The InBox: May 15

Every once in awhile I get behind on the emails and the best way for me to get to them all and answer the same question all in one place is right here in one installment of The Inbox.

So, here we go.

Q: What’s the deal with Jeremy Reed? He kind of disappeared in the minors. Does he have a future in MLB or Seattle? What could the Mariners get for him if they were to trade him?

Thanks,

Sende

PI: Reed is doing fairly well with Tacoma, thanks to a recent hot streak that has brought his numbers to .280/.340/.411 with 13 extra-base hits, 14 walks and 20 strikeouts through the 7th inning of Tuesday afternoon game in Albuquerque. On May 8, Reed was hitting just .235 but is 12 for his last 24 to get back to his ways of bashing minor league pitching.

He’s been playing left field regularly, since Adam Jones is the future in center field, and has handled it well. Defensively, he still has some value in center, but proving he can deal with left field regularly is good for his future.

Reed has no future in Seattle and while I won’t completely close the door on Reed becoming an everyday player in the big leagues, he’s running out of time. He’ll be 26 this summer for a guy with little power and a bad offensive showing in the majors, there isn’t much value there as far as a trade goes. If dealt, he isn’t likely to bring back very much, but could very well be the second or third piece in a bigger trade.

There are still teams in the NL where Reed fits, Florida still being at the top of that list, as well as Cincinnati who is being forced to use Ryan Freel all over the diamond. The M’s could decide at some point soon that Reed and the club are better off if he’s dealt — just don’t expect to get much back.

Q: I’ve noticed Morse has been hitting for more power and a higher avg. Do you think physically and mentally it is starting to come together for him? Could he have a future in a MLB starting line-up? I’m excited to see the numbers Jones, Balentin and Morse are putting up but I’m just looking at boxscores.

Brent

Provo, Utah

PI: I don’t think Morse’s numbers are very surprising, to be honest, Brent. He’s hit for average in both of his big-league stints and power is always the last thing to develop. Obviously, the biggest question is whether he can accomplish similar things in the majors and the answer is probably a big giant NO.

I still think Morse’s future is as a reserve and for him to become valuable in that role, the pop has to become consistent. He’s shortened his stride at the plate to help him deal with the fastball to change-up combinations, which are generally the toughest to handle in the highest levels of the game. In opposite fashion of Wladimir Balentien, Morse has brought his hands down and in - also to aid in his efforts on the hard stuff.

Defensively he’s not very good at third, though not useless, and he probably grades about the same at first and in the outfield. While he has little range at short and his hands aren’t up to par to play the position, it’s still the spot where he excels the most, not surprisingly. Too bad he also hurts the club the most there, too.

The power he’s shown is nice to see and could be a sign that he’s turning a corner. He’s at 25-14 in the K/BB category, which isn’t horrible, but I’d like to see that even out a little bit more. I’d also like to see Morse pull the ball more regularly.

Q: I was wondering if you could give me a scouting report on Felix Hernandez? I remember reading the prospect reports on him, but now that he’s more established with almost two years of experience, how would a prospect report look on him?

Terrence

PI: I’ll try and keep this short, since a typical SR from me usually runs about 1000 words.

Felix’s strengths are in his plus-plus stuff, including a 94-98 mph four-seamer and a devastating two-seam offering with as much boring and tailing action as a Jarrod Washburn slider. Both pitches grade at or near an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale.

Hernandez’s command was very good in his first two starts, hitting his spots with the fastball as well as his curve, slider and the occasional change-up. He’s made big time strides with his command and clearly understands that a ground ball is a very good thing.

His overhand curve is among the best in the game and his slider, sometimes clocked at more than 90 mph, is probably his best pitch. Both breaking balls probably grade as an 80, while his change, still a work-in progress, has the potential to become an above-average pitch he can get a lot of swings-and-misses from.

If he develops the change into a regular option, he’ll probably be outlawed in baseball, due to far too many great pitches that give the hitters no chance at all.

Clearly the key is his health, and starting tonight we’ll get a good look at where he is in that area. Felix doesn’t have a lot of issues with his mechanics as some have said. The error, if you want to call it that, is that his delivery is naturally violent. There are things that can be done to somewhat curb the impact of his arm speed and the unnatural movements that exist in every pitchers physical actions.

Q: Why isn’t Michael Saunders thought highly of as a prospect? He draws walks, he runs well, bats left-handed… I don’t get it… Help?

Jesse

PI: He’s yet to sustain the kind of performance that warrants high praise, so until he does he won’t get it from me. But Saunders is a good athlete and runs well for a 6-4 kid. His swing is still too long but it’s clear that he knows what a strike is. His next step is to start destroying those pitches and taking a walk as the second best option.

He’s still young enough at 20 to develop into a solid prospect. Give him time to give me a reason to develop a man crush, eh?

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Draft Central 2007

It’s just about time to start thinking about the draft, since it’s a month away now and the rumors are starting to fly about who is going where and who may drop due to money demands and things of that nature.

The Seattle Mariners choose 11th, a year after owning the fifth overall pick and two years removed from drafting third. At this rate, the club will draft 21st a year from now - if they are extremely lucky to win that many games in 2007.

This year’s draft class is a strong one and is heavy on prep stars, both at the plate and on the mound. While the consensus No. 1 talent is Vanderbilt left-hander David Price, who grades right up there with last year’s crop that included Luke Hochevar and Andrew Miller.

After that, the top talents include Georgia Tech backstop Matt Weiters, Cypress, California prep star Josh Vitters, a third baseman, and 6-10 right-hander Andrew Brackman out of North Carolina State.

None of the three will fall to 11 where the M’s pick, but there are already rumors that a few of those expected to be top 10 picks were falling for various reasons, including the emergence of other talents in the 10-20 range.

It still remains likely that the Mariners will have the chance to select one of the following, listed here with their position, level and chances of being available at No. 11.

Preliminary Draft Board
PLAYER POS. B/T HT WT LEVEL No. 11
Matt Harvey
RHP R/R 6-4 195 HS 10%
Madison Bumgarner
LHP R/L 6-5 220 HS 10%
Rick Porcello
RHP R/R 6-5 190 HS 5%
Jason Heyward
RF L/L 6-2 200 HS 25%
Matt LaPorta
1B R/R 6-1 215 College 30%
Ross Detweiler
LHP R/R 6-4 180 College 30%
Matt Dominguez
3B R/R 6-2 190 HS 40%
Mike Moustakas
CIF/OF L/R 6-0 185 HS 50%
Blake Beavin
RHP R/R 6-7 210 HS 65%
Beau Mills 1B/3B L/R 6-3 205 College 50%
Daniel Moskos
LHP R/L 6-1 200 College 30%
Julio Borbon
CF L/L 6-1 190 College 40%

Others that will get consideration include RHP Michael Maine, OF Michael Burgess, 3B Matt Mangini and RHP Jarrod Parker, as well as any of the top 10 that fall.

LaPorta (right) has very little leverage, so he’s probably as signable as any Scott Boras client in recent memory, though Boras has had success of late with sending guys to the indy leagues and back into the draft the following year. This is where RHP Max Scherzer could come into play, though I’m not sure he makes a lot of sense for the M’s at No. 11. Scherzer has yet to sign with Arizona and is back in the independent circuit to raise his value this June.

If Arizona fails to sign Scherzer, the right-hander with a mid-90s heater could go anywhere from 7th to 20th in this year’s draft, though some club may see him as a safe bet and pop him in the top five, though that is unlikely unless the money scenario favors the club, like it did with Hochevar last June with the Royals.

Right now I’m endorsing Jason Heyward (top, left) and Madison Bumgarner the most, considering how likely it is that they reach the 11th slot and their potential and risk factors. Heyward has been compared to Fred McGriff offensively, but is far more athletic and should be able to play in either corner of the outfield. His left-handed power stroke is just what the Mariners need to stock up on.

Bumgarner may be snagged in the top eight or so with his 92-95 mph fastball and the upside of Scott Kazmir or Cole Hamels.

I like Harvey and Porcello a little bit better than Bumgarner, as they have more polished secondary stuff with equal velocity, but it doesn’t look like either will fall to 11. If the draft was today, I’d bet on the Mariners taking Heyward, Detweiler or Bumgarner, which would be more than fine with me.

If it were up to me, I’d make sure I snagged a bat there, though, as Bumgarner, and even Porcello and Harvey, are bigger risks being pitchers.

I might even prefer Mills over Bumgarner.

But, like they did a thousand times a year ago, things can and will change.

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Are the Mariners For Real?

So they’ve won four straight series, if you count the one-game set in Texas, and are victorious in seven of their last eight games…

Hee haw? Or, so what?

I’m riding the fence on this one.

Yeah, the starting rotation has tossed a lot of zeros onto the scoreboard for the opposition in that eight-game span. And no, it’s not meaningless that it was up against Oakland and Kansas City, as well as a struggling White Sox lineup.

But the M’s pitching staff isn’t necessarily for real just yet, and that includes the bullpen. When healthy, we know what Felix can bring to the table. Washburn is what he is, which is sometimes solid, sometimes mediocre, sometimes awful and even sometimes pretty good. It appears that Miguel Batista is settling in as the club’s third most reliable starter.

Horacio Ramirez could sustain a serviceable level of performance - if he can find a way to miss a few more bats - and Cha Seung Baek for Jeff Weaver is a great trade-off that will eventually happen permanently.

But is all of that good enough?

It might be. The first-place Angels swept the Mariners last week and really pounded the starters in the three-game set. But they have problems of their own, such as the fact that the front office is counting on Bartolo Colon to stay as good as he’d been before Tuesday’s mediocre start… here’s a hint Bill Stoneman, he won’t, and the reason why is the same exact reason why the big brown bear crashes the camp sight…

He’s hungry, and the smell of barbecue makes his tummy grumble.

The Mariners bullpen has been terrific thus far, particularly with the emergence of Brandon Morrow over his past four outings where the 22-year-old has fanned eight and walked four in 6 1/3 scoreless innings.

Chris Reitsma had a streak of six straight scoreless appearances snapped when he gave up three hits and a home run versus Kansas City last Friday.

George Sherrill had retired 19 straight betters before Tadahito Iguchi singled in the eighth inning on Wednesday. Sherrill has tossed 7 1/3 shutout innings and has allowed just two hits.

Julio Mateo still sucks, but if he’s on the roster, we can’t get ticked at Grover for using him as long as it’s in situations he’s been used in lately — more than a 4-run lead or deficit, or very early in a game where the starter was knocked out due to injury or mass ineffectiveness.

Mateo has pitched in just two games this season in which the Mariners have won. That isn’t an accident in any manner. He’s either blowing it, or he’s being used in blowouts.

Sean White has pretty much done what most expected him to do, which is show some signs of being a big-league reliever and also struggle and prove that he’s inexperienced and should be in Triple-A. But as long as he isn’t asked to do things outside of his talent, there isn’t a lot to complain about, though Jake Woods is a more reliable option.

Left-hander Eric O’Flaherty has thrown 4 1/3 scoreless innings since being called up two weeks ago, and is showing signs of becoming a legitimate late-inning relief option.

What does all of this mean?

Nothing, really, because the biggest concern for this club is still NOT the pitching, it’s the offense. It’s an offensive game these days and I know all of the experts and amateur analysts say pitching is where it’s at, the fact remains that the M’s haven’t many bats that can hit good pitching - if any at all.

The Angels have Vlad, Texas has a few guys in Michael Young and Mark Teixeira and the Red Sox and Yankees are hording a half-dozen of these bats each.

All is not lost on the Mariners offense, however, as there are bright spots, including the Jose’s. Vidro, Guillen and Lopez are a combined 40-for-116 for a .345 average, including five doubles, five home runs, 12 RBI and 17 runs scored since April 20.

While Richie Sexson slowly climbs out of a serious April slump that saw the slugger hit just .145 with 17 strikeouts, he does have 10 extra-base hits, nine walks and a 15 RBI to show for his efforts.

Adrian Beltre had a better April this time around than he’s had in the previous two season in Seattle, hitting .244 with a .378 slugging ( I know, not good), versus the .189 and .233 slugging he posted a year ago.

Raul Ibanez is going to hit, and he’s already showing that with eight hits in his last 20 at-bats, so no worries there. But as a whole, the M’s are missing a piece or two in that lineup. They still get held to less than four runs by pitchers that have no business doing so.

The offense needs more help.

Aaaaand, they are obviously missing a guy in the pen and at least one starting pitcher, too.

In light of their recent success, I don’t want to shove it aside and ignore it. Wins are wins in this league and the M’s are in no position to get picky, and neither is anyone pulling for them.

But it’s just a month in and I still sit in the chair labeled “wait and see.” I’ll buy into it after they scream through the next 13 games and come out with a .500 or better record. Heading to Boston, New York and Detroit and then hosting the Yankees… not an easy two weeks, no matter how bad the Yankees starting pitching has been.

So how good are the 2007 Seattle Mariners?

Ask me again in two weeks, and I’ll have a much better response.

Notes: Ichiro began play Wednesday as the active leader in batting for the month of May at .370… The M’s lead the majors in hitting after the 6th inning and have outscored their opponents 43-22 during innings seven, eight and nine… Those 43 runs scored after the 6th represent 43.8 % of all the runs plated by the Mariners this season… Backup catcher Jamie Burke has hit safely in all six games in which he’s had an official at-bat… Rene Rivera, last season’s backup backstop, didn’t collect his sixth hit of the year until June 25.

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