There are four starting pitchers with aspirations of playing in Major league Baseball in 2008, and all of them reportedly interest the Seattle Mariners at some level.
By all accounts, Hiroki Kuroda is the best of the free-agent bunch, followed by Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami - all right-handers.
Kazumi Saitoh, probably the best pure arm in Japan, could be posted by his club the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, adding to the depth of this year’s NPB class.
Prospect Insider went digging for information on all four pitchers, using a shiny new Sony Ericsson as the shovel, and came up with the following dirt.
Hiroki Kuroda, RHP - Hiroshima Toyo CarpHt/Wt: 6-0/200
Age: 33
2007: 26GS, 7 CG, 12-8, 3.56 ERA, 179 2/3 IP, .261 BAA, 20 HR, 123 K, 42 BBStuff -
Fastball:
Kuroda sits 90-92 with a four-seam fastball that shows good leverage, although only a fair amount of sink. He will touch 93-94 at times and with good arm side tail that is very effective against right-handed batters.
He has solid command of the fastball and is not afraid to elevate the pitch to change planes to give the hitter something else to look at, which is ideal since the 33-year-old does not throw a curve ball.
He surrendered 20 homers in his 179 2/3 innings, which is a solid number considering the size of the ballparks, but would benefit greatly from Safeco Field’s spacious alleys.
Slider:
Kuroda uses a true slider in the way that fellow Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka does, with good depth and varying velocities. Kuroda will typically rush his slider to the plate in the 84-86 mph range, but will need to keep the pitch down more consistently in the states.
At times he’ll fall in love with his slider a little bit, which is consistent with other Japanese pitchers.
Splitter:
Kuroda’s fork-split is his best pitch and the one in which he will record the majority of his strikeouts. He’s capable of throwing it for strikes, but it’s much more effective as a change-of-pace offering that falls off the table into the dirt.
He will induce some swings and misses with it as it travels to the plate in the 82-86 mph range.
The Scoop:
Kuroda is the class of the three free agents and will get the most interest but he profiles as a No. 3 at best, depending mostly on how well he adapts to the patient approach of the hitters in MLB.
He’s slow to the plate but has a relatively compact and clean delivery that gives his fastball some late life. Needs to improve holding runners (this will be something all four scouting reports will read, as it’s generally not a strong area for Japanese pitchers).
Considering the domestic market, Kuroda, even at 33 years old, could command a contract in the $9-11 million range, for at least three years.
“He could blow, like most of the starters that have come from Japan,” said a scout that saw the three free agents this past summer. “But he is the one the group of starters that stands out.”
Seattle’s interest level is believed to be very high.
Koji Uehara, RHP - Yomiuri GiantsHt/Wt: 6-1/195
Age: 33
2007: 55G, 4-3, 1.74 ERA, 62 ip, 66 K, 4 BB, .206 BAA, 32 S
Stuff - Fastball:
Sits in the 89-91 mph range with a four-seamer, but can reach 93-94 as he pitches exclusively in relief after spending the first eight and a half years of his career as a starter.Uehara elevates his fastball effectively, but doesn’t have the life, movement or velocity on his heater to get away with that on a regular basis in MLB.
He has tremendous command, as evidenced by the four walks issues in more than 60 innings.
Curve:
As I watched Uehara pitch, the video I was sent had 50 fastballs, 40 curves and 40 cuts of his third pitch split up to be seen in that order. When I got to his curve ball, I said to myself, “this is going to be his best pitch right here.”
I underestimated the 33-year-old, but his curve ball grades as slightly above average. A full two-plane breaking ball in the 74-77 mph range, Uehara gets plenty of whiffs with this pitch.
Splider:
Perhaps the best pitch of any arm in either Japanese circuit is Uehara’s splider. Yes, you read that right, I’m calling it a splider, because it has many characteristics of both the slider and the split-finger or forkball.
With a consistent 5/8 release point and good arm action, Uehara’s splider has a nasty spiking action, breaking late and down and away from a right-hander and in on a lefty.
It’s a plus pitch that he’ll use in any count. It reminded one scout of a former Mariners closer, before his days in Seattle.
“Yeah, it’s pretty filthy,” he said with big eyes as he remembered seeing it for the first time. “It’s a little like Kaz’s (Sasaki) forkball before he got hurt. Sharp, biting action very late in it’s path to the plate. Great deception. Not as much of the velocity there as Sasaki had originally, but otherwise it’s the same pitch.”
Change:
More of a show-me pitch for Uehara now, as he’s pretty much shelved the palmball change from the bullpen.
A below-average pitch, but worth using on occasion to show something different from the fastball and splider.
The Scoop:
Uehara may not be able to return to the starting rotation due to shoulder problems as he made all 55 appearances in 2007 in relief. His market in the US as a reliever are likely favorable to that of Boston Red Sox left-hander Hideki Okajima, who received a 2-year, $2.5 million deal last winter.
The fact that it’s possible, though highly unlikely, that Uehara returns to form as a starter, the possibility is enough to get him more money in this year’s market.
In the rotation, Uehara was typically throwing 90-92, but that was prior to the shoulder problems.
Kenshin Kawakami, RHP - Chunichi DragonsHt/Wt: 5-11, 205
Age: 32
2007: 26 GS, 12-8, 3.55 ERA, 167 1/3 ip, 145 K, , 23 BB, .268 BAAStuff -
Kawakami uses a fastball in the 88-91 mph range and plus command to set up an average slurve and slightly above average split-finger.He has a rep for being a smart pitcher and typically gets more ground balls than par for a Japanese hurler, which makes him attractive to clubs in the US that are seeking backend starters to avoid the long ball in small ballparks - such as Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Houston.Kawakami reminds many of Aaron Sele as his curve ball is his best pitch and he’s never blown anyone away with his fastball. He relies more on location and guile than he used to and should help someone in the states.
And if a pitching guru in MLB can find a way to properly balance his delivery out, he may jump back into the 91-94 mph range where he sat as a 27-year-old All-Star.
The Scoop:
It’s tough to guage what kind of money Kawakami would command should he decide to pursue a career in the states, but he’s just as good, if not better, than half of the free agent starters in the US this winter, so…
Kazumi Saitoh, RHP - Fukuoka Softbank Hawks Ht/Wt: 6-2/195
Age: 30
2007: 6-3, 2.74 ERA, 72 1/3 ip, 71 K, 25 BB, .245 BAAStuff -
Fastball:
Saitoh, when fully healthy, employs a fastball in the 90-93 mph range, and can dial it up to the mid-90s when necessary. His command is above average and his heater explodes into the strike zone, and with his deceptive delivery, will induce a lot of strikeouts when he properly locates an elevated fastball.
Slider:
In Japan, Saitoh’s curve and screwball-like change are probably his best two pitches, but in the states, his slider will likely surpass his curve as the most effective breaking ball.
Sitting in the 85-87 mph range with late break and average depth, Saitoh should be effective versus right-handers sitting on the four-seamer.
His slider is a tick above average but plays up when he throwing his other offspeed pitches for strikes.
Curve ball:
Using a classic overhand curve from a 5/8 arm slot, Saitoh’s 75-77 mph curve ball is a solid change-of-pace offering that keeps both lefties and righties off balance when he’s consistent with his arm actions.
He may have to limit the number of curve balls he throws a little bit, or at least scheme its use more, as the offensive machines in the AL especially can make the adjustments to such a pitch in mid-air.
It will remain a weapon for him, however.
Change:
This pitch can classified as a changeup, a split-finger, a forkball or a screwball even, as it’s depth and fade away from left-handed batters grades this offering a plus.
Usually hitting the 80-82 mph range, it’s a perfect compliment to a fastball-slider combination.
The Scoop:
Saitoh has a year left on his contract with the Hawks and will have to be posted if he wishes to come to MLB this winter.
If he does, the Mariners will certainly have interest, but there is concern about Saitoh’s health, as he made just 12 starts and has a lot of “dropped for re-adjustment” tags on his transactions list, which is another way of saying he couldn’t stay off the disabled list in 2007.
I have heard conflicting reports on what the injuries were, varying from shoulder to elbow to back to both shoulder and back, but at 30 years of age and with the right medical homework, he’s the best possibility for teams in the states to add a quality starting pitcher to their rotation this offseason.
“I think a healthy Saitoh is a legit No. 3,” said an American League scout of Saitoh. “His double-pause delivery is more than just deceptive, it’s disruptive, and while he will need to work on his effectiveness with runners on base, he’s a fine arm, and all of that will be in my report.”
Early rumors have posting fees bettering the $25 million that the Yankees handed Kei Igawa a year ago, but his health concerns could possibly curb those numbers. Don’t count on it, but that is certainly possible.
Thanks for posting this. I had previously been watching the situations with Uehara, Kawakami and Saitoh but missed the action with Kuroda.
Among things I’ve read, the most curious were things about Uehara. in 1998 Uehara was offered a $3M contract by the Anaheim Angels but instead posted for the NPB’s draft. A couple things I read that I was curious if you knew it was bull or reliable:
Speculation that his desire to be posted (since 2004) and the fact that he was gone at the end of the year anyway may have had something to do with his being/remaining the closer after returning from injury.
I also read that his inactivity in the first month of the season may cause him to be with his team over a month into the coming season. Is this a possibility with their FA rules? I can’t find anything more on it…
BTW, from the things I’ve read and seen I thought that Uehara would play very well at the Safe. If he’s not a possibility as a starter (most conflicting reports I can find…) he could fill a spot in the pen with Morrow Starting in the Minors.
Do you think Kawakami or Saitoh would be a good fit for the M’s and Safeco? I understand we’re not talking about a #2, but a couple #4’s would be a great improvement. Not that I think they’d sign both. What am I saying, a couple #5’s would be a vast improvement over this year. No disrespect to the starters that pitched well-to-fairly, I meant the back end.
Weren’t people arguing that Saitoh was a better pitcher than Matsuzaka when all the hype started surrounding Daisuke? I remember seeing some video of Saitoh last year and he has some hellashish stuff.
Yes, threenil, most think he was right there with Dice, some think he wasnt quite that good.
If he’s healthy enough for the future and teams believe that, he’s going to get a lot of dough.
JapanBall.com reports that Kuroda is coming to the US to get checked for an elbow injury. Do the M’s have the scouting to know the real health of these pitchers?
Will the posting process Saitoh scare the M’s off? The only reason I say that is because a pitcher like Kuroda does not have one.
I tried to trick one of the M’s scouts on that very thing, and he didn’t fall for it, so yeah, they are up to speed.
I think the M’s would prefer NOT to post, of course, but injuries are more of an issue with Saitoh and Uehara (and his future role) than Kuroda, which is why I’m sure they will more than likely go harder after the free agent.
Good stuff.
Saito’s a tough call. I think under Oh, they’d post him, but at the same time, not being able to stay on the field has to hurt Saito’s ego. The Hawks also traded Terahara for Tamura last season with the idea, I assume, that Saito would stay around for a little bit. Frankly, I’d be surprised if he got posted.
As for the Giants, they have a history of being perhaps the most anti-posting, indentured servitude obsessed, no-nonsense loyalty demanding teams in the NPB. It would not be surprising if they stabbed Uehara with every single minor detail from the book.
Fukudome will be getting FA due to a rule that apparently says that if a player had 145 days the previous year, they’d be awarded FA the next, even with DL time (via Deanna, via Bedir). But I have no idea how Uehara’s situation will shake out.
I have been told that if they think Saitoh is going to fetch them 25 million, they will do it.
He wants to come to the US, and he has but one year left on his deal so he’d just come over after next season and the Hawks would get nothing in return.
I imagine if it’s going to be anywhere near the 20 range, they post him. So they’ll have to talk to the right people to get the best assessment of the market for him.
I live in Japan, so I have some info about Japanese players.
Certainly Saito have one year left on his current deal, but he will be a free agent after 2010 season.
Uehara and Kawakami will be a free agent after 2008 season.
I heard the Chiba Lotte Marines reliever Yasuhiko Yabuta could be a major league. He is a fine reliever.
Jason,
Is there anyone in the major leagues that throws a “splider” like Uehara does?
I sure hope we nab at least one of these guys. Even though they are all 30+, they are a helluva lot better than what is available in the US.
We’ll see. There will be mad compeitition most likely.
Slack,
Not that I know of, but probably. Pitches are so subjective to the guy throwing it that it’s likely someone does.
“We’ll see. There will be mad competition most likely.”
That’s what I’m wondering about. How do any of these pitchers compare to Carlos Silva?
Silva seems to be the most predictable FA pitcher this offseason with a dependable health track record.
Silva is safer, but he’s a No. 4/5 for sure. Kuroda has a chance to be an average 3 and Saitoh has the stuff to be a 2/3.
If Saitoh is posted, is it possible that the M’s could go after both Kuroda and Saitoh, or is that too expensive?
I agree Silva is the safer play.I got a unique idea why dont we just try and make a couple guys in are farm system starters like RRS are Thomas?
Thomas IS a starter, he just can’t stay healthy.
And RRS is in Venezuela so they can take a look at him in longer stretches.
Morrow, too.
Jason, I came across this:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/10/top-3-japanese-.html
Which then led me to look up this:
http://www.japanball.com/index.htm
And that’s where I found this:
http://www.bavasisports.com/principals.htm
#1: This oddly funny.
#2: This is somewhat scary.
LOL…
I think it’s just #1
Well, I hope blood is thicker than water in the Bavasi family. It’s be nice to get some freebies out of this.
mlbtraderumors said this about fukudome: “he’s the best Japanese position player in either league.”
Are they seriously saying he’s better than Ichiro?? Or am I misinterpreting what they are saying?
Either Japanese league, Pacific or Central.
He’s not even better than Hideki Matsui, let alone Ichiro.
He’s really just a bat, too. Not a plus defender, despite the fact that some reports are claiming he can “play center field.”
No idea where that is coming from, but he can handle either corner.
Would be an interesting get for Seattle in place of Guillen. He’s a lefty stick with good power to his pull side.
Is his closest market rival Geoff Jenkins?
That’s not far off, though I’d give Fukudome the edge physically, but some of that is because he’s younger.
He is more fundamentally sound and has a better natural approach at the plate.
And at 30, 31 in April, he’s got a decent chance to have a handful of solid years in the US.
But he’s not Hideki Matsui by any account. If I had to take a guess without some scouting opinions to mix in with it, I’d say he’s a .270/.350/.475 guy over here, give or take 10-15%.
He can handle lefties, too, at least in Japan, so maybe at the plate he’s Raul Ibanez + hitting lefties at a satisfactory rate.
“If I had to take a guess without some scouting opinions to mix in with it, I’d say he’s a .270/.350/.475 guy over here, give or take 10-15%.”
You realize Matsui hit .287/.353/.435 his first year in the states. For his career, Godzilla has hit .295/.371/.485.
So, you say he’s not Matsui, but then predict numbers that aren’t that far off…
I’m on the Fukudome bandwagon and would love to see him patrolling RF for the M’s next year. But, he hasn’t been the power hitter that Matsui was.
Last three years in Japan:
Fukudome: .329 with 72 HR and 210 BBs over 1280 ABs
Matsui: .328 with 128 HR and 340 BBs over 1455 ABs
Any idea if park factors heavily influenced either of those stats?
Maybe we should check with Japanese Baseball guru Bob Bavasi?
Sorry, couldn’t resist. ;-)
Screw Matsui’s first year, there is always an adjustment period for guys who hit with some power.
What’s he done since then? That’s who Matsui is.
Removing year one, Hideki Matsui is in the .300/.390/.500 range.
That’s a difference in comparison to .270/.350/.475, and those are neutral numbers, I’m not thinking about park effects if he were to come to Seattle or another pitcher’s park.
And park factors always aid the bats over there, because the parks are band boxes, but I believe both had the same advantage.
So, no, he isn’t Matsui, but he’s a pretty good bat. Wouldn’t you say Matsui is a little bit better than just “pretty good”?
It’d be an interesting winter if the Mariners let Guillen walk and snagged Kuroda or Saitoh and Fukudome.
Again, guys, I haven’t talked to anyone about Fukudome, and probably won’t, I’m just more dialed in on the arms over there, as always, so these are just my best guesses according to what I have heard from general discussion and having seen 50 ABs on video.
And I really think a guy like that has problems in year one and part of year two even, particularly in the strikeouts department.
Even Hideki Matsui fanned 189 times in his first two seasons and hasn’t gone over 78 in a year since.
any opinion on Dave Wallace, Jason?
Jason - we’re on the same page. I think I just misunderstood when you were saying what you expected Fukudome to hit - I thought you were saying that’s what you’d expect him to put up in his first year. I totally agree he’d be a good bat and fits the M’s needs perfectly (especially if they’re dead set against Jones + Balentien). If the M’s got Saitoh and Fukudome, I would be THRILLED, to say the least.
if that happened id drink a beer. Well with this orgaizations methords and Lincon still here i doubt it.
My short opinion on Wallace is…
Good move.
I’ve been curious if I’m the only one who thinks Uehara might be worth the risk. His dominance carried over to the Bullpen and as a reliever he gives a look that differs from most other relievers. I’m sure Jason and some others are familiar with his career, but for those who aren’t:
*In 195 career games before becoming Closer he had 54 CG. More than 1 in 4…
*In 1459.1 Career IP he’s had 1304 SO, 1264 H and 190 BB’s…That’s:
8.04 K/9
1.17 BB/9
0.99 WHIP
Over his entire career…
This is a guy who cried on the mound when told to intentionally walk Matsui because his teammate (Petagine) was 1 HR behind Hideki in the leaderboard. He thinks that giving up a walk is worse than giving up a hit and it shows in his stats.
Even with the questions about his arm being healthy enough to resume being a starter, his command was still there as a releif ace this year.
If his starting career is truly to be over before hitting the states, I must mourn it.
You aren’t alone, wish.
Should the Mariners take a look at Mike Maroth as an option for the 5th starter? He seemed to do ok when he was healthy. Is there still a question about his health?
He was at best a No. 5 when he was healthy.
We have those.
Seattle shouldn’t be looking at ANY starters that aren’t better than Cha Seung Baek would be on regular basis, and they better be damned sure about it if it’s going to cost them 3 years or more and decent money.
Silva is not the answer if he’s going to cost three years.
Maroth is pretty bad.
Fukudome played center for most of the WBC. He looked pretty fine out there too, though Ichiro is better and Oh ended up going with Aoki and Kinjoh in the later rounds, due to Fukudome slumping awfully until he met Byung-Hyun Kim. But the Yanks and YGiants have also played Matsui in Center as well, so Fukudome wouldn’t be the worst of Japanese center fielders.
The big factor between Fukudome and Matsui is that Fukudome’s Nagoya Dome plays more like a cavern compared to Matsui’s Tokyo Dome. Tokyo Dome has 360 ft. power alleys, with AC that blows out towards the stands. It’s seriously a joke, even compared to Jingu, which has 298 ft. corners. Some lame hits get in the stands at Tokyo Dome. In contrast, Nagoya Dome (and most PL stadiums too) have power alleys that are 380+. But CL parks are, for the most part, bandboxes compared to the MLB or even the PL.
Finally, Kuroda’s Hiroshima Municipal Stadium is also a tiny, tiny stadium, with dimensions of 300-360-380-360-300 from home. Kuroda’s HR numbers may be ugly, but when you consider the tiny dimensions… Not too bad.
Fukudome is not a center fielder in the US. Not regularly. I’ve seen enough of him to know that.
The park factors between those bats show up in their power numbers. Matsui was hitting 35-50 bombs while Kosuke is hitting 25-30.
Fukudome will do just fine over here, and fits well in Seattle.
One thing he does better than Matsui is cover ground in the outfield, and he throws better.
And yeah, that’s a big reason why Kuroda’s overall numbers have to be ignored to an extent. You really have to scout him and see what he brings. The ballparks certainly don’t help the pitchers’ numbers in Japan.
I’m not overly impressed by him, but he should be able to help someone in the states.
A couple people on the blog link that was deleted (no need to repost which one) are also under the impression that Uehara ran short on service time and will remain in Japan another year.
If he’s out I like Kawakami the best. I think command and control are the things that translate best between leagues and Uehara was the only one of the 4 with better command than Kawakami. He has seemed to be the least hyped and might be a bargain in comparison as well.
The new service time rule will help Uehara. DL time counts now.
Accidentally crossed up Matsui and Petagine, the way it looks. Excuse me please. Seems obvious since Petagine went on to win the HR title that year and the IBB was therefore also meaningless, but split hairs however you want. I was referring to the correct players, just listed them incorrectly.
deanna, there are many in the US media who believe that Uehara has an out clause if he wants to go to MLB.
Deanna,
Where the hell do you get off talking to anyone here like that?
What the hell is is the matter with you?
Get lost.
[...] at Prospect Insider, Jason A. Churchill offered up a very detailed and complete scouting report on the Japanese right [...]
[...] at Prospect Insider, Jason A. Churchill offered up a very detailed and complete scouting report on the [...]
[...] Prospect Insider gives us a comprehensive scouting report on the 33-year-old pitcher: Fastball: Kuroda sits 90-92 with a four-seam fastball that shows good leverage, although only a fair amount of sink. He will touch 93-94 at times and with good arm side tail that is very effective against right-handed batters.He has solid command of the fastball and is not afraid to elevate the pitch to change planes to give the hitter something else to look at, which is ideal since the 33-year-old does not throw a curve ball. [...]
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