Four years ago Jose Lopez was a fringe blue-chip prospect with tremendous upside. There wasn’t anything he couldn’t do, including swipe a bag, hit the home run and glove the toughest of positions on the diamond.

As a teenager, the Venezuelan native was torching the Cal League and hitting big home runs in the playoffs in Double-A. He slugged over .500 as a 20-year-old in his first taste of Triple-A baseball and showed promise in his first few shots at the show.

What happened?

Lopez has not progressed much, if any at all. He’s better defensively, after switching from shortstop to second base in 2004, but in the batter’s box the opposing pitchers can simply scan over the scouting reports from his rookie year and if they execute, Lopez will get himself out.

“He’s still not very selective at the plate,” said a former American League West scout who now investigates the game for a Midwest club. “It’s as if he’s looking for the first pitch he can get his bat on and going for it, whether it’s a pitch he can handle or not. But maybe that’s part of the problem - does he know what he can hit and what he can’t?”

Lopez and double-play partner Yuniesky Betancourt are both guilty of this, it appears, though the Cuban glove man undoubtedly covers the plate better despite being completely incapable of hitting the ball hard the other way.

Lopez has done that - go with the pitch and make good, hard contact to right and right-center field - but he hasn’t been doing much of anything positive at the plate since June, and hasn’t shown any ability to hit for power since May.

“He did indeed do that last season, too,” said the scout. “Two home runs after June 2nd. Somebody figured him out and he hasn’t adjusted. I saw them (Mariners) in Chicago and Minnesota on separate trips and Lopez proved in both series why they wanted Mark Loretta at the deadline.

“You can get him to reach for pitches; early in the count especially. A lot of young hitters are like that as they are trying to avoid getting into a pitcher’s count. 0-2, 1-2; that’s not where hitters want to be.

“Lopez does not have control of his strike zone, and good pitchers and good scouting will smell that out and take advantage of it.”

The 23-year-old hit .207 in July with two extra-base hits in 92 at-bats. He drew all of one walk, drove in just five runs and grounded into more double plays than even Jose Vidro.

Here’s a more detailed breakdown of Lopez’s shortcomings with the bat -

Plate coverage -

Lopez lights up anything middle-in, but has problems keeping it fair. He’s hitting .252 on pitches in the lower third of the zone and when he gets tied up above the waist he’s hitting just .129. His slugging percentage on pitches in the middle of the zone and between the knees and the waist is .477 while hovering in the .285 range on everything else.

So if you’re facing Lopez, why throw him anything that catches a good portion of the plate unless it’s down at his ankles or off the plate away?

Pitch Selection -

This problem goes in two directions. Not only does Lopez chase pitches out of the strike zone, but his approach is as if it’s a 2-strike count as soon as he digs in. Watch him “protect” the plate on a 2-0 pitch.

He has to learn to swing at strikes, and to swing at pitches he can do something with, which brings us to…

Lopez’s Zone -

Lopez’s hot zones are limited to right down the middle and thigh high, and three-to-six inches above that. He’s slugging under .300 on pitches that don’t land right down Royal Brougham.

If anything you’d think he’d learn to be patient and get a pitch he can kill.

———

Lopez’s swing isn’t as sound at this point as the Mariners would certainly like to see - he’s had three years to get better, and hasn’t. To be fair, the loss of his brother is a more than acceptable reason for his swoon this summer, but that doesn’t really fly since ‘07 is pretty much a carbon copy of last season.

First Half:

2006 - .280/.316/.454, 9 HR, 36 XBH

2007 - .284/.321/.415, 8 HR, 21 XBH
Second Half:

2006 - .285/.322/.336, 1 HR, 10 XBH

2007 - .221/.235/.262, 0 HR, 5 XBH

While I’m not suggesting in any manner that the M’s need to pull the plug on Jose as their starting second baseman, he’s just 23 after all, but I am strongly suggesting that whoever the new hitting coach is should be picked with Lopez in mind.

He’s a .280/.320/.460 hitter who is under performing to the umpteenth power and unless the club can dig up the goods, they’ll be paying one of the more disappointing regulars in the American League for the next four seasons.

But what can any coach do for Lopez? He’s too stiff at the plate, which is partially the reason why he can’t reach the outer half to drive the ball, and it really seems as if he’s lost confidence in his bat speed, which is not gone, but his shortened swing and closed, spread stance is probably in his best interest anymore.

“I’ve seen an inch give a guy a mile,” said the scout. “One little adjustment can do wonders to how a hitter sees the ball, and can effect his balance at the point of contact. It’s definitely time for them to start experimenting with this kid.”

Tonight the Seattle Mariners will begin their most critical series since September of 2003 when the M’s trailed Oakland by three games with eight to go and went into the final game of a three-game set with the A’s with a chance to sweep and get within two.

But Gil Meche was shredded by the A’s and the Mariners were clobbered 12-0. They went on to lose the first game of the ensuing series versus the Anaheim Angels, too, when Tim Salmon took Shigetoshi Hasegawa deep in the 11th inning of a 2-1 loss.

Instead of keeping the season alive with two wins, the M’s allowed Oakland to clinch the division, deeming the two clubs’ season-ending series as moot as it gets.

Two straight years the Mariners blew their chance at the playoffs by struggling in the second half and giving way to a division rival. Once Oakland, once the Angels.

But that was then, and only Ichiro, J.J. Putz and Willie Bloomquist remain from the 2003 club, and Putz tossed a mere 3 2/3 innings. Out are the aging Edgar Martinez, Bret Boone, John Olerud, Dan Wilson, closer Kaz Sasaki, lefty specialist Arthur Rhodes, slider-man Jeff Nelson and the worst good five-man rotation in recent memory.

In is the youth and revamped offense that includes three Joses, two good, one not so good, a red hot Raul Ibanez and a ho-hum season for Ichiro, now the club’s center fielder.

But we aren’t here to talk about the differences between the two Mariners ballclubs. There are much more pressing issues.

The Mariners absolutely have to win at least two of the three games in this series, and though the season wouldn’t be over if they didn’t, the west might be won or lost this week and battling the Yankees for the wildcard isn’t even something fans nor the team itself even want to think about.

Beating John Lackey in game one isn’t going to be easy, but there are a few M’s bats that have a clue against the right-hander.

Lackey went the distance in a shutout win over Seattle on July 31 to extend his scoreless streak versus the M’s to 17 2/3 innings.

M’s versus Lackey -

Ibanez: 14-41, 2-2B, 5BB, 4K

Lopez: 8-25, 2-2B

Sexson: 9-28, 2 HR

Ichiro: 21-67, 2-2B, HR

Guillen: 1-6

Vidro: 4-10

Broussard: 6-21, 2 HR

Johjima: 7-20, HR

Betancourt: 5-21, 3B, HR

Beltre: 7-36, 2B, HR

Total: .298, 8 HR

Angels versus Batista -

Guerrero: 12-23, 3-2B, HR

Cabrera: 9-28, 2-2B, HR

Figgins: 2-10, 2B, 3B

Izturis: 1-11, 2B

Matthews: 3-18, 3B

Willits: 4-5

Anderson: 3-12, 2B

Kendrick: 0-3

Mathis: 1-2

Morales: 2-3, HR

Total: .322, 3 HR

Seattle Mariners (73-54) at Texas Rangers (57-72)

The Mariners are 8-7 against the Rangers this season but have given up 68 runs in those 15 games, including 18 long balls. Seattle was swept in a four-game series in Texas July 23-25, including a double header on the middle day.

Game four has Jarrod Washburn taking the mound against Vicente Padilla. Washburn is almost always horrible in Texas, so the M’s will have to get to Padilla to have a chance in this one.

But Padilla is 1-5 with a 7.07 ERA in his career versus Seattle and is 0-2 this season, allowing 11 earned runs in nine innings.

The Los Angeles Angels play four with the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend, holding a two-game lead entering play Thursday.

Toronto leads the season series 4-2.

Game 4: Kelvim Escobar vs. Dustin McGowan

The New York Yankees continue a four-gamer in Detroit against the Tigers.

NYY leads the seasons series 4-2.

Game 3: Phil Hughes vs. Jair jurjjens

Game 4: Mike Mussina, in what could be his last start in a Yankees uniform, vs. Justin Verlander.

Due to the lack of available information, there hasn’t been much to talk about yet with the international signing period almost seven weeks old. Clubs are even more hush-hush on this than they were with the negotiations with their draft picks.

But Baseball America’s update today included a few notes about your Seattle Mariners.

First off, they are one of the three front runners for Edward Salcedo, a shortstop from the Dominican and a Scott Boras client that is expected to get the biggest bonus.

He wasn’t eligible until July 30, so negotiations are still very fresh, but Seattle is very much in on him, and one person I spoke to said they might be the team out in front if they are willing to pony up the dough.

Boras was initially hinting at a $5 million bonus, but that’s not going to happen. He might get Salcedo as much as $3 million, however, which is a steep price for a kid that turned 16 three weeks ago.

In Bob Engle we trust, though, and if he says give him $3 million, I’d listen to him.

BA’s report stated that Boras expects to get his player signed by the end of next week.

Stay tuned.

The M’s did ink a shortstop already in 17-year-old Jhrmivy Dejesus who reportedly received a $1.05 million bonus. One scouting director called Dejesus “an everyday shortstop with a potentially plus bat. Not a superstar, but a really valuable talent.”

Carlos Triunfel Photo by Mike Andruski