Four years ago Jose Lopez was a fringe blue-chip prospect with tremendous upside. There wasn’t anything he couldn’t do, including swipe a bag, hit the home run and glove the toughest of positions on the diamond.

As a teenager, the Venezuelan native was torching the Cal League and hitting big home runs in the playoffs in Double-A. He slugged over .500 as a 20-year-old in his first taste of Triple-A baseball and showed promise in his first few shots at the show.

What happened?

Lopez has not progressed much, if any at all. He’s better defensively, after switching from shortstop to second base in 2004, but in the batter’s box the opposing pitchers can simply scan over the scouting reports from his rookie year and if they execute, Lopez will get himself out.

“He’s still not very selective at the plate,” said a former American League West scout who now investigates the game for a Midwest club. “It’s as if he’s looking for the first pitch he can get his bat on and going for it, whether it’s a pitch he can handle or not. But maybe that’s part of the problem - does he know what he can hit and what he can’t?”

Lopez and double-play partner Yuniesky Betancourt are both guilty of this, it appears, though the Cuban glove man undoubtedly covers the plate better despite being completely incapable of hitting the ball hard the other way.

Lopez has done that - go with the pitch and make good, hard contact to right and right-center field - but he hasn’t been doing much of anything positive at the plate since June, and hasn’t shown any ability to hit for power since May.

“He did indeed do that last season, too,” said the scout. “Two home runs after June 2nd. Somebody figured him out and he hasn’t adjusted. I saw them (Mariners) in Chicago and Minnesota on separate trips and Lopez proved in both series why they wanted Mark Loretta at the deadline.

“You can get him to reach for pitches; early in the count especially. A lot of young hitters are like that as they are trying to avoid getting into a pitcher’s count. 0-2, 1-2; that’s not where hitters want to be.

“Lopez does not have control of his strike zone, and good pitchers and good scouting will smell that out and take advantage of it.”

The 23-year-old hit .207 in July with two extra-base hits in 92 at-bats. He drew all of one walk, drove in just five runs and grounded into more double plays than even Jose Vidro.

Here’s a more detailed breakdown of Lopez’s shortcomings with the bat -

Plate coverage -

Lopez lights up anything middle-in, but has problems keeping it fair. He’s hitting .252 on pitches in the lower third of the zone and when he gets tied up above the waist he’s hitting just .129. His slugging percentage on pitches in the middle of the zone and between the knees and the waist is .477 while hovering in the .285 range on everything else.

So if you’re facing Lopez, why throw him anything that catches a good portion of the plate unless it’s down at his ankles or off the plate away?

Pitch Selection -

This problem goes in two directions. Not only does Lopez chase pitches out of the strike zone, but his approach is as if it’s a 2-strike count as soon as he digs in. Watch him “protect” the plate on a 2-0 pitch.

He has to learn to swing at strikes, and to swing at pitches he can do something with, which brings us to…

Lopez’s Zone -

Lopez’s hot zones are limited to right down the middle and thigh high, and three-to-six inches above that. He’s slugging under .300 on pitches that don’t land right down Royal Brougham.

If anything you’d think he’d learn to be patient and get a pitch he can kill.

———

Lopez’s swing isn’t as sound at this point as the Mariners would certainly like to see - he’s had three years to get better, and hasn’t. To be fair, the loss of his brother is a more than acceptable reason for his swoon this summer, but that doesn’t really fly since ‘07 is pretty much a carbon copy of last season.

First Half:

2006 - .280/.316/.454, 9 HR, 36 XBH

2007 - .284/.321/.415, 8 HR, 21 XBH
Second Half:

2006 - .285/.322/.336, 1 HR, 10 XBH

2007 - .221/.235/.262, 0 HR, 5 XBH

While I’m not suggesting in any manner that the M’s need to pull the plug on Jose as their starting second baseman, he’s just 23 after all, but I am strongly suggesting that whoever the new hitting coach is should be picked with Lopez in mind.

He’s a .280/.320/.460 hitter who is under performing to the umpteenth power and unless the club can dig up the goods, they’ll be paying one of the more disappointing regulars in the American League for the next four seasons.

But what can any coach do for Lopez? He’s too stiff at the plate, which is partially the reason why he can’t reach the outer half to drive the ball, and it really seems as if he’s lost confidence in his bat speed, which is not gone, but his shortened swing and closed, spread stance is probably in his best interest anymore.

“I’ve seen an inch give a guy a mile,” said the scout. “One little adjustment can do wonders to how a hitter sees the ball, and can effect his balance at the point of contact. It’s definitely time for them to start experimenting with this kid.”