Rather than throwing out all of the prospect rankings, scouting reports and projections amidst one long line this winter, now is as good a time as any to check out the best of the best in the Seattle Mariners farm system.
Best Prospect: Carlos Triunfel
Runner-up: Jeff Clement
Best Defensive Outfielder: Greg Halman
Runner-up: Michael Saunders
Best Defensive Infielder: Jeffrey Dominguez
Runner-up: Alex Liddi
Best Defensive Catcher: Rob Johnson
Runner-up: Jair Fernandez
Best Outfield Arm: Saunders
Runner-up: Halman
Best Infield Arm: Triunfel
Runner-up: Liddi
Best RH Power Hitter: Wladimir Balentien
Runner-up: Halman
Best LH Power Hitter: Clement
Runner-up: Saunders
Best Hitter for Average/On-base: Balentien
Runner-up: Matt Mangini
Best Plate Discipline: Casey Craig
Runner-up: Saunders
Best/Fastest Baserunner: Saunders
Runner-up: Danny Carroll
Best Pitching Prospect: Chris Tillman
Runner-up: Phillippe Aumont
Best Fastball: Juan Ramirez
Runner-up: Tillman, Aumont, Tony Butler
Best Curve Ball: Tillman
Runner-up: Butler
Best Slider: Anthony Varvaro
Runner-up: Aumont
Best Changeup: Robert Rohrbaugh
Runner-up: Edward Paredes
Best Control/Command: Rohrbaugh
Runner-up: Doug Fister
Best Reliever: Kameron Mickolio
Runner-up: Austin Bibens-Dirkx
Best Athlete: Greg Halman
Runner-up: Michael Saunders
Mr. Helium: Triunfel
Runner-up: Jose Rivero
One to Watch: Cesar Del Rio
Runner-up: Jhrmivy DeJesus
Best Managing Prospect: Jim Horner, Wisconsin (A)
Runner-up: Scott Steinmann, High Desert (A+)
Is Saunder’s defense that good? I remember reading at BA that his defense is one thing that would prevent him from being nothing but a 4th outfielder in the Majors.
In Center, no. But toss him in a corner and his above-average speed and above-average arm combined with pretty good natural instincts and you have yourself Shawn Green with the glove.
At this point is Tillman a future #1 or future #2?
Also, could you give an brief, very brief, updated scouting report on him?
What pitches is he throwing as of now? Where’s his fastball velocity, etc.
Thanks.
great toolbox i cant wait to see witch ones make it to the show first
Jason, how’s about a sleeper list?
And do you really like Mangini’s OBP skills?
Chris,
Here ya go…
90-93 mph fastball, decent movement. he’s learning to become more aggressive with it and that sets up his curve ball, a plus pitch. He’ll touch 94-96 at times.
He’s a FB, CB, CH guy. It’s a circle change that is still developing and he’s made an honest effort to improve it. It’s below average right now, but the more he throws it the better it will be.
His curve is a big-time out pitch for him.
I think his ceiling is as a very solid No. 2 guy. No. 1s are rare. There might be 8-10 legit aces in baseball - Johan, Webb, Peavy, Beckett, CC, Halladay when healthy, Oswalt, Carpenter when healthy, Smoltz, Hamels when healthy…
But that doesn’t mean he doesn’t turn into a No. 1, or even fall to a No. 3 type.
Brandon Webb was seen as a No. 3 when he was in A+/AA ball. But his sinker developed a lot better than anyone could have thought. Tillman’s change could do the same for him.
Skills, yes, ek, he hasn’t done much with them yet.
As a prospect, I’m not a fan. I don’t think he’ll ever hit for enough power, from what scouts have told me. I haven’t seen him myself but for 10 ABs, though.
FYI: Halman’s back in the Netherlands, playing for Team Holland.
As is Liddi with Italy.
Jason, nice article. With your view of Varvaro, two questions. 1. how has Varvaro’s stuff come back since his surgery? and 2. do you think he will progress as a starter or move to the bullpen?
Nice scouting report. Thanks. I also believe people see “future #3,” get upset he’s not a future #1, and don’t realize just how valuable a solid #3 pitcher is. A true #3 would do wonders for the 2007 Seattle Mariners…
Is Aumont going to pitch for Team Canada?
I’m not sure, Conor, that’s a great question.
re: Varvaro
The Mariners like him as a starter right now. He came in as a guy with five or six pitches — fastball, curve, slider, change, splitter and was starting to use a two-seamer… They have him settled on fb, cb, ch right now… His command will be THE key.
His velo is there - low 90s.
Jason - I just heard Bill Krueger say something to the effect of, “A lot of Mariners pitcher have the curveball/slider disease. You can’t use both. PICK ONE!” What are your thoughts on that?
I don’t agree, but there’s something to it with some guys because they act like it’s a completely different look to the hitter… sometimes, they aren’t.
With Felix, he can throw 50 curves and 50 sliders and win games. The depth on both are very different. For some guys, they aren’t that different and they should use one primarily and use the other for show.
But if you have an above-average curve and slider… use them both.
Krueger is old school and doesn’t like complex baseball. He believes it’s a simple game with simple answers to simple questions.
It’s not, which is why he’s a terrible analyst.
Jason, I have a two part question for you. First is Robert Rohrbaugh, he has been extremely effective in the minors, is a left handed pitcher and is only 23. What do you see his future with the M’s? Do you think he makes the big leagues, and if so, how effective do you think he will be? What does he project as? A #3 guy maybe? Second is whats the word on Salcedo (sp?)? Has he signed anywere yet, and is thier a deadline to sign these guys?
Great work on the toolbox. It’s reaaly exciting to see the farm system gaining some strength, and making some quality ball players. It will be great to watch and see which ones some day do end up in an M’s uni. thanks Jason.
I think Rohrbaugh is a No. 5 type guy, maybe a No 4. He throws a lot of strikes but with average stuff. He doesn’t miss enough bats or get enough ground balls to have sustained frontline success.
Salcedo has not signed, as of Friday night. Boras is holding out for 4+ mil still, and teams - so far - are unwilling to give in.
Who was better at this stage of there career Rohrbaugh are Livingston?They seem like the same guys to me is that right our am i off?
Do you think Salcedo is worth 4+ mil? I think that they should offer whatever it takes. An extra couple million to get a guy who could develop into a star? Yeah, I’d do it.
Jason, you have Balentein as the best hitter for average/onbase, and the best RH power, but not the second best spect after Triunfel. Is Clements power that much better, or are you putting more emphasis on his handedness and defensive position?
Who’s Jose Rivero and Cesar Del Rio. I haven’t heard of those guys for some reason. If someone could fill me in, that would be great!
Hey Church, any chance Nick Green could turn out to be a Dan Uggla or Brandon Phillips type. Good power and solid average with high K’s? I have not given up on Lopez for the future, but I have for the remainder of this season.
Cujo — I think Livingston had a disadvantage being a Prep kid… if ya go by age, Bobby was better. Much better curve ball, similar command, similar change.
Clement’s position plays a big role in his prospect status, Pat. If Jeff was a 1B, Wlad’s far and away the better prospect. But a lefty-hitting catcher with 270/350/480 offense? That’s value.
Slack,
Rivero is an OF… Del Rio a catcher. Both teens in the Latin leagues, both schedule to play in Everett in ‘08… both have a chance to move quickly if they adapt.
talk,
No, but Green might have some lightning to unleash in the M’s bottle. He can help them offensively. And will.
He might start at second in New York.
Cujo raises an interesting question. How would our seemingly similar LHP’s (Feierbend, Rohrbough, Thomas, Jimenez)compare? Using Livingston as the benchmark, are these guys likely to be better or worse?
Green at 2B in NY?? Yes please! That’s great news.
Now, if we can get Jones in LF every day, we’ll be on to something.
Hey Jason, I dunno if you already answered this but what current big leauge pitcher would you say is similar to Tillman, as far as him potentially being like? I’m thinking Adam Weinwright (sp?) is that far off?
From what have seen Jiminez and Thomas that i saw in spring training look like relievers the other two starters with Ryan and Thomas being the two best i think.I think Bliv isnt as good as Ryan but better the Rohrbaugh but what do i know.
What are the chances the Yankees have a really good scouting report on Nick Green?
Zero on Green, etown.
re: Allen
Jimenez is a reliever at best, like cujo said. One scout I have talked to says if he’s healthy he can turn into Ricardo Rincon. I can see that, but he has to stay healthy first.
Justin Thomas has better stuff than Livingston, Rohrbaugh, and more velo than Feierabend but he is having his own health issues.
BRAD Thomas is a reliever all the way, if he sees the light of day in the bigs here.
If we are comparing to Bobby, I think B-Liv is a better bet than Rohrbaugh and Jimenez (as a starter), and right behind Thomas and Feierabend.
I still really like Ryan and believe he’ll get it together.
re: on Tillman
Stylistically, he’s Gil Meche. low-to-mid 90s heater, 12-6 curve ball and a change. Meche doesn’t use the change much anymore, though, instead he chucks an average slider up there.
Physically, he’s taller than Meche and pitches taller, too. He keeps the ball down better and is probably going to get more ground balls than Meche - not going to be a ground ball pitcher, but more than Meche’s 1.00 in the end.
Wainright throws a heavier fastball and uses a splitter and a slurveball. It’s not far off, and neither is a Josh Beckett-AJ Burnett comp, minus a little velocity.
There are a lot of big-leaguers you can compare to a prototypical pitcherlike Tillman. 6-5, 200 pounds, can reach 95, plus overhand curve ball… Sounds like a ton of pitchers.
I didn’t realize it, but Nick Green played for the Yankees last year.
Still, he’s a nothing prospect and for whatever reason it seems quite common for some of these nothing prospects to go on a tear for a month stretch when they reach the big leagues. I like him better than Lopez for the time being.
Nick Green played for a lot of organizations. Five to be exact. But he’s a different Nick Green now than he’s ever been.
He’s stinging fastballs, like Jose Lopez used to do, only he can reach a fastball on the outer half and do something with it.
I wouldn’t expect him to light the Stadium on fire, but he’s a better bet than Lopez right now and the Mariners should take advantage of the opportunity.
Sitting Lopez 3 days a week isn’t going to kill him. But ya might lose him forever if he’s benched altogether.
Thanks Jason,Cujo. Good thread!
I gotta think somebody needs to do something to wake Lopez up and get him to start working again, if indeed his ethic is the main issue. He keeps making these random bursts of improvement, but regresses everywhere else.
Last year it was hitting the other way (at the expense of all power). This year started with some ability to merge the two skills and he’s shown much better defense. But now he seems to have lost both hitting skills. He looks absolutely worthless at the plate.
If Nick Green gets 1 start against the yankees i would be schocked.Managers are creatures of habit and you might here the line we are gonna ride the horses that got us here.I dont agree because sometimes you have to adjust on the fly but how many have?I think the Angels won a world series because they had a manager who said F-ROD is dealling and im gonna pitch him most mangers wont though.Ricardo Blanco stays hot i have gone past scratching my head ive begun to pull out my hair!
Conor, re: Aumont, this was posted on the Mariners website:
“Right-hander Phillippe Aumont is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in five perfect innings. Aumont — the Mariners’ first-round selection — struck out 10 of the 15 batters he’s faced in two starts against Venezuela and Mexico.”
I read that the yesterday (posted above). I was wondering what his stuff was like. Jason did you hear or see anything on film about the start?
Hey Jason,
What do you think about Carlos Gomez’s analysis from Hardball Times?
His comments seem to like some of the M’s top picks with Morrow, Aumont, and Mangini.
Haven’t read it, ek… probably won’t.
I read that analysis from Gomez to, he seemed to really like Mangini and said that he should hit for a power once he fixes some michanical issue with his front foot, so that’s promising. He also said that Aumont had some mechanical issues, but nothing major. I looked throughout the site though an I was not ble to find the anaysis on Morrow.
Dubs- sorry it was here:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/discussion/breaking_down_the_first_round/
Jason, I was wondering more about Gomez as an analyst/former player. Do you know if he’s got scouting experience or something?
Any word on the low level prospect candidate for Winterball yet?
I don’t know anything about Gomez.
re: Mangini
He has had mechanical issues with his swing for more than a year and hasn’t “figured it out, yet,” so there is a lot of question as to whether he ever will.
I originally liked the pick, but after some inquiries it was difficult to find someone in the game that though highly enough of Mangini that it seemed like a good pick for the Mariners.
It was a low-risk pick financially, and that’s what they were going for.
I think the only way he becomes a legit corner bat is if he finds the groove right away in ‘08… He really doesn’t have the time to go into 2009 as the left-handed version of Tui, which is what his skillset suggests he would be if he doesn’t push through in the power department.
And no, I haven’t talked to anyone with the M’s in awhile, so I don’t know who all of the A ball kids are going to be.
fabian williamson threw another good game, this time for the timber rattlers.
what’s the report on him? not a bad line for an 18 year old kid.
He’s interesting, but right now that’s about it. He’s ahead of the curve for his age, and certainly a great 22nd round pick… but he typically sits in the mid-80s with his fastball, touching 87-88 at times, has good control and is a smart pitcher.
He reminds me of so many other soft-tossing lefties in the game today… doesn’t mean he can’t get better, but only about 3 in 10 pitchers add more than 3 mph of velo from age 18 to 21… Feierabend was one, but Livingston, Craig Anderson, Jose Escalona… they didn’t.
He’s on my final list for “One to Watch” in 2008, along with Juan Ramirez, Edward Paredes and Mario Martinez.
Well, since Rohn’s out of the org, and you nominated Horner and Steinmann for top spot on this list, all I’ve got to say is: Free Jim Horner!!!
LOL.
I hope Austin heals quickly…
Update on AB-D…
Surgery on the 20th… but it’s not TJ. Just athroscopic.
Man, still nothin on the Salcedo front?
Nope… it’s going to get dragged out because Boras wants 4 mil.
I’d give him $4 mil… the one scout I know that has seen him extensively says he’s got just as good a chance to be a star as any first-round draft pick over the last two years.
If that’s the case, he’s worth 4 mil.
Who was/is more heralded at this point in each of their lives, Salcedo or Truinfel? Like if they were both coming out at the same time, who would be ranked number 1?
Salcedo, due to a size advantage and a tad bit of athleticism.
GIVE HIM THE MONEY!
Jason, do you know how the money is allocated to IFA’s? Is it considered along with draft signings or is it separate?
It’s somewhat separate but teams typically have an idea what they want to do in the draft versus how much they’d like to spend on IFAs but the international scene is different than the draft, because you don’t KNOW if you’ll get anyone.
The dough usually comes out from under the same unbrellas as the draft, though. Maybe if they saved on the draft they’d splurge on international guys, but I think the Mariners, for one, do that anyways. They trust Engle and company so much that they don’t worry a whole lot of a few hundred thousand bucks difference between getting a player and not.
THEY NEVER WORRY ABOUT A FEW HUNDRED THOUSAND ARE A COUPLE OF MILLION JUST ASK SPIEZIO AND POKEY…LOL..4 million is Boros getting slot money and as big as scum bag as Boros is he gets the best players and he gets them there money.
Thanks again Jason for clearing that up.
I wasn’t worried about them not spending the money, but just interested on how player development is funded.
Maybe some time in the offseason you can do a profile post on Engle, he’s got to have some stories to tell.
Engle doesn’t speak to media types a whole lot, but I could certainly dig up some of those who have worked around him, with him… things like that.
Engle is awesome. Obviously.
Jason, what position does Salcedo play? He is a righty bat correct?
He is a SS, and yes he bats R.
http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=123749
thanks baseballman
He’s currently a shortstop, yeah. Could play anywhere, as his bat projects to be pretty special.
RE:50
So as special a player as Truinfel is, Salcedo can be better!? PAY HIM! We need to start stocking the minor league shelf with quality players. With the type of money the M’s deal with, 4 million doesn’t seem to be too much when a prospect could project to be great. I don’t understand whats taking so long. Is 4 million unheard of, or is it because the kid is 16? BTW, how much did they pay for Truinfel?
I don’t think the M’s will lose out on Salcedo because of money. He may feel more comfortable with another team, like many of these kids, whose families play a large role in where they sign, i.e., Felix.
I don’t think the Mariners are going to win this one, though. But that’s fine, Dejesus is pretty solid, as is Noriega and they did well again this summer.
Triunfel was given $1.6 mil.
And yeah, 4 million is unheard of for an international signee. It’s ridiculous, but he might be worth it in the end.
Wow, didn’t know that Truinfel signed for 1.6 million. Guess 4 million is a larger number than I thought. Is this kid that good, or is it merely because boras is his agent?
Both.
clement has a looooooooong swing. damn.
I know that this is the first time I’ve seen Wlad, but he looks solid at the plate.
Clement’s been working on erasing the trigger hitch… when he does, the swing goes from medium to short. It’s not long as it is.
You wanna see a long swing? Mike Saunders.
did wladdy or jones at one point have long swings?