It’s Far Too Quiet, But…

It’s been one week since the Mariners inked right-hander Carlos Silva to a ridiculous contract and announced that they were “not done” and still wanted “one more starter.”

In the seven full days since Silva’s press conference where he was awarded the No. 52, even though that has been George Sherrill’s uniform number for the past two-plus seasons, the M’s haven’t done squat.

Normally the lack of money spent or trades made would be a good thing, since the club doesn’t have a great track record of either over the past three years. But it’s difficult to imagine GM Bill Bavasi staying so quiet this winter, when his job is on the line again in 2008.

Being on the hot seat has already proven to mean that it’s a win-now-or-else situation for the front office, and standing pat and hanging onto the club’s farm products isn’t the way to win in 2008.

One executive of an NL club recently let it slip that the Mariners are linked in trade talks with every team his own club has been negotiating with, including the Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants.

Clearly the Twins and Orioles are all about Johan Santana and Erik Bedard, but what are the M’s and Giants talking about? Possibly Richie Sexson or Noah Lowry - or both.

“They’re going to make some more moves, I’d bet anything on it,” said the front office rep. “They have too many seeds planted. I don’t think they are willing to part with enough to get Santana, but Bedard is possible and we think the Mariners are our main competition, judging from what we are being told from everyone we talk to on the other side.”

We pretty much know the M’s will make more moves. But will they be smart moves that don’t ignore 2009 and beyond?

“Considering how much action they (Baltimore) are getting on Bedard, if Seattle was going to give up too much, they would have already done so. I think now that they have the kid and three veteran arms, they can avoid that panic trade.”

Sure, they can. But will they?

“From what our guys are saying, it sure appears that Bill and Bob aren’t into trading Jones, let alone all the talk about their arm (Morrow) or any of the veterans,” said a scout from one of the half-dozen clubs the Mariners have had discussions with since the end of the Winter Meetings. “I know Bob from our days with the White Sox and it sounds like he’s rubbing off on Bill and the rest of their decision makers. He loves the younger talents and if he had his way he’d bet on (keeping and developing) them every time over the big contract guys.”

Another representative from the same club had this to say about the trade market this winter:

“I think the buyers have a good chance to turn this into a buyer’s market for once. Cincinnati, Seattle, Boston and the two New York teams could have caved in the two months since the market opened and none of them have done so. All of them have what it takes to get the pitcher they want, but refuse to get taken in a deal. It’s smart, but can they hold out?

“In the past few years, Seattle hasn’t, but things are different. They believe they already have an above-average roster and having added Silva they aren’t acting out of desperation. If I had to predict, I think the Mets and Reds get those two arms, but at fairly high prices.

“Mets get Santana, but it’s going to cost them both outfielders (Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez) and two of their pitching prospects. I see Cincinnati snagging Bedard if they are willing to go Bailey-Votto-Cueto. Baltimore will have to come down from their demands and have already decided Bedard has very little chance to begin the year in their rotation, no matter what they are saying to the media.”

What else might Seattle be able to do for starting pitching? Here is the next group of interesting arms the M’s can look to obtain, based on the fact that in some form or another, each may be be available this off season:

Scott Olsen, LHP - He is available, but Florida is trying to play the game with clubs inquiring about any of their starters, and feel like they are better off waiting on Olsen. If he has a solid start to the 2008 season, his value skyrockets.

Noah Lowry, LHP - Seems like Sabean prefers to include Lowry in a package deal for a bigger, proven bat rather than the small return he’d bring by himself. Lowry is probably a No. 4 at best in the AL, anyway.

Daniel Cabrera, RHP - Baltimore isn’t shopping the big right-hander, but any assortment of young talent that fills holes for the O’s up the middle would probably pry him away from McPhail.

Edwin Jackson, RHP - Tampa is leaning toward using Jackson out of the pen in ‘08, but they are better off getting one 25-man roster piece in return for him since they have Shields, Garza, Kazmir, Howell and Sonnanstine to round out a strong starting five, and Jackson has never fared well in relief and would cheapen his value should the club look to deal him during the season.

Chris Capuano, LHP - Milwaukee appears to be looking for ready or near-ready answers at catcher, third base, second base or center field in return for Capuano, which might be asking too much. He might be a solid fit in Seattle, but trading Jeff Clement or Adam Jones for a No. 4 starter isn’t happening.

Ian Snell, RHP - If the Pittsburgh Pirates were smart, and they have to be smarter than they were last season with their new GM in place, they’d wait until the Bedard and Santana situations have played themselves out and then see what Snell might bring back. He’s a solid No. 3 and has the stuff to pitch effectively in either league, despite his physical stature.

If the Bucs are shopping Jason Bay, they should be open to shopping Snell as well, though he’s not even arbitration eligible until after the ‘08 season.

Neal Huntington has told teams all winter that left-hander Tom Gorzelanny is pretty much off limits until he can assess his future for another season, but that Snell could be in play if the deal filled three holes, including center field or shortstop.

Anthony Reyes, RHP - St. Louis has indicated that they might be willing to trade their former top prospect, but like everyone else will be asking for a king’s ransom. Reyes has No. 2 stuff and decent command, but has struggled with consistency and has been up and down with his velocity, despite the denial that he’s been hurt.

Most scouts believe he can pitch in the American League, but he’ll need to re-establish his fastball down in the zone to keep the home run totals down. He gave up 16 in just over 100 innings in 2007 and has surrendered 35 in 206 career innings.

“His fastball is just too straight right now,” said one scout. “He got away with that in the minors because he was showing better command and he could win with his offspeed stuff. And I’m not so sure he has future success in a rotation anywhere; if Duncan can’t get it from him, who can?”

Mel Stottlemyre?

Depending on what it takes, of course, I’d love to see Reyes in Mariners uniform. He’s a horse, a smart pitcher with a strong work ethic, he’s still just 26 and sat 90-94 with his four-seamer. A new voice and new ideas can always be the difference for ballplayers, and Reyes has good enough stuff to be the M’s version of Mets southpaw Oliver Perez.

For 2008 he’s just a project with upside, but when the competition is an unreliable Cha Seung Baek, a not-quite-ready Ryan Feierabend, the terrible-to-atrocious Horacio Ramirez and three relievers (Morrow, Sean White, Ryan Rowland-Smith), Reyes sure sounds like a good idea.

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PI’s 25-man Roster… & Other Stuff

Until about three hours ago (it’s 4:30 AM on Friday, December 21 right now), I was simply going to post my proposed 25-man Seattle Mariners roster for 2008, with some mildly in-depth analysis attached.

But after reading the Seattle P-I this morning, I have so much more I want to bring up and talk about. And you can thank Howard Lincoln and Bill Bavasi for that. So if you can’t stand it when I ramble on and rip the front office, write them a letter, not me.

First, here’s my proposed roster for 2008, and it does not include any recommended trades or further free-agent acquisitions. The idea here is to re-position the 25-man with the right available players, and to use them in the right places. And I’m not just talking about who should play left field and who should DH.

Below the table, I’ll explain what I did with the roster and why I did it… and then some.

*Stats below are a loose projection for ‘08 and present solely for general purposes, not an actual prediction or formulated projection of any kind.

Regular Lineup (not the batting order)
Pos. PLAYER G AVG OBP SLG ‘08 $
1B Richie Sexson 135 .240 .325 .450 14.00
2B Jose Lopez 145 .270 .310 .425 .500
3B Adrian Beltre
155 .285 .330 .500 12.00
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
155 .285 .310 .420 1.25
C Kenji Johjima
135 .280 .320 .450 5.20
DH Raul Ibanez 145 .275 .330 .450 5.50
LF Adam Jones
150 .255 .300 .420 .400
CF Ichiro 155 .340 .390 .430 17.00
RF Wladimir Balentien
140 .250 .310 .430 .400
Bench
2 Willie Bloomquist
60 .250 .290 .320 .950
15 Jamie Burke 50 .275 .325 .390 .500
9 Yung Chi Chen
50 .260 .310 .385 .400
32 Jose Vidro
90 .275 .335 .385 8.50
32 Charleton Jimerson
50 .240 .280 .400 .400
Starting Rotation
Pos. PITCHER G/GS IP ERA K ‘08 $
29 Felix Hernandez
33/33 220 3.50 200 .600
5 Carlos Silva
34/34 210 4.40 100 12.00
16 Miguel Batista
32/32 200 4.30 140 9.00
64 Jarrod Washburn
32/32 195 4.50 120 10.00
23 Sean White
30/20 135 4.75 70 .400
Bullpen
24 J.J.Putz 65/0 70 2.50 80 3.40
50 Sean Green
60/0 65 3.75 55 .400
51 George Sherrill
55/0 45 3.00 55 1.00
28 Mark Lowe
40/0 40 3.50 40 .400
7 Kameron Mickolio
40/0 40 3.75 35 .400
82 Ryan Rowland-Smith
35/8 80 3.75 65 .420
12 Eric O’Flaherty
55 50 4.20 40 .420

That’s my 25-man roster as of December 21. Let me address some issues, as I am certain the above roster will raise some questions as to the line of thinking that went into it.

The Outfield
It is imperative that the Mariners start Adam Jones in left field and use Ibanez elsewhere. If that ends up being right field because in all actuality the club will not start both Jones and Balentien, then Ibanez in right isn’t the end of the world. He’ll still hurt the club there, but it’s far better than the damage he’ll do in left.

If Sexson is moved, Ibanez can play first base, at least some, and not be the detriment he is in left field. Thanks to Dave Cameron for first bringing this to the attention of all of us diehards here in Seattle. Until Dave made an issue of the importance of defense in left field at Safeco, nobody was really talking about it. But it’s more than a legitimate issue, and Ibanez should never get any closer to left field than when he rounds third base on one of his 4-baggers.

The club is also better off using Balentien in right over Ibanez and while using two rookies out there is something Bill Bavasi told all of us he wouldn’t do, he would if he was smart enough, and had the gonads, to do it. Even if you assume Wlad’s absolute worst-case scenario at the plate (say, .230/.280/.380), his defensive value over Ibanez in right field makes up the difference between he and Jose Vidro, who would be the odd-man out of the starting lineup.

The Bench and Bullpen
Obviously, you can’t carry five starters, seven relievers and still have a five-man bench. Kudos if you caught that.

Let me explain.

Early in the year it does make some sense to carry seven relievers because the starters, and the bullpen to a lesser extent, continue to stretch their arms out in the colder weather of April and May. I’d carry seven relief arms through the end May, using four reserves up to that point as well.

Then I’d add a bench man, but it wouldn’t be any of the five I listed above… which brings us up to what I would do with Jeff Clement.

The Mariners are probably going to take Clement north with them at the end of March, which is a mistake. He still has a decent chance to turn into a regular catcher (tons of value in that, too), and he should head back to Tacoma to work on that with Rob Johnson and Roger Hansen, and to continue refining his plate skills - even though he’s a big-league ready bat already.

Scouts, and Hansen, have told me more than once that two full years of work is enough, even for a catcher, for a college draftee to have shown whether he can hack it in the show or not, both defensively and with the stick.

Clement has not had two seasons, however. He had six weeks in 2005, an injury and rush-job interrupted 2006 season, and finally a full schedule last season. He’s healthy heading into ‘08 and should be sent back to Tacoma for at least eight weeks to fine-tune until the M’s are ready to give up the seventh reliever and add a position player.

Clement can help Burke, or whoever the veteran ends up being, back up Johjima, giving the club a way to keep Joh from wearing down during the middle three months of the season as he’s done two years in a row now.

On days he isn’t catching, Clement can share the DH spot and first base with Ibanez and Sexson, while Ibanez, in order to keep his lefty bat in versus right-handed pitching, can spell Balentien in right or Sexson at first.

If Kameron Mickolio and Mark Lowe are healthy and without medical restrictions, both begin the year in my bullpen. There is more question with Lowe than Mickolio, but both have a chance to make the decision for Bavasi and McLaren by pitching well in March.

I would keep Rowland-Smith in the bullpen, where he’s best suited, giving McLaren three quality lefties to use, possibly reducing the chances, slightly, that the bullpen is mis-used.

The Rotation
The first four are no-brainers, since Felix Hernandez is the ace-in-the-making and the other three are set to make $31 million this upcoming year, but the fifth spot I give to Sean White.

Cha Seung Baek, Ryan Feierabend, R.A. Dickey, Robert Rohbaugh and Justin Thomas are also candidates, and Dickey is probably the current in-house favorite among the above five and will almost certainly make the club (just not for me), but White is the best combination of stuff, command and durability.

Baek is unreliable due to health concerns with his shoulder, Feierabend needs 30 more starts in the minors, Rohrbaugh has No. 6 stuff and Thomas has not proven he can stay off the disabled list, either.

If White fails miserably, which is possible, Rowland-Smith is right there to gobble up his starts and is capable of putting up No. 5 starter performances. His pen spot could be taken up by a number of arms, including White or Baek.

As you can see, Brandon Morrow is not on the roster, and this is where the P-I piece by John Hickey comes into play.

Bavasi stated yesterday that Morrow is almost certain to be on the 25-man roster to begin 2008, which isn’t a surprise, but invokes the proverbial reach for the barf bag for those who truly understand this game.

“If we add a starter, then he pitches in the bullpen,” Bavasi told the P-I. “If we don’t, then either Brandon or Horacio Ramirez would be the fifth starter. And if it’s Ramirez, Morrow would be at the end of the bullpen.”

The club is apparently still trying to add another starter, and that arm is probably not going to be Erik Bedard because Bavasi isn’t keen on the idea of trading Morrow, let alone Jones and Morrow both.

“He (Morrow) is highly, highly unlikely to leave,” Bavasi said. “I’m not saying he couldn’t be traded, but it’s unlikely.”

This could be posturing, for sure. But the M’s made the mistake with Morrow last year, so it’s not shocking that they’d do it yet again. Morrow is probably going to be mis-used in 2008, just like he was in ‘07.

Whether he starts the season in the rotation or the bullpen, it’s the wrong move and greatly decreases the chance that Morrow ever becomes a quality starting pitcher at the big-league level.

And if you aren’t sure who is actually running this team, check out this quote from Bavasi in the P-I story.

“He’s highly, highly unlikely to start in Triple-A,” Bavasi said. “We don’t feel like that’s going to help us.”

Sure it would, Bill, just not in 2008. And since you are on the hot seat for the rest of your Mariners career, thanks to Howard Lincoln and his idiotic practices of making money first and second, and putting together a good, solid baseball organization with the opportunity for long-term success on the field third.

Here’s one scout’s take on the Mariners’ handling of Morrow - before the P-I story came out early this morning.

“He’s a one-pitch guy right now - plus-plus velocity, but poor command and no second pitch. That’s a great prospect if he’s sitting in A-ball starting every fifth day, working on his offspeed pitches.

“They had no business putting him in the majors. I wouldn’t count on him as a starter this year.”

And just for fun, the same scout said this about the proposed trades for Bedard; Cincy apparently offering Homer Bailey, Joey Votto and Josh Hamilton versus Seattle’s Jones, Morrow and Clement.

“I’d take the Seattle deal because of Jones. I like the Cincy deal’s 2-3 (pieces) better, but Adam Jones is going to be special. That deal would make the M’s better in 2008, but by 2010 they’d regret it in a huge way. ”

Two things in that are very interesting. One, his assessment of Jones. Gotta love seeing talent evaluators outside the organization saying things like that about AJ.  I know it makes me feel validated forspeaking so highly of him the past 18 months.

Secondly, the comment about the M’s regretting a deal like that in 2010. This is what I’ve been getting at. Bedard is not the final piece to a potential World Series contending team, and if you are renting him for two years, which is the case since he’s a free agent after 2009, giving up even Jones alone is too much.

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He Said It: John McLaren

I recently received a copy of John McLaren’s interview with the press that took place two weeks ago at the winter meetings in Nashville. McLaren takes a lot of guff from the fans here in Seattle and without a doubt this interview will give plenty of ammo to those who aren’t fans of the Mariners skippers.

The first thing that can be pounced on was a response to a question on second baseman Jose Lopez, who has struggled mightily during the second half of the past two seasons .

Here is how McLaren responded:

“I’m a Jose Lopez Fan. A few things got turned sideways for him last year. We just want him to play with passion every night. He’s got good ability. The rap on him was his defense, and I think he was one of the top defenders at 2nd base fielding percentage-wise, and we were very happy these and we just want to maximize his concentration at the plate and it the field to make him the best player he can be, which is going to make us a better team. That’s the only thing I am going to convey to him.”

So McLaren has cited both passion and fielding percentage in the same paragraph. Awesome. Taken at face value, these comments are just horrible. In his defense, McLaren isn’t the kind of guy who is going to call out any of his players out by name, but the sin here is not only citing fielding percentage, which is about as useless as batting average and RBI, but being too nice to play in a high stakes game. And if we’ve learned anything the past five years, it’s that baseball is indeed that kind of competition.

McLaren on running more next season:

I think Betancourt has got the capabilities of being a 20-plus stolen base guy, and I know Adam Jones does, too. I know with Ichiro and – I’m going to see if we can get more stolen bases. We had a pretty good percent last year, 81 and 30. We need to get up in the 120’s. Anaheim has more speed than us, we need to utilize our speed more.

McLaren goes on to say that Ichiro could steal 80 bases next year. If the fantasy baseball league you participate in is a 5×5 setup that uses stolen bases, it might be a good idea to look into someone like Yuniesky Betancourt for a cheap source of steals. These comments are troubling, however, because unlike many other statements by the skipper, this one is lacks qualification. It would have been appropriate to say that he doesn’t want the team being crazy on the base paths but wants them to take the extra base.

This also is a sign that McLaren is likely to choose his bench to include plenty of guys who can steal a base late in the game. Expect the Mariners stolen base totals to spike in 2008 but the percentage to drop. This is not a net gain.

On Richie Sexson bouncing back:

We need him because losing some offense with Guillen and with Adam in right field, Richie comes back to being Richie, it takes a lot of pressure off Adam, and it helps us out a lot. And Richie has got something you can’t teach. That’s the power and hitting the ball out of the ballpark. It would be a good sign, seeing him do that again.

John McLaren is a positive guy, but this was not a positive statement, at least if you are a fan of the Mariners and want them to win games. If Richie Sexson returns to the 40 HR bat that McLaren says he can, this is a huge opportunity for the team to get better. I don’t believe for a second that McLaren believes in his heart of hearts that Sexson is due for such a huge improvement.

The fluff continues…

On Swinging at Strikes:

You know what? We’re going to stress for the first day for Spring Training just to work the count. You know, I mean, I’m not big into taking pitches and all this, that and the other. I want to get into hitters counts and take advantage of it.

If you look at some of the hitters stats on like a 2-0 count, (a) couple of them are pretty ugly. These should be hitter’s counts and they should be hitting for a higher batting average; .300 plus in a hitters count because it should be the pitch you are looking for.

Even though the walk is not invoked, it’s hard to find fault in a message of “wait for your pitch and hit it.” These statements were the most encouraging in the entire interview.

McLaren went on to say: “We want to work the count more, and it does a lot of things, you know. It makes the other pitcher work harder and maybe get him out of the game earlier and so on and so forth. Lot of times we let pitchers off the hook early in the game and all of a sudden they get their rhythm and pitch a good game against us.

“If you could have gotten to the guy in the 3rd inning and gotten to the bullpen, it sets the stage for the whole series. That’s what you got to do. You’ve got to take advantage of situations, and we’re going to try to approach it that way.”

In all, Mariner fans should forgive McLaren for not being a Hall of Fame manager. This guy isn’t going to win the Mariners a bunch of games by playing hunches correctly for an entire season, and his in-game strategy isn’t going to earn him five-minute segments on Baseball Tonight to break down his “genius.”

But when a field manager is talking about fielding percentage, error totals and he says he isn’t into taking pitches, it makes you wonder if he has a clue.

At least he’s saying some of the right things, however.

You can read the entire John McLaren interview from the Winter Meetings in Nashville by Clicking Here.

Brent Schwartz is a new contributor at Prospect Insider. You can find more of his work at Hardball Review, where he is one of four co-authors. Click Here to e-mail Brent.

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The Churchill Report

No, this is not going to be a conversation about steroids, HGH or an opinion piece on any of that BS going on with the Mitchell Report. I just don’t care to discuss it. Instead, let’s update the Seattle Mariners Hot Stove action.

It’s been days since there was any news on the wheelings and dealings of the Seattle Mariners, with the exception of the likelihood that Japanese right-hander Hiroki Kuroda has told those close to him that he has chosen the Los Angeles Dodgers over the M’s and Arizona Diamondbacks.

There is nothing new to report on much else, but here’s the latest I’m hearing:

Starting Pitchers

The Mariners and Orioles continue to have occasional dialogue regarding left-hander Erik Bedard. But contrary to at least one report, the Mariners have not offered a package of Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and George Sherrill, nor have they offered Jones, Sherrill and Clement.

It’s very possible that the M’s have yet to make a formal offer and still trying to assess what it might take to land Bedard.

One thing seems very clear, however. GM Bill Bavasi is not interested in getting fleeced this winter, and appears hellbent on avoiding such a situation when it comes to Jones, Morrow and Clement.

The Dodgers have the best shot to land Bedard if they so choose, but if Kuroda chooses L.A. officially, it may remove the urgency for Ned Colletti to add another starting pitcher at such a cost.

The Reds could probably get Baltimore to gift wrap Bedard and add some sprinkles, too, if they were willing to include outfielder Jay Bruce in the deal, which is apparently, and intelligently so, something Cincinnati is not willing to do.

Cincy could, however, offer Homer Bailey, potentially a future No. 1, first baseman Joey Votto and center fielder Josh Hamilton, which is as good or better than any deal Seattle could wisely offer Baltimore GM Andy McPhail.

But it wouldn’t be wise for the Reds, in my opinion. Bedard is only under club control through the 2009 season, when he will hit the market as the top pitcher available and certainy looking for a Barry Zito type contract.

Bailey, Hamilton and Votto are all under club control for at least five more years, six for Bailey and Votto, and all three are dirt cheap through the 2010 and 2011 seasons. So unless the Reds plan on opening up the wallet and spending near $100 million on payroll, Bedard should never don a Reds uniform.

I’d venture to guess that Bailey, if healthy, will be outperforming Bedard by 2009 anyway.

I think the New York Mets land him.

Chances of Bedard being traded to Seattle: 10%

The Mariners are a super long shot to land Johan Santana, as the Twins are likely to ask for a Bedard-like package, and then some and Santana is a free agent after the year.

Ben Sheets isn’t happening, as the Brewers are asking for premium position players and young, cheap bullpen help, leading one front office representative to believe GM Doug Melvin would demand that both left-hander George Sherrill and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt be included, if not center field prospect Adam Jones as well.

“They aren’t likely to be realistic right now on him,” he said. “The market is out of control and being a seller, they have the chance to ask for the world for awhile. If they come down to earth on him, he’ll move, and they will still get quite a bit back.”

Chances of Sheets being traded to Seattle: 3%

The Edwin Jackson deal isn’t dead, as the Tampa Bay Rays are still willing to move him, but he’s not going to be as cheap as originally hoped. Seattle may revisit the idea if they miss out on Kuroda and/or Bedard.

The Rays are said to be asking for ready prospects or younger veterans without large contracts at three spots: 2B, C and RP.

Jose Lopez, Rob Johnson, Eric O’Flaherty, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Sean Green make some sense.

Chances of Edwin Jackson being traded to Seattle: 10%

At this point, I’m unaware of any interest the Mariners have shown in right-handers Jason Jennings, Freddy Garcia and Mark Prior, all coming off injuries.

Bavasi has always liked Jennings, so it’s more than conceivable that contact has been made, or at least will at some point.

Mark Prior is interesting, because the upside is still there. Prior’s stuff hasn’t slipped much, as his velocity was as high as 94 mph the last time he pitched in a live game, and his curve ball had the same bite it always had.

His problems are with command and, obviously, staying on the mound. Many of you have asked whether I think it would make sense to use Prior in relief to alleviate some of the workload, possibly enabling him to remain healthy.

The best short answer I can present to you comes from a scout I asked the same question of:

“I don’t know, it’s possible. But he may resist that, and some guys just aren’t suited for relief work. Every one is different physically and physiologically, so some pitchers may not respond as well in that role. And our pitching guys tend to believe bullpen work is tougher on the arm than starting, since the regimen is so whacky. You get up and throw so much, even if you aren’t used that night.”

So, it’s possible, but it may not help, depending on how his arm, stuff and mental side responds.

Chances of Jennings, Garcia or Prior being signed by Seattle: Jennings 5%, Garcia 0%(won’t be ready until June) Prior 2% (he’s likely to wish to stay in warmer weather, like his hometown in SD)

At this stage, I have not heard a single peep about the M’s and right-handers Carlos Silva, Bartolo Colon, Livan Hernandez and Kyle Lohse, which is likely the result of the waiting game with the Kuroda and Bedard situations.

One east coast reporter told me today that he’s heard Seattle connected to Lohse, and another emailed me to ask me if I thought Seattle would guarantee Colon two years, because apparently that’s what it’s going to take to get him, and he is apparently interested in Seattle.

Josh Fogg is another backburner filler type Seattle has been linked to, but I don’t know if it’s true, or what level of interest the Mariners have had or will have going forward.

Bats

The Mariners are still being linked to outfielders such as Geoff Jenkins and Brad Wilkerson and to a lesser extent Kenny Lofton. Since Cliff Floyd signed in Tampa, the Mariners had to move off him and focus elsewhere.

But the club is still focused on pitching and may not get anything done with the lineup until they have a better idea what level of resources will be spent on the rotation.

Bench, Bullpen

Mike Lamb? Jeremy Affeldt? Marcus Giles? All have been linked to Seattle, but I’d prefer they went after Jose Valentin and Reggie Sanders, who are also free agents.

Not a lot to report on these fronts, since starting pitching is on both the frontburners of the Mariners hot stove. Seriously, I can’t get anyone to talk about the Mariners and a bat or reliever because there isn’t much talk between the club and the agents for those players. Some, just not a ton right now.

I assume that after Christmas we’ll start hearing a lot more rumors about the Mariners and what they will do with the offense, including the Richie Sexson situation, Jose Vidro’s role in 2008, and what the club does with the outfield, since I refuse to believe the Mariners are dumb enough to leave Raul Ibanez in left field and starting Jones in right when anyone with half a brain can figure out that it makes so much more sense to put Jones, the rangier defender, in left to cover all that space at Safeco Field.

I still expect the Mariners to make at least two somewhat major trades this winter, and will probably make one or two bad-but-not-terrible free agent signings.

It’s just tough to tell which direction they will head until Kuroda makes it official in Los Angeles and Bedard is traded to the Mets.

If I had to venture a guess on who the Mariners end up with this winter, I’m only comfortable saying this.

It won’t include anyone named in the Mitchell Report.

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