Winter’s Important Dates

Every Fall and Winter the Hot Stove gets going and many of us begin the scramble to find out when the deadlines are for all of the arbitration, free agent and roster swapping that takes place.

When do the Mariners have to decide on whether they are non-tendering Horacio Ramirez or making another mistake with him? When does the club have to make their tender for George Sherrill? Can the M’s wait until Spring Training starts to sign their own free agents?

So, instead of waiting for 25 people to ask, here’s MLB’s version of the important dates to remember this winter.


Close of World Series — October 15th or the day following the end of the World Series (whichever is later) marks the commencement of the 15-day period during which eligible players may elect free agency.

4th Day After World Series — Last date to request waivers on draft-excluded players until 25 days prior to the opening of the following season.

16th Day After World Series — First day Major League free agents may negotiate and sign with a Club other than their former Club.

Nov. 10 — Waivers secured on/after Aug. 1, 2007, expire at 5:00 p.m. ET.

Nov. 11 — New waiver period begins. Waivers (exclusive of Outright waivers) secured today and after shall be in effect until February 15, 2008.

Nov. 20 — Day to file reserve lists for all Minor League levels and Major Leagues

Nov. 20 — Last date to make an off-season outright assignment of an injured player to the Minor Leagues if the player does not meet the requirements listed in Article XIX(C)(b) of the Basic Agreement.

Dec. 1 — Last date for former Clubs to offer salary arbitration to ranked XX(B) free agents in order to be eligible for compensation.

Dec. 6 — Major League Rule 5 Draft

Dec. 7 — Last date for player, who declared free agency under Art. XX (B), to accept an arbitration offer from former club.

Dec. 12 — Last date to tender contracts.


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The 2008 Bill James Handbook

If you’ve never read the Bill James Handbook before, now is as good a time as any to start. Just four weeks after the regular seasons has ended, Baseball Info Solutions and Bill James bring us the most in-depth annual baseball data reference available.

Ever wanted to know which hitters are the best with two strikes? Which pitchers threw the most 100-mph fastballs? This handbook has all of that.

Among the more interesting features in this book are the projections put out for each player in the league. These projections, based on a formula developed by James, are among the most accurate projections you’ll find.

This is a book that many scouts I know like to have at their disposal and it’s one of very few annuals I buy every year.

Secure the best price for this year’s edition by pre-ordering your copy today.

Get it for $14.93 if you pre-order now, or pay the full price at $21.95 after the release date of November 1.

It makes a pretty good Christmas present, heck, it’s what I bought for myself two years in a row and when I saw the deal Amazon had put together, I had to get one.

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Fixing Felix Hernandez

We all expected Seattle Mariners phenom Felix Hernandez to be the King in 2007, and become the ace that he’s capable of becoming.

That didn’t happen, and there’s more than one reason why.

Flaws in his delivery, inconsistent release points and lack of experience at facing adversity have haunted the 21-year-old over the past two seasons.

But there are answers to most, if not all of the questions, and many of them are outlined below.

If you are not a familar with what Hernandez is all about or are reading this as a fan of another team and have not been exposed to the right-hander’s abilities, Click Here for a Scouting Report on Felix.

Mechanics: Felix’s mechanics are somewhat violent with lots of effort, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s destined for injury. His delivery and mechanics aren’t likely the reason for his poor command. Repeating his delivery is the issue, and changes to the mechanics of his entire pitching motion can help, most notably simplified actions between start and release.

Hernandez’s fastball is often flat, partly because he isn’t staying on top of it, which is at least partially due to his delivery pulling his body (and partly due to his head still flying out and pointed at the hitter too far into his delivery, like seen in the photo at left), then his arm toward the first base side, forcing him to compensate his release point. That makes it awfully tough to be consistent.

If you take a look at Felix’s first two starts of the year, where he looked like a freaking world beater against the Oakland Athletics and Boston Red Sox, two clubs with offensive styles that have typically given the kid fits over his first year and a half in the bigs - patient, gap hitters with some power in the middle of the order - he was clearly staying on top of his pitches, not just the fastball, but the slider, curve and change as well.

After his DL stint, he was all over the place with his release point, and I also noticed in a handful of starts, including his June start at home versus the Baltimore Orioles, that he was actually staying too tall and therefore leaving many of his offerings up in the zone, including his slider, which looked very ordinary that day


Change Up the Lefties: Lefties are slugging .493 with a .299 average against him in his career, and that’s obviously a rather large problem. He’s thrown only 11% changeups to lefties, even though they have hit just .233 on the change and hitters overall bat just .252 against it.

He must find more consistency and confidence in his changeup, because if he wants to be the King, he’ll need to keep the left-handed bats off balance.

The Flat Fastball: Hitters are batting .282 on the fastball with a .466 slugging. Adjustments should be made to help him stay on top of it, including convincing the kid that throwing 98 is not necessarily, well, necessary.

We’ve seen Hernandez dominate games for the Mariners with a good fastball with downward plane and biting movement to his glove side, which is a perfect compliment to one of the best sliders in baseball.

Most pitching gurus, including the King Guru himself Mike Marshall, a former big-league pitcher, believe that a pitcher’s stride length should be at least equal to his height. Many pitchers come up short in that category, even some of the better starters in baseball. But for many pitchers who wish to maximize velocity and protect the arm, it can be critical to long-term success.

Felix may not be a candidate for such an adjustment – his stride is approximately 80-85% of his height of 6-3 – because of the problem he’s having with his flat heater and inconsistent location up in the strike zone with his fastball and curve.

But you can certainly bet that pitching minds like Jim Colborn and Norm Charlton are going to explore such an idea, if they are both indeed brought aboard the M’s coaching staff this winter.

A Better Gameplan: It often appears as if there isn’t a gameplan, and though he’s a young, somewhat inexperienced pitcher, there’s no excuse for toeing the rubber without a pretty detailed scheme against every hitter in the lineup. The blame here belongs at the feet of both pitching coach Rafael Chaves and Hernandez himself.

As much I like Chaves, it was probably a good idea to replace him at this point. Not because he’s incapable, but because the problems with the club’s franchise pitcher might be more effectively repaired by a veteran pitching coach with different, more proven philosophies and ideas.

It’s time for Hernandez to hit the classroom, so to speak, and diligently keep a book on hitters and spend more time with his coaches and catchers working on how to attack specific hitters and ball clubs.

The New Coaches: Hopefully, Colborn and Charlton, if hired, rub off on Hernandez quite a bit. They each have their strengths, both being hard-nosed and aggressive, but Charlton’s macho take on things might not be good for Hernandez at times. Colborn is best known for perparation and great programs in between starts and during the offseason, so there certainly will be an improvement in that area.

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The Book on Felix Hernandez

Felix Hernandez is the owner of what very possibly could be the best pure arsenal of any pitcher in all of baseball.

Two years ago I called him a closer who could go nine innings. Nasty stuff, very sustainable and with velocity that holds through 120+ pitches.

He hasn’t had the success most expected for him, but he still strikes fear in the eyes of many hitters, based on what he’s capable of in any given game.

For general reference purposes, here’s what Felix has to offer the hitter’s in the American League.

Fastball

Hernandez throws both a four-seam and a two-seam fastball, both sitting in the 93-98mph range. The four-seamer tends to float a little bit and this gets Felix into trouble, as he’s unable to get ahead in the count with such a hittable first and second pitch.

His two-seamer is nasty, but has been on-and-off over the past year, due to an inconsistent release point. With good armside run and downward action, this is how Hernandez induces so many ground balls, as hitters will pound it into the ground on a regular basis.

He will get just as many swings-and-misses with his two-seam offering as he does with the four-seamer, but without proper location, combined with the release point and a few mechanical problems, it often gets hit hard.

When things are right for Hernandez, he can dominate with just his fastball combination. Both are plus offerings and his two-seamer rivals the best in baseball.

Curve Ball

If you were watching Felix in for the first two years of his career - through the first half of 2007 - you may have noticed something different about his curve ball after the All-Star break this past season. He adjusted the grip on his curve ball to remove some velocity, reducing it’s speed into the 81-83 range more often, rather than the 84-87 mph curves he had been throwing.

Taking something off the curve is almost like adding a different pitch - which would give him five… nuts, I know - because he can still throw his original curve ball with a classic grip if he and his catcher think it’ll be more effective in a given count to a certain batter.

With great depth and a consistent, sharp hammer-style break, Hernandez freezes even the best of hitters with a well-located Uncle Charlie. Most of his curve balls are taken and catch hitters looking, but he’s also capable of starting the pitch knee high and dropping it in the dirt to induce a wild swing.

His curves - plural - are both plus pitches, and the late season success of his newer grip makes for a nasty combination in which to work with in 2008 and beyond. he is not afraid to throw his curve in any count, including 2-0 and 3-1.

Slider

Easily Felix’s favorite pitch, but the slider is also his best out pitch and is as good as any slider most have ever seen. With improved and consistent location, it very well could be the best slider in the game. It’s late, sharp break causes it to dives down and in to a left-hander and away from the righties.

At 87-90 mph, Felix’s slider has as much velocity as the average pitcher’s fastball, and hitters have no chance to do anything with it if it’s thrown down in the zone.

When talking to scouts about Felix’s slider, the word “spike” and “dominant” come up quite a bit.

And rightfully so. A true plus-plus pitch that compliments the rest of his arsenal well.

Changeup

Three years ago I wrote that Felix’s changeup was perhaps his best out pitch. Well, it might be second to his slider if he used it more, and he did throw it more during the second half of the year.

Felix employs a basic circle change and has a decent feel for it, but appears to either lose confidence in the pitch’s effectiveness or throws a few poor ones and is afraid to use it in most counts.

With left-handers giving him so much trouble thus far in his career, it’s imperative that he find a way to use his change more often, as he did in his last five starts of the season.

Hernandez threw a few dozen changeups in his last two starts, with 13 of them looking as good as it ever has and the other 11grading out anywhere from poor to average. But none of them were left up in the zone to be raked into the gap, which is a good sign; when he misses, it’s down and out of reach.

“I think better use of his changeup would easily cut a quarter run off his ERA, maybe more,” said an American League scout. “He could probably go slider-change all day against lefty bats and be fine.”

While a below average pitch today, that’s based mostly on the fact that it’s been underused.


Holding Runners/Working with Runners on Base

Hernandez is about average at holding runners, though at times he’ll lose focus and forget about a runner at first. This is usually due to struggling command that has him frustrated, not because he’s incapable of throwing over and making a base runner think twice.

His pick-off move rates about average, but has the potential to be slightly above average. His work with runners on is more troublesome, however, when it comes to the batter he’s trying to get out, particularly when multiple runners are occupying the bases.

Overall

With two and a half years of work under his belt, it may be Felix’s time to start shining after two somewhat disappointing season, though neither year was a disaster by any stretch. He shows flashes of dominance, but he’ll often leave pitches up in the zone and once he gets battered about for an inning or two, his confidence is shot and his emotions can get the best of him.

The natural maturation process is going to be Hernandez’s best friend, as he learns to deal with adverse situations within games and innings. Once he corralles his emotional response to every hit he yields, the league is in big trouble.

One thing is very clear when it comes to what lies ahead for Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners…

…A focused Felix is a great pitcher that challenges for the circuit’s Cy Young Award every single season. And probably wins a few, too.

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