We’ve been tossing ideas back and forth for weeks. So have the Mariners with several clubs, mostly about starting pitching, but also about a few relievers and a bat or two.

While I don’t expect anything of impact to go down, here’s what’s out there and what it might take for Seattle to land some help.

Starting Pitchers

Dontrelle Willis, LHP - Florida

The Marlins keep saying he’s not available, which is either a lie, stupidity or both.  Willis is an average pitcher, at best, and is in the midst of a serious decline that should raise the highest of red flags, since he’s on the wrong side of 30 for such regression.

Florida is certain to demand Adam Jones from Seattle, or a combination of Wlad Balentien, Jeff Clement and Chris Tillman.  That’s a lot to pay for any arm on the market and just far too much for Dontrelle.

Jason Jennings, RHP - Houston

Jennings is an interesting arm but the questions surrounding the right-hander are all about health.  He was bombed Sunday morning and didn’t even get out of the first inning against a mediocre Padres lineup.  His shoulder is clearly not sound, and after today’s disaster is probably off the radar of most teams, including Seattle.

A healthy, signed Jennings is worth dealing Balentien for, but there’s so little evidence that he can stay off the disabled list, that he’s not even worth talking about anymore.

Livan Hernandez, RHP - Arizona

Hernandez wouldn’t be a terrible pickup for any club, and there isn’t a ton of money attached to him any longer, but he’s a marginal upgrade to what Seattle is riding with at the moment.  Livan has a history of being a workhorse and four years ago he’d have made some sense, but there are some concerns about all those innings finally taking its toll on his right arm.

If the M’s can get him without giving up Jones, Wlad or Clement, it may be a decent idea.

Kyle Lohse, RHP - Cincinnati

Not much to say about Loshe; he’s a little bit like Gil Meche.  Good stuff, throws hard, but can’t get it together.  I smell a trade to KC.

For Seattle, Lohse isn’t much better than Ramirez, and that’s the guy they want to supplant in the rotation.

Matt Morris, RHP - San Francisco

Is he better than Ramirez? Probably not, and he’s been awful since June 11 with an ERA well over seven.  I would be surprised if the Mariners made any sort of deal for a starter that wasn’t easily a better option than at least Horacio Ramirez.

Now if the Giants want to take Richie Sexson, the two clubs could probably figure something out.

Jose Contreras, RHP - Chicago

The money attached to his contract makes Contreras tough to deal and a difficult one to swallow for any team looking for pitching.  It does appear that Ken Williams is pulling a bait and switch, however, dangling two other starters and a bat and when he gets other clubs to call, he pitches Contreras at them.

Bronson Arroyo, RHP - Cincinnati

I think his arm is going to fall off in a year or so, but he’s a decent pitcher.  He also has a hefty contract, so if the M’s were to get involved,  some cash would probably have to change hands.

Jon Garland, RHP - Chicago

One of the better starters that could be moved is also one of the more expensive arms available.  He’d certainly cost the Mariners a premium package, if not Adam Jones.

Kei Igawa, LHP - New York

Just. Say. No.

Rodrigo Lopez, RHP - Colorado

Is he better than Ramirez?  Yeah, he is.  More consistent, still cheap, a veteran… he’s an upgrade, but not an impact arm.

Ian Snell, RHP - Pittsburgh

Snell would cost any team a blue-chip young talent, and the M’s would certainly have to send Adam Jones to the steel city to get Snell in return.

Kevin Millwood, RHP - Texas

If Texas was smart, they’d unload Millwood while they can.  Just not to Seattle for anything of value.

Carlos Silva, RHP - Minnesota

Silva is an interesting case.  A severe ground ball pitcher who can’t miss bats.  He has some value to a team with a good infield defense, but isn’t going to change the outcome of any pennant races.  He could fit into the M’s rotation, but again, not much of an upgrade over Ramirez.

Relief Pitchers

Octavio Dotel, RHP - Kansas City

Dotel has been a closer in the past and most of his stuff is back after elbow surgery.  As a setup man he has a lot of value, but the Mariners have no business wasting anything of value to add another relief arm.

Let the Yankees, Red Sox or Indians give up one of their best three prospects for 20 innings from Dotel.

Al Reyes, RHP - Seattle

Tampa is selling off and Reyes is certainly available as the Rays are looking to sell high with he and Carlos Pena.  I think the Yankees and Mets are battling for his services and will end up overpaying, but he’s the player most likely to end up in Seattle.

Eric Gagne, RHP - Texas

Gagne might be the best reliever available and if the Dodgers want to win their division, they should be knocking down the Rangers’ door for him.  With Chad Billingsley back in the rotation and the kids performing everyday, their only weakness is in the bullpen.

But could you imagine Gagne in the Mariners pen for two months?  WOW.

Akinori Otsuka, RHP - Texas

Otsuka is as good as gone, opined Texas skipper Ron Washington last week.  He’ll fetch a decent return, but nothing earth shattering.

Jon Rauch, RHP - Washington

Note to Seattle: Go get Rauch this offseason, send him to winter ball and turn him back into a starter.

Chad Cordero, RHP - Washington

Will probably get the Nats a return he shouldn’t.  He’s solid, but he’s better suited in a setup role on a contending team.

Chad Qualls, RHP - Houston

With Wheeler gone to Tampa, Qualls could be next.

Brad Lidge, RHP - Houston

Lidge still has great stuff, but his command is gone and his slider needs refinement.

Chad Bradford, RHP - Baltimore

Someone may get him for cheap and be happier with that deal than others may be with the moves they made for Dotel, Reyes and Otsuka.

Danys Baez, RHP - Baltimore

Blech.

Bats

Jermaine Dye, OF - Chicago

One AL GM thinks Dye is the key to the AL East race.   I guess that’s because he thinks the Red Sox are on him and that Dye makes the difference.  I think he’s way off.  Dye is ok, but Boston’s bullpen and the Yankees rotation will decide that race.

Brad Wilkerson, OF - Texas

Could be a nice lefty bat for someone to plop into the six or seven spot and mash righties.  Not sure he fits in Seattle very well, and may not be a regular, but he can hit the right-handers.

Adam Dunn, OF - Cincinnati

I’m hearing Baltimore is considering a Daniel Cabrera-Nolan Reimold for Dunn-Arroyo-Weathers deal.  Hmmm.  Not sure Wayne Krivsky will be allowed to make such a deal.  Rumor is that both Krivsky and their interim manager Pete Mackanin will be gone at season’s end so Tony LaRussa and Walt Jocketty can move from St. Louis to Cincinnati.

Carlos Pena, 1B - Tampa Bay

It’s my mini dream to shed Sexson, add Pena and call up Adam Jones before Tuesday’s deadline.

Mark Teixeira, 1B - Texas

I wouldn’t trade James Loney or Matt Kemp plus Scott Elbert and a third prospect for Teixeira is I were LA, but the Braves deal seems fair.  Jarrod Salatalmacchia is a good player if he plays first, but a great value if he can catch.

If the Halos get involved, it’s probably going to cost them Casey Kotchman and their top pitching prospect Nick Adenhart.  I think they should make that move, but that’s because If I was them, I wouldn’t.

Clearly, I’m not a huge fan of Mark Teixeira.

Jay Gibbons, OF - Baltimore

See: Brad Wilkerson.

Jacque Jones, OF - Chicago

Still think he ends up back in Minnesota somehow.

Mike Piazza, DH - Oakland

Piazza to the Angels?  How about the Twins?  Both make sense.

When the deadline hits, the M’s probaby won’t have made a significant move, but the most likely name players to be traded are Jeremy Reed, Julio Mateo, Wladimir Balentien, Eric O’Flaherty and anyone below AAA.

UPDATE: We’ve received enough guests who have made donations and emails are no longer necessary. If you wish to attend the party Saturday, all you need to do now is leave a comment in this thread with your first name and last initial and how many people you are bringing.

Remember 21 and over only, but the food is on the house. We’ll give away some Rainiers and AquaSox tickets, as well as a pair of tickets to see the M’s versus a division rival (not Oakland, not Texas, lol).

First off, Mulleady’s is located at 3055 21st Ave W in Magnolia.

Okay, I’m going to get right to it. In order to keep this a public party, I refuse to charge anyone for admission to Mulleady’s. But, and yeah, there is a but, just not a butt, I hope, I do need to find a way to make sure too many aren’t showing up, and since I’d prefer to keep the attendees under the 75-person capacity of the room we have for the first two hours of the party, we’re going to do the following.

The first 15 who make a paypal donation to prospect insider of at least 10 bucks - which will be used FOR the party - is in. And if that means I have to go over the 75-person limit, I’ll do that, too. But due to the lack of advanced warning, I suspect we’ll be fine in that regard.

When you make your donation, I will receive notification via e-mail, and reply to those e-mail addresses to confirm and verify and all that cool stuff. The donation will help me fund the party in general, but particularly for the food and drinks and a few prizes we’ll give away. Trust me, the 10 snaps will be more than worth your BBQ plate by itself.

After that, I’ll be taking the next 30 on the list.

So how do you get on the list? Starting NOW, e-mail churchill@prospectinsider.com with your first and last name and the first and last name of any adult guest you wish to bring.

It’s that easy.

For those of you who know me personally, and you know you are (if you aren’t sure, then you don’t know me personally), you do not need to donate or email to get on the guest list.

We’ll be checking names at the door, so be on it or be gone!

Reminder: M’s tickets, Rainiers tickets and Everett AquaSox tickets will be given away at the event, as well as a few other items I’m working on.

And I’m open to suggestions for other activities if anyone wishes to add to the evening.

Mulleady’s is located at 3055 21st Ave W in Magnolia… go Here for Directions and a Map.

See ya there!

It’s been a long, long time since the Seattle Mariners had a reason to stick their nose in the air like they own the town and act as if. It seems like it’s been a decade, but it’s been about six years, give or take.

The 2007 Seattle Mariners aren’t too bad after all, following three seasons of mediocrity laced with disappointing transactions and a fan base that’s asked for the heads of everyone in the organization not wearing a uniform on game day.

But the question on Friday July 13 isn’t centered around who to fire, who to hire and who to lay the blame on. The question of the day is “what will it take for the M’s to continue to contend in the American League?”

I don’t know, for sure, but standing pat is not the answer.

That’s not to say that GM Bill Bavasi should offer up Adam Jones and Ryan Feierabend for Matt Morris or Carlos Silva just to get something done, but he’s out looking for starting pitching, and very aggressively according to one National League executive.

“I know we’ve had more than one conversation with Seattle,” he said, noting that he hadn’t spoken to Bavasi personally but that the two sides have had more than one team representative contact each other. “We don’t have anyone we’re trying to trade, especially an arm that might help them but we have needs further down in the organization that we may be able to fill and something could get done if the pieces fit.

“But I also understand from talking to other clubs that they (Seattle) have been pushing the action quite a bit, so if they can make a good deal, it sounds like they will pull the trigger.”

One thing we should remember is the club’s stance on top prospect Adam Jones. Jones’ value to the team is still as high as it was when the idea that Ichiro would be leaving town was still a possibility. Yeah, sure, Jones won’t necessarily be needed in center field for at least a few seasons when Ichiro may lose a step or two and move back to right field at age 36 or so, but Jones still brings the same pluses to the big club; power, speed, plus defense, big time throwing arm and perhaps the most underrated value, his league-minimum salary for the first three seasons of his career.

The M’s can get average or better production out of Jones in left field and get it for far less than such production would cost on the trade market or via free agency. Because of that fact, Bavasi should be, and by all accounts is, unwilling to trade the 21-year-old for anything but a legitimate frontline starting pitcher of reasonable age and contract salary and status.

Basically, this means that unless the Houston Astros call and offer Roy Oswalt, signed for five years and $73 million a year ago, Jones isn’t going anywhere. He’s not going to be dealt to the White Sox for Jon Garland or Jose Contreras, and he isn’t being shipped to San Francisco for Noah Lowry.

There might be a multi-player deal that includes a solid, if not frontline starting pitcher, and a left-handed hitting first baseman where the M’s include Jones, and of course Richie Sexson and some cash, but those deals aren’t often concocted in July.

[Yes, I just said concocted.]

The club’s second-tier trade bait includes catcher Jeff Clement, outfielder Wladimir Balentien, left-hander Ryan Feierabend and outfielder Jeremy Reed, whom a few teams still see a cheap stop-gap in center field for a few seasons.

The Mariners have a decision to make between now and the start of the 2008 seasons when Balentien, who is out of options, has to be among the 25 players taken north for Opening Day, traded elsewhere, or exposed to waivers where he wouldn’t last five minutes.

The conundrum stems from the projected ‘08 lineup including so many righty sticks that adding both Balentien and Jones to it further imbalances the order. The ideal solution is trading Sexson, which is another story for another day, or the Mariners could look to get as much trade value as possible from their second best offensive prospect.

Which leads us to this…

“He obviously doesn’t have the kind of tag that brings back what they (Mariners) want,” said an American League scout of Balentien. “But it’s possible that Jones wouldn’t do that, either, at least not by himself. Either way it would have to be some sort of package thing. They’ll have to give up someone they really don’t want to lose; either Jones or a guy from the 25-man. There really isn’t an easy move to make if you are one of the dozen clubs looking for help in the rotation.”

There has been talk of the Mariners trying to pull off a trade that lands them both a starting pitcher and a hitter, but those I have spoke to say that would be contingent on Sexson being traded first or being included in the trade. The Mariners have yet to indicate that they’d be willing to send any cash in any deal for any player going out, and apparently have not discussed the first baseman with any team since December.

In other words, don’t count on that happening.

But count on the Mariners and GM Bill Bavasi doing everything they can to improve the starting rotation before - and after - the July 31 trade deadline.

Just don’t expect to be dazzled with the results, and pray that Dontrelle Willis doesn’t end up in Seattle.

Mets Have Stud Outfield Prospects

Everyone talks about Lastings Milledge but Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez might have brighter futures than the highly-touted Milledge. Gomez, 21, is on the DL with a broken hand, but was playing well in the big leagues prior to the injury.

Martinez , just 18, is also on the DL in Double-A Binghamton, but is an exciting talent that the Mets think very highly of, and for good reason.

I recently caught up with an NL executive and asked about the two outfielders.

“Even though it’s a cliche, Gomez is similar to Jose Reyes offensively,” he said. “He will chase pitches out of the zone but has improved in that area this season. For now, big-league pitchers can get him out by making his expand the zone, but he’s learning.

“As far as what he can do, though… his ceiling is very high. He projects to be an above-average hitter with average power, but possesses game-changing speed. He could end up hitting .290 with 20 homers and 60 steals. He also has Gold-Glove ability in center field, though he’s likely to slide to right with the presence of (Carlos) Beltran, but his arm is tremendous, a 70, and plays easily in any of the three outfield spots.

“His glove is a little wasted in a corner, like Ichiro’s before he made the move, but with he and Reyes at the top of the lineup, you could see 150 steals between them.

“Fernando is more of a pure hitter with a very quick bat and amazing pop, despite his size. He’s about 6 feet and 190 pounds. At 18 he’s more than holding his own in AA and is displaying the ability to hit .300 with 30 homers. He’s a future 70 hitter with 70 power. Statistically speaking, and tools wise, he really looks like a young Miguel Cabrera. He’s an average to slightly above-average runner, average arm and average glove.

“He’s handling center field now, but he’ll likely move to a corner in the majors, or at worst first base. With Beltran in center and Gomez projecting to right field, Martinez is probably the left fielder of the future. I hear he’s set to stay in AA for the remainder of this season, and it’s not out of the question that he returns there to begin next season as well. But if he turns a corner, he could see NY very, very soon.”

For a team who spends tons of money on stars like Pedro Martinez, Billy Wagner, Beltran and Carlos Delgado, the Mets sure know how to draft and develop. Reyes, David Wright, Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Joe Smith, Milledge, Gomez and Martinez are all impact talents that could be the foundation of more than a decade of dominance in the senior circuit for the other team in New York.

Update on attendance coming Saturday:

On July 28th, we’ll celebrate.

No, we won’t celebrate the firing, or eventual firing of Mike Hargrove. We won’t poke fun at a potentially serious situation where the Mariners former manager decided it was best to leave his post as skipper of the Emerald City Nine.

What we will do is celebrate a new beginning. A new manager, a new attitude, and a brand new feeling of baseball this summer. The Seattle Mariners have found a way to turn things around after three seasons of torture.

They didn’t do it the conventional way, and they certainly didn’t do it in a manner that made much sense to anyone, but the M’s are a pretty good baseball team right now, and damnit, that’s enough to warrant a party all by itself.

And just when we thought we’d ONLY be celebrating a pretty fun Mariners season, they went and re-signed Ichiro, the league’s MVP.

When: Saturday, July28th, probably at 3 or 4 pm.

Where: Mulleady’s in Magnolia (Address and directions to come)

Who’s Invited: Everyone is invited, but we will need to limit the attendees due to space. I’ll post more information in a day or so, including how the process will be handled.

The Cost: There will be no cost to you, unless you want beer or something, and I may find a route to take care of that, too. The bar menu will run as a tab that will be taken care of at the end of the night.

What Will We Do?: We’ll eat, talk baseball, including about the M’s game that will end in the 4 o’clock hour, and I’ll share a notebook full of news, notes and tidbits that will include any and all trade rumors.

I’ll speak on other subjects such as the status of GM Bill Bavasi, who is in the final year of his contract, as well as center fielder Ichiro, to whom the M’s have just given the team’s largest contract.

I’ll have some news on the M’s ownership group, some of you will already have heard it from me by then if you don’t by now, including the rumors this spring that former GM and consultant Pat Gillick wants in when Nintendo sells the club.

We’ll give away some game tickets to the M’s, Rainiers and AquaSox and maybe a few others prizes that we can come up with.

There aren’t going to be any special guests, as we’re in the middle of the season and the players, coaches, managers and such are all hard at work. But you’ll be surrounded by nothing but Mariners fans who are as giddy as you are that the M’s are hunting down the Halos and are one of the best four or five teams in the game. It’s been a long time coming - seems like 10 years - and this town deserves a winner.

Other activities may be added as we get a little closer to the 28th, but I guess those will just be a little surprise if they come about.

You’ll be welcome to stay and eat and drink until management kicks us out.