One of two things is true, and will be known to the world within the next 72 hours or so. Either Hiroki Kuroda will make it official that he is a member of the Seattle Mariners, or the Los Angeles Dodgers are almost as dumb as the M’s.
The Diamondbacks, believed to be in the running with the Dodgers and Mariners for Kuroda’s services, have apparently notified Kuroda’s representatives that they will not add a year to their 3-year offer that reportedly would pay the right-hander about $10 million per season.
The Dodgers haven’t gone as far as telling agent Joe Urbon that they won’t, but they certainly have had plenty of time to add that fourth year to their 3-year offer that is very close or equal to the D-Backs’ offer, and they have yet to do so.
The Mariners, on the other hand, extended that olive branch more than a week ago, and have the largest and longest contract offer on the table for the soon-to-be 33-year-old.
There are positives and negatives for Kuroda, as his preference to play in the western half of the states, can be achieved by accepting the offer from any of the three clubs, but only two of them play in what is considered “warm weather climate.”
But Ichiro and Kenji Johjima have played a role in the recruitment of Kuroda, and surely he has been told that about the summers in Seattle and how the city’s weather reflects the climates of many of the larger cities in Japan.
The one thing the Mariners can offer that nobody else can is a Japanese speaking catcher, not to mention a World Champion pitching coach. One source says the difference will be the contract first, then Kuroda’s comfort level with the roster and staff.
Advantage Seattle.
As for the Erik Bedard sweepstakes, they haven’t gone anywhere since Tuesday, and the club’s preliminary talks with Geoff Jenkins and Mark Loretta probably aren’t going to go any further than they have.
I still contend that trading Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and George Sherrill, whom the O’s have reportedly demanded to be included in any trade with Seattle despite the presence of Jamie Walker in their bullpen, is not a good idea, since Bedard has made it clear through his agent Mark Pieper that he will test free agency whether he’s a member of the Baltimore Orioles or another team.
In two years, Jones and Morrow are mainstays on any team’s 25-man roster playing for about $1 million combined, while Bedard is hitting the market, leaving the Mariners with nothing to show for the trade.
The only way trading for Bedard makes sense (not including extending his contract since he apparently will not under any circumstances), is if the club goes for it all. Make every move before and after the Bedard deal as if you are one more player away from contending in the uber-tough American League.
I’m very skeptical about the idea of dealing Jones in general, though in the end I would be fine with it if the rest of the roster was tuned up as well, because adding Bedard and Kuroda and not adding at least two upgrades to the offense doesn’t even get the Mariners out of second place in their own division. What a waste that would be - trading two young, cheap contributors with all-star ability only to stay in second place.
But here’s an idea.
We know Jenkins and Milton Bradley are available via free agency, and it sounds like a two-year offer gets either guy right now, so perhaps the Mariners can improve their best case scenario even more than I proposed a few nights ago - without sending Jones anywhere but to left field at Safeco every night in 2008.
The Orioles wants Jones involved because he is a long-term answer at a premium defensive position. Baltimore is shopping Miguel Tejada and will need a new shortstop, too, but those are much tougher to come by. But why does it have to be the M’s version of the young center fielder they demand as part of a deal for Bedard?
What if the Mariners made a prospect-for-prospect deal with the Chicago Cubs, mainly sending Wladimir Balentien to the North Side for Felix Pie? If it took a throw-in to get it done, fine.
Then the M’s could flip Pie in a package to Baltimore for Bedard, which would make me more willing to part with Morrow and Sherrill, too.
The Cubs, with Lou in town, aren’t likely to give Pie the chance to break himself in, and while the same would go for Balentien, if Jose Lopez was the second player coming to Chicago, the Cubs would have to pull the trigger, since they are looking for other options at second base.
Lopez could flourish in a hitter’s park in a better lineup and the Cubs could use Wlad as a trade chip of their own as they continue to look for proven help at shortstop and right field.
Baltimore isn’t demanding a second sacker in return for Roberts anyway, so the M’s could still make a more-than-reasonable offer for both Bedard and Roberts without Lopez being part of it all.
Let’s assume that the Cubs went for the Wlad-Jose for Pie deal.
The new Mariners offer to Baltimore could be as follows - and let me remind everyone that the Brian Roberts idea has not been talked about between the two clubs as far as I know, and I haven’t read it anywhere but here and at USSM, where apparently for about three hours this week, Cameron and I shared the same brain.
Seattle sends CF Felix Pie, RHP Brandon Morrow, LHP George Sherrill and OF Jeremy Reed to Baltimore -
Baltimore sends LHP Erik Bedard, 2B Brian Roberts and MI/CF Freddy Bynum to Seattle -
Why Seattle does this:
It didn’t cost them Jones, for one, and though Wlad could surpass Jones’ offensive output, especially in the NL, AJ’s defense holds so much more value in Seattle, even in left.
Sherrill, while among the top few left-handed relievers in baseball, is about to start making money, and though he wasn’t expensive yet, it’s a good idea to trade him when his value is at its highest, and while you have two other very capable lefty relievers to take up the innings he leaves behind.
Reed’s future certainly isn’t in Seattle, and there are scouts that still believe the right situation could bring out the best in Reed, which at this point is as a solid defensive center fielder in a smaller ballpark, or a below-average offensive left fielder with plus range. Either way he’s a sub for now, but could be a very valuable one for cheap.
Morrow hurts, because they spent a high pick and more than $2 million on him, but the organization is literally stock full of quality power arms (Tillman, Aumont, Ramirez, Butler) and if they have even a 25 percent development rate with them, coupled with the presence of Bedard, Morrow’s departure doesn’t even leave a hole of any kind, temporary or long term.
Why Baltimore does this:
At the very least they get one premium setup man closer in Morrow, who at best could be a No. 3 starter, perhaps even a No. 2 if his changeup continues to improve. Morrow will make near the league minimum for two more years, too.
Pie is a perfect fit for Camden Yards, where his plus range in center will give the club its best outfield defender in more than two decades and offensively Pie is no slouch, either, projecting as a .280/.340/.440 type with plus speed that could net him double figures in triples and 30+ steals per year. If Pie repeats the improvements he made with his plate discipline this past season, he could end up as more of a .300/.350/.450 guy instead - and he’s a left-handed bat.
And don’t ask me why the Mariners don’t keep Pie and send Jones to Baltimore. Jones is the superior player, even when you factor in the park effects versus the handedness.
Pie-Morrow-Sherrill is a better package than what the Boston Red Sox are offering the Twins for Johan Santana (reported as Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie, or Jon Lester, Coco Crisp and Michael Bowden). And it’s right on the heels of the Yankees max offer, too. The presence of Phil Hughes, who projects as a legit No. 2 starter, trumps the M’s package, but it’s very close.
Defensive-minded center fielders who give you plus offense aren’t easy to find, and it’s more difficult to find cheap ones that bat left-handed. Baltimore might even prefer Pie over Jones.
The biggest reason the O’s may seriously consider such a deal is that they aren’t likely to get a better offer from the Dodgers or Mets, and Peter Angelos isn’t going to let McPhail trade Bedard to the rival Sox or Yankees.
The Dodgers could beat any deal Seattle puts out there if they start with Matt Kemp or Clayton Kershaw, but I can’t see any scenario where they add Kershaw to the paclage, and they have already turned down a Bedard for Kemp-Broxton package. If they change their minds, that deal is close to what Seattle could offer, but I’m not sure it’s better.
Though Kemp is a little bit better overall talent than is Jones, Broxton is purely a reliever while Morrow has at leasta fighter’s chance to be an above-average starter and Sherrill gives the O’s a southpaw hammer for the late innings.
The Mets contend that Fernando Martinez is off limits, as he should be for any available pitcher not named Johan Santana, so the best the Mets can do is a Carlos Gomez-Philip Humber-Aaron Heilman package, which is apparently what they offered both the Twins and Orioles for each club’s left-handed starter.
Pie is a better player than Gomez, Humber is a No. 3 starter at best - in the NL - probably a No. 4 in the AL and Heilman is just a middle reliever who is about to start getting expensive via arbitration.
Without adding Martinez or Mike Pelfrey into the trade, which they said publicly they will not do for Bedard, they don’t touch the M’s potential offer.
A Beautiful Quote
Note: I have to leave out actual player, executive and team names from the following quotes, in order to protect the front office member’s identity as well as his organization’s. But this blew me away yesterday.
I called this particular scout type who serves as an assistant to the GM of sorts of a club east of Arizona and west of Japan. I was asking about the current defensive abilities of a player the Mariners have been linked to very lightly, and the conversation crossed over into a few players his club was open to moving. What he ended up admitting to shocked me a bit.
Again, team names, player names, cities, staff names, etc, will be replaced by generic names to protect his identity.
Here it is verbatim as it turned from “can this guy play any defense?” into a free-for-all about his club’s future and plans.
Churchill: So if he’s is just average in the field, why the extension last year?
Smith: Because Sanchez needs a babysitter and Miller was among the very few that don’t speak spanish fluently but still had a good relationship with Sanchez. We kind of spent an extra 20 percent to keep Sanchez happy, and Miller was a pretty good liaison between Sanchez and the staff.
Churchill: What is Sanchez’s problem?
Smith: He’s a piece of work, really, ya know? That’s the main reason why Bob refuses to begin 2008 with him on the roster. We obviously aren’t telling other teams that, but I’d be more than surprised if Sanchez is here when Spring Training begins.
We’re pretty much blowing this up, and even though it’s killing Roger, I guess he just trusts Bob enough to allow him some leash to get things going in the right direction. That’s a first.
Churchill: Blowing it up, meaning everyone goes?
Smith: Anyone that qualifies, yes. It’s not unheard of, and we aren’t even the only club doing that this winter, but it probably would surprise a few to hear it that way if they knew. We’re actually really excited about it. I’m anxious to see how this ends up so we can look forward to winning games.
Churchill: Qualifies how? Free agent to be?
Smith: I don’t know exactly what it is Bob is thinking but the basic parameters are that if the player is likely to not be here after the ‘09 season and can bring back younger, cheaper value where we need it - or will need it two years - we’re going to try and trade that player and bring in the future.
We aren’t just a move or two from contending, and if we deal Sanchez and Ricky and Adam probably fits in their also, and can look forward and see the return helping us compete in two years, then Bob is going to pull the trigger. With Sanchez, though, the best offer is going to win that. In fact, with Ricky, too. The offers we have gotten for Ricky thus far are probably good enough to get it done in the end.
Churchill: So why no deal yet, then? Just holding out for as much as possible?
Smith: Sure, yeah. Bob fully believes he’ll be able to get quite a bit more for Sanchez than what’s been offered thus far, and Ricky’s suitors are all in the right area, but those clubs have more to send back and he’s giving it everything to get those.
Something is very likely to get done on both those guys this month.
Churchill: What about with Johnson, Adam and Finley?
Smith: Adam could go in the same deal as Ricky or Sanchez. Obviously Sanchez is the key guy with the contract but Adam is owed a little bit of cash, too, though we think he adds to a deal like that, rather than being seen as burdening the other club.
Johnson might be one we hang onto, simply because he’s young enough and cheap enough to make sense two years from now. But if we were offered a premium package, he’d be gone, too.
I’m not saying anything you wouldn’t have guessed after I let it out that we were blowing it up, but you do know this has to stay between us. I trust you, but this can’t get published.
Churchill: Can I change all names and teams and not mention positions?
Smith: I’d rather you didn’t, unless you want to send me what you want to use first so I know what’s going to be out there.
Churchill: I can do that.
But tell me why Roger would allow this?
Smith: He’s actually getting tired of being a kind of laughing stock, I think. I’m not in those discussions, but from what I hear he’s just frustrated and is bending on his ways a bit. He thinks Bob is the perfect guy to get this type of job done and it’s why he was brought in.
We have so much competition here and things have been so bad for so long. I’ve been here five years and we haven’t even sniffed at adding a player in July for the stretch run. That’s not what in this town is about. I played here for three years in the 70s and was around the club in the 80s and when I came back after the 2002 season, it was like I’d never been here before. It was like going to lunch with the Grim Reaper around here in November.
Churchill: So if you had to guess where these guys are going, Sanchez, Miller and Ricky anyway, do you have an idea as to what offers have been made?
Bob, Jimmy and I talked last night about all of the offers and the one thing I can say for sure is that we haven’t had an actual offer on Miller. We’re waiting for an official offer on Sanchez, but have had a lot of conversation back and forth. I personally spoke with Las Vegas about Sanchez, but Bob and Jimmy have done most of the work on these.
I think Ricky goes out west somewhere, though. That’s just a feeling, because the other clubs haven’t been nearly as aggressive.
END -
He went on to say that they weren’t having a fire sale because salary didn’t have much to do with the idea. It’s all based on whether they feel that player will be there in 2009, and whether he can help the team contend. They think they have enough young talent to stay interesting for a year or two, and then they may jump back into the market for veterans when the kids are ripe.
I just thought that was unbelievable, and since this clubs is a team that has had talks with the Mariners about a player, as well as other clubs about other players, it struck me as more than just entertaining.
hmm… do we get censored if we spell out what team and what players this deals with? LOL.
I saw your line about being one of the few to not speak spanish fluently and I first though of the M’s, lol. Only a handful of other teams like that - easy to narrow down but ah well - will just wait to see how things pan out.
It’s not the Mariners.
Hmm…I think I’ve got it narrowed down to 2 teams, but I’m not one to throw out a guess. It’s not like you’d tell if I got it right. But it can’t be a team in the AL or NL West because they wouldn’t be talking about trading a player “out west somewhere”.
And as for the O’s + Cubs plan? Makes WAY too much sense. The M’s would never go for it.
This may sound naive, but I wonder if the Mariners are focusing too much on Baltimore and Eric Bedard, at the expense of exploring deals for other young pitchers. I’ve at least heard mention of Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum being available, or Scott Kazmir from the Rays. What if the M’s made Adrian Beltre available in a trade to the Giants, along with, say Clement or Wlad, and a young arm? Obviously, that would create a hole for the M’s, but they could probably find some sort of short-term solution to fill that gap. All else being equal, I’d rather have the stud young pitcher that doesn’t cost much than the $13M 3rd Baseman that, while very good, isn’t great and will probably be gone in two years anyway. If I’m the Giants, I probably see that as at least a better option than, for instance, making a trade for Tejada and moving him to third base.
I’m about 90 percent sure which team it was that Jason was talking about. There were enough clues in the dialogue to put the puzzle together.
I have a guess about who a lot of these people are too. If I’m right, and Mariners are in on any of this, it would be nice to see Ricky in a Mariners uniform next year.
Holy cow, Jason - I kid you not, I ALMOST posted my scenario for a perfect offseason last night, and it included a deal with Ibanez, Lopez, and others going to Chicago for Pie and Sean Marshall.
Of course, I had Pie becoming our LF of the future, while Jones slides to RF, but I agree, the Cubs making great trading partners right now, on several levels.
Am I the only one who has zero idea which team and players are being referred to in that interview??
Jason,
Interesting plan. However, the one problem is the Balentien/Lopez for Pie part.
The Cubs are in win-now mode. Why would they trade their starting CFer? They are after a lefthanded guy to play RF right now. Moving Pie adds another hole in their outfield, plus removes a lefty bat from an otherwise righty-heavey lineup. Right now, they are looking to move Matt Murton (a good, cheap RFer) just because he doesn’t hit lefty. Balentien is thus pretty much out of the question.
That trade is exactly the opposite of what he Cubs are trying to do. Plus, Pie is a better player than Balentien or Lopez, so, outside of team needs, the Cubs would not be getting equal value back.
It just doesn’t make sense for the Cubs to even consider that deal unless they went out and signed Fukudome AND another outfielder. It would be much much easier for them to just go find another second baseman. I have read rumors linking them to the Orioles for Roberts, without Pie in the equation.
I don’t see any way that the M’s can acquire Bedard without including Jones.
Oh, and that mystery team has to be Baltimore.
Gotta say I didn’t get any of that. I think the substitute names is throwing me off. That and the lack of any positional hints.
Ah well.
Jason already kind of said it, we’re interested in a Left handed hitter, trading our left handed starting CF, for a right handed hitting starting RF’er wouldn’t make much sense.
We have a guy who is Balentien without the power and with a twinge better OBP skills in Murton. I’d love Balentien I think his game would work well in a place like Chicago where he could flip the ball out of the park with ease; however, Pie won’t be going anywhere in that type of a deal. I don’t think we have a match for Balentien nor Pie. I think if both teams were serious about a swap, that the Cubs could dangle SP Sean Marshall for Balentien. But we’re looking for a LH hitter, not a right handed hitter.
We really don’t need Sean Marshall and you could really use him in your rotation. It seems the Cubs are in Win-Now mode, like another poster said, this deal still doesn’t make any sense from a Cubs POV.
thr33niL,
Yeah, the names are confusing, but read it again. It becomes obvious who the Sanchez, Miller, and Ricky are.
If you are still confused, scroll to the top of the post. There may are may not be a picture of Ricky right in front of your face.
My question is: who is Adam?
May or may not. Just sayin’.
Jerry,
While currently the Cubs are saying Fukudome would play right field, he can play center in a smaller park like Wrigley and Lou isn’t a big fan of Pie’s. Putting a more experienced player out there has been his choice since he got to Chicago.
And the Cubs get better offensively in that deal (Fukudome, assuming he does go to ChiC, is a better bat than Pie right now, Balentien is very likely to out perform Pie, too) as well as keep their trade options open.
It also takes care of second base for them. Lopez isn’t any worse than four of the five guys they are considering for 2B - Roberts being the only one better.
cubsfan,
The Cubs could still use Wlad to make a deal, for one… two, when the lefty bat you are dealing isn’t a power guy or a major run producer, his handedness matters very little.
See: Ichiro, Seattle Mariners; he’s great, but he doesn’t hit for power so the Mariners are still so so very right-handed.
The balance issue doesn’t come into play very often when a manager is thinking about matchups late in a game if the bat is a singles/gap hitter without a consistent threat to hit the ball out of the ballpark.
It’s so overrated.
Balance is more important to Seattle than most or all other clubs because of their ballpark. It eats righty power bats alive because of its dimensions in left and left-center field.
Only Yankee Stadium is even close in that manner.
The Cubs certainly don’t have to worry about that.
Always good to have balance, sure. And all things being equal, lefty over righty, since most pitchers are right-handed. But it’s not like you’d rather send a .700 OPS lefty up there over a .900 OPS right-handed hitter.
At the plate, Balentien > Pie, regardless of what side of the plate they hit from.
Overall, it’s just an idea, and the type of thing the M’s should be considering if they are really trying to avoid trading away Adam Jones.
Maybe there isn’t a fit with the Cubs, or anywhere else, but it’s the type of thing that smart clubs do.
Jason,
Yes, the Cubs could use Wlad to make a deal, however, why give up a superior trade piece in Pie for an inferior one in Wlad. Jose Lopez isn’t the type we’re looking for at 2b anyway, we have a guy who is capable hits right handed, in Mark DeRosa. I hear you on the balance issue ; however, Felix Pie is hoped to develop into a major run producer. It just does not make sense from a Cubs standpoint to move Pie; however, Sean Marshall for Wladimir Balentien would make sense, if a trade partner were wanting Balentien over Marshall..
As for the interview with the Asst. GM, that’s mighty interesting. It’s also sad that decisions can be made to keep players happy in the clubhouse rather than what is best for the team.
I like the Mariners lineup, and their young players, Jones Balentien, and Clement are close if not ML ready now. It will be interesting to see what the Mariners have planned for Balentien (trade or platoon him with Ibanez?)
Marshall is a No. 5 starter in the AL. Hill makes sense. I think you are underestimating Balentien.
And Pie may become a tweener, but he’s never going to fit into the 3-5 slots in a good lineup.
There’s a reason Lou isn’t all that fond of him at this point, and it’s NOT because he’s young.
And Lopez > DeRosa, too. Let’s not forget about park factors when comparing these two. And Lopez still has developmental time left. DeRosa is what he is.
But again, maybe there isn’t a fit, that’s fine. I’m not suggesting that this exact idea is perfect and should get done.
The whole point is that if Seattle wants to avoid trading Jones and still land Bedard from Baltimore, they need to be considering a trade that includes Balentien or Clement (plus another player) to land some other club’ near-ready SS/CF, and flipping that player to Baltimore instead of Jones.
BTW, Fukudome has told the Padres no.
Down to two teams.
You edited your post while I was typing mine, deviant. Anyhow about the handedness issue, since you already brought up that most pitchers are LH, a hitter that hits for an .700 OPS, with an .800-.850 OPS vs RHP, (.550-.600 vs LHP) is more valuable at the dish vs a RHP than someone who has an OPS of 1.100 vs LHP and .700-.750 vs RHP.
Basically your asking me which kind of player would I want up there in a particular situation, and I’d rather have the guy who hits well against the righties.
That said, Pie’s CHONE projection is a .265/.317/.405 (.722) line which i find on the pessmistic side. Bill James is probably more reasonable .283/.333/.456. Either way he’s going to be above average for a 1st year CF.
FWIW Balentien’s projection CHONE .225/.291/.396 (.687). in RF as a Right handed hitter.
Given the two, I’d much rather have Pie. Yes, if the Mariners were smart and caught Jim Hendry with his pants down… it could happen otherwise it seems unreasonable given the Cubs current demands.
More on Wlad…
The regulars around here probably know this, but for those who haven’t seen him much or ready any good SRs on him, here’s a quick handy guide to Balentien’s value.
Ready?
Bat
Balentien > Jones.
Defensive Range in a Corner
Balentien > League Average
Baserunning
Balentien > League Average
Baseball Acumen
Balentien > Average Top Prospect
If he was left-handed, he’d be among the top 10 prospects in baseball.
The separation between Wlad and Jones begins and ends with their defensive value. And while that cannot be underestimated, particularly in the AL and in a park like Safeco, that is the only major advantages Jones has on Wlad, and Jones, until he exhausted his status, was considered by everyone with a clue to be one of the game’s top 10-15 prospects.
Raw splits don’t go deep enough.
Give me the better hitter period. Matchups dont even come up every GAME, let alone every at-bat.
You can have your lefty bat versus the majority of pitchers, since most are righties, but I’ll take the better bat in general and all else being equal, I’ll out hit you every year.
Handedness is overrated. Way overrated.
Not useless, just overrated.
In other words…
Adrian Beltre over Mike Lamb.
What?
On what metric is Jose Lopez better than Mark DeRosa.
Age might be it.. Lopez is 24, DeRosa is 32.
Since they play the same position..
WARP3: DeRosa 5.9 Lopez 3.9 (2007 )
EQA: DeRosa .268 Lopez .221 (2007)
OPS+: DeRosa :102 Lopez 71.
What metric IS Lopez better than DeRosa?
As for Marshall for Balentien, I think you’re either undervaluing Marshall or overvaluing Rich Hill. Sure Rich Hill strikes out more hitters, but Marshall gets guys out in various ways and isn’t as susceptible to the gopher ball.. I think Marshall at the end of his career has a shot to be as good if not better than Hill.
I’m just going to agree to disagree with you. I agree that handedness is overrated, give me the superior hitter (if we’re not talking situational hitting , which I find overrated as well). and I really like Balentien. I just don’t know if he’s worth Pie right now and disagree with you on his value. You also rank Carlos Triunfel 3rd on your list of the top 5 prospects in the game right now.. Might say something about your allegiances. I love your work, and the site is great.
Jason, do the M’s even value or like Balentein? I love the kid, but I cant get excited about him, because I just have this feeling the M’s dont think he’s for real or dont value him enough..
Hill>Marshall today.
Tomorrow, unfortunately, doesn’t matter for Seattle much.
Both guys have a chance to get a little bit better before they done developing, I’ll take Hill who misses bats, giving him a better shot at long term success.
Not a fan of Marshall’s at all, but what we think doesn’t matter. I can guarantee you Seattle values Hill over Marshall.
Lopez isn’t done developing, and is at least as good or better defensively and signed for cheap through 2011.
I don’t have the energy at the moment to look up the defensive metrics, but there’s a lot of value in Lopez that you can’t use Sabermetrics for, because of his developmental stages.
Not to mention DeRosa, at 33 years of age for 2008, is much closer to decline than anything else.
And again, AL vs. NL.
One more thing, what do Cubs fans, assuming you know many of them, think of the idea that Prior could be dealt?
They do, blowgun, they just prefer Jones, understandably and rightly so.
They aren’t looking to trade Wlad, they are looking to make a trade to get better. Wlad is a chip they’ll use without thinking twice, but if you are the O’s, ask yourself which guy you’d rather have.
I need to take a 24-hour break from comments, to work on the Morrow Report and the book some more.
I apologize for not responding for awhile starting now, cubsfan.
Good fun stuff, though. Don’t be a stranger.
It’s assumed that Prior will be non-tendered. The Cubs have told Prior, we’d like an option for 09, or we’ll pay you for 09′ an idea of which he’s been hesitant. The assumption is that he’ll be nontendered, so getting anything for him would be a huge plus.
Attitudes from around the Cubs blogosphere, have been mixed, there’s always that worry that Prior will end up putting all the potential he showed in 03′ together and becoming the dominant pitcher he was. Others are saying good riddance.
If we can get a couple decent prospects for him, I’d be happy with it, considering I don’t think the Cubs are going to offer him a contract in 08′.
being tired of being a laughing stock..
and sanchez were the two clues that did it for me.
baltimore has three “veteran” players seemingly available..tejada(sanchez)
bedard
roberts
if i’m baltimore i’d probably blow up the roster too. if not for jones,o’s probably aren’t even talking to the m’s. so yeah,jones would have to be included for bedard.
if you want a “real pipe dream” do a bedard/markakis/roberts blockbuster trade…
ichiro -cf
roberts - 2b
ibanez - dh
beltre 3b
markakis - rf
sexson/clement 1b
johima - c
wlad/jenkins - lf
yuni - ss
like to see ibanez contract extended also. as a dh not as a lf.
The one way that I think the M´s and Cubs would be a good trade match is if they don’t get Fukudome, and the M’s are willing to deal Ibanez. Then, you have the start of a trade. However, I would imagine that Murton, Prior, and maybe some other players besides Pie would be in play.
Unfortunately, the M’s also think that they are in win-now mode. If I were running the club, I would take advantage of the sellers market and deal vets.
The Cubs are also thin at catcher, and with Lou at the helm, would probably be leaning towards vets. If Bavasi were smart, he would call Hendry and offer up Ibanez, Johjima, and perhaps Sherrill for Geovany Soto, Matt Murton, Prior, Marshall, and Tyler Colvin. None of those players are elite guys, and the Cubs wouldn’t be creating any major holes. Perhaps that is too much, but the Cubs would get to keep Pie, have their lefty bat and an upgrade at C and in the pen, and the M’s would be getting a lot of talent for two solid vets.
Sherrill is a lefty, and a very good one at that.
I like Murton and I think Prior is worth taking a flyer on, but Ibanez is a productive, left-handed hitter at a reasonable salary. He isn’t the type of chip I would trade away for those sorts of players. Essentially, since Prior is a gamble, it would be Ibanez for Murton, which simply isn’t equitable.
cubsfan or anyone else that knows: what’s the scoop on Daryle Ward? He put up pretty good numbers in limited action last year. Is he actually a good hitter or is it a small sample size thing? Is he completely useless at first base?
Daryle Ward looked really good last year in limited action. He was in a bench/backup role last year and filled it very well. He started for a wee while Derrek Lee was out for throwing a punch at Chris Young and the offense didn’t miss a beat with him in the lineup. He showed he can still hit the ball a long way when he makes contact and was a very patient hitter. That being said there’s no way I would want to give him 500 PA’s. He simply would be overmatched in that role but in a PT role, I like him a lot. (Plus he only makes 1-2 mil a year.. which is hardly anything). Ward would be good in a platoon role at 1b or in RF, where he played some too. as long as he was only getting 200-300 PA a year, he’d be great. The Cubs did pick up his 08′ option, so he’s a Cub at least in the short term.
As for the Sherill move, oops. We still have two good minor league lefties in Geoff Jones who pitched very well at AA Tenn and could end up on the Cubs minor league team, also we have Carmen Pignatiello and Neal Cotts. All of which could be the 2nd lefty behind Eyre. That said, I don’t think Sherill is enough to make me part with that package. Ibanez is only signed to one year, and that is all the Cubs are really looking for right now with the belief that Tyler Colvin will be ready by 09′. So I doubt that the Cubs would really part with more than Marshall + or Murton + .
So are the cubs looking to trade Sean Marshall? I wonder why Jason doesn’t like him.
‘One of two things is true, and will be known to the world within the next 72 hours or so. ‘
Don’t think that Kuroda will decide till end of this week. He will visit cities of interest, will consider the enviroment and than decide. Will take time I think.
Dec. 16th will be an auspicious day according to the japanese traditional calendar so I think he will make a press conference on that day about his contract.
The 72-hour window is about LAD deciding whether to offer him four years.
Because of they or AZ does not, he’s going to sign in Seattle.
The more I think about it, the more I’m convinced that signing Kuroda will be a big mistake. Everything I’ve read about him, including here, indicates that there’s absolutely nothing special about him as a pitcher (other than the fact that he’s never faced major league hitters), and yet we’re committing something on the order of $10-$11 Million per year for 4 years.
And this is from a team that wouldn’t take a chance on Jose Guillen accepting arbitration. I just don’t get it.
Let me help you relax, GLS.
First off, with Guillen, yes a mistake. But it had nothing to do with the club worrying that he’d accept.
The suits think they are making a statement, to and with the league office, to not support players that have been connected to the steroid/HGH situation.
They let Guillen go to avoid any connection that, and to appease the commissioner’s office the same way they with the draft’s slotting system.
They wanted no part of Franklin after he failed his test and was suspended and the only reason why Morse hasn’t been released is because his situation was very explainable and was not a second offense, rather a second positive test from the first offense.
Besides, he’s a minor leaguer.
In regards to Kuroda, ignore the money. Pretend his salary will be the second lowest in the rotation.
Seriously. Because as long as the front office doesn’t let Kuroda’s contract stop them from going out and getting better on a regular basis, it doesn’t matter what he’s being paid - provided he can perform enough to be a No. 4-5 starter throughout at least three years of the contract, preferably all four.
There is no reason to believe he can’t. No, he’s not special, and I disagree with those that claim he’s got No. 3 stuff, but he’s better than Weaver-Ramirez, and he’s more likely to get the club 190-200 legit innings, or more, than Feierabend, Baek, White, Rowland-Smith or Morrow.
Rather go get some other high-reward types, but if they sign Kuroda, just ignore the money part.
What would your list of “other high-reward types” be?
Marshall and Hill are similar pitchers and when Hill followed Marshall they’d tee off on him because they’ve seen one so they were prepared for the other. Marshall is seen as expendable in the search for a left handed power bat. Ibanez would qualify. Marshall is a guy you’d like to have in the back of your rotation, his ceiling is probably no more than a 3rd starter in the AL, his basement is a 5th starter. He’s pretty level and you know exactly what to expect while he is on the mound.
You’d be better off giving the Cubs something for Marshall than signing Kuroda IMO and I’m so glad the Cubs aren’t in on his services.
Wait, if R.A. Dickey doesnt have a UCL, how can he pitch?
I get what you’re saying, but at a certain point, these deals add up and they do stop the M’s from making moves.
Assuming they sign Kuroda, this year’s payroll will include something like $11M to Kuroda, $10M to Washburn, and $7.5M to Vidro, not to mention $15.5M to Sexson.
I can live with the Sexson salary and chalk that up to the player just not working out the way they’d hoped. You win some and you lose some. But as for the others, I just look at those committments and wonder what else could be done with that money. The Mariners clearly have resources, but they seem to prefer the approach of spreading that money out among multiple mediocrities rather than going after truly great players. But, perhaps I’m simplifying and the issue is more complicated than that.
There are too many contracts coming off the books after this and next year for that to be a concern, GLS.
It doesn’t mean the mistakes aren’t mistakes, of course, but we shouldn’t worry so much on Kuroda’s deal.
Sexson and Ibanez are off the books after 08, and Washburn after 09. That’s almost 30 mil.
Cubsfan I think quite a few of us would like to see Ibanez traded in a deal like that. The problem is that Ibanez is the guy that talks to reporters when the losing streak hits 7 games, etc. and the FO seems very unlikely to trade him at all. He’s considered the face of the franchise for a few reasons and I don’t think the M’s will trade him at all. Besides, the M’s are in the same boat with needing more LH power and can’t really afford to get rid of the one player on the team that really provides that now.
Throw in Beltre after 09 and it’s over 40 Mil.
I don’t see any scenario where the M’s and Cubs hook up in a deal involving Ibanez.
I understand what you’re saying Jason, but it’s really the underlying decision making that I wonder about. That’s what’s most frustrating.
But, you’re right. Lots of money is getting freed up over the next couple of years and we can point to the M’s staying away from super mega-contracts for that.
This is the way I look at it.
Kuroda>Jackson, Feierabend, Weaver, Ramirez, RRS, White, Morrow in 2008. That’s a pretty good bet.
It would take a lot for Jackson to turn things around enough to provide No. 4 performances in 30+ starts this year.
He has better stuff, but as you can see, stuff doesn’t get it done.
I ignore the money. And so do the Mariners to a large extent. I don’t want them to give him 4/40+, but it’s not worth even talking about.
If it was Silva that was getting the dough, I’d cry about it. But it’s a Japanese player coming to a team financed by a Japanese company.
And it’s not like Kuroda is likely to suck. He’s just very likely to be Jarrod Washburn.
And ya know what, 10-11 mil per year is what Washburns are going for these days.
The Kuroda thing doesn’t bug me one bit. Especially since it’s not a matter of Kuroda OR Bedard.
It’s not like Kel Igawa sucks, he’d be a decent 4 in the league..right…. right?
doubtful
Igawa got culture shock, though the reports I got on him weren’t as good as Kuroda’s particularly in the areas of feel and reliability.
He’s not as head strong as the Yankees thought he might be.
But Igawa also doesn’t have the stuff Kuroda has, and while Kuroda is no ace and lacks a true out pitch, Igawa is Jarrod Washburn with worse command, no feel and a worse set of secondary pitches.
Which is why he spent so much time out of the rotation in NY.
Jason, any truth to the rumor about Affeldt’s agent contacting the M’s about him coming here to be a starter? I saw this and thought it was very interesting.
Haven’t heard that, but I wouldn’t doubt it. He tried that two years ago - marketing himself with KC as a starter.
He was awful in that role, however, so I don’t see how he’s any better than RRS.
It’s definately the Orioles. Lemme see if I’ve cracked The Churchill Code
Sanchez - Miguel Tejada
Miller - Brian Roberts
Ricky - Erik Bedard (Rik-e, an anagram for Erik, nicely done)
Adam - Aubrey Huff
Johnson - Melvin Mora (I’m not sure on this one)
Finley - Jay Payton or Roberto Hernandez (Nothing was said about him, so I’m guessing here)
Nope. But I wouldn’t tell you anyway.
Yeah I know. Just having some fun with it. I actually thought it was the Pirates at first.
Jason,
Couple quick questions regarding your comparison of Balentien to Jones. I was a bit shocked when I read that you believe Balentien to have the upper hand offensively. # 1 is that an ‘as it stands’ now statement or do you believe he also has the higher ceiling?
# 2 If Jones is ’stuck’ in a corner OF spot in Seattle doesn’t that limit his defensive value over Balentien?
# 3 is your comparison a general consensus in the scouting world or is it more of a opinion formed by personal experience?
I guess I just don’t get why teams around the league seem to be asking for Jones first and foremost if he is not substantially more talented than Balentien.
1. It is an as it stands now statement. It’s not a large difference.
2. Yes, it does, but at Safeco left field almost needs a center fielder to cover the area. So Jones>>Balentien.
3. Both, it seems.
And center fielde is a premium spot that is very difficult to fill with a player that is above average both offensively and defensively. So Jones is far more valuable than Balentien.
How many Beltrans and Hunters and Grady Sizemore’s are there compared to players with similar offensive ability or better that play left, right, third, first or DH?
Jason, how do you see Claudio Vargas performing in the AL?
Jason,
Why am I not excited about Seattle’s young prospects? I mean I consider myself fairly knowledgable about the minor leagues and I don’t think I have a bias east or west coast. I admit that when it comes to the Cubs I could be slightly biased but I don’t overrate the Cubs system or anything.
I’m just not excited with Jeff Clement, Adam Jones, or Brendan Morrow? Why is this? (I’m not asking this literally, so please don’t spend too much time analysing me here).
Who is the last home town prospect that has had a major impact on the franchise? Felix Hernandez? Okay, now what about a positional prospect, I remember when Bucky Jacobsen came up and had a good year I believe that was 01 or 00′ or 02′, people went crazy, it was Bucky-mania. Then, he vanished quicker than Roanoke Island. I just have a hard time really getting excited because Seattle isn’t a team that is well known for developing their prospects, A-Rod doesn’t count, any team could have drafted him and he would have become a great player. That was a slam -duhnk.
Seriously, why do the Mariners not develop position players as well as they did in the early 90’s when guys like Jay Buhner, Randy Johnson, Griffey Jr, and others all came up from the minors.
Griffey was much like AROD a slam dunk, Buhner and RJ came from other systems
Since the late 90s the franchise has made mistake after mistake in the way they ran their player development system.
The scouting was ok, at times, but the org. didn’t care enough about the farm to put the money into it that it deserves.
They were all about the big league club and didn’t seem to believe the farm could serve them enough to care.
Look up their drafts. Some of them were awful, yes, but look at how many times they surrendered first round picks, or second round picks, or reached high in the draft, or even failed to sign a pick, for various idiotic reasons…
But, this is a different regime, and while all prospects, no matter the organization, are more suspect than anything else, nobody can deny the solid talent Seattle has put together since 2003-2004.
Most know about Jones, Clement, Morrow, and even Balentien to an extent, but none of them are the top talent in the system, and that tells you the depth they are building of late.
It’s not a top five system, it isnt even top 10 now that Jones and Morrow don’t count as spects anymore, but it’s a solid group of talents, spread between bats and arms, and the only downside is the best of the pitchers are still 2-4 years away.
But failing to value Jones and Clement and company simply because they are prospects from the Mariners system, as opposed to another system with a better history of developing players, is extremely shortsighted and irresponsible.
It would be different if Woody Woodward and Frank Mattox were still calling the shots in those areas, but since Bob Fontaine is the scouting and PD director - and has one of the better track record in the game in his field (White Sox, Halos)- the historical failures of the Mariners prospects mean very little if anything at all.
Following your line of thinking, Felix Pie has little chance to do anything but fail, and none of the frontline pitching prospects in Cubsdom have a chance in hell of remaining healthy (Wood, Prior).
When was the last time a much ballyhooed Cubs position prospect panned out for them? Whenw as the last time they had a much talked about position prospect? Why is Brian Dopirak a non-prospect now?
Soto has a shot, but he’s far from proven. All teams have this issue. remember Drew Henson?
Edwin Encarnacion? Brian Anderson?
The one thing the M’s had issues with int he 90s and early this decade that bit them as much as any system not named Pittsburgh is arm injuries to top pitching prospects.
re:Gorilla
Edgar came from the system, too, let’s not forget. As did Putz, Betancourt, the rest of the bullpen, and AROD and Junior as was mentioned. It’s not like the Mariners never get anything from their farm system.
And it’s in better shape with higher ceiling/lower risk talents than it’s been since I can remember.
And cubsfan, I can assure you that the Orioles aren’t undervaluing Jones because he came up through the Seattle system. They prefer him over Colby Rasmus, Atlanta’s Schafer and your own Felix Pie.
Maybe I was unclear I don’t fault the Mariners, (I do fault the Cubs)