Do you think they take it a little slower with morrow if RRS’ durability looks good? If RRS looks like he can be the starter, will morrow just go down to Tacoma to continue workin? Or do you think we see both of them as starters next year in the beginning?

It really depends, because it sure sounds like they want to rush Morrow and justify that draft pick.

Too bad, too.

But who knows, Morrow is getting an appearance here within the next few days and he may struggle in Spring Training.

If it’s at all even, or even close, Morrow will get the nod.

And that’s only if they don’t sign or trade for a combination of two starters this winter.

Baek is out of options and needs to fill the #5 spot or they’ll lose him. They should sign Kuroda for the other spot because they won’t have to give anything up to get him. If they really want a more experienced RP, they should sign Uehara for the same reasons. Morrow and RRS could spend the whole year in Tacoma and be available for spot starts and relief work if necessary. If both Morrow and RRS are ready for the 09′ season, they should trade Washburn in his last year. I like this scenario because it gets them through 2-3 years and they don’t have to give up or lose anything for once. The remaining roster still isn’t constructed right as you note and must be fixed as well. What scares the hell out of me is that Bavasi will have to make a couple trades to get rid of at least two players. I really like what Bavasi has done with the farm system so far but his trades are terrible.

BTW, if anyone else is dying to talk about other Seattle Sports like the Dawgs, Hawks or Supersonics, 206Sports is a place for all of the above.

Jason #6
What you say is true but Baek is no worse than Weaver or Ramirez and is a lot cheaper. Plus, we don’t give Bavasi the chance to make more putrid trades and RRS and Morrow aren’t that far away either. The big problem is the budget and Sexson’s contract this year. They’re already committed for about $108M this year and that doesn’t include Guillen. How do they even sign Kuroda without getting rid of Sexson and maybe Broussard or Vidro? My only reason for putting Baek ahead of RRS and Morrow was because we still have all three of them for sometime this year and we already have a huge budget problem. The budget problem should go away in 09′ and we’ll have another draft under our belts and more trading chips from the farm system. By the way, are you going to give us a list of the top 50-60 prospects like you did last year? I’d think that this year would be even more interesting than last year.

Baek is still unreliable. Let him go. Don’t keep just to avoid losing him.

Jason #12
You are joking with me about the FO aren’t you? I have a real hard time believing they’ll spend another $30-40M over the $108M already committed for two more SP’s and an OF’er which would give them absolutely no flexibility for the next 3 years either. Even Guillen costs them $10M a year for 2-3 years if they resign him. Sexson goes away in 09′ and Washburn and Beltre in 10′. They had an extra $9M last year because of the sale of the Expos and flushed it down the toilet on Weaver. I really have my doubts we can count on both Morrow and RRS to be ready to fill two slots at the beginning of this coming season. I can see them signing Kuroda and using Baek and then RRS and Morrow when they are ready and a $115M budget this year. Signing Kuroda and getting rid of Sexson are the keys to getting this done.

I wanna know why Larry Larue still has a job?

First he opines that Horacio Ramirez is worth keeping, which should be a fireable offense in my opinion, and then later - in the same piece of crap column - he calls Guillen a left-handed hitter.

And it wasn’t just some slip, he had to have thought it out.

“Guillen did everything Seattle could have asked, and it’s tough seeing a left-handed bat leave the Mariners’ lineup.?

Whatever Larue, retire already will ya? It’s this kind of crap fed into the minds of too many Mariners fans in these parts that poisons them into believing the bullshit that Lincoln and Armstrong feed them year-in and year-out.

Jason #14
“Their entire payroll was 110ish this year” is quite accurate. I had $109M before figuring in guys like Davis, Parrish, White, etc.

The $11M saved this year by not having Weaver and Ramirez is offset by raises to Hernandez, Sherrill, Putz, Ichiro, Lopez, Broussard, and Washburn for about the same amount.

Jason #18
Broussard is $4.5M but Hernandez and Sherrill will not be non-tendered. I’m showing $97.3M in payroll last year compared to $96.5 this year and an increase of about $1M this year so the difference between this year and last year aren’t even worth mentioning. Yes they could non tender Broussard and have another $4.5M to work and totally lose their investment in him. Another stupid move that I wouldn’t put past the FO. And they can swallow most of Sexson’s contract but it is still a budgeted cost so we still take the hit this year. I already have most of the guaranteed contract figures and that is why I marked the three others as arby elgible as they aren’t solid yet. Neither is Burke. This is my working budget and is as close as you can come to a realistic budget figure at this point in time. There aren’t any more places to save any money from this years $108M budget except for trading Sexson and Broussard.

I already assume that they have to increase the budget some this year as they have to have another pitcher. Kuroda at $10M a year for 3 years could work and not cripple them in the future. Broussard needs to be traded in this scenario to get to a $115M budgeted figure. I have this bad feeling we’re stuck with Sexson this year but he’ll probably play better than last year. My whole problem is with Armstrong and Lincoln just blowing smoke up our asses again this year and doing nothing for the next year. I’m also scared to death of letting Bavasi make any trades as his track record in the past hasn’t been good. I still think that getting through this year is going to be very difficult because of the money needed to fix the M’s properly. The best part of this coming year may be that we will get at least one more Fontaine draft. This may all have been part of their plan anyway.

That should read an increase of about $1M in buy outs in the second sentence.

The buyouts “generally” go against the previous seasons payroll, because fiscally the club can fit it in.

I want you to go down the list of guaranteed contracts - not in paragrapah form, in LIST form.

List the player, his 2008 salary.
Next player, his 2008 salary.

And GUARANTEED monies only.

don’t do your own estimating on the club controlled guys and arby guys yet.

We’ll do that after.

So a few hours ago you were at $108 million, as stated in comment No. 13, and you are now down to $94.4 million and that is counting the contingency fund.

Now, for the team controlled guys.

Rowland-Smith, O’Flaherty, Green and Jones will all be in the 400k range MAX, totalling less than $1.5 mil.

Hernandez may get a multiyear deal, but there’s no way he maxes out in 2008 at more than, say 1 mil for 2008… we’ll go with a mil to be safe, but in a multi-year deal, no way does he make nearly 2 million in year one in a year that they need the payroll space.

That’s 2.3 total for the team controlled’s… 96.9 total.

Sherrill is likely to qualify as a super two and be arby eligible. He’s either going to be included in a trade or he’ll get a two-year pact.

I’d guess on the high side that year one is worth 1.5, which brings us up to 98.4 total.

The rest of the bullpen that we haven’t discussed- 1 guy - is going to be made up of either one vet for a 1-1.5 mil or so, or a 400k rook.

To be conservatively high, we’ll call it a mil.

99.4, and adding Burke for 800k, makes it a cool 100.2 mil.

The payroll limits for 2007 were set at $114 million, give or take, including the cont. fund.

So as they sit today, without trading a soul and assuming Guillen declines his side of the mutual option, they are 14 million UNDER last year’s self-imposed salary cap.

That is without shedding any salary at all in trade and it does not consider any payroll flexibility the owners and Howie decide to add to last year’s limits.

Could 1 mil, could be five, could be eight.

But even at 114, there is eight million dollars more available than you assumed in your previous comment.

If i had to take a guess, I would imagine that Bavasi is given whatever financial resources necessary, within immediate and specific reason, to land Kuroda and either keep Guillen or replace him with Fukudome.

Kuroda is likely to get anywhere from 8-11 mil annually, and the RF is certain to make 7-10 in 08, whether it’s Guillen or not - since they wont go with Wlad… and that puts them way over the 114 anyways.

If they werent going to be able to do some of the things they say they know they need to do, they’d already be making excuses and explaining why they love the team they have and want to go young and all that.

They are raising payroll.

Trust me.

I fully expect a 10-player turnover from 07’s OD roster.

Oh, and typically, the signing bonuses aren’t all columned the same way. So it’s very possible that their taxable and actuals on the SBs sit in other years than what the surface of the contract states. But we’ll leave them in 08 for now.

Ya know, I talked to several people that “thought he was claimed and pulled back”, including a couple of special assistants.

But nobody was 100% sure.

So I don’t know, but I’m not sure whether Larue has the kind of contacts outside the org to verify that sort of thing.

The league is not allowed to give out that info and the Mariners aren’t going to go telling anyone that he was claimed and they pulled him back.

The basic fact here, Al, is that there is room, even if the club stays at 114, which they won’t.

Trading Sexson is one way. Even if they ate 10 mil, they’d still be shaving four million off.

I don’t see any way Ben comes back.

Here’s a question for ya as a Mariners fan Al…

If the Mariners went above and beyond and landed Kuroda and Fukudome and were unable to do anything else this offseason, including no Guillen, is that a successful winter?

Alright!

Fukudome is a patient hitter.

Johjima is a fine hitting catcher, but the M’s have to find a way to curb his workload from July on so he can stay fresh. His bat is barren after the break, at least in the power department.

Fukudome draws a lot more walks.

I really liked what Guillen did this year but Fukudome makes a lot more sense going forward with his LH bat. Kuroda on a 3 year contract makes a lot of sense also as Washburn needs to be replaced for 10′ from the farm system and not a FA. It is necessary for Kuroda to help bridge the gap until SP’s from the farm system finally take over. If they land Fukudome and Kuroda, the M’s will also be able to make a few targeted trades during the year or in the next off season without being forced to make trades. Fukudome corrects the OF configuration finally along with Jones and Ichiro. Now they could concentrate on the 1B/DH situation and make a decision on what to do with Ibanez and Vidro.

Re: Randy Johnson -
Jason, Randy’s still under contract w/ Arizona for ‘08 (at $10M, according to Cot’s). So, we can’t sign him to a one-year, incentive-laden contract, we’d have to trade for him. I think it would take more than it’s probably worth at this point…

Jason, How does Fukudome compare to other Japanese hitters that have come over, from what I can tell is he is imbetween Matsui, and Iwamura power wise, is that sorta accurate? Which right now there looks like there is a huge gap between the two, but I am just assuming that Iwamura needed time to adjust like a lot of other Japanese players.

Isn’t the mutual option on Guillen structured such that he has to give the team $500,000 if he opts out on his end?

You’ve mentioned signing both Kuroda and Fukudome. Well, i think that is what you were implying. Is that something the Mariners are interested in, signing them both?

Jason,
In addition to the obvious hole in the outfield and the couple of open spots in the rotation; Do you feel the M’s will actively pursue anything else above the, “We’re always listening…” lowest common denominator this offseason?

After all, we’ve all heard about the M’s general apathy towards Jose Lopez recently, and with Clement doing well Johjima might be expendable as well. (?)

Certainly the glaring weaknesses will probably take precedence, but I wonder how far you think the M’s will overhaul their line-up if given the oppurtunity.

“I think they are very open to adding another setup type in the pen, replacing Sexson at first and potentially adding a veteran at second.”

You see, that kind of talk immediately gives me images of a Ray Durham/Sexson + cash swap. And another trade of Wlad and Clement for Brad Lidge.

There went my appetite.

Huh? Cots has Durham signed through 2008?

Speaking of dumb shit, is there anyone on this years roster that the front office wants to dump due to personality issues we should know about?

Also, does Byung-Hyun Kim qualify for a set up type in the pen anymore?

Nope, cot’s is right, ek.

And not that I know about.

No.

I would be more then happy for an off-season that features:

• Jones in RF.

• A trade for a decent starter (Balentien/Mickello for Scott Olsen?)

And/Or

• A decent FA starter (Kuroda… ?)

• Fukudomania.

• Unloading the bloated rotting carcass of Richie Sexson’s final year.
(Maybe a decent reliever-type?)

Jason,
Are you planning on doing an evaluation of the M’s 40 man roster - like strengths & weaknesses or “which Prospects need to be on the 40 man roster” or “which players need to be off it” or “If I was the M’s GM, my plan would be…”

JoshSEVox06,

That’s only partly great news. It’s great news that Jones is playing everyday. Bad news if they still think Ibanez can man an outfield spot.

Seems about 50%, Al.

Unless we’re talking about 125-130 million, it doesn’t matter, Al. They’d go to 120, it sounds like to me, if they believed in the roster.

So whether it’s 104 or 108 or 117, it really matters none.

Yeah, the team is just better not taking the Richie Risk.

We could’ve used him in the Kingdome though…Just kidding. We needed pitching then too. Always seemed to have a better First baseman than him back then as well.

I’m very confused by the FO when it comes to unproven players. Is it more up to the managers desire to play them on whether they’re acquired? Fukodome is the reason I’m asking. Obviously with Ichiro and Kenji they showed they’re willing to take that chance on Japanese players, but with Ichiro you’re talking about an unparalleled talent and with Kenji the same was somewhat true for his position in that year. Fukodome is not as clearly better than other options in the OF this year. There are Jenkins, Patterson, Hunter, Bonds (w/e) maybe Abreu (if team doesn’t take option) and quite a few others who might grade about the same or higher. Obviously the first comparison is Guillen, really, because I think he’s an M if they choose for him to be. Alexei Ramirez from Cuba is another shot at the unproven who could squeeze into that debate.

Why is it that you think Fukodome is the most likely pickup for the OF? (I think that’s what you’re saying…)

The only problem with getting rid of Richie is that we aren’t really getting rid of him.

Certainly we can get rid of the underperforming, aging and expensive first basemen currently on our roster, but to replace him with whom?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know Ibanez or Vidro can play first, but both are free-agents next year and both are about as likely to see a Sexsonish collapse as they are to put up league average numbers in the position. Then what?

Another free agent coming off a career year, another inflated salary, another B-grade and/or aging “all star” player–If recent history is any indication anyway. And then the M’s are right back in the boat with “wannabe teams” like the Cubs and Giants.

Teams with loads of money to spend, and they are all quite sensitive about their fan bases seeing them spend it, but they couldn’t spend it prudently to save their lives.
It’s kind of like giving your 10 year old son $60,000 and telling him to purchase the new family vehicle. You’re going to end up with tricked out neon purple Civic with a huge spoiler and only minor engine issues.

Or maybe we could just trade for an ace like Barry Zito.

Jason,

My post wasn’t just to address this off-season, but also the Mariners longer term goals. Certainly unloading Sexson’s contract would be very beneficial to this team in the short term…

My general point is that while the Mariners could (and should) replace guys like Vidro and Sexson, but even IF they do do that (and I’m still not convinced that they’re aware or even care about a lot of 2007’s short-comings…) we will simply end up with more of the same.

After all we still have a front-office with an almost inexplicable fascination with “Veteran leadership” to the point of almost trumping talent. It certainly bought Sexson, Weaver, Ramirez, Carl Everett, Rich Aurilia, Scott Spezio, Jeff Cirillo, etc. etc. a lot more playing time then they ever deserved; And at the cost of the teams young talent and playoff chances.

Basically, the M’s are going to be perpetual “also-rans” until they learn to spend their money wisely, and I don’t think any amount of Sexson type contracts are going to fix that.

By “They have a prospect in the minors that has no spot to play” Did you mean Clement, Balentien or Triunfel?

Seems to me that any of those three could find playing time by next year if the Mariners so choose.
Kenji is a free agent in ‘09–Albeit someone whom I think the M’s should hang onto for a few more years.
Beltre’s potential departure would open a spot for Triunfel should he prove worthy, and Balentien could be stuck in the outfield THIS year if the organization weren’t so opposed to having so many youngsters in the outfield.

It seems to me the Mariners will have more holes to fill then prospects to fill them with in the next couple of years, and unfortunately (given this front offices track record) that means this team is going to probably look to free agency or worse, trades.

Yes, I understand that free agency and trades aren’t necessarilly a bad thing, and some teams have built excellent rosters through these means, but the Mariners aren’t one of them. For every free agent in the plus column (Johjima, Ibanez, Beltre, even Batista…) there seems to be three or four acquisitions that are just horrendous mistakes.

The Mariners farm system has finally started to recover from the disastrous Gillick era, but the team is still going to have to patch some holes–through free agency or trades, and I don’t have any faith in the ability of this front office to do so.

Wait a second, here.

I have to interject.

I have made this mistake, too, because I did not have all the proper information, but…

But Pat Gillick did not “destroy” the farm system.

There are several things that need to be said on this subject, once and for all.

1. The GM, while somewhat responsible in the end, is not generally the person making the draft decisions, as the scouting director, who usually wins out with his recommendations, hold that responsibility.

2. The club, and this goes for many, many clubs, if not all, decides every year what kind of cash they are going to spend in the draft, which has an enormous effect on what kind of player is drafted.

Not just the position, but whether it’s a college guy or a prep pick, a tools player or a polished kid with a little less upside but less risk.

3. Gillick was here to do a job, and it wasn’t to build the Mariners farm system. While a few GMs are able to do both - in the lon, long term, however - Gillick was asked to come in and make the Mariners a winning team and get them in the postseason.

And he did that his first two years here and they were very competitive in his final two.

But the result of spending the money on free agents was sacrificing high draft picks in 2000 and 2001, although you can argue that it made NO SENSE to give up Carlos Quentin’s draft slot for Greg Colbrunn, Pat didn’t have much to play with in that regard.

Not much money, didn’t have high draft picks and wasn’t supposed to be building the farm system in the first place.

Granted, maybe it’s something he can’t do, but we don’t have the proper evidence to support such a claim.

It’s funny how Gillick was reluctant to trade away the farm at the deadline to acquire more help and we were all pissed. Including me.

I used to shred Pat and his staff (Mattox, Jongerwaard)for the drafts that took place while Pat was the GM here, but it no longer applies after learning what I have about his tenure here.

But, to counter such a statement, check out the 2003 draft… Ryan Feierabend, Eric O’Flaherty, Adam Jones.

That’s worked out pretty good.