-term success on the field third.
Here’s one scout’s take on the Mariners’ handling of Morrow - before the P-I story came out early this morning.
“He’s a one-pitch guy right now - plus-plus velocity, but poor command and no second pitch. That’s a great prospect if he’s sitting in A-ball starting every fifth day, working on his offspeed pitches.
“They had no business putting him in the majors. I wouldn’t count on him as a starter this year.”
And just for fun, the same scout said this about the proposed trades for Bedard; Cincy apparently offering Homer Bailey, Joey Votto and Josh Hamilton versus Seattle’s Jones, Morrow and Clement.
“I’d take the Seattle deal because of Jones. I like the Cincy deal’s 2-3 (pieces) better, but Adam Jones is going to be special. That deal would make the M’s better in 2008, but by 2010 they’d regret it in a huge way. ”
Two things in that are very interesting. One, his assessment of Jones. Gotta love seeing talent evaluators outside the organization saying things like that about AJ. I know it makes me feel validated forspeaking so highly of him the past 18 months.
Secondly, the comment about the M’s regretting a deal like that in 2010. This is what I’ve been getting at. Bedard is not the final piece to a potential World Series contending team, and if you are renting him for two years, which is the case since he’s a free agent after 2009, giving up even Jones alone is too much.
Agreed. I’m no longer on the “it might be ok to trade Jones for the right pitcher” bandwagon.
No trade.
Keith Law is the scout who said that about Adam Jones, huh? That’s an exact quote from his ESPN chat yesterday.
Re: Morrow. I’m not reaching for a barf bag, I’m reaching for a gun. I’m just not sure whether I’ll use it on myself or make a visit to Safeco. It’s unbelievable what they are doing to Morrow. They are ruining his career before it even gets started.
What a bunch of idiots. Unbelievable.
I think we can say goodbye to Morrow the starter and welcome Morrow the reliever. Pretty soon, that’s all the M’s will be able to do with him. It’s sad but made easier for me by the prospect of guys like Tillman and company hopefully breaking through in a few years, assuming the M’s don’t misuse them as well.
As for Clement, the idea of taking him north is what makes me want to barf.
I have always been a farm system first kind of guy but what good are prospects if you don’t use them the right way? See Morrow and Clement above.
One more thing, in reference to the package Cincinnati would potentially give to Baltimore for Bedard, I think Homer Bailey could end up being special as well.I wouldn’t be trading him at all. I’d probably regret that in a few years as well.
With the Silva signing, I fear we have reached a certain point of no return. The management is putting all its eggs in the 2008 basket. Which is stupid, but they did it, and we have to live with it. With that, I think they will now do everything possible to get Santana or Bedard.
And to tell the truth, I am not that upset over losing Jones. To tell the truth, I was never his biggest fan, not since he was starting to be compared to Torii Hunter.
If we give up Jones, Morrow and Clement for Santana and maybe some low-tier prospect with upside, I’d do it. Jones is a good CF in 2010, Morrow is a good starter in 2009, Clement is an above-average 1B in 2009. I’d give that up for one great starter in 2008. With Johan, Felix, Washburn, Silva, Batista we have a solid rotation. It’s not great, but it can get us to the post-season.
I also don’t hate Silva. Is he a good pitcher? No, he is decidedly average. He is certainly not worth what he’s being paid. But, it’s the same thing as the Washburn signing, it gives us a pitcher in his prime for a few years, when we don’t have anyone in the minors who can pitch for us in that time-frame with any reliability. If we don’t sign Johan/Bedard, it’s a waste of the 100-mil payroll in 2008, if we do, we might make the playoffs and who knows after that.
Jones, Morrow, and Clement for one year of Santana? Really?
You’d give up 15-18 years of those three players, at a very low cost, for one year of Santana?
Really?
You are so impatient that you can’t wait ONE year for those players to start producing?
Really?
Really?
If you trade for Santana, you also trade for a contract negotiation window so that he isn’t a one year and walk player.
A little OT, but I see the M’s have a new rookie level team in Virginia this year. How does this fit in with the current Arizona rookie level team and the Everett team? Any ideas on who will go where?
1. Santana has a full no-trade clause.
2. He isn’t going to give the Mariners a negotiation window.
3. Trading three of our four top prospects for him isn’t smart.
1. Obviously, he would have to agree to waive the no-trade or this is a moot point.
2. The M’s don’t even make the deal without a trade window. That’s a basic assumption.
3. The issue of who to trade is of course up to debate. What is a true #1 lefty pitcher under the age of 30 worth? Frankly, I would trade Morrow, Clement, Balentien and a bullpen piece. I don’t think I would trade Jones at this point because the M’s can’t afford to lose that part of the OF.
Oh please oh please could we also sign Kyle Lohse to a 4/50M contract?! *shudder*
I really want to like Bavasi, but he makes it a very difficult proposition.
As for potential trades, I actually came away from Bavasi’s Morrow comment with some optimism. Maybe we wont be sending a boatload of prospects to the Orioles for a “rent-an-ace”.
I wouldn’t trade Jones straight-up for Bedard or Santana let alone in a package.
I just hope that by 2009 when Silva is pitching out of the pen as the leagues most expensive long-man, that it isn’t Bavasi who’s deciding to go into the rotation as his replacement.
The think about prospects, and many people get blinded by projections, is that they are prospects. Where are the top-10 prospects in baseball the last 10 years? Half of them, I’d bet, never made the all-star team. Look at Jones, he could be Hunter, 20-30 homers, GG defense … or he could be Mike Cameron … or worse. Look at Morrow, he could be a Josh Beckett … or he could be the next Ryan Christensen. And Clement? If he doesn’t stick at Catcher, he’s not a top prospect. He might be as good as Nick Johnson at 1st, or he might be the next … well, Aubrey Huff, Kevin Millar.
11- Did you mean that Morrow could be the next Ryan Anderson? Christensen was a catcher. Also, you are so right. Counting on your prospects is a terrible way to build a baseball team. Look at the Orioles, they don’t develop their own players, they sign awesome free agents like Palmeiro, Alomar, Tejada, etc. Look at how many times they have won their division.
As for how the top ten prospects from the past ten years? Here are some names from the 2005 list: Joe Mauer, Felix Hernandez, Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, Scott Kazmir. If you could go back and trade Felix, would you? How about if you could go back to 1997, ten years ago? Would you trade a couple of “prospects” for Heathcliff Slocumb?
The bottom line is this, every player was once a prospect. Jones has all the tools to be an all star, he may be and he may not be, but it would stink to see him kick our butt in an Oriole uniform for the next ten years. Hold on to him!!!
Right, Anderson. Which just shows you. He was the next Randy Johnson, the Little Unit, and now I can’t even remember his name correctly.
I would never trade prospects for a reliever, not for Rivera in his prime, not for Gagne during the streak, not for Nathan now. Relievers are too inconsistent.
But would I trade Felix? I would, if Minnesota offered Santana 3 years ago, I would. If San Diego offered Peavy 3 years ago, I would.
And who are the other names from that 2005 list? I genuinly want to know. What about names from the 2000 list, and the 1995 list.
And Orioles are no measuring stick, they have The Yankees and Red Sox in their division who outspend them every year. We don’t have that, we can be the Red Sox to the Angels’ Yankees in our division.
Under Rule 5 doesn’t Dickey have to make the major league roster or get sent back? Do you think this gives him an edge to make the team, ala Sean White of last year?
Seems the M’s are dead set on using either Morrow or Ramirez as the 5th starter unless somebody better comes along (and that likely won’t be Colon or Prior, so I say don’t lock anything else down longterm right now).
So many follies in the organization’s thinking right now.
Looks like Morrow will be mis-used:
“If we add a starter, then Morrow pitches in the bullpen,” Bavasi said. “If we don’t, then either Brandon or Horacio Ramirez would be the fifth starter. And if it’s Ramirez, Morrow would be at the end of the bullpen.”
Counting on your prospects is a terrible way to build a baseball team. Look at the Orioles, they don’t develop their own players, they sign awesome free agents like Palmeiro, Alomar, Tejada, etc. Look at how many times they have won their division.
I hope you realize how contradictory this statement is.
Further, ask the A’s,Indians, D-Backs, Rockies, and even the Red Sox and Yankees what they think about relying on top prospects to build a team. Then ask yourself why those teams have been/are so successful…
Adam, I hope you realize what sarcasm is.
Now, read the rest of my first post. I do not want us to trade our prospects away. The best way to build the team is through a solid farm system. The M’s are in the position they are in because they tried for the quick fix with Free Agents. If they had focused on the farm system there would be a steady stream of talent ready to help the big club now. I personally would rather see us lose for three more years so we can win for the following 10.
Further, ask the A’s,Indians, D-Backs, Rockies, and even the Red Sox and Yankees what they think about relying on top prospects to build a team. Then ask yourself why those teams have been/are so successful…
A’s - they have a shrewd GM, who buys low, sells high. We don’t have that, and we don’t want that, because we can afford not to trade our best players for future players, then trading those best players for even more future players.
D-Backs - Well, let’s see them sustain it for a decade.
Rockies - it’s 1 year.
Red Sox & Yankees …. 200 mil payroll maybe ?
What about the Devil Rays, they are stocked with talent, so where’s the production? And Kansas City? They’ve had top picks for the last decade it seems, where are they? And Minnesota, they’ve had boatloads of talent, what has it given them the last 10 years, 0 World Series appearances. I’m not saying I don’t admire those teams, I would love to see Shapiro or Beane as out GM, but it’s not a realistic expectation.
Now look at Detroit. Sure, they’ve traded away their future, but now they have a contender. And most of their players are free agent signings/trades in addition to home-grown talent.
You can’t make an organization on your own prospects alone, you have to trade for some as well, you have to trade away some too, without that, you’re stagnating your organization by relying solely on home-grown talent.
I personally would rather see us lose for three more years so we can win for the following 10.
So would I.
My premise was that Bavasi has locked us into this situation with the crazy contract he gave to Silva. Now we have no choice but to try an win it now, because in 3-4 years we will be saddled with an ageing Ichiro, possible a bust Silva, who knows if Felix will be around, and I personally don’t trust the current state of our farm system to sustain us at the top.
Therefore, the only chance out team has of winning a World Series in the next 5-6 years is if we mortgage the future that doesn’t look all that bright and try to win now.
Will we win this year? Probably not, but Bavasi put us in a situation where we have to win now, or wait until new ownership takes over, because I don’t see success under this one.
Willmore,
No one is saying you can only count on your prospects to build a winner, but it should be your main source of talent. Obviously you have to fill in with trades and free agents. The M’s finally have some young players ready to contribute, let’s see what they can do.
Also, the rest of the 2005 top ten: Delmon Young, Ian Stewart, Joel Guzman, Casey Kotchman, Rickie Weeks, Andy Marte, also out of the top ten: Francouer, Matt Cain, Adam Miller, Nick Swisher, Jeff Francis, Chad Billingsley.
The Reds just traded Josh Hamilton to Texas. Does that weaken their offer to Baltimore for Bedard? I guess it probably doesn’t affect it too much, but I was just curious.
Also, couldn’t we have offered Cincinnati something a bit better than Volquez, and stuck Hamilton in a corner?
In my opinion, I think the one thing teams should do 90% of the time or more, is protect those prospects that they deem special. And while Jones’ bat isn’t necessarily special by itself, the combination of low risk, defensive value at a premium position and his plus bat, make him pretty darned special.
If you think of your ML-ready types as assets of value, it’s easier to see why keeping Jones is the right move.
Right now, only Triunfel and Jones should be protected.
Also, put me on the Save Adam Jones Club member list. I’m no longer fond of sacrificing a potential multi-year All Star for two years of a quasi-ace. With emphasis on two years. Bedard is gone after that, with little chance to re-sign. If our offense was in better shape for the next couple years, I might bite. But it’s not.
That said, I’d give up about any other package of prospects for him.
On my untouchable prospects list in a Bedard trade: Adam Jones, Carlos Triunfel, possibly Phillipe Aumont.
Anyone else is fair game.
Ha! Mind meld on Triunfel.
Cincy wanted a young ready starting pitcher with upside for Hamilton, which is what they see in Volquez. The Mariners don’t have that to give.
And I don’t think it has any bearing one the Bedard situation at all because Baltimore wanted nothing to do with Hamilton.
Bailey, Votto and Cueto will probably get it done today if Seattle isn’t offering Jones, Morrow. Clement and Sherrill, which they are not. So that may be what the Reds are doing.
Any chance at all of getting the deal done without including Jones?
In other words, quantity over quality?
I understand it’s probably “no,” but simply wanted to ask.
I read the blurb in that MLB.com piece by Tom Singer yesterday, and the matter-of-fact manner in which he says the O’s may have come down off the Jones demand, but…
I don’t see it.
Everyone I have talked to says the O’s are asking for one of three things to START the trade for Bedard.
1. A major-league ready star in the making at a premium position at either SS or CF.
2. A solid regular at SS or CF PLUS a cheap step-in closer with lots of upside in the role
3. A near ready or team controlled SP that is at least a year away from arby and has at least No. 2 potential with little risk.
One of those three things has to be at the top of the trade package.
That’s why the three rumored packages, four if you include LAD’s last month (Kemp, Broxton, Dewitt), all had a legit center fielder in it. Hamilton, Jones, Gomez… plus a decent SP prospect or better (Bailey, Morrow, Humber), plus another player.
There really aren’t any SS’s out there that teams are willing to trade and the O’s have Matt Weiters to take over at catcher in the next year or two… so CF it is.
I would think that since the Reds wont deal bruce, they’ll need to include Bailey and Cueto with another player to get it done.
The Mets are still in it, willing to go Gomez-Humber-Heilman…
I thought a week ago that NYM was a heavy favorite, but I now think Johan lands there for Gomez, Martinez and three pitching prospects (not Pelfrey).
That leaves Bedard to the Reds or the M’s and I think in the end he goes to Cincinnati. If they are willing to include both Bailey and Cueto, that is.
Thanks, Jason. And to that I say, let the Reds have him!
Thanks again for your willingness to answer questions. This is really a fun spot.
3. A near ready or team controlled SP that is at least a year away from arby and has at least No. 2 potential with little risk.
So I guess they don’t consider Morrow to be a fit for this third starting point?
I wouldn’t either.
I like what you did on the proposed roster. I believe the thinking on Dickey is that he makes the squad or they send him back. Wouldn’t another option be to use Reed instead of Balentien or Jimerson as a corner OF’er as you’d still get pretty good defense. I think both Baek and Morse are out of options so both of them would need a spot on the 25 man roster this year or they will be lost. Then again, maybe you already wish they were lost.
Al,
The M’s will almost certainly keep Dickey. I wouldn’t, hence his absence above.
If Dickey is the #5 SP, then why are they even considering Bedard when they’ve already committed almost $117M to this year’s budget? He will still cost them for the next two seasons and then probably $20M+ for how many years afterwards plus they lose Jones, Morrow, Sherrill, and maybe Clement. I wouldn’t like to see them lose Sherrill but they can afford to do this because they have a lot of RP’s this year and will have many more in the next two years as the minors are loaded. But to throw away many years of very low cost in payroll for three players that have some talent is insane. I can see Morrow being traded in a deal for Bedard because basically Bedard takes his place and is just more expensive in the future. Losing Jones creates two holes in the OF and his ability to back up and play CF and losing Clement and his big LH bat can’t be replaced at his position either. Once Silva was signed, that should have stopped the need to overpay for every player they sign. They have enough talent now to make trades for the remaining pieces they need. Are they going to have a $130M budget in three years?
Dickey isn’t the auto No. 5. He’s probably a pen guy either way.
Jason, are you still planning on doing a report on Morrow? He’s had a couple good outings since his one bad one.
Yeah, waiting until his last start in Venezuela, though. Not too far off.
Jason, given bavasi’s talk about morrow and how he will either be in the bullpen or the rotation next year and not in tacoma. Wouldnt it be better for him to be in the rotation then. Because if not, he will never be a starter and why draft someone so high to be a reliever?
What I am tryin to say is, how bad would it hurt him in the long run to be in the rotation next year opposed to Tacoma?
I agree with the roles as they all make some sense.
The problem with hoping Morrow breaks the starting 5 is that when he fails (which seems likely given what he’s shown so far) it validates the teams preference for veterans, could cause damage to his self confidence as a starter and when they moved RRS or more likely Ho-Ram from the bullpen to Morrows spot where do you think Morrow would go…Not to AAA, I’m thinking, but down to the Pen.
It’s now being reported on MLB.com that MacPhail says he’s “through listening to trade offers for Bedard”, unless something he can’t turn down comes along (my words, not his).
Do you think that’s on the level, or just GM-speak?
Also, on his blog Geoff Baker said that if the M’s don’t get Bedard you can wave the next two years good-bye. I think he’s terribly overstating matters. What do you think? Or, would you rather not comment on what other blogs say?
Until I see otherwise, I think it’s GM speak.
But even if it’s not, it doesn’t mean much. He’s probably heard enough to make a decision, and that puts the ball in Seattle/Cincy/NYM’s court, but the control stays with Baltimore, if that makes sense.
It’snot like he wouldn’t open an email from Omar Minaya that had an offer in it. That’s absurd.
Like your 25 man Jason. Can’t really disagree on anything. I like how you kept Jimerson around. Wonder what the chances of the Mariners actually doing it is?
Jason.
Looking forward to your report on Morrow. Any chance you can also include an update on Sean White and a little information on how Lopez is looked in winter ball?
I can ask, but that pushes the report back a week.
No, wouldn’t want you to hold up the Morrow report for that.
Cheers
been waiting for over a week now for that report on Morrow- he must have had another start or two since you were going to talk about his “last start”???? So what gives
I write when I feel like it, for one, so let’s not start pretending someone other than myself runs this joint - unless you want to pay me a salary EVERY MONTH.
But like I said three days ago, I’m waiting until he’s finished - one more start to go - and then write it up.
I wasn’t able to get a hold of the scout I usually do until he’d already started again, so I’ll wrap it all into one assessment after his final outing.
well said jason
i agree….but for the record you have written a few articles on my laptop at my joint but i still think you are a cool guy
What do you actually think of White? Does he have the stuff to suceed in the majors or is he more like a Jake Woods-esqu roster filler.
Speaking of which, what’s up with Jake Woods?
Also wondering a little about if Baek is gonna be back ever and how he is doing.
Finally, Brian Lahair a bust or too early (or never really earned expectations)? Seems like 1B is pretty weak in our system.
Woods was DFA’d.
LaHair is a bust, just ask marinersrevolution.
First base is weak, yeah. Has been forever it seems.
I like White, and I think his command issues, which aren’t awful, just below average, could be much more effectively hidden in the rotation.
RRS is better suited for both roles than is White, but the best scenario for the pair, in my opinion, would have White starting and RRS in the pen — and if the Mariners have to stay in-house for the 5th spot, I’d go with White, Baek, RRS, Feierabend, in that order at this stage of things.
Spring will clear things up some.
Jason- my apology if my post sounded “demanding” or attacking/demaning- that certainly was not my purpose. I respect you and your knowledge of the game- thats why I come here.
Happy Holidays to all
Phil Rogers from the Chicago Tribune said the Mariners have Jones/Clement/Chen on the table for Bedard. Also alluded that it wasn’t going to be enough and Baltimore wants Morrow.
Maybe thats speculation,i do not recall Chen beign on the top prospect lists for this team.
I think they were saying that package is what the Mariners offered. Got it from MLBTRs.
Bedard isn’t ever coming to seattle via trade if Baltimore is going to ask for a package better than the one NYY and Boston are offering for Johan.
Jones-Morrow-Clement > Hughes-Cabrera, Ellsbury-Bowden-Lowrie and the second Boston offer of Crisp-Lester-Lowrie-Masterson.
And it’s not close.
Jones is the best talent in any of the offers.
So i guess we get to hear we where right there speech again from Bumbling Bill? How many more dollars can the madman spend without losing his job?Better question is why does Linclon and Armstrong allow it?Silva is a very nice # 3 starter i think.So we have 31 million tied up in Silva,Wash and Batista they are a combined 9 games over 500..ouch.Until they get someone in that office who can evaluate players a little we are screwed.I hope veryone had a nice xmas only about 45 days until pitchers and catchers report and i dont think we have any chance at even a wildcard im bummed out!
We haven’t had a shot at the wild card since Detroit pulled off their deal. Maybe if we add Santana/Bedard while keeping Jones.
hehe… that would be interesting to see Iceman - i’m curious just how many drinks it would take for the respective FO’s to make that happen :) Jones will go one way or the other.
It is flat-out too much for Bedard. I would assume it’s more reporter talk than anything. I’m sure maybe it started out with those 3 names from Baltimore but has since come down a good deal. They might be able to get 2 of those guys but surely not 3.
Yes its frustrating that we haven’t nabbed either Bedard or Santana but so far i’m not unhappy about it. We are holding out for our best deal possible just as those teams are - the story will be - who breaks first if either of them.
“Jones is the best talent in any of the offers.”
Better than Ellsbury? I’m surprised to hear that. Hughes a bit too. Is this your opinion or is it from scouts? Ellsbury is just $, especially on defense. I think he’s definitely the better fielder.
If the Orioles want Morrow that badly, they can take him. But we’re pulling Jones off the table.
They can have Morrow, Clement, Sherill, Chen, Santa, and the Tooth Ferry if they want.
Just not Jones.
Jason I saw that the M’s signed a young Japanese pitcher, Kenta Suda. Do you have any info on him. From what I have found online it seems like he has a great arm for his age, he’s said to be able to throw 94 MPH. Would you know how he compared to the young Tawainese pitcher they just signed? Thanks.
“(Jones is) better than Ellsbury? I’m surprised to hear that. Hughes a bit too. Is this your opinion or is it from scouts?”
These are M’s fans, yes? It’s still unbelievable to me that even our own fans don’t understand how good Adam Jones is. It’s astonishing.
Adam Jones is as close to a can’t-miss star as you can get. And he still isn’t done developing in the outfield.
….Even more alarming is that the M’s are so quick to include him as the starter-piece in these trade offers.
I don’t know anything about Suda, no. I’ll ask around.
And yeah, Jones has a chance to be a perennial all-star, while Ellsbury is a safer bet as a prospect, he’s just not the natural talent that Jones is.
Hughes has not had the same stuff he had in 2006 and he may never. He’s a good 2 if he pans out, but he’s a bigger risk than Jones, being a pitcher and all.
Im on Hughes i think a #2 starter is better then anything we have no named Felix.Ellsbury is a nice player but everyone goes crazy because the Redsox won the series i agree with Jason on Jones upside the dude could be Eric Davis i would be very happy with that!