Well, there is more than one way too look at the M’s draft, particularly the 11th overall pick in round one. We can talk about how the club made a great decision in taking the most talented player remaining instead of reaching for the best college relief arm available in order to get the quickest return.
Or, we can all pitch in and send the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers a fruit basket to thank them for their efforts in making the draft a success for the Seattle Mariners.
Though I’ve been told since the pick was made that the Mariners would have selected Aumont ahead of every other player in the draft except David Price, Josh Vitters and Ross Detweiler, the Brewers and Pirates made it very easy for the hometown nine to make the right decision.
Seattle never had any intention of drafting Arkansas lefty Nick Schmidt ahead of Aumont and a few others, but if Vandy’s Casey Weathers was still available, things would have been somewhat interesting. Things would have gotten dicey had Clemson’s Daniel Moskos been there at No. 11, because the Mariners love Moskos and what they believe he can bring to the pitching staff in a number of future roles.
But in the end, Pittsburgh’s ridiculous overdrafting of Moskos and the Giants everlasting need to save money - somewhere… on something that isn’t a Major League payroll - made it a simple choice for Seattle.
There were four players left in the Mariners Top 12 when they selected in the first round, including Aumont. Matt Dominguez, Beau Mills and Blake Beavan were all selected within six picks after the M’s tabbed their Canadian right-hander.
The selection of Aumont was the right one, by all accounts. His upside is as big-time as any prep arm in the draft, including Rick Porcello, and his physical tools scream innings eater. Aumont’s fastball is the type we like around here. It’s heavy, has good sinking action and tails away from left-handed hitters.
He pitches from a 3/4 slot, which is why his slider is very likely to be his breaking ball of choice. He does throw a curve, but it’s often flat and thrown too hard to sustain effectiveness, though the Mariners are believers in the curve ball and could determine that Aumont will work on it and see what happens.
His change is of the circle variety and could be his most important pitch, at least as a big leaguer. He may cruise in the lower levels with his heater and slider, but he’ll need to be able to change speeds against the better hitters in the upper levels, and certainly in the majors.
In the P-I today I comp’d Aumont to Roy Halladay, not in style but in ceiling ability. Halladay, too, sits in the low 90s with his sinking fastball - touching 94-96 when they feel like it - and though Doc uses a curve ball over a true slider, his height is very important in what he does - just like Aumont.
Aumont has some experience throwing the two-seamer and it’s something he and the Mariners will have to agree on immediately, which is that he’ll use it on the side, but rarely in games until he shows he can consistently command his three primary pitches.
His mechanics are raw, which is just to say he’s a little stiff in his lower body and will need to work with Brad Holman, the organization’s best at making adjustments in the area of a pitcher’s mechanics, to smooth things out.
Aumont should be a super-quick sign which will allow the team to get him a taste of Peoria and/or Everett for a month to six weeks to get his feet wet. This would allow him to begin Spring Training next February on track to start the year in Class A Wisconsin without it being all brand new to him. He’ll have met everyone, built a relationship with some coaches, managers and other players, and had the chance to shake the green froth from his game.
The M’s get an A for drafting Aumont, and it simply doesn’t matter what Dominguez, Mills, Heyward or anyone else drafted right behind him does in the future. The M’s drafted the best player available, and that’s how you build a farm system that results in a consistent, winning organization with a regularly competitive Major League Baseball Club.
In the supplemental round, I originally thought the Mariners overdrafted Matt Mangini, the 3B from Oklahoma State. But since both Sean Doolittle, among those the M’s ranked in the top 25 overall, and Brett Cecil, another in the Mariners top 25 or so, were gone, the club made the right move in taking a chance with Mangini.
Mangini’s stock fell due to a sub par season, but the tools that had him projected as a first-round pick early this season are still there. There have been reports about his approach changing in order for him to make more consistent contact and that might explain why his numbers weren’t special this year.
Many scouts still like him and think he’ll make the transition to the wood bat as well as any hitter in the draft because he’s had more success using wood versus aluminum.
At 6-4 and 230 pounds, Mangini isn’t likely to stick at third base but he should be able to learn and play first base pretty easily and if his bat returns to form, the M’s got a Top 20 talent at No. 52 overall.
Grade: A
I do think the club reached in round two for Denny Almonte and somewhat in round three for Danny Carroll, but the selection of Nolan Gallagher from Stanford might be a bit of a steal in round four.
The Mariners may use Gallagher exclusively out of the bullpen at first and try to get him to exert more effort into his delivery in attempt to subdue his control problems. It worked for Mark Lowe who ended up adding five or six mphs on his fastball and sharpening out his slider in the process.
Joe Dunigan is a pretty good pick, in my opinion. I asked a scout about him and though the review wasn’t glowing as if he should have been a first rounder, the evaluation of his tools and a potential “explosion” of his physical tools spells “value” in round five.
The three most interesting picks of the M’s draft, however, were 7th rounder Nick Hill , a left-handed pitcher from Army, right-handed pitcher Bryan Harris from Cal State Fullerton in round 22 and lefty Donnie Hume from San Diego State in the 8th round.
Hill, 21, has enough stuff, according to one Mariners scout, to turn into a big-league starter and could help out in relief until he’s ready. Hill has good command of three pitches with just enough velocity to compete.
He’s probably not on the fast track - think Robert Rohrbaugh - but he might be able to help down the road, and that’s all you can ask of a 7th round pick.
In all, the Mariners did pretty well, though I would have preferred to see them stay a little safer in rounds three through six, but they certainly can’t be blamed much more going with the high reward talents.
Overall Grade: B
I think the Mariners got two future big-league players in this year’s draft, and maybe three if one of the arms in Hill, Harris or Hume pans out.
Almonte and Dunigan are interesting and Almonte’s upside is there, so he’ll be fun to watch progress. Adam Jones had a few of the same concerns when he was drafted in 2003, and not many questioned the pick at the time.
Last year’s draft was probably deeper for Seattle, but Aumont is an impact arm with a chance to be better than Morrow in the rotation.
Kudos to the Mariners for a very good 2007 Draft.
Send Kudos to Prospect Insider for this Report!
STRENGTHS: Aumont is an aggressive pitcher who trusts his stuff and has displayed mound presence and maturity beyond his years. He is a product of the revamped and much improved national baseball program in Canada and is considered the country’s best prospect since Adam Loewen of the Orioles.
Not much has changed in this town, eh?
I asked about Matt Wieters falling and if the Mariners might bite, even though they selected Clement at No. 3 two years ago.