Comments on: The Churchill Report http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/ Thu, 28 Aug 2008 11:37:37 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: jesse21 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5790 jesse21 Fri, 21 Dec 2007 02:23:21 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5790 #127 I have heard that rumour also. It is definetly interesting to say the least. I would want to hear what Baltimore would want for Bedard (if Jones is taken out of the package). I want Bedard, but at the same time don't want the M's to trade the farm for him. If they could swing a deal that did not include either jeff clement, or adam jones, I would be thrilled. I think bottom line is I don't want Adam Jones going anywhere! Jason. Have you heard anymore news on the M's and Tony Clark? Also in your opinion do you think the 5th spot in the rotation will be addressed through free agency, trade, or in house. Personally if Bedard is out of the equation i would like Scott Olsen, or Edwin Jackson to be brought in, that is if they don't cost a kings ransom. I also think Bartolo Colon is an intriguing option. #127 I have heard that rumour also. It is definetly interesting to say the least. I would want to hear what Baltimore would want for Bedard (if Jones is taken out of the package).

I want Bedard, but at the same time don’t want the M’s to trade the farm for him. If they could swing a deal that did not include either jeff clement, or adam jones, I would be thrilled. I think bottom line is I don’t want Adam Jones going anywhere!

Jason. Have you heard anymore news on the M’s and Tony Clark? Also in your opinion do you think the 5th spot in the rotation will be addressed through free agency, trade, or in house. Personally if Bedard is out of the equation i would like Scott Olsen, or Edwin Jackson to be brought in, that is if they don’t cost a kings ransom. I also think Bartolo Colon is an intriguing option.

]]> By: Slack http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5789 Slack Thu, 20 Dec 2007 22:29:11 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5789 I'm not thrilled by the Silva signing but not overly ticked off either. He is still relatively young and as we've all been saying, it's better than the back end from last year with Weaver and Ramirez. It's just too bad that back end stability has to be so expensive. I've said this before but this is what happens when you don't have any in house options for the rotation. This is why I am waiting and hoping to see Tillman, Aumont and company make the rotation in the somewhat near future. By the way, I heard a rumor saying that the Orioles may be willing to drop Adam Jones out of the asking price for Bedard.Is there any truth to that, Jason? I would be more willing to consider Bedard if that were the case, although I still don't like having to give up good prospects for the possibility of only two years of Bedard. I’m not thrilled by the Silva signing but not overly ticked off either. He is still relatively young and as we’ve all been saying, it’s better than the back end from last year with Weaver and Ramirez. It’s just too bad that back end stability has to be so expensive.
I’ve said this before but this is what happens when you don’t have any in house options for the rotation. This is why I am waiting and hoping to see Tillman, Aumont and company make the rotation in the somewhat near future.
By the way, I heard a rumor saying that the Orioles may be willing to drop Adam Jones out of the asking price for Bedard.Is there any truth to that, Jason? I would be more willing to consider Bedard if that were the case, although I still don’t like having to give up good prospects for the possibility of only two years of Bedard.

]]> By: Uncle Al http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5787 Uncle Al Thu, 20 Dec 2007 13:16:16 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5787 Jason #112 I couldn’t agree with you more about not trading Jones for Bedard as it’s just plain senseless to do that. They have Hernandez for I don’t know how many years, Washburn and Batista for this year and next, and now Silva for the next four. Even if Morrow isn’t ready for the 09’ season, he could continue to learn at the ML level just like Hernandez is doing. They now have Baek, Dickey, Feierabend, Ramirez, Rohrbaugh, Rowland-Smith, Thomas, and White and one of them out to be able to fill the #5 slot this year. It’s not until the 10’ season that they will need two more SP’s and the farm system should help them then. There are 38 players on the 40 man roster now if you count Silva and they could drop Dickey, Ramirez, and LaHair. Sexson, Vidro, and Ibanez will come at the end of this coming year. They need room for Tuiasosopo, Saunders, Kahn, Rohrbaugh, Thomas, and maybe a few others. They get another full draft this coming July. They have built up a fairly good inventory of trading chips so they can go after LH bats at 1B and corner OF for the 09’ season and have a full year or more to get it done. They are in a position to trade old for young or young for young finally because they have players of value for trades. They could also go after a young SP without crippling their farm system. What would you do? Jason #112
I couldn’t agree with you more about not trading Jones for Bedard as it’s just plain senseless to do that. They have Hernandez for I don’t know how many years, Washburn and Batista for this year and next, and now Silva for the next four. Even if Morrow isn’t ready for the 09’ season, he could continue to learn at the ML level just like Hernandez is doing. They now have Baek, Dickey, Feierabend, Ramirez, Rohrbaugh, Rowland-Smith, Thomas, and White and one of them out to be able to fill the #5 slot this year. It’s not until the 10’ season that they will need two more SP’s and the farm system should help them then. There are 38 players on the 40 man roster now if you count Silva and they could drop Dickey, Ramirez, and LaHair. Sexson, Vidro, and Ibanez will come at the end of this coming year. They need room for Tuiasosopo, Saunders, Kahn, Rohrbaugh, Thomas, and maybe a few others. They get another full draft this coming July. They have built up a fairly good inventory of trading chips so they can go after LH bats at 1B and corner OF for the 09’ season and have a full year or more to get it done. They are in a position to trade old for young or young for young finally because they have players of value for trades. They could also go after a young SP without crippling their farm system. What would you do?

]]> By: Greg07 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5785 Greg07 Thu, 20 Dec 2007 05:22:13 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5785 I agree, jesse. I realize its not for the best of the team THIS year, but this year isnt important enough to sacrafice the future. I agree, jesse. I realize its not for the best of the team THIS year, but this year isnt important enough to sacrafice the future.

]]> By: thr33niL http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5784 thr33niL Thu, 20 Dec 2007 05:20:55 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5784 Just another mediocre upgrade [Silva]. Overpayed of course. I do agree though that I would prefer Bavasi just spend money over him showing the fan base another way to get fleeced this winter. I just don't trust the guy when trades are the topic. Just another mediocre upgrade [Silva]. Overpayed of course. I do agree though that I would prefer Bavasi just spend money over him showing the fan base another way to get fleeced this winter.

I just don’t trust the guy when trades are the topic.

]]> By: jesse21 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5783 jesse21 Thu, 20 Dec 2007 03:28:32 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5783 MLB.com says that the m's signed Silva, and the deal could be finalized as early as Thursday, pending a physical. #122 personally (though i'am not thrilled with the amount of money they are throwing at him) i would rather have them bring in silva, then trade the farm for bedard. MLB.com says that the m’s signed Silva, and the deal could be finalized as early as Thursday, pending a physical.

#122 personally (though i’am not thrilled with the amount of money they are throwing at him) i would rather have them bring in silva, then trade the farm for bedard.

]]> By: huhwhat http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5782 huhwhat Thu, 20 Dec 2007 03:11:17 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5782 Hey anyone else kind of numb to the Silva signing that supposedly went down or at least that's what it sounds like on the Times site and the M's site. Hey anyone else kind of numb to the Silva signing that supposedly went down or at least that’s what it sounds like on the Times site and the M’s site.

]]> By: StandinPat http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5781 StandinPat Thu, 20 Dec 2007 03:06:07 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5781 There is a difference between trading someone of value to improve your team and just 'dumping' them. There is a difference between trading someone of value to improve your team and just ‘dumping’ them.

]]> By: shemberry http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5780 shemberry Thu, 20 Dec 2007 02:02:07 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5780 I have no interest in the M's trading Beltre. He is what is right with the team, not someone we should be looking to dump. I have no interest in the M’s trading Beltre. He is what is right with the team, not someone we should be looking to dump.

]]> By: StandinPat http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5779 StandinPat Thu, 20 Dec 2007 01:34:47 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5779 I know its a pipe dream, but with LA not happy with Kemp's 'attitude' and not wanting to go into next year with a rookie at third, wouldn't an Ibanez, Beltre + a spec for LaRoche, Kemp, and Loney trade be sweet. We'd get three young but talented, and mlb ready players, and LA can get the vets they so crave. Granted I know the m's crave the same thing, it'd just be nice to take advantage of someone else wanting those 'proven' vets for once. I know its a pipe dream, but with LA not happy with Kemp’s ‘attitude’ and not wanting to go into next year with a rookie at third, wouldn’t an Ibanez, Beltre + a spec for LaRoche, Kemp, and Loney trade be sweet. We’d get three young but talented, and mlb ready players, and LA can get the vets they so crave. Granted I know the m’s crave the same thing, it’d just be nice to take advantage of someone else wanting those ‘proven’ vets for once.

]]> By: Jason A. Churchill http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5778 Jason A. Churchill Thu, 20 Dec 2007 01:08:49 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5778 <p>OPS + 10 to 15% = runs scored, too.</p> OPS + 10 to 15% = runs scored, too.

]]> By: StandinPat http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5776 StandinPat Thu, 20 Dec 2007 00:18:37 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5776 Yeah, I didnt get the team avg ops of .850 to be successful post either. I've always viewed anything over an .800 ops to be above avg, and an OPS in the .850 range to be borderline allstar. To say that you need a full team of borderline allstars to be successful seems a little much. Granted pitching, defense, and speed can all affect the need for the offense to carry the rest. Yeah, I didnt get the team avg ops of .850 to be successful post either. I’ve always viewed anything over an .800 ops to be above avg, and an OPS in the .850 range to be borderline allstar. To say that you need a full team of borderline allstars to be successful seems a little much. Granted pitching, defense, and speed can all affect the need for the offense to carry the rest.

]]> By: Jason A. Churchill http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5775 Jason A. Churchill Wed, 19 Dec 2007 23:01:04 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5775 At Safeco Field, you have to adjust that, candasharp. Even if yer just talking about the starters. At Safeco Field, you have to adjust that, candasharp. Even if yer just talking about the starters.

]]> By: Adam B. http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5774 Adam B. Wed, 19 Dec 2007 22:38:56 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5774 #103: EXACTLY. Vidro went and did EXACTLY what the Mariners payed him to do in 2007. They didn't think he was going to bust out some extraordinary power numbers when they traded for him. They over value avg and "veteranship" (whatever that is) and are willing to pay for it. Just because Vidro was an abomination of a DH doesn't mean the M's see it that way--After all, this is a team that has continued to repeat the Washburn mistake the last 3 years. Now whether they were happy or not with him as the DH last year, doesn't necessarily mean they'd be happy with his option vesting, and I certainly hope Jason is correct about them pursuing other options. I just see a team that is completely un-able to admit or learn from its many mistakes, and I'm not going to hold my breath in the hope that they change until I see some evidence otherwise. #103: EXACTLY.

Vidro went and did EXACTLY what the Mariners payed him to do in 2007. They didn’t think he was going to bust out some extraordinary power numbers when they traded for him. They over value avg and “veteranship” (whatever that is) and are willing to pay for it.

Just because Vidro was an abomination of a DH doesn’t mean the M’s see it that way–After all, this is a team that has continued to repeat the Washburn mistake the last 3 years.

Now whether they were happy or not with him as the DH last year, doesn’t necessarily mean they’d be happy with his option vesting, and I certainly hope Jason is correct about them pursuing other options.

I just see a team that is completely un-able to admit or learn from its many mistakes, and I’m not going to hold my breath in the hope that they change until I see some evidence otherwise.

]]> By: candasharp http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5773 candasharp Wed, 19 Dec 2007 21:58:53 +0000 http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/14/the-churchill-report/#comment-5773 Jason, Thanks for the response. A couple points of clarification that I should have made clear. 1. I am looking at the OPS for a starting lineup, not the whole team (ie; I am leaving out the Willie Bloomquists of the world that come in for defense). 2. For NL teams, I leave out the pitcher OPS because the style of play is adjusted and the teams are all equivalently handicapped. 3. I am not adjusting for ballpark factors. That being said, I did a quick rough calc of the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Rockies Team OPS for 2007 based on starting lineups and taking an average for platoon type players. The Yanks were at 849, the Red Sox at 846, the Rockies at 850 and the Phillies at 863. In contrast the D-Rays were at 803 and the Pirates at 774. This is by no means dispositive but I think it lends some credence to the idea that OPS in the mid 800's substantially helps the chances for a team to be successful. Jason,

Thanks for the response.

A couple points of clarification that I should have made clear.

1. I am looking at the OPS for a starting lineup, not the whole team (ie; I am leaving out the Willie Bloomquists of the world that come in for defense).

2. For NL teams, I leave out the pitcher OPS because the style of play is adjusted and the teams are all equivalently handicapped.

3. I am not adjusting for ballpark factors.

That being said, I did a quick rough calc of the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Rockies Team OPS for 2007 based on starting lineups and taking an average for platoon type players. The Yanks were at 849, the Red Sox at 846, the Rockies at 850 and the Phillies at 863. In contrast the D-Rays were at 803 and the Pirates at 774.

This is by no means dispositive but I think it lends some credence to the idea that OPS in the mid 800’s substantially helps the chances for a team to be successful.

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