By now we all should know how the Seattle Mariners operate, including what kind of player they typically seek out on the open free agent and trade markets. It’s rarely about the best player, but rather the best player who qualifies under their preposterous “good guy,” “local boy” or “fiery leader” requirements, which obviously eliminates them from acquiring better talent than they generally do.

The local connection syndrome is plain stupid, but that has been beaten to death over the years, as has the organization’s overwhelming desire for the good guy. Yeah, sure, they took a few chances the past few seasons on Carl Everett, a failed attempt, and Jose Guillen, who was probably the team’s best bat from April through September this past season.

But there’s a reason why Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong were each ok with GM Bill Bavasi handing out $10 million in guaranteed cash to Everett and Guillen, who displayed the tendency to wear out their welcome with several previous employers.

They miss Jay Buhner.

They don’t necessarily miss the 40 home runs, the consistent all-out hustle and the strong on-base skills, oh no. They miss two things in particular; his popularity with the fans that helped line their pockets, and the ingredient that inclined their desire for Everett and Guillen - fire.

Jay Buhner was a fiery leader who spoke out when no other players would. Whether it was a pep talk or tough love or a championship caliber speech laced with inspiring profanity, Bone was that kind of player.

So as you graze over all the ideas to improve the 2008 Seattle Mariners, remember who is making these decisions and the things they believe works in the game of baseball.

Just don’t get them confused with the beliefs of anyone smart enough to know that those attributes don’t win baseball games.

Buhner’s leadership would have meant nothing to the rest of that roster if he was a .220-hitting, no-field fifth outfielder who kissed the ass of the coaching staff to get playing time and a multi-year arbitration contract.

Junior, Edgar and the boys would have shut him up long before he could ever say “Fuck the wildcard.” He wouldn’t have mattered at all if he couldn’t play the game at a high level. I don’t know where you sit on this subject - for all I know, you buy into it, too - but I would think you’d prefer, for example, that your favorite team landed, say, Ryan Howard this winter rather than Jeff Conine, right?

So when you run across quotes like this…

“Listen… we’re not just a good team. We’re a great team, and don’t you fuckin’ forget that. And let’s go play one at a time and go prove that. Because let me tell you something….”

[The player] pulled on the sides of his gray road jersey. “There’s a reason why you wear this uniform….”

He paused for a beat, letting the suspenseful silence fill the rapt room.

“Because you’re a bad motherfucker.”

…remember that the reason why the player who said these words to his team before a rather crucial game this October is an MVP candidate year-in and year-out is not because he says these words to his team before crucial games in October.

It’s because he can hit at the highest of levels, smashing good pitching, bad pitching, mediocre pitching, terrible pitching, righty pitching, lefty pitching, starters, closers, at his home park and every road park in every situation and for average, for big-time power, leading his team into October to begin with.

So here’s wishing good luck [desperately needing it] to the Seattle Mariners front office and ownership representatives as they begin to unfold their plan to put a winning baseball team on the field at the Safe in 2008.

Most, if not all of us know that David Ortiz is great because he can rake with the best of them. Hopefully, at some point, Lincoln and Armstrong, and to a lesser extent Bill Bavasi and company either purchase a clue, or are replaced with those who are proud owners of said clues and treat the fans that have so unconditionally loved and supported this team - and their bank accounts - for the last 13 seasons, with the team they deserve.

Boston Red Sox fans paid dearly for their World Series titles, but they now have two because they are the best run big-market franchise in the game, making sound decisions regularly.

Seattle’s faithful has paid a price, too, and while it certainly hasn’t been 86 years, it’s been a lifetime for many. David Ortiz is a perfect example of what all teams should be after, but for the right reasons, not because he can make goosebump-raising speeches.

The job that Colorado Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd and his entire staff has done the past three seasons is a perfect example, too. Not because they went out and traded for 25 leaders or the hitters with the best batting average or the pitchers with the most wins. But because they went about things the right way, and didn’t force the issue and make mistake after mistake after mistake, setting the club back over and over.

The Sox are a perfect example of mixing payroll with youth, experience and a balanced staff of players, coaches and managers, to go with a front office whose ownership hired them to do a job and allows them the freedom in which to do it.

Is it that hard to copycat in baseball?

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Yeah, sure, it’s the Venezuelan Winter Leagues and he’s pitching against Double-A level lineups, but Seattle Mariners left-hander Ryan Rowland-Smith has never been accused of being short on stuff. He can get big leaguers out with regularity as he proved this past season in a relief role.

The question has always been whether the Australian native do it for six-plus innings at a time, or is he going to be relegated to the bullpen.

In his third start for the Lara Cardenales, Rowland-Smith went six shutout innings and allowed just six baserunners - three singles a double and two walks - and struck out three in 7-0 Lara victory over Magallenes.
The 24-year-old has improved his outings all three times out, and in 14 1/3 innings has fanned 12 and walked six, surrendering four runs on 11 hits. In his first appearance Rowland-Smith went 3 2/3 innings and gave up two earned runs on three hits and whiffed six batters against two walks, and went 4 2/3 innings allowing another two earned runs in his previous start.

“He look a little rusty the first two times out,” said one former big-league manager who is now serving his National League Central club in a scouting role. “And while he was better today, he still wasn’t as sharp as I saw him in August in Seattle. But he has pretty good stuff.”

Is it enough stuff to start, and can he sustain it for six and seven innings per?

“I don’t see why not, unless he has durability issues in the past. His fastball has plenty on it and his breaking ball is a plus pitch. He’ll probably have to use his changeup more if he’s going to start games, but it’s good enough.”

If Rowland-Smith impresses the Mariners enough down in Venezuela, they may have one less starting pitcher to acquire over the offseason. And though it sure wouldn’t hurt to get two veteran upgrades, it may not be anywhere near cost effective to do so, especially when the club has holes on other parts of the roster, too.

“Judging by what I’ve seen,” said the scout, “of both Rowland-Smith in relief, as a starter, and of the free agent market - and that includes the Japanese market, which is bare also - I’d have to go to spring camp with two kids like (Brandon) Morrow and Rowland-Smith and he who pitches best in March wins the spot.

“Neither could possibly have the implodability that Jeff Weaver and (Horacio) Ramirez has this year, right?”

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While the Hawaiian Winter Baseball League is rolling along with the unexciting names from the Mariners organization - Mike Wilson, Aaron Jensen, Josh Womack and Harold Williams - the Arizona Fall League and the Venezuelan Winter League are both underway, carrying several intriguing names from the system.

Jeff Clement, Matt Tuiasosopo and Yung Chi Chen are impressing scouts in the desert while numerous players from the organization are sprinkled up and down the roster of the Lara Cardenales.

The biggest and perhaps most important name on the Cards’ roster is right-hander Brandon Morrow. He’s expected to make at least a half-dozen starter-like appearances, beginning with a 20-pitch limit that’s stretched as high as 75-90, but the season is 10 days underway and Morrow has yet to pitch, leaving nothing to report to date.

The word is that there is nothing wrong with Morrow, they just wanted to get him a full month’s rest before heating his arm back up again.

Morrow recently told reporters that he’s there to work on his slider and change for the most part, but hopefully he’s also thinking more about his fastball command, which was a major issue in his rookie season.

Ryan Rowland-Smith is also in Vevenzuela to stretch his arm out a bit, and though the ballclub is not sure what his role will be in the future, they clearly want starting to be an option for the left-hander.

I recently spoke with one of the pitching coaches that has worked with Rowland-Smith in the past, and he believes this is a good idea.

“He only went to relief because he had success there and we needed him to experience success at some point. He never really struggled all that much as a starter, but we got the chance to get him in situations where his stuff could dominate to an extent, and using him for two or three innings instead of six was ideal for that.

“He wasn’t taken out of the rotation down here because he couldn’t start. His situation is very different from that of (Mark) Lowe and (Eric) O’Flaherty. Those two had separate factors that made their career paths much more stable by pitching in relief.”

Lowe concurred, and then some, when Prospect Insider spoke to the 24-year-old in Tacoma in September.

“I just couldn’t do it,” Lowe said. “I’d get through two or three innings and it was like I couldn’t make my pitches anymore. I love coming in out of the pen.”

O’Flaherty and Lowe both caught fire in a two-team stint in High-A Inland Empire and AA San Antonio in 2006, and Lowe remembers the conversation that helped both pitchers re-focus their efforts and get to the big leagues.

“O’Flaherty and I were soaking in the hot tub and we starting saying, ‘look who else is up there - that could be us. That should be us, we are better than some of those guys. We aren’t that far away, let’s do this.’ After that we kind of had an extra jolt of adrenaline and it got us where we are.”

O’Flaherty experienced back problems in Class A Wisconsin as a starter, and has pitched exclusively in relief ever since.

On the contrary, Rowland-Smith got to the big leagues and experienced success out of the bullpen during the season’s second half without being forced to the ‘pen due to ineffectiveness. He posted k/9 rates of 7.76 as a starter in the minors while his walk rate was almost identical in either role.

And even though I originally had reservations about him returning to the rotation, I see no reason why he can’t get a handful of starts in the VWL to prep him for a shot at the 5-slot in Spring Training. There’s no downside to it at all - he’s not a major injury risk and he can always return to his role in the bullpen if he doesn’t cut it as a starter, or if the club finds a better option elsewhere.

Rowland-Smith better equipped to make that transition right now than is Morrow, and though he does not want to start the year in the minors, GM Bill Bavasi even admits that Morrow really should have been there last year.

“Really, he should be at Double-A, Triple-A or maybe a late-season callup,” Bavasi told the Seattle Times and Baseball America.

Oddly enough, or maybe not so oddly, Rowland-Smith’s presence could save the Mariners from making a second mistake by rushing Morrow a second straight spring. If the Aussie left-hander can successfully re-enter the starting rotation - albeit this time at the big-league level - Brandon Morrow can remain in Triple-A Tacoma where he will have a legit chance to fully develop his slider and changeup.

While you can keep up with the numbers on your own, I’ll be sure and get a scout’s take on these two as the VWL schedule plays out.

Other M’s on the roster include pitchers Ivan Blanco, Jose Jimenez, Cibney Bello, Cesar Jimenez, Jose Escalona, Marwin Vega, Sean White and Brad Thomas, infielder Jose Lopez, Jesus Guzman, Oswaldo Navarro and Luis Valbuena, and outfielders Wladimir Balentien and Charleton Jimerson.

Former Mariners pitchers Rich Dorman, Renee Cortez, Giovanni Carrrara and catchers Wiki Gonzalez and Guillermo Quiroz are also on the roster, as are infielder Asdrubal Cabrera and utility player Luis Ugueto, the rule 5 kid himself.

Moises Hernandez, Felix’s older brother, is also back home playing winter ball.

Catcher Juan Beltran, 3B Leury Bonilla and outfielder Eddy Hernandez are playing in the Dominican League, though none of the three are prospects.

The Arizona Fall League

I was going to save this for the newsletter set go out next week — if you haven’t signed up for that, you’re going to want to. The vast majority of the offseason rumor mill is going to be a newsletter exclusive, beginning next Friday, November 3 — but I’ll go ahead and slot it in right here.

Jeff Clement, C

Clement is hitting the ball pretty well down in Arizona in the early going, and though it is against sub par pitching, as usual in the AFL, he’s squaring up balls and showing the same strong approach he did in the final few weeks during his September call-up. A handful of scouts have commented on his status as a big-leaguer, both at the plate, and behind it.

Scout 1 - “I’m not sure he’s going to hit for quite enough power to be an everyday first baseman, but if he can stick behind the plate, he’s a plus bat- and from the left side, that’s a pretty thing.”

Scout 2 - “He’s an average defender right now, which should be enough to ultimately get him a starting catcher’s role with Seattle. His bat is special - for a catcher. It’s merely average for a DH, but he might still have some development left there, as well as behind the plate.”

Scout 3 - Clement “is borderline at best behind the dish, but he has huge pull power and should be good for 25-plus homers a season for a team willing to put up with his defense.”

Yung Chi Chen, 2B

Scout 1 - “He’s a real solid baseball player showing some strong fundamental skills, and decent speed. I like his footwork around the bag at second compared to where he was two years ago in A ball, too. I think he can manage second base and his bat, while lacking pop, holds its own.”

Scout 2 - “He’s ideal for a utility spot, especially if he can learn to play some outfield. I don’t think he’ll hit enough to play everyday, but the physical tools are there for him to be average in most areas, and average across the board can make one a regular.”

Scout 3 - “Two words: Placido Polanco. Polanco bloomed late with many of the same physical skills and Chen could follow a similar path.”

Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B

Scout 1 -”Despite being somewhat raw, Tuiasosopo showed he can center the ball and drive it when he relies on his bat speed and upper-body strength rather than trying to loft the ball with his swing. Unlike a lot of tools guys who lack a feel for hitting, he showed he would take soft stuff away to the other side.”

Scout 2 - “He may have the most polished approach of any high school draftee down here. For a kid relying on athletic ability, he’s done a pretty good job turning things around since his bad year. He still has a chance to be a regular, but it will all be decided with his bat.”

Scout 3 - “Can I use the ‘two words’ thing again? Notta disappointment. That work?”

The Mariners sent pitchers Mumba Rivera, Joe Woerman and Ricky Orta, and while all three have above-average fastballs, the trio are all better suited for relief work, and thus are not prospects at this time.

Woerman has turned himself into a legit pitcher, however, and Orta has above-average stuff that the Mariners will ride out in the starter’s role.

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There are four starting pitchers with aspirations of playing in Major league Baseball in 2008, and all of them reportedly interest the Seattle Mariners at some level.

By all accounts, Hiroki Kuroda is the best of the free-agent bunch, followed by Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami - all right-handers.

Kazumi Saitoh, probably the best pure arm in Japan, could be posted by his club the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, adding to the depth of this year’s NPB class.
Prospect Insider went digging for information on all four pitchers, using a shiny new Sony Ericsson as the shovel, and came up with the following dirt.

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Hiroki Kuroda, RHP - Hiroshima Toyo Carp
Ht/Wt: 6-0/200
Age: 33
2007: 26GS, 7 CG, 12-8, 3.56 ERA, 179 2/3 IP, .261 BAA, 20 HR, 123 K, 42 BBStuff -

Fastball:
Kuroda sits 90-92 with a four-seam fastball that shows good leverage, although only a fair amount of sink. He will touch 93-94 at times and with good arm side tail that is very effective against right-handed batters.

He has solid command of the fastball and is not afraid to elevate the pitch to change planes to give the hitter something else to look at, which is ideal since the 33-year-old does not throw a curve ball.

He surrendered 20 homers in his 179 2/3 innings, which is a solid number considering the size of the ballparks, but would benefit greatly from Safeco Field’s spacious alleys.

Slider:
Kuroda uses a true slider in the way that fellow Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka does, with good depth and varying velocities. Kuroda will typically rush his slider to the plate in the 84-86 mph range, but will need to keep the pitch down more consistently in the states.

At times he’ll fall in love with his slider a little bit, which is consistent with other Japanese pitchers.

Splitter:
Kuroda’s fork-split is his best pitch and the one in which he will record the majority of his strikeouts. He’s capable of throwing it for strikes, but it’s much more effective as a change-of-pace offering that falls off the table into the dirt.

He will induce some swings and misses with it as it travels to the plate in the 82-86 mph range.

The Scoop:
Kuroda is the class of the three free agents and will get the most interest but he profiles as a No. 3 at best, depending mostly on how well he adapts to the patient approach of the hitters in MLB.

He’s slow to the plate but has a relatively compact and clean delivery that gives his fastball some late life. Needs to improve holding runners (this will be something all four scouting reports will read, as it’s generally not a strong area for Japanese pitchers).

Considering the domestic market, Kuroda, even at 33 years old, could command a contract in the $9-11 million range, for at least three years.

“He could blow, like most of the starters that have come from Japan,” said a scout that saw the three free agents this past summer. “But he is the one the group of starters that stands out.”

Seattle’s interest level is believed to be very high.

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Koji Uehara, RHP - Yomiuri Giants
Ht/Wt: 6-1/195
Age: 33
2007: 55G, 4-3, 1.74 ERA, 62 ip, 66 K, 4 BB, .206 BAA, 32 S

Stuff - Fastball:
Sits in the 89-91 mph range with a four-seamer, but can reach 93-94 as he pitches exclusively in relief after spending the first eight and a half years of his career as a starter.Uehara elevates his fastball effectively, but doesn’t have the life, movement or velocity on his heater to get away with that on a regular basis in MLB.

He has tremendous command, as evidenced by the four walks issues in more than 60 innings.

Curve:
As I watched Uehara pitch, the video I was sent had 50 fastballs, 40 curves and 40 cuts of his third pitch split up to be seen in that order. When I got to his curve ball, I said to myself, “this is going to be his best pitch right here.”

I underestimated the 33-year-old, but his curve ball grades as slightly above average. A full two-plane breaking ball in the 74-77 mph range, Uehara gets plenty of whiffs with this pitch.

Splider:
Perhaps the best pitch of any arm in either Japanese circuit is Uehara’s splider. Yes, you read that right, I’m calling it a splider, because it has many characteristics of both the slider and the split-finger or forkball.

With a consistent 5/8 release point and good arm action, Uehara’s splider has a nasty spiking action, breaking late and down and away from a right-hander and in on a lefty.

It’s a plus pitch that he’ll use in any count. It reminded one scout of a former Mariners closer, before his days in Seattle.

“Yeah, it’s pretty filthy,” he said with big eyes as he remembered seeing it for the first time. “It’s a little like Kaz’s (Sasaki) forkball before he got hurt. Sharp, biting action very late in it’s path to the plate. Great deception. Not as much of the velocity there as Sasaki had originally, but otherwise it’s the same pitch.”

Change:
More of a show-me pitch for Uehara now, as he’s pretty much shelved the palmball change from the bullpen.

A below-average pitch, but worth using on occasion to show something different from the fastball and splider.

The Scoop:
Uehara may not be able to return to the starting rotation due to shoulder problems as he made all 55 appearances in 2007 in relief. His market in the US as a reliever are likely favorable to that of Boston Red Sox left-hander Hideki Okajima, who received a 2-year, $2.5 million deal last winter.

The fact that it’s possible, though highly unlikely, that Uehara returns to form as a starter, the possibility is enough to get him more money in this year’s market.

In the rotation, Uehara was typically throwing 90-92, but that was prior to the shoulder problems.

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Kenshin Kawakami, RHP - Chunichi Dragons
Ht/Wt: 5-11, 205
Age: 32
2007: 26 GS, 12-8, 3.55 ERA, 167 1/3 ip, 145 K, , 23 BB, .268 BAAStuff -
Kawakami uses a fastball in the 88-91 mph range and plus command to set up an average slurve and slightly above average split-finger.He has a rep for being a smart pitcher and typically gets more ground balls than par for a Japanese hurler, which makes him attractive to clubs in the US that are seeking backend starters to avoid the long ball in small ballparks - such as Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Houston.Kawakami reminds many of Aaron Sele as his curve ball is his best pitch and he’s never blown anyone away with his fastball. He relies more on location and guile than he used to and should help someone in the states.

And if a pitching guru in MLB can find a way to properly balance his delivery out, he may jump back into the 91-94 mph range where he sat as a 27-year-old All-Star.

The Scoop:
It’s tough to guage what kind of money Kawakami would command should he decide to pursue a career in the states, but he’s just as good, if not better, than half of the free agent starters in the US this winter, so…

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Kazumi Saitoh, RHP - Fukuoka Softbank Hawks
Ht/Wt: 6-2/195
Age: 30
2007: 6-3, 2.74 ERA, 72 1/3 ip, 71 K, 25 BB, .245 BAAStuff -

Fastball:
Saitoh, when fully healthy, employs a fastball in the 90-93 mph range, and can dial it up to the mid-90s when necessary. His command is above average and his heater explodes into the strike zone, and with his deceptive delivery, will induce a lot of strikeouts when he properly locates an elevated fastball.

Slider:
In Japan, Saitoh’s curve and screwball-like change are probably his best two pitches, but in the states, his slider will likely surpass his curve as the most effective breaking ball.

Sitting in the 85-87 mph range with late break and average depth, Saitoh should be effective versus right-handers sitting on the four-seamer.

His slider is a tick above average but plays up when he throwing his other offspeed pitches for strikes.

Curve ball:
Using a classic overhand curve from a 5/8 arm slot, Saitoh’s 75-77 mph curve ball is a solid change-of-pace offering that keeps both lefties and righties off balance when he’s consistent with his arm actions.

He may have to limit the number of curve balls he throws a little bit, or at least scheme its use more, as the offensive machines in the AL especially can make the adjustments to such a pitch in mid-air.

It will remain a weapon for him, however.

Change:
This pitch can classified as a changeup, a split-finger, a forkball or a screwball even, as it’s depth and fade away from left-handed batters grades this offering a plus.

Usually hitting the 80-82 mph range, it’s a perfect compliment to a fastball-slider combination.

The Scoop:
Saitoh has a year left on his contract with the Hawks and will have to be posted if he wishes to come to MLB this winter.

If he does, the Mariners will certainly have interest, but there is concern about Saitoh’s health, as he made just 12 starts and has a lot of “dropped for re-adjustment” tags on his transactions list, which is another way of saying he couldn’t stay off the disabled list in 2007.

I have heard conflicting reports on what the injuries were, varying from shoulder to elbow to back to both shoulder and back, but at 30 years of age and with the right medical homework, he’s the best possibility for teams in the states to add a quality starting pitcher to their rotation this offseason.

“I think a healthy Saitoh is a legit No. 3,” said an American League scout of Saitoh. “His double-pause delivery is more than just deceptive, it’s disruptive, and while he will need to work on his effectiveness with runners on base, he’s a fine arm, and all of that will be in my report.”

Early rumors have posting fees bettering the $25 million that the Yankees handed Kei Igawa a year ago, but his health concerns could possibly curb those numbers. Don’t count on it, but that is certainly possible.

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