It’s mid-season already. Geez, where did the time go?
As the Major League All-Star Break nears, the minor league affiliates are at the halfway point here at the end of June, which means it’s time to take a look at where the top talents in the system are now, versus at the beginning of the season - as well as everywhere in between.
If you haven’t heard by now, Adam Jones is really good and clearly Major League ready. He’s taken another step or two toward his ceiling potential, and should be roaming the outfield at Safeco Field already. Jones has proven - again - that he’s got nothing left to prove in Triple-A Tacoma.
Even after a mild slump where the 21-year-old is just two for his last 20, Jones is hitting .309/.380/.574 with 17 homers, 58 RBI, 20 doubles and four triples. What’s more, the former first round draft pick has gone more than one game without a hit just once this season, and that occurred in Sacramento last week when Jones left the second game of the drought with just two at-bats after slamming into the outfield wall.
Jones is hitting .303/.381/.564 versus RHPs, .325/.379/.600 versus lefties, .288/.351/.510 at home and .331/.410/.641 on the road.
That’s consistency, my friends, and that’s what clubs look for in prospects. His plus bat speed, baseball IQ and defensive improvement have Jones on the cusp of his destiny to become the next all-star center fielder in Seattle.
Showtime isn’t the only bat turning heads in T-town, however, as Wladimir Balentien’s prowess as power hitter has morphed into an ability to sustain a solid approach and better plate discipline than he’s ever shown.
Without going into too much detail at this point in the season, we’ll leave all that for the comments area and the offseason rankings, here are the Top Mariners Prospects, both on the mound and at the plate.
Note: Any player who does not profile with a potential Major League future will not be mentioned, though there may be a few left off the list that do have the potential to reach the big leagues and provide a useful service to the parent club. The following are not ranked in any order; position listed in projected ML defensive position.
| Position Players/Bats | |||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Position | Level/Age | MLB ETA |
PI Says… | |||||||||||||||
| Adam Jones |
CF |
AAA/21 | 2007 | Big-league ready right now. Future .280/.350/.475 bat in center field. | |||||||||||||||
| Carlos Triunfel |
3B | A/17 | 2010 | Big-time offensive skills. Bat could play anywhere. | |||||||||||||||
| Wladimir Balentien | LF | AAA/22 | 2007 | Has 30+homer pop, showing he can hit some, too. | |||||||||||||||
| Jeff Clement | C/DH |
AAA/23 | 2007 | Still has questions to answer with bat, but developing nicely. | |||||||||||||||
| Matt Mangini | 1B/3B |
SS/21 | 2009 | Needs to bring 2006 back…when he hit for power. | |||||||||||||||
| Matt Tuiasosopo |
3B/OF | AA/21 | 2009 | Where’s the power at Tui? | |||||||||||||||
| Rob Johnson |
C |
AAA/23 |
2008 | Still learning at the plate, pretty darned good behind it. | |||||||||||||||
| Michael Saunders |
LF |
A+/20 |
2010 | Swing still too long. Needs to be challenged in AA this summer. | |||||||||||||||
| Adam Moore |
C | A+/23 |
2009 | Good bat speed, decent backstop. Good combo. | |||||||||||||||
| Mario Martinez |
3B/OF | R/17 |
2011 | Plus bat up the middle. Not as far behind Triunfel as some thought. | |||||||||||||||
| Anthony Phillips |
2B/SS |
R/17 |
2012 | High energy grinder. Think “Dustin Pedroia.” | |||||||||||||||
| Alex Liddi |
3B |
A/18 | 2012 | Raw talent with good upside. Should stick at the hot corner. | |||||||||||||||
| Greg Halman |
CF |
SS/20 |
2012 | Plus athlete, can’t draw walks, but has legit power and can play center. | |||||||||||||||
| Yung Chi Chen | UT | AAA/23 |
2008 | Versatile defender, decent bat. DL’d with bad shoulder. | |||||||||||||||
| Pitchers | |||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Position | Level/Age | MLB ETA |
PI Says… | |||||||||||||||
| Phillippe Aumont |
RHS |
-/18 | 2011 | Has frontline ability, projectable physical tools. | |||||||||||||||
| Chris Tillman |
RHS | A+/19 | 2010 | Rushed to the Cal League, struggles are worrysome to psyche. | |||||||||||||||
| Tony Butler |
LHS | A/19 | 2010 | Shoulder problems are scary. Tough customer when healthy. | |||||||||||||||
| Juan Ramirez |
RHS | SS/18 | 2010 | Sat 91-95 in first two starts of ‘07… plus stuff, command isn’t bad, either. | |||||||||||||||
| Kameron Mickolio |
RHR |
AAA/22 | 2008 | Could see bigs in September- touching mid-90s with four-seamer.. | |||||||||||||||
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | RHR | A+/22 | 2008 | AB-D settling in as best relief prospect with six straight shutout frames. | |||||||||||||||
| Edward Paredes |
LHS |
SS/20 | 2010 | Stellar in first two starts, sitting 89-92 with a big-league change. | |||||||||||||||
| Ryan Feierabend |
LHS |
MLB/21 | 2007 | Holding his own in the majors. Still a year or so away. | |||||||||||||||
| Doug Fister |
RHR |
AA/23 | 2008 | Sinking fastball and mound presence spells big-league reliever. | |||||||||||||||
| Doug Salinas |
RHR | SS/18 | 2011 | Prototype at 6-5/195, sits 90+, good curve ball. | |||||||||||||||
| Robert Rohrbaugh |
LHS |
AAA/23 | 2008 | More like T-Black than T-Black himself… minus the ‘tude . | |||||||||||||||
| Nathan Adcock |
RHS | A/19 | 2011 | Has No. 3 stuff, but long reliever’s command. | |||||||||||||||
Catcher Adam Moore and infielder Anthony Phillips are interesting players that haven’t received much pub yet, while nobody has even seen Mario Martinez play — until now. I got about 10 minutes of video on him earlier this week and I really, really like what I see. And though all reports had him as an outfielder, his days as a shortstop are not over. The Mariners think he might be able to stick. If not, he has the athleticism to play center field and the arm to play third base or right field.
His bat, well, we’ll have to wait and see, but all the tools are there. He’s got a lot of natural ability.
Moore, seen left and below at right, reminds me of Michael Barrett a bit offensively, which isn’t bad at all, and the pitchers really like working with him. Roger Hansen thinks he’s got a chance to catch at the big-league level if he continues to improve at his current rate.
The Mariners have catching depth, and let’s not forget that Rob Johnson is a legit defensive catcher and his bat is believable, despite the gap power remaining MIA for the most part. But it’s in there and he’s improved exponentially since the end of 2006.
If Greg Halman could draw a walk at a decent rate and cut the strikeouts, he’d be an elite prospect. The 20-year-old might be the best athlete in the entire system and his play in center field is promising.
On the pitching side, Kam Mickolio, all 6-9 and 260 pounds of him, has found a groove in his mechanics and his velo has risen to the low-to-mid 90s with sink and tail. He could see time in Seattle this summer, far ahead of schedule. Give the Mariners credit for pushing the right-hander to AA to start the year. he was clearly ready for the challenge.
Austin Bibens-Dirkx owns a 3.32 ERA heading into Friday night’s game. Um, hello, is anyone in Seattle listening? The dude has a 3.32 ERA in the friggin’ California League… his home park in High Desert! Anyone? Bueller?
Someone get him out of there before he asks to play shortstop so he can hit .350 with power.
Photo Credits -
Wlad Balentien: Paul Marsh at paulmphotography.com
Adam Moore x 2: Mike Andruski
I thought u liked Justin Thomas more than Feierabend… Im suprised he didn’t even get a mention..
Great job though otherwise
Thomas’ battles with arm issues just kept him off the list. Doesn’t mean he won’t have a future in MLB. Butler is young enough to go through this and rebound. Thomas is 22 already.
And no,I have always liked Feierabend better than Thomas. See the rankings from this past winter.
Nice work Jason.
Given the M’s need for a quality RHR who can throw strikes, do you see any 2008 versions of Mark Lowe on your list?
No. Lowe was absolutely nasty last year. But Mickolio and Bibens-Dirkx have the stuff to come up and pitch well.
Lowe, how I wish you were back so Morrow could be in the Minors working on everything to become a Starter for the M’s…
Anyways, just wondering why Morrow wasn’t on the list and Feir was?
Jason, this is purely hypothetical, but how high are you on AB-D. If you could would you send him up now so that Morrow could be sent down to work on being a starter?
Your table has Mickolio listed as pitching in Everett instead of Tacoma.
Jason
This was a pleasant surprise. Interesting that 3 more RP’s are close to being ready for 08′ and no new SP ready until 10′ except for maybe Rohrbaugh or Thomas. Our #4 and #5 must come from Freierabend, Baek, or Ramirez in 08′. I guess we pray that Mangini is ready to replace Sexson in 09′ or we’ll be in the FA market at 1B again. There is enough in the system at 3B where one of them should be able to replace Beltre in 10′. They’re in good shape at C and loaded with OF’ers after this years draft. I’d guess they’d look for a few middle IF’ers in the next draft. I really liked the draft this year and Dunigan, Gallagher, and Hill appear to be doing well in Everett and Danny Carroll in Peoria. Is this Maximo Menendez in Peoria someone we should be following? It’s really going to be interesting to see who else pops out of the later round picks in future years. It finally looks like the farm system could produce quite a few ML ready players 2-3 years down the road. Is Casey Craig of any value?
I saw Mik pitch a couple of weeks back and the guy has some really interesting mechanics. He definitely gets the legs and trunk into it and doesn’t appear to be really heavy on the arm. His motion is almost Japanese with the full rotation of his torso. He seems to hide the ball well and really brings it up there.
The M’s look really stacked at RP with all the guys they have going now+ the guys coming back.
I’d love to see Morrow back down in AA working on starting - his command is just nightmarish and if we could get Lowe healthy or Reitsma healthy, I think we’d be pretty tough in the bigs with Morrow working on his secondary pitches in AA.
I’d be pretty stoked with a pen composed of:
JJ - closer
Sherrill - left set up
Healthy Lowe - righty set up
Reitsma
Green
O’Flaherty
I’m not sold on Davis… but he seems to be squeaking by. That guys mechanics are a mess. No balance at all
Also - can we try to close JJ 1+ innings a little less frequently ?
Green should have pitched into the 8th last night… he was MONEY in the 7th
AB-D is still in High A, correct? You’ve got him at AA.
Phillips that high? Really?
Care to elaborate on what you´ve heard about him?
Everything I´ve heard suggests he´s an exciting player who gets the most out of his tools, but there´s a long way to go between that profile in rookie ball and Dustin Pedroia.
Butler isn’t going to need surgery for the shoulder is he?
By the way, I’m kind of impressed with the way the depth in the system is turning out.
Yeah, the table was effed up… I hate html… fixing now. Thanks guys.
re: Phillips
I have just heard that he’s a good enough athlete to play a role in the big leagues. He has the work ethic already at 17, and if his learning curve follows suit, he could be useful.
He probably won’t be a regular, but they said that about Pedroia, too, when he was 17.
Re: Morrow
Feier started the year in the minors and is still probably going to pitch there more. Morrow is not. He’s a big leaguer right now and may never pitch in the minors, sans rehab.
Could Chen be the guy who allows the M’s to finally let Bloomquist walk after his contract is up in 2008? He looks like he’d be better as a hitter and it’s not like Bloomquist is a Gold Glove out there.
Jason,
Is there any chance that Morrow gets sent down this year to work on his command? And, who would you say is the better prospect, Saunders or Halman?
I think no on Morrow.
And Halman has the better tools, by far, but his inabilities at the plate as far as making consistent contact are glaring.
Saunders has the advantage at the plate because he’s performing.
And in the end, that matters more than ability. But, to be honest, I wouldn’t trade Halman for Saunders. Saunders isn’t likely a big league regular and though Halman’s risk is enormous, I’ll take the 1% chance that he’s the next Vernon Wells over the 25% chance that Saunders is the next Ben Grieve.
I think Chen could turn into that, yeah, but it’d take a patient manager because he’s not gonna go up and do it right away.
Well, Chen’s obviously going to have to spend all of 2008 in AAA because of his injury, but who knows what he might show in September 2008?
Is there someone who is responsible for Balentien’s improvement with pitch selection, or is it mostly of his own doing? Halman seems like he’s the same as 21-year-old Balentien.
Tui wheres the power? He never had any its all been on th come and he hasnt came yet and he proably wont.Why do i say this if he cant hit for pop in cal league he is in trouble period no matter how hard they push him.I was hoping for tui but it might be to tough of a game for him.?
Eh, he’s still just two and a half years into being a full-time baseball player, so I pretty much remove a year from his age and experience.
He’s come along way this year, but even if his pop maximizes, that may only get him to the 20-homer area, according to even the Mariners themselves.
That doesn’t say corner bat, and we know Tui can’t play short, second or center field…
Re: Halman
Except that Balentien wasn’t in short-season ball, even at 20, which is how old Halman is now.
Halman and Tui both went yard tonight, strangely enough. And so did AJ.
So, Jason, how do you think the organization compares to the rest of baseball right now?
Tillman threw a fantastic game tonight.. good for him
#8 - please tell me your list of potential 08 starters was not supposed to include Ramirez? There’s no WAY he’s going to be ready.
Alright Jason, PLEASE answer this for me. I’ve asked it various places, and no one seems willing to answer it, presumably because no one realizes they are repeating a fallacy.
Why does everyone keep saying Mangini’s power fell off between 06 and 07?
His line in 06 at NC State: .343/.409/.531. So that’s an ISO of .188. If you prefer counting stats he had 16 doubles, 4 triples and 7 homeruns.
His line in 07 at OK State: .332/.435/.531. For an ISO of .199. He posted 17 doubles, 2 triples and 9 homeruns.
So whether you like rate stats or counting stats, he actually had MORE power this year, though not by a significant amount. If anything I’d say his 06 and 07 are ridiculously similar.
So, why the almost universal blogosphere idea that Mangini hit for more power in 06 than 07?
Jason, what are your thoughts on Gallagher in Everett? I think you said he might have been a steal, and so far he’s been nearly perfect in Everett.
He doesn’t have a third start like Paredes does, but he’s pitched as well as or better than Paredes in his starts so far. Or does he have more to prove because of his crummy last season at Stanford?
I’m not Jason, but I can tell you that Gallagher has more to prove because of his crummy season, his age, and the hand he throws with.
Triunfel is back!! Couple hits down in Zona today… Also, nice to see Mangini go yard.. He went 2-3 and also had 2 walks..