As members of the world wide baseball community, we’ve often discussed and read about the ever-growing changes in the level of play between the American League and the National League. One league has the designated hitter, the other does not, so naturally the two leagues will differ to some extent in even the park and defense adjusted numbers for pitchers.
So when John Dewan of ACTA Sports and Baseball Info Solutions, who give us the Bill James Handbook every year, sent out his Stat of the Week last month, I balked.
The title of the stat is “Is there an Adjustment Period for Players When They Change Leagues?”
The data to back up the claim that “no, players do not typically go through an adjustment period when changing leagues,” Dewan uses win shares to compare the last two years of the 23 players that switched leagues last season.
Dewan found that 13 of the 23 players had 2007 win shares total within two win shares of their 2006 season, and that five players showed a decline and five players showed an improvement.
Sounds remarkable until you look deeper.
The five players that improved by three or more win shares are: Jose Vidro, Ted Lilly, Alan Embree, Aubrey Huff and Kenny Lofton.
The five that declined by three or more are: Mark Loretta, Danys Baez, Roger Clemens, J.D. Drew, Barry Zito.
Of the five that improved, two went from the AL to the NL and three came from the NL to the AL, which, on the surface, seems like a little piece of evidence that maybe the two leagues aren’t all that different.
But looking at it further, that fact cannot be made more clear, thanks to Dewan’s study.
Vidro went from 12 win shares to 16 win shares, not a tremendous difference, suggesting that maybe Dewan should have upped the “change” value. But my point is this on Vidro - he was healthy in 2007, and was not in 2006. That makes an enormous difference regardless of the league.
Lilly improved four win shares as well, going from the AL to the NL. Again, not a huge difference, but he was healthy both years and still showed a four WS increase.
Huff wasn’t perfectly healthy in either season and still showed an improvement of three win shares in the NL versus his AL total in ‘06.
Kenny Lofton is the only of the five that was healthy both seasons and improved by more than two win shares in the AL over his previous totals in the senior circuit. But again, three win shares is fairly marginal - it equals one overall win.
Pretty solid evidence so far that the AL is indeed the better league, but, wait, there’s more.
Of the five that declined, only Loretta and Zito showed a decline of three shares or more after moving from the AL to the NL, and Loretta, who lost five win shares between the two seasons, spent time on the DL, played injured for other portions of the season and is in a decline age at 36 years old.
He was very likely to show the same decline no matter the league in which he played, and one could argue that he’d have taken a much more severe step back in production had he remained in the AL where the pitching is far superior.
Zito was just downright mediocre/awful, and I won’t even begin to speak of his decline from 17 WS to eight after stepping into the worse of the two leagues.
But Baez went from six win shares to one, and wasn’t very healthy in either season. Drew appeared healthy in both seasons and dropped from 19 to 12, and Clemens sank from 11 to five, a rather enormous drop for a pitcher.
Clemens’ drop can be attributed somewhat to natural decline as well, same as Loretta, but if we take a look at those 13 that remained about the same, five of them came to the AL in ‘07 but ALL OF THEM had significant prior experience in the better league, and only Miguel Batista and Andy Pettitte, who has admitted publicly that his shoulder was “much more sound from beginning to end” in 2007, were older than 35 when the season ended and did not spend time on the DL - suggesting strongly that they played injured for at least part of the 2006 season.
You can also make a rather large case that Pettitte benefited greatly from the move out of the Juice Box in Houston and into the pitcher-friendly confines in the Bronx.
Dewan is correct in claiming that, based on the 2006-2007 crop of 23 players and their win shares totals, their isn’t necessarily an adjustment period when changing leagues, but my contention goes beyond the simple change of leagues and believe the better, and much more valuable and appropriate question, is clearly whether one league is superior to the other, and by how much. Several of these 23 players make that case soundly in favor the of American League.
It’s the reason why so many scouts are giving two separate projections for free-agent pitchers right now. One scout recently told me that even though Carlos Silva and Hiroki Kuroda are low-4th or No. 5 starters in the AL, they might be able to slide in and put up low-3, high-4 performances in the National League.
The same scout strongly opined that if Alex Rodriguez signed with the Chicago Cubs or Los Angeles Dodgers and remained there for the duration of his career, he’d likely hit anywhere from 50-75 more home runs than he would have had he remained in the AL where he has spent the first 11 years of his career.
Yeah, 50-75 more in seven seasons. That’s as many as eight more per season, which is probably the Wrigley side of things while the 50 better represents Dodgers Stadium’s increase. But that’s an amazing, although conceivable difference.
Now, you can argue those numbers in either direction, sure, but there’s a clear difference in the two leagues, and it’s pretty significant and seems to be getting worse every year.
Buyer beware of the NL’s fourth starters and six and seven-hole hitters. They might just be middle relievers and bench bats in the best baseball league in the world - the American League.
Memo to the Mariners and GM Bill Bavasi: Stop signing and trading for league average arms from a league whose talent level is far below the standard of the league in which your team is playing.
You wouldn’t place last year’s West Tennesse Diamond Jaxx roster into the NL East and expect them to win, would you?
Didn’t think so.
Or would you?
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Interesting thoughts.
Should we be translating rookie performances differently (between leagues) as well?
Yes.
It doesn’t mean Ryan Braun and T2 didn’t have great years or that the best players in the NL wouldn’t be great in the AL, it just means you have to look deeper.
You have to look at a player’s true physical abilities, for one, check their weaknesses against the AL and see what you find out.
There are all kinds of park and league effects that need to be considered, but we all know that if Chase Utley or David Wright were in the AL, they’d be superstars still.
Jason,
I tried emailing you, but it’s not letting me…I donated 10 bucks for the software. I know it’s not much, but hopefully it helps. Is there any chance that before the winter meetings you could maybe give us a rundown of what you are hearing surrounding the M’s and mabye give us a couple of moves that you assume the M’s are likely to make.
I sure can. How about Sunday night?
And why aren’t you able to email me?
That would be awesome! Thanks Jason!
I’m not sure…when I clicked on the link in the email and once I sent it, it came back every time as a mailer demon unknown. I even tried just typing the address into the email and it did the same thing. It was weird, because I know I’ve emailed you before.
Sort of unrelated but in the aftermath of the Mariners supposed 4 year offer to Kuroda, he has officially said that he is coming to the states to play MLB according to MLB Trade Rumors.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see some official “Mariners signed Kuroda for 4 years 44 million” coming real soon.
Ugh.
Jason if the M’s do sign Kuroda, does that mean they will not be willing to spend 15-20 mil per year on a pitcher next year? Because that is my fear, that they sign Kuroda for 11 mil, and next year only have about 10 mil to spend on a pitcher. Ugh, please tell me Im worng.
Personally, I think Washburn or Batista would be fairly tradable with only a year left on their contracts after this season.
Of course, Washburn is the one they might want to deal.
No, baseball man, they’ll have money to spend next year, too.
But is there a pitcher that is going to be on the market worth that kind of dough?
Forget about Santana, because it’s never ever going to happen.
Snow is falling does this mean a signing is about to happen?
Yep. Sure does.
Wait, a signing is about to happen? Who is going to be signed? How come everyone knows but me?
No.
So are the M’s going to offer Guillen arbitration? I can’t see why they wouldn’t; there is almost no chance that he will accept it and it doesn’t seem like the steroid allegations have done anything to damage his stock too much.
They SHOULD, and the last I heard they were thinking YES.
Apparently we didn’t, at least according to ESPN. Pretty stupid decision but it isn’t shocking with this front office.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=3137490
ESPN didnt say anything one way or the other. But if they don’t offer, it’s because the suits decided he wasn’t a worthy “character.”
They listed all the guys that were offered, I was also looking at this updated list that displays all the teams’ free agents and it shows that he wasn’t offered arbitration.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=3137510
Obviously this isn’t the end of the world, but he wasn’t going to accept it because he’ll be signed by someone and that sandwich round pick would have added a valuable piece to the farm system.
I have confirmed that he wasn’t offered arbitration and the reason given…
“We have other plans for our outfield now. we’ve moved on from Guillen and could not risk him accepting.”
Morons. His acceptance of arbitration would be anything but a risk.
So that means the M’s won’t get a draft pick right?
It’s a risk, he could be terrible in ‘08 for 9-10 million bucks.
But the chances that he’d accept it? I dunno.
Right, dubs, no pick.
Kuroda will be an M
So says a friend of mine that works for one of the baseball teams in Japan, the same one who introduced me to Ichiro at a game in Japan BEFORE he announced to be coming to US/Seattle. I attend a lot of games in Japan and watch many of them also on TV in Japan. I think Kuroda will be a much more solid #3 or #4 than posters here would like to admit- sure as hell will be money better spent than on Weaver and the BP Pitcher from Atlanta!
we’ll see in a few days if my contact knows of what he speaks
Well I saw on the dodgers board on espn where someone they know outta japan said that Kuroda said on the news that he was deciding between just Seattle and LAD, that he had narrowed his decision to those two teams. So now it seems like a 50/50 deal. Hopefully this doesn’t stop us from trading for a TOR pitcher.
I noticed Adam Jones didn’t make MiLB’s top 50 prospects. I’m guessing he doesn’t have that “prospect” tag anymore for him to qualify for it?
No, he doesn’t qualify anymore. Depending on who is doing the lists, there is a limit on ABs and innings.
Jones has more than 130 PAs, which is the rookie threshold.
But ignore those rankings, they are wretched.
Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen and Colby Rasmus are all too high. Seems they were given far too much value simply for being a center fielder.
Clement is 15-20 spots too low at least and Triunfel, well, Mayo completely missed the boat on him.
Ask any scout, coach, manager or player that has seen him play and had a chance to do any eval on him and he’s top 10 MINIMUM.
I know of three scout types that think he’s top 5.
Re: Kuroda
It’s really just a matter of player and agent trying to squeeze as much out of the M’s as they can.
That’s pretty much what the hold up is, apparently.
How on earth is Kuroda at 4/44 or higher, a better idea than Colon at whatever one year deal he would sign?
Jason,
When do you think Triunfel will actually be ready to contribute at the big league level? 2009? 2010? Also, looking forward to what you’re hearing about who the M’s are in on before the winter meetings. Is that still going to come out tonight?
2010.
And yeah, super late tonight. You’ll see it up tomorrow morning.
He’s not Pat, if Colon gets less than two years guaranteed.
Remember, Colon is a HUGE health risk, pun intended. You can’t guarantee him 15-20 million bucks and think it’s a good idea.
#26
Thats too bad. Jones and “Rookie of the Year” had a nice ring to it.
It just shows that the Mariners have exactly no confidence in giving rookie position players a chance. When was the last time the M’s plunged on with a rookie that actually had a shot at rookie of the year? Cruz maybe?
Not counting Ichiro of course since he was far from a “rookie” when he signed on.
Who cares about Rookie of the Year?
I don’t even think the players give a crap. I know Jones doesn’t.
I was talking from a fans standpoint. I’m sure Mariner fans would love to see a home grown talent even be on that level.