It was a banner 2007 season for the Seattle Mariners organization where… okay, it wasn’t “banner” by any means, but it was a very interesting season overall and a solid campaign for most of the top prospects in the farm system.
From the bust-out years by both Adam Jones and Wladimir Balentien to the strong rebounds by Matt Tuiasosopo and Jeff Clement. We learned a lot in 2007, too, including how good the club’s International Scouting Director Bob Engle is - okay, again, we knew this, but it’s worth mentioning as many chances as we get.
We learned that Clement can catch, Wlad does have strike zone judgment and that Jones is a good center fielder. We also found out that the attrition rate of pitchers in minor league baseball has not improved in anyone’s favor but the doctors who bill for the surgeries performed on dozens of arms each year.
But the Minor League Baseball season is essentially over now, at least for all six affiliates in the Mariners organization, which brings us to the awards and the M’s All-Prospect Team for 2007.
Prospect of the Year - Adam Jones, CF
Jones began the year as the top prospect in the organization, and did nothing to knock himself down from that mantle, hitting .314/.382/.586 with 25 homers in 101 games with Triple-A Tacoma. Time and time again, PCL pitchers, even the best of them, tried to get their fastbals in on Jones, and if they missed by an inch, Jones hit it a mile.
The 22-year-old showed flashes of plus power, which most believe he’ll max out into the 25-30range as a big leaguers, and improved his strike zone judgment and overall discipline at the plate. With vast progress in the area of consistency and his defensive prowess in center field, Jones became one of the 10 best prospects in the game before getting the call to the show in August - two month too late, for the Mariners sake.
He runs the bases well, though still learning to steal bases, but Jones is a legit five or six-hole hitter with a center field glove and a right fielder’s throwing arm. And his performance proved his skills to be real.
Jones is an easy pick for Mariners Prospect of the Year.
Runners up: Wladimir Balentien, Jeff Clement, Michael Saunders
Pitching Prospect of the Year - Chris Tillman, RHP
We all remember Tillman’s first few weeks in High Desert after just eight starts in CLass A Wisconsin, but the kid pitched his way out of that funk and was dynamite to end the year. In his last12 starts with the Mavericks, Tillman posted a 2.77 ERA and struck out 75 batters in 64 2/3 innings, including an impressive 13-K effort versus Rancho Cucamonga on August 29.
Tillman’s 90-94 mph fastball and plus curve ball were plenty for the 19-year-old to get outs in A ball, and it sure looks as if he’ll begin 2008 with Double-A West Tennessee, though to most that’s a little too aggressive. The right-hander’s change up still needs work, but the Mariners trust in the pitch and install that systematic belief into their pitchers.
Tillman does something already that other teenage pitching prospects do not - pitch inside, and pitch inside aggressively. It was the difference between his first six or eight starts with High Desert and his last 12.
Let’s see, a low-to-mid-90s fastball, an already well above average curve ball, a developing change, an aggressive style, not afraid to pitch inside regularly, a strong work ethic and a prototypical pitcher’s physique (6-5, 200)… Does that remind you of about 75 percent of the frontline starters in baseball?
Runners Up: Robert Rohrbaugh, Juan Ramirez, Edward Paredes
Comeback Prospect of the Year - Jeff Clement, C
After hitting .257/.321/.347 in 67 games with Triple-A Tacoma last season - overly aggressive promoting by the Mariners at work there - Clement rebounded in a big way, and showed why he was worthy of such a high draft spot two years ago.
The 24-year-old batted .275/.370/.497 with 20 homers and 35 doubles, proving his power to be real. But the biggest leap forward by the USC product and Iowa native was behind the plate where Clement made significant strides in all areas.
Clement shed a few pounds, got into the best shape of his life, was ALWAYS the first to the ballpark on gamedays to put in the extra work, and it’s paid huge dividends at this point.
A year ago, there was questions abound as to whether he’d ever catch in the big leagues. Today, it would surprise most if he doesn’t at least get a good shot to prove his doubters wrong. One team official that saw a lot of the Rainiers this season told Prospect Insider that the defensive gap between Clement and Rob Johnson is not near what it was last season, and that Clement showed a lot of toughness and determination in playing through injuries and the daily grind of being a backstop.
Matt Tuiasosopo received a lot of consideration for this award, but his overall status has not returned to what it was after his first half season in the system, whereas Clement’s is even higher than it was on draft day.
Runner Up: Tuiasosopo
Rookie Prospect of the Year - Carlos Triunfel, SS
I was e-mailed last week by some shmuck, [and yes, if you, the shmuck who sent that to me, is reading this, I'm talking to you and about you, you friggin' goon] asking me how I could see such potential in a kid who is probably 23 years old, not 17, and can’t hit for power?
Well, if Triunfel was 23, the shmuch would have a point. But even the doubters don’t believe he’s any older than 18, which is more than enough for me to trust his age enough to judge his talents on what is listed.
As for hitting for power — do you know of many 17-18 year olds that hit for power in full season ball, not named Griffey, Rodriguez or another hall-of-fame bound name? Yeah, me neither.
Triunfel’s ability to make contact regularly, make mid-game adjustments and show improvement as he’s challenged by much more advanced and experienced competition make him a grade-A prospect by itself.
Couple that with his above-average athletic ability and projected physical prowess, not to mention the fact that he’s already as gifted physically as any prospect in the organization, and what you have is a kid that has enough natural ability to play everyday in the big leagues - TODAY.
His power will come as he develops consistencies in a better, revamped swing, and potentially a reworked stance as well. But he’s already capable of going the other way and shows the ability to prolong at-bats with a good eye and quick bat.
With Jones a big leaguer, Triunfel takes over the top spot in the organization, though he may have done so anyway, and is the clear choice for best rookie prospect.
Best Performance by a Relief Prospect (AA/AAA) - Kameron Mickolio, RHP
If Mickolio was healthy, he’d probably be contributing to the big-league bullpen this month after adding a pitch and improving his overall command. Standing 6-9 at 260 pounds, Mickolio rushes his fastball to the plate in the 93-96 mph range with good movement, and tosses in a two-seam cutter that dives in on righties and away from left-handers.
He’ll battle for a role in the M’s pen next spring, provided he’s healthy, after flashing dominance at two stops in the minors this season. The right-hander fanned 55 in 53 2/3 innings split between AA and AAA, allowing a .219 opponents average.
(SS/A) - Nick Hill, LHP
Even though Hill should have been pitching in High Desert at age , allowing just two earned runs in 35 innings and striking out 45 in 35 innings… and walking just nine… and allowing just 27 hits - no homers… and… well, you get the point.
Being a southpaw, Hill has a shot to move pretty quickly through the system, though it’s probable the club will return him to the rotation in Wisconsin to start 2008.
Breakthrough Prospect of the Year (AA/AAA) - Wladimir Balentien, OF
Balentien could have easily been the most improved prospect as well, but his skills aren’t any different as he really only improved in one area: discipline.
His game is much more disciplined now than anytime in his career and while he still needs a lot of refining in his approach to the game as well as his philosophies at the plate, Balentien turned himself into one of the most talked about offensive players in minor league baseball in 2007.
He still has holes in swing - the breaking ball is still a problem, but he chases it far less than he ever has in the past and is even further a long in that department than is Jones.
(SS/A) - Michael Saunders, OF
Saunders was finally able to turn all of his natural ability into performance this season, albeit with the advantage of hitting in the Cal League. He did have a strong showing in his very short stay in the Southern League and scouts believe his approach and intelligence at the plate will get him to the big leagues.
He still needs to shorten his swing quite a bit and cut down on the swings-and-misses, but he draws walks, runs the bases very well and has an more than adequate throwing arm to go with good range and instincts in the outfield. He’s a corner guy from here on out, however, not the center fielder he portrayed in 2007.
Saunders will probably return to Double-A West Tennessee in ‘08, joining the likes of Tillman and Triunfel on the most interesting roster in the system to start next season. Repeated performances will quickly send Saunders to Tacoma.
Defensive Prospect of the Year - Jones
Jones simply polished off a lot of the natural skills he already had, and proved the M’s correct in moving him off shortstop and into the outfield.
Dozens of times you could see Jones cut off a screamer in the gap, and whether he caught the ball on the fly or not, he’d spin and throw a seed into second base to either prevent an existing runner from advancing, or stop the hitter from getting the extra base.
Jones runs average to above-average routes, gets great jumps and the only errors he makes are from his anxiety to snap off a laser throw or with over-aggressiveness.
In time, he’ll shore up those issues as well, and ultimately become a plus defender in center field. Watch for him to push Ichiro back to right field within the next three years, depending on the 25-man roster and the overall production of the club’s third outfielder.
Runners Up: Johnson, Kuo-hui Lo, Saunders
Most Improved Offensive Prospect of the Year - Tuiasosopo
While Clement had the better year, most of his problems in ‘06 stemmed from injury and ridiculous expectations/promotion rates, rather than skills. Tuiasosopo improved his actual offensive skills moreso than did Clement, showing great patience and significant progress in strike zone judgment.
When you hit .185 with a .218 slugging percentage and a .254 on-base mark, it’s not hard to improve upon such numbers. But Tuiasosopo was drastically better in 2007, showing glimpses of the total package - patience, contact and power - though the power numbers still leave quite a bit to be desired.
In the last 13 games he did hit three long balls to bring his extra-base hits total to 41 for the year, but in order to play regularly at the next level, the 21-year-old will need to a repeated effort - and then some - in Triple-A Tacoma in 2008.
But for ‘07, no Mariners prospect showed as much improvement with the bat as their 2004 third-round choice.
Runners Up: Clement, Saunders
Most Improved Defensive Prospect of the Year - Clement
Clement has gone from “surefire 1B/DH or part-time player” to a prospect that has a better than average chance to not only play regularly in the show, but to catch, at least the majority of the time.
He’s still a year away, but if he’s able to replicate his improvements from the past 12-16 months, he’ll be big-league ready by August.
1B - Carlos Peguero
By default only… LaHair, Limonta and Hubbard aren’t big leaguers, and while Peguero probably isn’t one either, there’s a miniscule chance he makes enough contact to become useful. LaHair is probably a better bet here, but he’s been terrible in AAA, save for a 3-week stint in 2006, and I refuse to recognize him as a prospect anymore.
The way I see it, at least Peguero hasn’t PROVEN he can’t hit past AA ball. He probably will prove that soon, but…
2B - Anthony Phillips
Another default choice, as Valbuena and Dominguez are better hitters, but Phillips has more time to develop more strength and become something neither Valbuena nor Dominguez have the skills to. Phillips is patient, understands how to hit and when he matures physically he could show gap power in the mold of Dustin Pedroia.
The South African native is just 17, so there is time for him to grow, both vertically a bit, from his current 5-9, and filling out a stronger more durable frame. He’s 155-160 now. In two years or so, he’ll need to be 180.
Jesus Guzman had a huge year, but he’s 23, has never hit for power out of the Cal League and is an average defensive second baseman - at best.
3B - Matt Tuiasosopo
While Tui belongs in the outfield, he had a solid year, especially considering his 2006 campaign, and the runner-up, Alex Liddi, really struggled in the Midwest League. Liddi may still prove to the better prospect, but this season was Tui’s.
SS - Carlos Triunfel
Duh.
C - Jeff Clement
The combo if his defensive improvements and offensive season make this one easy, though Adam Moore and Travis Scott surprised in High Desert.
DH - Wladimir Balentien
An easy decision here, though the only reason he’s the DH is because the three outfielders are better defenders than Wlad, not because Wlad can’t play a corner spot adequately. He can, and will.
LF - Greg Halman
Was terrible in the Midwest League, really good in Everett, slugging nearly .600 with 16 homers before leaving the team to join Team Netherlands. Halman can defend in center, but his ability to make consistent contact will determine his future.
CF - Adam Jones
Enough has been said about Jones.
RF - Michael Saunders
Next year is a make-or-break year for his prospect status.
SP - Chris Tillman
On fast track.
SP - Juan Ramirez
Showed 92-95 mph fastball as teenager in NWL. Might skip A ball.
RP - Kameron Mickolio
A healthy Mark Lowe, Mickolio and Austin Bibens-Dirkx will give the M’s plenty of options in the pen over the next two years. Say goodbye to Reitsma, Parrish, Rhodes, and all the other expensive goons.
Photo Credits:
Carlos Triunfel, Chris Tillman by Mike Andruski
Waldimir Balentien by Paul Marsh at paulmphotography.com
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I saw Jeff clement for the first time and his swing is a power stroke. Kinda looks like Jeff Genikins of the Brewers.
“Say goodbye to Reitsma, Parrish, Rhodes, and all the other expensive goons.”
Only if someone put restraints on Bavasi and keeps him from continually dumpster-diving on the waiver-wire for that “veteran presence” in the bullpen.
Basically, Bavasi won’t have a choice, because he’s going to need every last hundred thousand dollars to do what he needs to do this winter… the M’s aren’t raising payroll for him.
Rhodes, and veterans of the like, always cost a million bucks. Parrish just sucks, Bavasi won’t make that mistake during the offseason, and Reitsma won’t be healthy anyways.
Oh, and, the “veteran” thing is a McLaren thing… not Bavasi’s.
But when your manager comes to you and asks for something in the heat of a pennant race, typically you do what you can.
Good stuff Jason. Its these things that gets me excited about the future of this team. Our farm system is a far cry from what it used to be, isnt it? I like it!
Jason, whats the future of McLaren look like?? Is he gone come October.. I certainly hope so..
And what do u see happening with the Johjima/Clement situation?? You think we just let Joh go after this season and move Clement into the catching position?
Why would they let Johjima go?? That wouldnt make sense at all.
I’m pretty sure the Mariners are going to want to make sure Clement is an everyday catcher before they “let Johjima go.”
I expect them to bring Burke back, or someone like that, in 2008, and work Clement in later in the year to see where he’s at defensively. This will help them determine what direction they need to go with Johjima.
I envision a scenario in 2009 where Clement and Johjima, after being retained, split the catching duties and sometimes the DH gig.
But either way, by the end of 2008, the M’s will have a good idea what’s going on.
re:McLaren
Well, he’s terrible, so the right thing to do would be to tell him they are going to go after someone else with a different philosophy and that if he wants to leave, he’s free to leave.
I have heard the rumors that Lincoln, Chuck and Bavasi all were leaning toward going in a different direction, and that they felt that way BEFORE the M’s went on their major losing streak.
Thank god.. he served his purpose to get Ichiro extended.. but he may be the most inept manager to come through Seattle in my lifetime
There not raising payrole?Hoe hi does Bumbling need it to get a team in the playoffs?Thats a legit question i believe they are in the top 5 are 6 payroles in the game and he cant lead us to the wild card.Its time for change i will even back Antonetti if you can believe that.No more excuses needed he has been given 112 million dollar payrole and all we here is excuses about this and that.Maybe all the money he has spent on free agents he has just kept picking the wrong ones have we ever thought of that.We have heard he had bad players and bad farm when he got here ML. team yes farm no.But when you get all this money for free agents and you keep picking guys who are mediocre maybe its on Bumbling Bill and his crew?
I would like to see some bullpen help aquired.. and a back end starter.. also rid ourselves of Sexson.. Resign Guillen.. Move a Broussard out..
If we do that, i think the payroll stays pretty much where it is…
Move Morrow to the rotation.. Sign Silva or someone who will toss a 4.50 ERA..
Get a couple quality relievers..
I really think the biggest offseason move would be a highly regarded and competent manager..
One that will be creative and get AJ into LF on a daily basis.. while moving Ibanez and Vidro between 1B/DH… Ideally Wlad would factor in, but i think it’s a lost cause with this organization and Balentein.. he’s not making the 25 man out of ST (sadly)
Let me also add that these moves aren’t difficult to make.. therefore Bavasi should be able to accomplish that stuff.. dont get cute with your terrible trades Bill unless you got a Oswalt, Bedard, or Santana type coming back..
Just upgrade the rotation some, shore up the pen, and get rid of Sexson..everything else seems pretty much set given the weak FA class, and the fact that most of our roster is under contract
Spending money on relievers makes little sense.
Putz, Sherrill, O’Flaherty, Green, Rowland-Smith, Mickolio, Lowe, Huber… If they can’t find six or seven out of that group, they are dumber than we think they are.
Wasting the kind of money it’s taking these days to get a worthy short reliever would make so little sense.
The pen doesn’t need help, and shouldn’t get any until and unless the offense and rotation are set. If there are funds/resources left over, then see what’s there, I guess.
We aren’t in bad shape for the offseason. Just some minor moves should help this team dramatically. While I would love to have them land a 1 or 2 guy for the rotation, it doesn’t look like there is one out there. But I agree with dumping Sexson. Plus I would love for them to trade for Griffey and letting Guillen walk. That would be great in my opinion.
Jason, how do you think Raul would do at 1B? Thats if they decide to go that way? Do you think with work he could be a competant 1B?
Defensively, Raul would do fine at first. He probably wouldn’t be GOOD, but he’s not going to butcher balls on a regular basis.
But he doesn’t have a lot of time there, especially lately, and he’s not used to fielding ground balls and making throws to second on double plays.
I believe the best way for the M’s to get better in 2008 is to make Vidro the bat off the bench/occasional starter at 1B or DH, make Raul the DH, primarily versus righties (Vidro can DH versus lefties some), ship Richie out for nothing just to clear the spot, even if it takes sending some cash out with him, start Jones in left everyday, and do what you can to find a 1B or RF.
If it appears another proven outfield bat is unavailable or unreasonable early on in the winter, ya gotta keep Guillen aboard - if he’s still willing and available.
1B is the spot that has to be upgraded offensively, with at least a lefty stick with a respectable OPS.
Mike Jacobs, Adam LaRoche… someone that doesn’t cost 10-15 million or a king’s ransom in trade,and if he’s not a super slugger, he’s got to be a decent defender and a lefty bat.
Jason I agree that the bullpen would ideally be filled with our system guys..
I’m just nervous that Mickolio, Lowe, Huber and Biben’s Dirx aren’t gonna be healthy enough to contribute out of the gate..
Sean Green has been terrible of late.. And do you see a real late inning shutdown guy in the presently assembled pen?? We got long stretches of dominance in that role from Morrow.. he’s heading to the rotation, and I dont see the guy who can fit the role of the Soriano or Morrow.. a guy who can miss bats in the setup role..
Where is that guy for next year?? Do you believe Sean Green is a lock for the setup man role?? He’s shown stretches, but he was a nothing prospect heading into this year.. so who knows who the real Sean Green is.. the guy who dominated for 2-3 months this year.. or the guy who couldnt stick on the roster in the past, and who is seeing his ERA jump every outing of late..
Even without any of those four…
Putz, Sherrill, RRS, EO and Green are a good FIRST FIVE. The last two are sixth and seventh guys.
You don’t need a “shutdown” guy the way you are presenting it. And there’s really no reason to believe that Lowe won’t be ready.
The bigger point here is that the market for these kinds of relievers is ridiculous. You’re either paying them 4 mil or more per year for 3-4 years, or you are sending Balentien or Clement out for a friggin’ 60-inning reliever.
Grow your own and if you get to July and the team is in strong contention making it a little more worth giving something of value up for a decent setup man (decent, not great, because there’s basically no chance the club gets their hands on a really good setup guy via trade), then take a look at the market at the deadline.
And look at the quality of the arms in the system that you are doubting. Lowe is a premium arm, and while the injury concerns are legit with he and Mickolio, spending 16-20 mil on a decent reliever because of those doubts is irresponsible.
It’s not like Raffy Soriano is available, or anyone of that quality. So the M’s would be getting a healthy Chris Reitsma… or at best, the 2005 and 2007 versions of Justin Speier… or Armando Benitez.. yeah, for 4 mil per.
It’s just not worth it.
Jason,
Why do you consider next year “make or break” for Saunders? I think he’s only 20 years old (playing in AA at end of year)…not 21 until November 11. He seems on a pretty fast track at that age/level???
It’s make or break, because he’ll either prove he can really hit, or that he can’t. His year wasn’t nearly as impressive as the numbers suggest, since High Desert is a bandbox and the Cal League is a joke.
I noticed you said that Brian Lahair is not a prospect anymore. What are the chances that he is removed from the 40 man and ends up with another organization? It would be nice to see someone else at 1b in Tacoma next year.
Ain’t gonna happen that next year’s bullpen is filled out with all kids from the system, just to save money. It’s imposing your beliefs on a team that doesn’t follow your line of thinking.
Veteran arms have their purpose, and you need a couple. Putz and Sherrill would be those guys and I can’t see any GM, not in a rebuilding mode, who doesn’t have a couple REAL veterans in the pen to keep the pressure off the kids, UNTIL they assume rolls….like Putz did from Guardado.
I could see Rhodes and Reitsma returning, if their arms are sound. The rest of those names……no loss.
But Bryan Lehair was MarinersRevolutions to prospect going into the year…
Enough with the jokes, two questions:
What are the chances the Mariners acquire Adam Laroche who Pittsburg might view as a disappointment? What would the cost be to get him?
Except, that wasn’t what happened. That’s what a front office may tell itself, but that wasn’t what happened in reality—Guardado was run out there until he actually got injured. It’s a good question if Putz would have taken another year or so to take over if Guardado hadn’t got hurt.
You gotta love how we keep it coming with the legit power arm relief prospects though. we basically built our entire bullpen from the farm the last two or three years. and now position spects and starters are on the way, very exciting. Things are looking up and Engle is the man. It will be interesting to see what they do in looking for a manager and some real big league starters this offseason. Sexson is gone (what a relief, I do not desire to watch this man take another at bat for us). I agree BIG TIME with Jason that to sink 3 or 4 mil into a veteran bullpen guy is idiotic. We’ve got PLENTY here in the organization. But yet Edtrak is right, and the Mariners will still probably get at least one guy. Thats alright. Jason, how far behind Tillman is Tony Butler at this point, given his injury. Sounded like he came back real strong. Ive adopted him as my personal favorite prospect and I want to see him follow right behind Tillman into the show in a couple years. Is he on that kind of pace?
Guardado’s injury gave him opportunity….nothing more. Guardado COULD have remained the closer, after returning (be it breifly before he injured it again in Cincy), however to Hargrove’s (Bavasi’s?) credit, they stayed with Putz once he established he was ready for the role.
Im gonna start breaking up my paragraphs…easier on the eyes.
Here is what the M’s need to do.
- Make Jones everyday LF.
- Don’t resign Guillen.
- Put Ben Broussard in RF.
- Put Vidro at first.
- DH Ibanez.
- Let Wlad (10th bat) spell the three lefties splitting time at DH and RF when a lefty is on the mound.
- Go internal for the 4th and 5th slots, the free agents are too expensive and not good enough. Let Campillo, Fierebend, Rowland Smith, and Morrow fight it out for the the spots, the competition should raise their game.
- Trade Sexson and Lopez and eat half to get it done for pitching.
- Go internal for the bullpen.
- Last but not least sign A-Rod 7 years 27 per to play short and move Yubet to second.
You can afford A-Rod with the 9 million Guillen would get + 8 million Weaver would get + 10 million savings from trading Sexson & Lopez and the 5 million Ramirez would get. Total of 32 million.
lol I like how you put things, talkbaseball
everything makes sense. Execpt the fact that Yuni’s arm is wasted at 2nd. But there really isnt another way to get all those guys in there..
#28
Get on the horn and get that done.
…I’ll wait right here.
edtrak,
Bavasi wouldn’t have made the Reitsma and Rhodes moves if Grover wouldn’t have preferred vets.
He wouldn’t likely have gone after Parrish or White, had McLaren not asked for them.
This isn’t some clear-cut front office issue. It’s the GM backing his skipper. Get smarter manager and the team gets better.
What’s right and what the team may or may not do aren’t usually the same… but to say they will inevitably get some veteran to come in ala Rhodes-Reitsma is out of line. Because they tried that, TWICE, it didn’t work and now, partially as a result of the vets not working out for whatever reason, the kids have shown they can pitch.
The key is going to be the health of Lowe and Mickolio in about 45 days.
I don’t think the whole ‘veteran’ thing is all on the managers, at all. When Bavasi was in Tacoma answering the Adam Jones questions, he was the one who was said we wouldn’t see AJ and Wlad in the same outfield, 2 rookies. So I think it’s just as much Bavasi as it is Hargrove/McLaren. It may be focused on different veterans, but it’s the same type of mentality.
Re. #28
I like your plan. The only thing I might not agree with is that Arod should go to SS while Uni is a 2nd. Arod is a lot bigger, and I would think has lost some range since he was a gold glover. Why not put him at second where he won’t be a defensive liability.
Name me a single manager in baseball who would rather have a raw rookie, instead of a veteran guy, if they are available? Any who manage winning clubs? You make it sound like the M’s are the only team who manage that way.
And, as for what Hargrove and McLaren want….guess what, they aren’t in charge. So, if they can’t convince Bavasi of a need…..then it ain’t gonna happen. So, it’s not like they get everything they want. These things don’t happen in a vacuum.
And, just because it didn’t work out this year, doesn’t require them to change strategy. If anything, the M’s have been burned MANY times by that very approach. It’s not a year to year thing…..it’s a long term strategy.
By smarter, you mean someone who thinks as you do? As in, we’d be better off with McLaren than Hargrove? I’m not trying to rub your nose in anything, just trying to point out that what we preceive as factual, doesn’t necessarily turn out that way.
And, my point remains the same. Just because you think they didn’t follow through with a strategy correctly, doesn’t mean they see it as failed. Unless you have some inside information we don’t, there is no reason to think they won’t attempt to bring in a veteran arm, if they can.
The key isn’t “that” they brought in a veteran arm…..but rather, “who” they brought in. Better choices, yes.
And you are correct, a lot depends on the health of Lowe and Mickolio. If both are healthy, they should have a spot.
And yes, it will depend on who manages the team. They will have input. But, Bavasi will override them, if he has to ….. it’s his job.
33-
AROD will not sign here to play 2nd….
#28, while I have no problem with much of what you say…….signing Guillen vs. A-Rod isn’t an interchangable concept. A-Rod’s going to get a huge payday, because everyone pays based on what you did in the last year of your contract. I can’t see him getting any less than $15-18 million over five years. Not a chance.
And, I don’t like Broussard in RF. I don’t like Broussard starting everyday. I think he’s good in the role he’s in, and think we’d see Richie like numbers, if he’s marched out there everyday. He’s a far better option as the #10 guy, than to sit Wlad when he still needs more AB’s to prove himself. He needs at least another half year at Tacoma, before I’ll be convinced he’s for real. Learn from Leone.
And, if you’re going to dump that kind of money, go after a legitimate starting pitcher who can anchor a #1 or #2 spot. Hitting isn’t the problem…..going deep into games and keeping the score close….is.
Edtrack -
I like what you said:
“The key isn’t “that” they brought in a veteran arm…..but rather, “who” they brought in.”
I agree.
Well, in any sane or healthy organization.
Applicable to the Ms organization? Hmm…well…
You said it edtrak, RAW.
RRS, EO, even Green and Morrow, came into 07 as raw rookies with virtially no experience. That’s not the case anymore.
RE: 32
Trust me, Hargrove begged Bavasi for veterans for two years. McLaren went to Bill directly and strongly suggested a veteran pen arm or two so he could go further with the starters and not be forced to go to kids down the stretch in a pennant race.
Not that just about EVERYONE prefers kids, because that’s insane.
But Bavasi’s philosophy with a STARTING LINEUP, i.e. the Wlad and Jones thing, doesn’t reflect his ideas of how to put together a bullpen. It’s vastly different. They basically had four rookies in the pen all THIS YEAR. And used them. A lot.
There’s just no justifiable reason to go after mediocre veterans, and spend money or trade pieces on them, when the young arms are just as good.
Unless you have a manager that basically insists. And that’s what has happened for three years now.
What’s great about this is, there aren’t many guys out there to go get. Lack of options may allow Bill to tell the manager, whoever it is, “we’re standing pat in the pen, because we have to.”
I can assure all of you that Bavasi didn’t go out and trade for Parrish and sign White and give them innings out of the big-league pen because he thought it was the best way to win games.
Why do you think McLaren went to White six times in such a short span, including high-leverage situations?
Because White was what Mac asked for. And you stick with yours.
Given the nature of relief work, isn’t that the place where rookies have the easiest chance to be successful? As they saw with Morrow, you can just rare back and throw and not have to learn as much about pitching in the bullpen…
YES. So says some of the most brilliant baseball people on the planet. It’s not for everyone, but it surely fits many.
It can be detrimental to development, as I believe it was with Morrow, but with guys like Joba Chamberlain and Chad Billingsley, it’ll help them in the long run.
Though it sure seems like Chamberlain’s stay in the pen will be very short-lived.
But look at Billingsley now versus his starts when he first came up, after some significant time in the pen.
It’s helped him. I really like the idea with some pitchers. But Morrow needed to throw 500 sliders and 300 splitters to further develop those pitches, and sharpen his overall control/command. The only way he could have done so was in a starting role, at least for the most part, and obviously in the minors.
FTR, I don’t think this season ruins Morrow or anything, and I don’t think it’s a fundamental setback. It’s a setback as far as his timetable goes, in my opinion.
It is not a Guillen for A-Rod. It is a Guillen, Weaver, Ramirez, and Sexson for A-rod and going young with the 4 and 5 spots. Now I know this will never happen, but given are stadium and the free agent class it would be feasible. Going from Guillen to Ben/Wlad saves you 10 million and gets you a lefty in the lineup. Going with Baek/Fier/Rowland smith saves you 12 million from Weaver and Ramirez. Then you trade Sexson eating have the salary saving you another 7 million. So this definitely would be feasible. Obviously Bavasi is not smart enough to get this done.
Just read an article on the M’s site about RRS maybe become a starter again. What are your thoughts about this? Where would you rate him among Feir, J Thomas, & Rohrbaugh?
I don’t like the idea as much as some do. I saw RRS as a starter, and like Lowe and so many others, he was never able to sustain his stuff through the lineup more than twice.
It’s always worth a shot I guess, but I think he’s a No. 5 at best and if that’s what they want in 2008, Feierabend can do that and with a bigger upside.
Great piece, Jason!
What are the M’s plans for Hill? Was he just pitching out of the bullpen to limit his innings? Will he start next year? What are your expectations? I’ve heard his stuff isn’t great, but you can’t argue with the results he’s put up so far (not just in Everett, but with Army, on the Cape and with Team USA), and I’ve read that he has great makeup. I don’t know how their stuff compares, but - best case - could Hill become a lefty Chris Mason?
I think Hill has to pitch in relief to be a big leaguer, but he could probably succeed as a starter through High A.
I’m not sure what the pans are for him, per se, but that’s probably his future. Start some games to get innings, then slide to the pen to get a shot at the show.
Wait a minute. Bavasi isn’t smart enough because he can’t get trades and FA signings done that you made up out of pure fiction?
Who’s going to pick up even a quarter of Sexson’s salary? Yet, seem to think someone is willing to pick up half of Sexson’s contract? Just who would that be?
Secondly, you’re willing to dump $27 million a year on A-Fraud, and see starting a low cost rookie for money savings?
What you fail to mention is that the M’s are only on the hook for those guys, for one more year. So, wouldn’t you rather have that money available for….say…..Johan Santana, the following year?
I’d rather resign Guillen, trade Jones and whoever you had to to Minnesota for Santana, than sign A-Fraud.
You approach it like buying a car…..your monthly payments are only $250 a month……for ten years. That isn’t necessarily a bargin.
Enough with the A-Fraud garbage. It wasn’t funny when he left SEVEN YEARS AGO, and its not funny now. How is he a fraud?? He is probably the best baseball player of this era. So what, he took an unheard of 252 million dollar contract. If he would have past up that money for the M’s 100 million, he would have been an idiot. I don’t blame him for taking that money, and he is still he favorite player in baseball. But seriously though, its been 7 years, get over it.
You want to trade Jones, and our entire farm system, because that is what it would take, to get Santana?? No way, Santana is the best, but he only effects 1 out of every 5 games, no way Im trading the farm system for 1 pitcher, thats just not smart.
Eh, I’d deal Jones, Clement, Wlad and Tillman for Santana if he wasn’t a free agent after 08. The dude would immediately make the Mariners a 95+ -win club, provided the offense and defense don’t get WORSE.
Really!? I know that they are not proven, and you are dealing for the best, but can’t that put your franchise back several years?? Wow, Im kind of shocked. Ok, I just read that you wouldn’t because he is a FA in a year. Thats the reason why I would never do it, you trade your franchise away for a 1 year rental.
If Santana was 34 or something, sure. But he’s the best pitcher in baseball and only 28 years old.
Think about it. Santana and Felix with Putz in the pen.
Yer offense doesn’t even have to be but average to compete and if you can get to the top 5 in the AL in scoring runs, you’ll probably win 100+ games.
Ya I guess so, but only if he was locked up for multi-years. Would Minny do this?? Sanatana has said he does not want to come back.
Minnesota, if and when they trade Johan, is certainly going to want young, cheap players in return, but not all minor leaguers.
They’re going to want some proven talent. A few zero-to-three types and a prospect or two.
Jason do you think Clements bat will end up playing well in Safeco Field? I dont know the spreads or anything but it seems like he tries to elevate the ball and isnt really a line drive hitter. I want to see more of him, but I wouldnt really mind packaging him in the off season.
I hope they dont give up on Lopez so easily though. Im not sure a lot of people out there could lose a brother like that and go out and put together a real nice season.
Also I want to ask again, Jason how far behind Tillman is Tony Butler? where does he start next year?
Clement’s approach fits Safeco, as he can go the other way enough, but has power to right and right-center where Safeco favors lefties over righties.
Lopez didn’t lose a brother in ‘06 and did the same thing. Fast start, awful after June 2.
Butler is a year behind in development due to injuries, but as far as stuff goes, he’s not that far behind. A shade.
Oh, I see, you can call Bavasi and idiot, but if I call A-Fraud who he is, I have a problem?
He’s a fraud, not because he took the money…but, because he’s a human contradiction. He tries to pass himself off as a regular guy, but is so far from it, that he wouldn’t recognize honesty if it bumped into him on the subway.
I have no problem with guys who have egos….as long as they admit it and don’t pretend to be who they aren’t.
I can handle Clemens, because he’s an open arsehole who doesn’t pretend to be any different.
And no, I’ll never forgive A-Fraud for two reasons:
A. He said it wasn’t about the money, and that he’d give the M’s equal opportunity to sign him….when in reality, it was simply a PR move for his own self promotion.
B. He and Boras took credit for the M’s success, when in fact, A-Fraud was never a leader. He dissed Edgar, Jay, etc. by making those comments…..and I won’t forgive him and Boras for that…..not in a thousand years.
You want to have an A-Fraud lovefest, be my guest. But if winning is tied to him, I’d rather lose.
Edtrak, you couldn’t be more wrong.
I have a recording of an internview with AROD in November of 2000 where he says very clearly that money did matter, but that he wanted to go to a place where believed they could win and win long term. He wanted a committed owner and multiple opportunities to play in the postseason.
He didn’t come out and tell anyone it wasn’t about money. It just seems that way because of the way negotiations always go, and because Boras is Boras.
But you are so much more ignorant on the situation than you even know, it seems.
First off, Seattle offered a 3-year deal. Why in the world would ANY name free agent take a 3-year contract when six and eight year deals were surely out there. You’re 25, want to go to one place to play for a long time.
Three years doesn’t do that. And Boras made it very clear that it was going to take a long, long term contract.
Lincoln is the fraud here. He’s lied to the fans of this city for a decade and then some, and with the AROD situation, he came out and said they offered 5 years. No, Howie, you offered three guaranteed years with a mutual option for two more.
That’s not a five year committment.
But calling Alex a fraud as if he’s a bad person or any worse than the average athlete is irresponsible. Yes, irresponsible of you Edtrak. You’re posting on a site that two or three other people read and while they may not know of the truth with Rodriguez’s situation, I do, and you come off as a total ignorant ass to me.
And tell me when Alex himself took credit for the Mariners success? Did you make that one up or are you just plagiarize that ridiculous comment from some other idiot who is blinded by the beliefs of the masses and the poor media circles that nearly always fog up the truth.
AROD is no saint, but to call him a fraud for the reason you stated above is really, really ignorant and shortsighted.
If he would have stayed in Seattle for 11 and 253, you wouldn’t have bitched a single bit.
Be scorned somewhere else.
And if you’d rather lose than win with Alex, I’m sorry to say you just aren’t the kind of fan I would ever associate myself with.
Michael Vick is one story. AROD is another.
Geez, man.
What makes everyone so sure that AROD will opt out of his contract? Yeah, we all know he could get more money, but he’s playing for a team that has a great history of winning and he does want to be on a winning team.
I think he simply gets an extension from the Yankees. It makes the most sense for all involved.
And your calling Hargrove, Bavasi, etc. morons and idiots is a responsible act, where as I’m ignorant, is different how? If I call Alex a fraud, because I think he was doing and saying those things that MADE him sound down to earth and honest, I’m misinformed?
And please, don’t recite me the numbers and figures…..I know what they were. It has NOTHING to do with the contract offer. It has to do with the statements he made publically, that made him sound willing to work out a deal. So, you’re telling me that Alex didn’t know they type of ownership group that was here in Seattle? And, that he ever considered them commited to the kind of commitment to winning, that he expected? If so, then why intimate that it’s negotiable? PR….and that’s all. IMO, he screwed Seattle, because he wasn’t honest enough with them at the deadline, so they could at least weight the worth of trading him or keeping him for the playoff run.
Moreso, his desire to SEEM humble, endeared him to fans like me, who thought that perhaps he and Boras were willing to make an effort to stay in Seattle. When in fact, I have little doubt he KNEW he was going to leave, money or not.
Alex has always been good at sounding out the words in public, while mumbling something different under his breath. Don’t believe me? Go reread some of the comments his shrink said he made, early in his career….about his REAL inner-self.
Did Lincoln screw up? Absolutely. But, are you telling me a 7 year $20-25 million a year contract would have made a single bit of difference? Are you that informed?
And DO NOT preach to me about being a real fan. Just WHO here has made statements about how they’d rather lose, if it meant losing Hargrove, Bavasi, etc? Because it’s for the better good? Isn’t that a matter of prospective? So, a real fan is someone who dislikes and loves those that you do?
And of course I’d have loved it if Alex had stayed, because it means that he did actually do what he said, rather than making sure his image was protected in the public eye.
I have no anger toward you, cujo, baseballman, or Alex. I love baseball and appreciate those who have that same passion, regardless of the side they’re on.
Not wanting Alex back is a personal choice. I don’t like him as a person. That doesn’t make me any more ignorant than those who STILL wanted Bavasi fired even when they were 20 games over .500. I didn’t see you fighting with them about it. To your credit, you have tried to point out that Bavasi should get credit for the deals that have worked out, if the ones that failed are used as evidence of his ineptness.
It’s not really worth discussing, because Alex will never come back to Seattle. So, it’s a mute point.
I agree, I don’t think Alex leaves NY, especially after this season. He’ll probably get a rewritten deal, rather than envoking the extension. But, it was never expected to be activated, it was simply a tool for Boras to make claims about having ARod sign the biggest baseball contract…..even if it is never actually paid out.
HAHA, edtrak you so just got owned by Jason. You clearly d