No, this is not going to be a conversation about steroids, HGH or an opinion piece on any of that BS going on with the Mitchell Report. I just don’t care to discuss it. Instead, let’s update the Seattle Mariners Hot Stove action.
It’s been days since there was any news on the wheelings and dealings of the Seattle Mariners, with the exception of the likelihood that Japanese right-hander Hiroki Kuroda has told those close to him that he has chosen the Los Angeles Dodgers over the M’s and Arizona Diamondbacks.
There is nothing new to report on much else, but here’s the latest I’m hearing:
Starting Pitchers
The Mariners and Orioles continue to have occasional dialogue regarding left-hander Erik Bedard. But contrary to at least one report, the Mariners have not offered a package of Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and George Sherrill, nor have they offered Jones, Sherrill and Clement.
It’s very possible that the M’s have yet to make a formal offer and still trying to assess what it might take to land Bedard.
One thing seems very clear, however. GM Bill Bavasi is not interested in getting fleeced this winter, and appears hellbent on avoiding such a situation when it comes to Jones, Morrow and Clement.
The Dodgers have the best shot to land Bedard if they so choose, but if Kuroda chooses L.A. officially, it may remove the urgency for Ned Colletti to add another starting pitcher at such a cost.
The Reds could probably get Baltimore to gift wrap Bedard and add some sprinkles, too, if they were willing to include outfielder Jay Bruce in the deal, which is apparently, and intelligently so, something Cincinnati is not willing to do.
Cincy could, however, offer Homer Bailey, potentially a future No. 1, first baseman Joey Votto and center fielder Josh Hamilton, which is as good or better than any deal Seattle could wisely offer Baltimore GM Andy McPhail.
But it wouldn’t be wise for the Reds, in my opinion. Bedard is only under club control through the 2009 season, when he will hit the market as the top pitcher available and certainy looking for a Barry Zito type contract.
Bailey, Hamilton and Votto are all under club control for at least five more years, six for Bailey and Votto, and all three are dirt cheap through the 2010 and 2011 seasons. So unless the Reds plan on opening up the wallet and spending near $100 million on payroll, Bedard should never don a Reds uniform.
I’d venture to guess that Bailey, if healthy, will be outperforming Bedard by 2009 anyway.
I think the New York Mets land him.
Chances of Bedard being traded to Seattle: 10%
The Mariners are a super long shot to land Johan Santana, as the Twins are likely to ask for a Bedard-like package, and then some and Santana is a free agent after the year.
Ben Sheets isn’t happening, as the Brewers are asking for premium position players and young, cheap bullpen help, leading one front office representative to believe GM Doug Melvin would demand that both left-hander George Sherrill and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt be included, if not center field prospect Adam Jones as well.
“They aren’t likely to be realistic right now on him,” he said. “The market is out of control and being a seller, they have the chance to ask for the world for awhile. If they come down to earth on him, he’ll move, and they will still get quite a bit back.”
Chances of Sheets being traded to Seattle: 3%
The Edwin Jackson deal isn’t dead, as the Tampa Bay Rays are still willing to move him, but he’s not going to be as cheap as originally hoped. Seattle may revisit the idea if they miss out on Kuroda and/or Bedard.
The Rays are said to be asking for ready prospects or younger veterans without large contracts at three spots: 2B, C and RP.
Jose Lopez, Rob Johnson, Eric O’Flaherty, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Sean Green make some sense.
Chances of Edwin Jackson being traded to Seattle: 10%
At this point, I’m unaware of any interest the Mariners have shown in right-handers Jason Jennings, Freddy Garcia and Mark Prior, all coming off injuries.
Bavasi has always liked Jennings, so it’s more than conceivable that contact has been made, or at least will at some point.
Mark Prior is interesting, because the upside is still there. Prior’s stuff hasn’t slipped much, as his velocity was as high as 94 mph the last time he pitched in a live game, and his curve ball had the same bite it always had.
His problems are with command and, obviously, staying on the mound. Many of you have asked whether I think it would make sense to use Prior in relief to alleviate some of the workload, possibly enabling him to remain healthy.
The best short answer I can present to you comes from a scout I asked the same question of:
“I don’t know, it’s possible. But he may resist that, and some guys just aren’t suited for relief work. Every one is different physically and physiologically, so some pitchers may not respond as well in that role. And our pitching guys tend to believe bullpen work is tougher on the arm than starting, since the regimen is so whacky. You get up and throw so much, even if you aren’t used that night.”
So, it’s possible, but it may not help, depending on how his arm, stuff and mental side responds.
Chances of Jennings, Garcia or Prior being signed by Seattle: Jennings 5%, Garcia 0%(won’t be ready until June) Prior 2% (he’s likely to wish to stay in warmer weather, like his hometown in SD)
At this stage, I have not heard a single peep about the M’s and right-handers Carlos Silva, Bartolo Colon, Livan Hernandez and Kyle Lohse, which is likely the result of the waiting game with the Kuroda and Bedard situations.
One east coast reporter told me today that he’s heard Seattle connected to Lohse, and another emailed me to ask me if I thought Seattle would guarantee Colon two years, because apparently that’s what it’s going to take to get him, and he is apparently interested in Seattle.
Josh Fogg is another backburner filler type Seattle has been linked to, but I don’t know if it’s true, or what level of interest the Mariners have had or will have going forward.
Bats
The Mariners are still being linked to outfielders such as Geoff Jenkins and Brad Wilkerson and to a lesser extent Kenny Lofton. Since Cliff Floyd signed in Tampa, the Mariners had to move off him and focus elsewhere.
But the club is still focused on pitching and may not get anything done with the lineup until they have a better idea what level of resources will be spent on the rotation.
Bench, Bullpen
Mike Lamb? Jeremy Affeldt? Marcus Giles? All have been linked to Seattle, but I’d prefer they went after Jose Valentin and Reggie Sanders, who are also free agents.
Not a lot to report on these fronts, since starting pitching is on both the frontburners of the Mariners hot stove. Seriously, I can’t get anyone to talk about the Mariners and a bat or reliever because there isn’t much talk between the club and the agents for those players. Some, just not a ton right now.
I assume that after Christmas we’ll start hearing a lot more rumors about the Mariners and what they will do with the offense, including the Richie Sexson situation, Jose Vidro’s role in 2008, and what the club does with the outfield, since I refuse to believe the Mariners are dumb enough to leave Raul Ibanez in left field and starting Jones in right when anyone with half a brain can figure out that it makes so much more sense to put Jones, the rangier defender, in left to cover all that space at Safeco Field.
I still expect the Mariners to make at least two somewhat major trades this winter, and will probably make one or two bad-but-not-terrible free agent signings.
It’s just tough to tell which direction they will head until Kuroda makes it official in Los Angeles and Bedard is traded to the Mets.
If I had to venture a guess on who the Mariners end up with this winter, I’m only comfortable saying this.
It won’t include anyone named in the Mitchell Report.
Send Kudos to Prospect Insider for this Report!
Thank you for giving us some comments amongst the silence. I was thinking the same thing about the M’s and the Mitchell report.
If at all possible, I’m curious about Dallas McPherson’s situation. So please do share if have the time. Oh, and did you get the sense that the Brewers are going to move more than one of Capuano/Vargas/Bush?
Report to us that HoRam won’t be in the rotation??? Please????
If the Brewers move Sheets, I wouldn’t think they’d move two more starters. Maybe one, but maybe none, depending on the pieces they could get back.
I see Sheets staying, Capuano traded and Bush moving to the pen.
Bush to the pen? man did they turn sour on him quick.
BTW, are you on the East Coast this Holiday season? I recall last year you were out there for a while.
I’m in good old Federal Way, Washington.
ESPNews is showing that the D-backs just traded for Haren. Would you take this as evidence that Kuroda has informed them, the M’s and the Dodgers that he is going to LA?
Beane’s shakin and bakin. Finally some fun for the offseason.
Not necessarily, shem, but it might make them pull their offer back.
Certainly it cost them more to get Haren, but in terms of money and talent, they did better going the trade route.
About the Haren trade, it looks to me that the A’s the good end of the deal. What are your thoughts?
Any guesses on where Blanton ends up?
What I’m trying to figure out is where Beane goes looking for his next Ace in the making. Is he going to trade for position players and then flip for a High-A or AA talent?
The is pathetic, I’m more interested in what Beane gets to do than my own team. LOL!
So the Mariners are odds on (given your percentages) to stand pat this offseason? Of course they will have to add at least one starter but it appears it won’t be anything better than a 4 or 5. 4 by default if Ramirez is still around.
I’m not too upset by this I just wish they would make up their minds in building a contender or look to the future. It seems they are in their trying to stay “competitive” rut as usual.
They won’t stand pat.
And yeah, Oakland robbed Arizona.
I would have ultimately made a Haren for Gonzalez deal, straight up.
But Haren will help Arizona quite a bit. He fits in nicely, and won’t be expensive for another few years, if they decide to keep him.
BTW, Brett Anderson is not a throw-in. He’s a former first rounder, left-handed, 6-4, 215, and he’s a very safe prospect because he has a smooth, fluid delivery and plus command of a fastball in the 89-91 range with good life.
He’s bettered Tillman’s numbers at each stop, same leagues, same age.
You like Gonzalez that much? His ‘07 minor league numbers weren’t that impressive in any facet on paper.
Gonzalez was just 21 this year, too, and after hitting under .250/.301/.428 during the first half of the year hit .314/.386/.539 during the second half, including a .310/.396/.500 showing in Triple-A Tucson in 49 plate appearances in August and September.
He’s a good athlete with above average speed, an above average arm and good defensive inctincts. he might be a center field option in a smaller ballpark or for shorter stints (wouldn’t be surprised if he plays there in Oakland if they don’t do better this winter.)
His plus bat speed is developing his raw power into game production and that development is on schedule, if not ahead of…
He’s also left-handed and despite 109 Ks and just 38 walks a year ago, he’s actually a decent bet to make consistent contact and with power.
Similar to Balentien in that manner, because both continue to improve and are young enough to keep that up for another year or three.
He isn’t ready for the big leagues yet, but is probably only a year away, and his weaknesses (pitch selection, patience) play right into Oakland’s organizational strategy, giving him great shot to get better in those areas.
Plus, I’m not a Haren fan. While he’s a solid pitcher, there was absolutely no chance he was going to repeat his 2007, especially in the AL.
He’s an above-average guy, no doubt, but he’s no ace, no N0. 1 and probably not a legit consistent No. 2 - again, not in the AL.
I like the trade for both sides, but Oakland won out on this one.
Kinda bummed that the Royals landed Callaspo. Seems to me that young second basemen aren’t as common these days. Callaspo looks like a safe bet to turn into a solid #2 hitter in the mold of Castillo/Hudson/Roberts. Just what Seattle needs.
I wonder what the Haren trade does for Bedard’s value. If three years of Haren is worth that much, how much is two years of Bedard worth? Assuming Jones and Gonzalez are on par as centerpieces, what would Seattle have to give up in addition? Morrow would seem to be a better second piece than anything Oakland got.
Hey Jason - are you working on a system update type thing? I’m wondering about the possibility of guys in our own system, like Feierabend, Rohrbaugh, and Baek, kind of stepping up and taking those back of the rotation slots.
Or do I just need to get back on my meds?
Great write up jason. I am very torn on what i want the m’s to due this offseason. Though i do want a guy like bedard coming to seattle, the thought of shipping a package of jones, clement/morrow, sherrill makes me cringe. Though Prior and Colon are both coming off significant time on the dl, i would like to see either, or both of them in mariners blue next season, as long as we don’t have to over pay to get them. I suppose all we can do as m’s fans, is hope that bavasi makes moves that help, not hinder the team for next year, and the future.
By the way, anyone interested in joining me at M’s fan fest to ask the last two guys on this list a few questions?
2008 Seattle Mariners Fan Fest
Sat-Sun Jan 26-27
SCHEDULED TO APPEAR-All appearances are subject to change.
JJ Putz
Richie Sexson (Saturday only)
Mark Lowe
Ryan Feierabend
Eric O’Flaherty
Jamie Burke
John McLaren
Dave Niehaus
Rick Rizzs
Dave Sims
*Howard Lincoln
*Chuck Armstrong
Check back as we will be adding more players, coaches and Mariner Legends periodically.
Well are division just got weaker this year and better in the future.I sure hope the guys can figure out how to beat up on a awful Oakland club and a rotten Texas club.Hell we are in a 2 team division this year with a top 10 payrole do you think a wildcard is asking to much? If it is blowup the front office and bring in someone with some good ideas please.
Kind of funny that Sexson is only showing on Saturday for Funfest. He only showed up about half the time at the plate last year as well.
Jason, u are a brutal evaluator.. cmon, Haren a #3?? Maybe in the old dead ball era, but in this day and age, Dan Haren can pass for a #1 on most teams, and has to be considered at least a #2 starter..
What is your criteria for a #1 or #2 starter?? If you’re calling Haren a #3, how many #1 or #2 starters are even in MLB?
5-6, with a 4.15 and 1.51 WHIP in a pitcher’s ballpark. Does not sound like a number 1 or 2 pitcher to me. Once again Beane fleeced the competition. The start of the year he had last year was a fluke, not a true indication of his abilities. I think Jason is right that he tops out as a good #3 or below average #2.
If the M’s cannot do anything significant this year what about this:
M’s bring the payroll back to $60 million for two years(possibly one)
They save the money for next years best free agents or trading mid-season 2008 for key additions
The $40 million or so goes into Caribean area signings and the minor leagues IE The best coaches and scouts money can buy.
I want to see them contend but Jones, Clement, and Morrow are a lot to give up for anyone
blowgun…
First off, there is a difference between what he was in 2007 and what he was prior to and hereafter. Its the first year he’s been that good and he was somewhat lucky in many ways as well, helped out by some defense and ballparks.
His FIP was 3.82, 75 points higher than his actual ERA, and while I believe in most of his trends to an extent, they are modest at best, including his K/9. His GB rate was identical to previous seasons but his HR/Fly ratio went down more than 3.5% of his career rate.
That’s not repeatable, nor is it likely that he repeats his LOB % that spiked almost 4%.
I don’t necessarily expect him to regress to 2006, but to expect those things to go right for him again when so much of it out of his control, well, that’s quite insane.
If you give him SOME credit for simply being a better pitcher in 2007 than he’d been before, which is realistic to an extent, he’s probably going to end up being the guy between 2006 and 2007.
Being in the NL will help him sustain his ERA and K rates, but he was highly unlikely to improve or even maintain those numbers, which is why Beane traded him now rather than next year.
And just because he’d be the best pitcher on some teams - SOME, NOT MOST - but surely more than a few, doesn’t make him a No. 1.
You have a lot to learn about the terms used in talent evaluation.
“No. 1″ typically means a No. 1 on a good staff and team, not No. 1 on any team. And that is definitely the way I have always used the term.
How many number one starters are there in baseball?Everyone says Felix is one the only problem is this guys last 3 years he has pitched like a number one starter and Felix hasnt.Number one stuff felix has and Haren doesnt and yes i know Felix is young but we allways put him on the pedistool of being great hell Gooden was great at 19 Felix was good.I would guess there are only about 8 true number one starters and there are 30 teams isnt it ironic dont you think?
Haren hasn’t pitched like a No. 1 for three straight years.
He just hasn’t.
And yeah, I think there are less than 10 true 1s in baseball.
Johan, CC, Beckett, Peavy, maybe Verlander, Webb and a few others.
Lots of guys with legit No. 1 potential, though.
Cain, Hamels, Billingsley, Liriano, Felix, Buchholz, Joba, Kazmir…
Bedard’s 2007 was just a month’s work shy of being an ace season. But he has to replicate that.
I think a number one starter is in the eyes of the beholder i havent done the stat work but Haren has made 34 starts 215 innings are more and won 14 games are more 3 years in a row .I dont think there are 5 guys in all of the majors who have done that .Maybe im wrong but i would say the only one who comes to mind is his new teamate Webb.Like i said i havent done the research but i wouldnt have a problem plugging this guy in the one hole for the Mariners and watching us win!
Oswalt ,Smoltz and Pettite are close but dont reach in those 3 categorys but i did forget about old Santana he is in this category of 3 guys who have done this for 3 years,Like i said before bueaty is in the eye of the beholder everyone loves to see the guy throwing 98 but myself i want results!
My only point was that if Haren is a #3, then their arent too many #1s and #2s
27 - How many Wins a pitcher gets shouldn’t really be weighed too much in terms of saying a pitcher’s a #1. Cause wins and losses don’t really reflect how good a pitcher is and when your talking about being a #1 and being the #1 pitcher on the staff are 2 totally different things. Paul Abbot had a 17 win season in 2001, doesn’t mean he was that good of a pitcher, but is a reflection of the team.
I would rather term a #1 in their performances and Haren would get that nod if he had repeated 2007 in 2006 and 2005. But he didn’t.
He did throw innings each year, But so did Livan Hernandez, and he made the same amount of starts, and was also close in total wins, does that mean Livan is an ace?
Look at the last 3 year stats compared to each other.
Livan : 39W 34L 666.6ip 102gs
Haren : 43W 34L 662.7ip 102gs
Based on your qualifications of an Ace #1, Livan would pretty much be an Ace #1.
JAC- At this point if you were in charge would you sell off the old stiffs, (sexson, Ibanez, Vidro), and play for 09..? This is starting to look a lot like last off season… I’m fearful that the win now culture being promoted by upper-management continues to make an average or worse GM make bad moves… See Weaver and now HoRam twice… This franchise continues to so little with so much…
#30 You are right i didnt write that correctly i guess the comparison with those 2 pitchers is Haren 650 hits 153 walks and 531 strikouts as for Livan 761 hits 240 walks and 365 strikeouts a huge diffrence between these 2 guys but that was my mistake.Also i thought Jason had intellgent baseball fans on this site not to compare apples and oranges..oops my bad.
Jason,
What do you think about trying to get Dallas MacPherson on the team as a potential replacement for Sexson? Or do you see him a Broussard redux?
Welp, Kuroda is officially a Dodger, You can have Jason Marquis though.. he’d be free pay his contract and he’s yours.. please?
That said, I think the Mariners have two courses of path, make the big move for 08′ (Trade for Bedard, Santana or Blanton) OR make a move for 09/10.. Not sure what that would be as they really don’t have a guy to sell.. maybe they just wait for the minor league cavalry and take a shot at it in 09′
32 - Yeah and categorizing Johan a real #1 with Haren is asinine. You wrote the prerequisite for what you thought an ace is with no mention of any other standard of recognition. I just went off of what you wrote, so what does that make you?
Learn how to read and comprehend, I don’t think Livan is a good pitcher at all, not one to be compared to Haren either. I questioned your reasoning for why you believe Haren is that Ace #1 quality type of pitcher who performs at that level and deserves to be called that. The reasoning you put forth as quoted “I think a number one starter is in the eyes of the beholder i havent done the stat work but Haren has made 34 starts 215 innings are more and won 14 games are more 3 years in a row” didn’t make sense. You based it off Innings, Games Started, and Wins. Nothing Else.
Last, next time you want to make a smart ass comment like that, at least use spell check if you don’t know how to spell.
“Also i thought Jason had intellgent baseball fans on this site not to compare apples and oranges..oops my bad.”
-”intellgent” should be “intelligent”
-Please, in the future understand “are” and “or” are two totally different words, they even sound different, now if you were to mistake “our” and “are” I could understand.
-I’m not even going to touch on the subject of grammar in your posts either.
I guess elementary school level reading comprehension and basic grammatical skills aren’t necessary to post on this site…oops my bad.
The irony man, the irony. Hey you brightened up my day with a good laugh though. Thanks.
Glad i could make your day better also thanks for the spelling lesson.
The Mariners dodged a bullet, I think. As long as they still add at least one league-average pitcher, they’ll have done better than Kuroda, regardless of the monetary cost.
Jason, how do you think Carlos Silva would do if he became a Mariner? Would he be helped much by Safeco? With Yuniesky and Adrian on the right side?
Would it make sense for Seattle to offer the same money to him they offered to Kuroda? And, would that be enough?
And, where would he fit in the M’s rotation?
I agree. There is absolutely nothing about “losing” out on Kuroda that bothers me. Jackson is still an intriguing guy if it wouldnt take too much to get him. Also any thoughts on the Royals’ plans for Zach Greinke?
I am so glad we didn’t get Kuroda. Nothing about him impressed me. He may do well in the NL, but I think the AL would have eaten him alive. I just want it to be April, every day I wake up terrified that Jones, Morrow, Sherrill, and Triunfel have been traded for Bedard. I am not saying that this has been offered, but I still fear it.
Silva isn’t helped much by Safeco at all since he’s a severe GB pitcher.
His numbers might actually get worse since he’d be on natural grass versus the Pro Turf.
It seems as if Silva is looking for five years, though, and Seattle shouldn’t go anywhere near that.
Not a Silva fan at all.
I’d say as far as free agents go, the M’s should go after guys in this order:
1. Colon - Best stuff of the FAs, and though it’s a risk, it’d likely cost any club less than Kuroda, Silva or Lohse.
2. Lohse - If he wants more than three years, that should slam the door right there, but Lohse has solid stuff and could be turning a corner. The club is still better off looking into guys like Jackson, Scott Olsen etc.
Zack Greinke is probably going to step into the starting rotation in KC and it would probably take quite a bit to get him from the Royals at this stage.
He threw the ball well last year and could be hitting his stride. I like Greinke more now than I did when he first came up. He just seems more comfortable and if he can take that into ‘08 as a member of the starting five, KC is going to be more than respectable - they could finish around .500.
38/Jason,
Silva might be the best arm on the market, but you’re right safeco would probably hurt him more than help him. That being said, You should probably avoid Kyle Lohse, and Colon might be okay.. But it’d probably cost you 2-18? that sounds about right.
Jason, You ready to take Sean Marshall yet?
Seriously, Marshall has got to be better than your other options.
I think that the Mariners are probably calling the Orioles back and slightly upping their offer on Erik Bedard.
Now that they have whiffed on Kuroda, I pray they miss on Bedard. I could have lived with Kuroda because he was only going to cost them money but $12M per year is a lot. You were adamant that Broussard would be gone and now the budget sits at $105M and they need a good big LH bat for a corner OF position who plays good defense. This will allow Ibanez to shift to DH and platoon with Vidro who will have other roles from the bench. I also think you are right about at least two trades because there are going to be 7-8 players that need to go on the 40 man roster next December. They should trade for a young, cheap SP and a big LH bat for the OF if they do nothing else this year as it fits in for the future also. Since they’re going to start with Ramirez in one slot, why not write off 08’ and see what they really have in Baek, Dickey, Feierabend, Morrow, Rowland-Smith, Rohrbaugh, Thomas, and White to cover two slots once Ramirez fails. Morrow should be ready by 09’ so they only need one more SP for the rotation and maybe one of the others works out for the #5 slot with more help coming from the farm system in 10’. They should not give up Triunfel, Clement, Jones, Morrow, Tillman, Aumont, Ramirez, or Butler in any trade as they are going to be needed later on.
I do not see why the M’s would trade Morrow and Jones in a Bedard deal. If the Sox won’t include Ellesbury and Lester for the best pitched in the world, why we would offer that a lesser player. Isn’t Jones considered in the class of Ellesbury, personally I think more talented with the power advantage. Morrow has as much potential as Lester if not more. Also the Yanks won’t trade Kennedy and Hughes. I mean Jones and Morrow are about the same as both of those packages and neither of those teams are going to make those deals for Santana. The M’s need to let RRs, Morrow, and Fier fight for the 4-5, worse case scenario 80-84 wins but ready to take over the West in 09 with Felix and Morrow manning the rotatio and lots of money to throw at Teixera and best available starting pitchers.
You just can not trade Morrow and Jones, a package of either Jones, Wlad, and Sherrill or Morrow, Wlad, and Sherrill, throw in two 5-10 spec if needed as long as its not Butler, Aumonte, or Saunders (think Tui, Halman, Mangini). Hey Church, is there a reason you do not view Morrow’s ceiling as a #1, plus plus fastball, solid slide piece, and improving change. You would think that if everything falls right you could have a potential ace. A Felix-Morrow top for 09 would be solid and throw in Tillman possibly being ready as well. On the flip side if you can land Bedard for Jones, Wlad, Sherrill, Tui, and Mangini, you would have a Bedard, Felix, and Morrow top three which can match any top 3 out there.
Uncle Al…Lets assume you have a “young cheap SP and good big LH bat for a corner OF position who plays good defense” and The M’s are talking to you about both of them. What do you do if they tell you Triunfel, Clement, Jones, Morrow, Tillman, Aumont (can’t be traded yet anyway), Ramirez and Butler are off the table for them?
I’d then ask for a couple of Ichiro, Beltre, Putz, Lopez, Sherrill, Kenji, Balentien or Betancourt depending on my teams needs, so who are you recommending trading off to get these young studs if nothing among the majority of the top prospects?
I remember Jason saying a couple weeks back that Morrow is old for having as much improvement to make to get there (Ace status). Mostly, if I recall correctly, he said it was consistency with control and command.
What about replacing Jones or Morrow with Yubet, would that get her done, Yubet, Jones, Sherrill, Tui.You could move Lopez to shortstop in the short term and sign Iguchi to play second. Iguchi and Yubet is a wash offensively and you orbably lose 5-10 runs defensively, but save those runs and then some by keeping Jones or Morrow. Or You could move Vidro to second, Ibanez, to DH and sign Jenkins. You lose defense with Vidro and Lopez, but you gain a majority of that back from getting Ibanez off the field. jenkins is a nice upgrade from Yubet as well.
1) Ichiro CF
2) Vidro 2B
3) Beltre 3B
4) Ibanez DH
5) Sexson 1B
6) Jenkins RF
7) Joh
8) Jones or Morrow LF
9) Lopez SS
Solid offense, solid pitching good outfield D, the only prooblem would be the infield minus Beltre.
His command has been near flawless in Venezuela, 23 K 6 BB in 25 innings.
Jones, Wlad, Sherrill, Tui and Mangini???
Too much for Bedard. I’m still debating whether I’d do it for Santana, but my understanding is that Santana would only decline his no trade option if he were signing a long-term deal with the new team. I’d never give up that list for one questionable player who is very likely to be gone in 2 years. Even though he’s likely to bring a pick back when he departs.
I think it’s a worse idea to trade both Jones and Wlad for one player. Santana is the only one on the market that I’d even think about it.
wish,
That’s extremely probable considering Morrow’s BB rates. Jason are Morrow’s problems based in faulty mechanics. or are they just a lack of command? Or some combination thereof? I don’t like Morrow and think that anything more than a good RP, would be gravy out of him.
talkbaseball,
I’m hoping you meant Jones or Balentien or Jones and someone other than Morrow.. Morrow has enough problems pitching let alone giving him 4 AB’s and asking him to play LF, He’d make Jose Canseco look like an above average fielder.
That said, Why bring Jenkins in? Give Adam Jones his 600 PA’s already, if you’re going to platoon Jenkins with someone it should probably be Wladimir. Also flip their positions.. have Jones play RF, it’s the more demanding OF position defensively.
Also, Can Lopez handle SS? and what are you losing by not playing Ibanez in LF and platooning him with Wladimir? I don’t know that lineup just seems like a weak lineup to me overall.. it’s deep but there’s no big hitter in the middle of it.. I think the Mariners could really use a big hitter.
I burned Vidro’s gloves, he’s not allowed to play 2B.
Yeah I do not think Morrow can play the outfield, meant Wlad if Jones was traded. Jenkins would not platoon, he would be there with Ichiro and Wlad or jones. This is all contingent on trading Yu8bet obviously, bey the the O’s do need a CF and SS for the future and both Yubet and Jones are young, cheap, and talented.
Whats worse, Ibanez in left at spacious Safeco or Vidro at second? Probably a toss up, but you make up for it offensively with Jenkins being much better than Yuni at the plate, not to mention bing a lefty w/ power and you keep Jones or Morrow.
I don’t think Lopez could adequately go back to SS, but you wouldn’t notice it as much if you put Vidro at 2B. You’d be too focussed on Vidro. These are both bad ideas.
Jones should be in the larger LF area at Safeco, not RF. Normally what you are saying is true, so the M’s will probably do exactly that…
Talk, that depends who’s pitching. You know what. There’s no justifying either anymore. No Vidro at 2B and no Ibanez in the OF. They’re bad ideas. Like Edgar playing 3B after about 93. No thanks. Figure something else out because these are not good ideas.
I think Lopez could be an average SS, He has good lateral movement and soft hands, he was always projected as an average SS when in the system. This would only be for this year, next year you move Lopez back and sign one of the avaiable SS free agents. There are plenty of worse starting SS that are worse defensivly than Lopez, one even won a gold glove.
Agreed, but Vidro would be one of the top offensive 2B in the league.
#58, No he really wouldn’t. His legs are shot, and playing him in the field everyday is a great way to wear down an aging playing and watch his offense go in the tank, see Raul’s first half last year. Plus he’s due for a regression simply based on his age. Neither Raul or Vidro should spend more than ten games in the field next year and even thats pushing it.
Morrow just needs work.
The biggest concern I have with Morrow improving his command is that he has other issues to work on as well, such as improving his change and slider.
If command was his only issue, he’d be a GOOD bet to be a No. 4-5 guy in 2008.
In the long run I am not worried so much about him holding value as a starter, but it’s just ridiculous to expect him to perform in a starting role the way the club appears to be leaning on him to do.
Morrow doesn’t have a lot of flaws in his delivery, but in my opinion I think his stride is too short.
Lengthen his stride, speed up his delivery a bit to create an easier, repeatable motion and let it ride for a year.
Jason it seems to me like simply being put back into a starters role and getting on a regular schedule might have really helped Morrow’s command. Think there is anything to that?
Possible, Pat. But there’s only so much value in the winter leagues, and command is different than control.
The numbers say his control has been fine. Six walks in 23 frames is good. He’s throwing strikes.
But is he throwing quality strikes with all of his pitches? That’s not something the stats will tell you.
I got overloaded last weekend and did not finish my report on Morrow and he’s started again since then, so what I’ll do is wait for one more start, make the phone call and get the skinny on the last two and combine the report to include all three.
We’ll see if he’s actually locating his pitches well or if he’s just throwing strikes in general.
#62, That would be great Jason, I’d personally really like to hear from a scout on his progress. It seems like his last start went really well 5.0ip, 1ER, 7K, 1BB. OT, but now that the M’s officially lost out on Kuroda do you see them going harder after Bedard? Going after a Colon/Jennings type player for a 1 year deal? Or overpaying for a Silva/Lohse type?
I think the M’s whiffed on what they thought was a pretty sure thing, which really changes the outlook for what to do in ‘08. With a strong #3-4 in Kuroda, and the addition of Bedard at #1, it could have been Bedard, Hernandez, Washburn, Kuroda, Batista…not bad. But without Kuroda or someone else that strong, giving up the farm for Bedard no longer makes sense. We needed two big improvements to be competitive, and the market just didn’t provide them this year. SO….one would hope the M’s see this, too.
I think they now need to make some less burdensome trades for out-of-favor younger starting pitchers with possible upside, and see if they find one or two who emerge as Batista did. For example, LHP Scott Olsen in Florida, Reyes in St. Louis, Edwin Jackson with Tampa Bay, maybe Dan Cabrera with Baltimore. All these guys could probably be had for much less than Jones or Morrow, as their teams all need experienced relief pitchers and some backup position players, which we have! TIME TO TAKE A GAMBLE AND TO TAKE THE LONG VIEW.
I don’t think the Bedard situation was ever effected in any manner by whether the club landed Kuroda or not.
Wishhiker
That’s just the point. Trading off our young good prospects at this point is just plain stupid. If you can’t find a few starters that could be used in a trade along with some of our other prospects, something is wrong with you because they don’t need two all stars. They need to get to 09′ and 10′ without f’ing everything up. All teams are hording prospects now because of the cost of FA. Don’t think for a minute that other teams don’t have a guy like Balentien who is left handed and is going to need to be moved in the next couple years. The M’s are going to have the same problem next year and that’s why Jason is right about some trades being made this year. The only problem is this god damn Bavasi continually giving away players for nothing that the M’s can use.
Also one thing to remember the winter league hitters arent as good are as disciplined as the ones he will see in the American League.Just food for thought!
Not sure what we could offer for Scott Olsen.
We can offer an OF or a C.
They’ve got young OFs (Maybin, Hermida, Willingham, and one day - H. Ramirez). And I don’t think we want to offer Clement for Olsen.
Maybe, if they are serious about moving Uggla to third, we can offer Lopez?? Lopez and Johnson for Olsen?
Jason - any chance that if Bavasi misses on each and every player he targets (Bedard, Silva, Lohse, etc), we actually start a youth movement?
God I hope he isn’t targeting Silva or Lohse.
Probably no chance, Adam.
The idiot suits will pretty much demand he makes the big club better for 2008.
Hi Jason -
What is your take on Dallas McPherson? Would his swing work well in SafeCo? I’m an SF Giants season ticket holder (but an M’s fan for life) and I hear a lot of scuttlebutt about SF’s interest in Sexson (Jonathan Sanchez is the name I hear a lot down here) and wonder if DM would be a reasonably priced option.
Thanks.
The most interesting thing I am looking forward to from the Morrow Report is whether or not he’s still throwing what seemed to be 70% fastballs to hitters and seeing if they could catch up to it.
He got a lot of misses on it, but man, that’ll never fly in the starting role.
McPherson is a mess.
Big, long swing, causing tons of pitcher’s counts and therefore strikeouts.
Maybe worse, though, is his medical history. He might be worth a minor league deal with an invite to ST, but I don’t know his current status.