Every once in awhile I get behind on the emails and the best way for me to get to them all and answer the same question all in one place is right here in one installment of The Inbox.
So, here we go.
Q: What’s the deal with Jeremy Reed? He kind of disappeared in the minors. Does he have a future in MLB or Seattle? What could the Mariners get for him if they were to trade him?
Thanks,
Sende
PI: Reed is doing fairly well with Tacoma, thanks to a recent hot streak that has brought his numbers to .280/.340/.411 with 13 extra-base hits, 14 walks and 20 strikeouts through the 7th inning of Tuesday afternoon game in Albuquerque. On May 8, Reed was hitting just .235 but is 12 for his last 24 to get back to his ways of bashing minor league pitching.
He’s been playing left field regularly, since Adam Jones is the future in center field, and has handled it well. Defensively, he still has some value in center, but proving he can deal with left field regularly is good for his future.
Reed has no future in Seattle and while I won’t completely close the door on Reed becoming an everyday player in the big leagues, he’s running out of time. He’ll be 26 this summer for a guy with little power and a bad offensive showing in the majors, there isn’t much value there as far as a trade goes. If dealt, he isn’t likely to bring back very much, but could very well be the second or third piece in a bigger trade.
There are still teams in the NL where Reed fits, Florida still being at the top of that list, as well as Cincinnati who is being forced to use Ryan Freel all over the diamond. The M’s could decide at some point soon that Reed and the club are better off if he’s dealt — just don’t expect to get much back.
Q: I’ve noticed Morse has been hitting for more power and a higher avg. Do you think physically and mentally it is starting to come together for him? Could he have a future in a MLB starting line-up? I’m excited to see the numbers Jones, Balentin and Morse are putting up but I’m just looking at boxscores.
Brent
Provo, Utah
PI: I don’t think Morse’s numbers are very surprising, to be honest, Brent. He’s hit for average in both of his big-league stints and power is always the last thing to develop. Obviously, the biggest question is whether he can accomplish similar things in the majors and the answer is probably a big giant NO.
I still think Morse’s future is as a reserve and for him to become valuable in that role, the pop has to become consistent. He’s shortened his stride at the plate to help him deal with the fastball to change-up combinations, which are generally the toughest to handle in the highest levels of the game. In opposite fashion of Wladimir Balentien, Morse has brought his hands down and in - also to aid in his efforts on the hard stuff.
Defensively he’s not very good at third, though not useless, and he probably grades about the same at first and in the outfield. While he has little range at short and his hands aren’t up to par to play the position, it’s still the spot where he excels the most, not surprisingly. Too bad he also hurts the club the most there, too.
The power he’s shown is nice to see and could be a sign that he’s turning a corner. He’s at 25-14 in the K/BB category, which isn’t horrible, but I’d like to see that even out a little bit more. I’d also like to see Morse pull the ball more regularly.
Q: I was wondering if you could give me a scouting report on Felix Hernandez? I remember reading the prospect reports on him, but now that he’s more established with almost two years of experience, how would a prospect report look on him?
Terrence
PI: I’ll try and keep this short, since a typical SR from me usually runs about 1000 words.
Felix’s strengths are in his plus-plus stuff, including a 94-98 mph four-seamer and a devastating two-seam offering with as much boring and tailing action as a Jarrod Washburn slider. Both pitches grade at or near an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale.
Hernandez’s command was very good in his first two starts, hitting his spots with the fastball as well as his curve, slider and the occasional change-up. He’s made big time strides with his command and clearly understands that a ground ball is a very good thing.
His overhand curve is among the best in the game and his slider, sometimes clocked at more than 90 mph, is probably his best pitch. Both breaking balls probably grade as an 80, while his change, still a work-in progress, has the potential to become an above-average pitch he can get a lot of swings-and-misses from.
If he develops the change into a regular option, he’ll probably be outlawed in baseball, due to far too many great pitches that give the hitters no chance at all.
Clearly the key is his health, and starting tonight we’ll get a good look at where he is in that area. Felix doesn’t have a lot of issues with his mechanics as some have said. The error, if you want to call it that, is that his delivery is naturally violent. There are things that can be done to somewhat curb the impact of his arm speed and the unnatural movements that exist in every pitchers physical actions.
Q: Why isn’t Michael Saunders thought highly of as a prospect? He draws walks, he runs well, bats left-handed… I don’t get it… Help?
Jesse
PI: He’s yet to sustain the kind of performance that warrants high praise, so until he does he won’t get it from me. But Saunders is a good athlete and runs well for a 6-4 kid. His swing is still too long but it’s clear that he knows what a strike is. His next step is to start destroying those pitches and taking a walk as the second best option.
He’s still young enough at 20 to develop into a solid prospect. Give him time to give me a reason to develop a man crush, eh?


 
 
Interesting. I’ve always thought that Felix’s curve and his change are his two best pitches. This is the first time I’ve heard that his change is still developing. Maybe it’s the slider that Niehaus, et al, are calling a change that’s the cause for my confusion…
Uhh, Paul. Don’t EVER listen to Niehaus call pitches. He’s the worst in the universe at it, not that it matters.
He often calls curve balls change-ups, and change-ups sliders and sliders “two-seamers”…
I bet he makes that mistake a third of the time that a non-fastball is thrown and he IDs the pitch.
It’s kinda funny.
Felix’s slider is ridiculous. His curve isn’t far behind. I can’t think of another pitcher in the game that has both a true curve and a true slider that are anywhere near this good.
But then again, Felix has the best stuff in the game, so it shouldn’t be surprising.
Right. I completely suck at pitch recognition, and still I’d probably call ‘em more correctly than Niehaus at this point in time. I love the dude ferociously, but it’s not because he’s an accurate game caller.
I knew Felix’s slider and his curve were his best pitches, and I thought his changeup was supposed to be pretty wicked, too (and not just based on Niehaus). And, while still pretty much awesome, his fastballs are inferior to his other pitches. This is the first time, though, that I’ve heard his change is still “a work in progress” and hoping to become “an above-average pitch” — just adjusting my brain, I suppose. That’s all…
I just remember last year where everyone sat fastball and pounded the crap out of him. This year, not so much, so far. I’m hoping that doesn’t change tonight. While the slider may be sitting on the same shelf that Putz’s splitter is sitting on, I’m wondering how much of the curveball he’ll use, too.
Change-ups are almost always a work-in-progress, particularly for younger pitchers because it’s much tougher to master.
It’s a feel pitch, rather than a let it fly type deal, or a pitch based solely on grip and arm speed.
It’d be like trying to hold your fork with your pinky and ring finger instead of using your thumb, middle and forefinger. You could do it, but you’d probably stab some plate half the time. But once you got a feel for it, you might be able to get through a bowl of broccoli.
That is the oddest analogy I have ever heard. very nice work
I’ve always wondered why a changeup was hard to master. I always thought you could just grip it and throw it with fastball arm action.
I am going to try and eat like that and see what happens.
I agree with Morse but i think he will have to go to the N.L. to get this chance he fits better over there with PH oppurtunitys double switches and other moves.This guy keeps improving but he will not get the chance here because jobs are on the line and rookies wont get there chances.Right wrong are indiffrent those are the facts.I think he could play as good are better then dobbs is for the phillies they are similar type players multiple positions and both can hit and both never got a fair shake here but thats life.
well jason u called it sorta close
felix will be replaced by sean white..but i doubt he’ll blow the lead
Except Dobbs has a sweet swing… LOL
Niehaus’ strength is not in calling the game, it’s in the way he calls a game. He doesn’t make every single sound like a home run, his voice projects the importance of any particular play. It’s a shame he’s never had the ability to call a world series, I think he would have nailed it the way few broadcasters can (and Buck the Younger certainly hasn’t). Admittedly, Dave’s play-by-play has diminished in quality over the last few years, but he is still able to ignite the fans with his calls.
I never really questioned it but why has Rizzs been banished to the radio only side of broadcasting?
Yeah leftys swings are very sweet especially his.Does Morse have any options left?
forget about rizzs how about the travesty of not having ron fairly calling the games!!!
Looking at the Mariners 25-man, it doesn’t seem like there will be a lot of oppportunity for youngsters (outside of Adam Jones) next year. If the Mariners finish slightly above .500 on the year what are the odds that the M’s maintain that status quo and we enter the next season with largely the same people?
Also, Jason; Don’t you have a Felix SR archived somewhere?
I’m almost certain I remember seeing one ages ago when he was pitching in Everett.
Yes, every year I did one, but now that he’s not a prospect…
So, how ’bout that Adam Moore kid. 4-4 last night. How are his catching skills?
Twice in the P-I I’ve called Moore the system’s sleeper prospect and he’s tearing the cover off the ball right now.
He projects as an average defender, which is fine if he’s going to carry an average to above average bat.
Hypotheticals:
Ichiro and Guillen are not on the ‘08 M’s. Jones and Balentien end up with similar lines as to what they have now. Do you put both of them in the starting M’s outfield? If you did, care to take a guess as to their lines?
Also, Balentien, with the M’s or traded by next year?
Twice in the P-I I’ve called Moore the system’s sleeper prospect and he’s tearing the cover off the ball right now.
Yep. Read that. Been somewhat gloating, too, since he was actually one of the guys I adopted last year over at SportSpot as my Adopt-a-Player (along with, of course, GS52 and Austin Bibens-Dirkx)…
I have no scouting abilities whatsoever, and I suck at the stats stuff. But the M’s should just hire me for my clear, (totally unrepeatable) psychic ability to sniff out the diamonds in the coal mines…
I don’t put both Wlad and AJ in the M’s outfield; that’s a lot to ask of two rookies… to produce on a team that is supposed to contend?
I’d trade Wlad in a bigtime hurry if he ended the season with the line he has now. If he was a lefty stick, I’d probably deal Jones in that scenario, as long as I got proper value.
In the end, I do think Wlad is either horded or traded by April 1, 2008. In fact, the money is on Balentien being traded within the next 12 weeks.
So is Ichiro, particularly when it comes to fulfilling a dream. “Once I turn 40,” he says, “I can become a pitcher. I’m kind of serious about it. But I’ll have to learn to throw a knuckleball. Right now, I could be a ‘normal’ pitcher,” who can top out at 95 mph with a fastball.
quote from ichiro on USA today
My thoughts too, JAC. Wlad seems like a guy who would get eaten up by Safeco.
I’d hope that his power potential would land us somebody better than a Broussard-level player though.
Wlad could get eaten up by Safeco, or he can learn how to hit, which it appears he’s taken a big step toward this season.
Glen Adams was the M’s roving hitting instructor until this season and his exact words on Wlad the last I talked to him was this:
“He just needs to learn how to hit and then we’ll worry about how his power fits into all of it. You can hit for all the power you want but if you aren’t making consistent contact, pitchers will find a way to minimize those long fly balls which means you’d become useless.
“Balentien can hit, he’s just still learning how to do it… all the tools are there. He’s already a power hitter, we’re just trying to turn him more in the direction of hitting in general. Shorten that swing and adjust the approach, just don’t lose focus.”
That was about a year ago this week, too. May 22.
I would imagine that Wlad is part of a big trade that lands the M’s a pitcher. We’ll probably be disappointed in what Bavasi brings back for him, but if Wlad, Feierabend and Rob Johnson can fetch a re-signed Jason Jennings, Chad Qualls and Luke Scott, the M’s might just have to bite. It might even make sense to deal Sherrill, though that isn’t likely for another year.
Of course, Jennings’ elbow injury may kill that idea, but something like that might make sense for Seattle considering their outfield and bullpen sutuation going into 2008; i.e., Morrow the STARTING PITCHER, Mateo sent to Santo Domingo on a raft made of swiss cheese and warm pink yarn and the club’s plethora of left-handed relief pitching.
They like Feierabend, but they want and need reliable starters now, and Ryan may not become such for a few years down the road.
We’ll see which direction they go, and I’m actually pretty optimistic about what may happen at the deadline this year.
Colina in HD?
They couldn’t have come up with a journeyman that could fill in to avoid rushing an 18 year old to high-A?
Or do they already consider him an organizational guy they’re not worried about rushing? If so, it’s pretty damn weird to give him one of the team’s visas at the age of 18.
i dont see Marquise Liverpool on any roster..is he still in the organization?
Short-season rosters aren’t out yet, and I’m pretty sure his release hasn’t been reported in the BA minor league transactions.
The fact that he hasn’t made full-season ball in his 3rd season is a pretty telling indication of the organization’s opinion of him.
Liverpool is no longer in the organization.
Re: Colina
He already had a visa, hence him being used in this scenario. I don’t think they LOVE him, anyways.
Why did the chose to get rid of Liverpool?????
It was a number of things. Some off the field.
oh..
he was one of my favorite minor leagues
him, greg halman, mike saunders..those speedy time ppl
i’m a big fan of speed
i’ll take a guy who’ll steal 45 stolen bases over some1 who’ll hit 30 homers n e day
Really … that seems … highly illogical.
So, you would rather have Corey Patterson rather than Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, Mark Teixeira or Justin Morneau.
Jason
Will RRS get another call up before September and actually get to pitch in bigs ?
How often does a guy get added to a major league roster for the first time and then get optioned back to the minors without making an appearance ?
Can you confirm that Brad Thomas has been released by Seattle ?
Thanks
Dave Cairns - Sydney, AUS
Barring injury, RRS is probably delegated to a September cup of java.
And that happens to players sometimes. It just depends ont he circumstances. He wasn’t needed but for a few days and the opportunity to pitch didn’t come up.
He’ll get a chance sooner or later.
I haven’t heard whether Thomas was released or not… team is back in town today, if the news hasn’t come out publicly by this afternoon, Dave, post another question about it… Because I’ll be at Cheney tonight with the club.
NO MORE MATEO!!!
:D
Now if we could only get rid of the dope who kept putting him in games…
Why can’t Clement be hitting as well as Moore?
I’d have to agree that Wlad is on the block. Especially now that Guillen is producing. It’ll be hard for Bavasi to turn down that $9 million option for next year if Guillen ends up with an .800 OPS at the end of the year. Balentien will be out of options too, which will prevent the M’s from stashing him away in AAA any longer.
Feierabend, however, I hope sticks around. I’m really doubtful that any SPs of quality will be around at the trading deadline. Teams like the Astros could very well still be in contention by then and the real cellar-dwellers have nothing to offer at all.
Our GM needs to realize that age and experience is really becoming more and more irrelevant. Baek, Feierabend, Blackley, Lehr, and Campillo could all likely have been at least as effective as Weaver, Batista, and Ramirez have been thus far.
Bavasi won’t likely be the one deciding between Guillen and Wlad or any other farm hand.
37: Tacoma vs. High Desert may have something to do with it.
PCL vs. Cali League might, too.
Clement´s not doing as poorly as his line suggests. He´s walking, hitting for power (50% of his hits are XBHs), and not striking out too much. He´s getting unlucky with his singles. He´s still not doing everything he´s capable of, but even if he doesn´t improve at all, that batting line should come up plenty as the season wears on.
Oh, and he´s still all kinds of talented. Be worried if he goes all season without hitting, but not until then.
patterson over ibanez ya..
not Mark Teixeira or Justin Morneau
i jus like stolen bases
It seems the PTBNL going to Cleveland is Gregorio Rosario.
Who?
Goose, http://mariners.scout.com/2/499118.html
Most likely not the case, but this has the makings of a Liriano-type deal.
Maybe I’m looking at things differently, but it doesn’t make that much sense to me at least for the Mariners to clear out the already depleted farm system to acquire another pitcher who potentially may have a substantial contract on top of all the money Bavasi has spent this last off-season on bums. Wouldn’t it be like Bavasi admitting that all the money spent and all his moves this off-season to acquire starting pitching were failures. Adding more payroll just doesn’t seem like something that would help Bavasi keep his job. The way I see things is that even if the Mariners re-sign Ichiro, there are still 2 holes in the outfield. As much as I like Raul, I really have no faith at all with him fielding any position on the field and would rather see him DH and Vidro being moved since the guy produces no offense at a position that should be producing offense at least at a moderate level. Yeah Vidro hits .300, but that’s the most hollow .300 I have ever seen in terms of overall offensive production, he doesn’t run well, can’t lay a bunt down to save his or his mothers life, and has shown no signs that the guy can hit for any sorts of power, I swear he’s the biggest rally killer ever, he has to be hitting like .800 when the other team needs a clutch out. But then again were talking about Bavasi, the guy couldn’t trade a dollar bill for 4 quarters. He would end up getting 2 pennies and a Canadian dime at best (nothing against Canada). Honestly, my biggest concerns are with the offense, and would rather see a move be made for someone who can help secure the middle of the lineup. It just seems like the only reasons the Mariners do show flashes of a good offense is because pitchers and teams don’t really fear anyone in the lineup and which explains why some of the better pitchers get caught off guard, but this is just my speculation. I’m just not sold on the offense, and the team for that matter, it just seems like the team is being built backwards. Also having Hargrove doesn’t help the cause either, I wouldn’t mind trading Wlad, Feir, and Johnson for a new skipper.
Jason,
Would Wlad, Feir, and Johnson be enough for the Marlins to trade Willis if things don’t improve soon for them? It just seems that those 3 would fit nicely with there team and even though Willis’ Era is a little high right now, he’s still fairly young and would look to fit nicely at the top with Felix.
Information sought on an unknown PTBNL leads people to turn up an ITP article I wrote a year and a quarter ago. Huzzah!
Why would you want to trade Wlad or Feir? Wlad will fit nicely in right field next year and Feir could be a dependable 4th or 5th starter.
Wlad, to me, is a younger version of Guillen who will be paid about 8 million less than him next year if the M’s pick up his options. The team needs to let these youngsters play because we aren’t that close to a world series contender to be filling in the gaps with veteran “proven” players who are somehow left on the market.
Every year the M’s try to use bubble gum to stop a leak. Maybe the way to go is for youngsters instead of veterans. See Braves in 2006.
Jason
Any word on Brad Thomas’ release now that the team is back in town ?
Thanks dude.
Ozzie, I agree that we should try and build from within. In all honesty I wouldn’t want to trade any of our prospects, and hope Wlad and Feir stay but taking into consideration the type of moves that have been made the last couple of years by Bavasi the possibility of more prospects being moved seems inevitable. Cabrera for Eduardo Perez, Choo and Nottingham for Broussard, Snelling and Fruto for Vidro, (wow just realized Bavasi likes to trade away young athletic position players for bench quality first baseman) Blackley for Ellison, Soriano for Horacio Ramirez and I’m not even going to mention all the horrible free agent acquisitions. In essence I’m just trying to imagine up the best possible trade outcome so I can stay positive. I hope for a trade for someone like a young Dontrelle Willis but have a pessimistic feeling with Bavasi’s skill at acquiring players the Mariners will end up getting a Kei Igawa and all his financial burden for the whole farm system.
How can you get on bumbling bill are 3 hole hitter who he traded yoda and fruto for has 5 extra base hits and 9 rbi on may 18th hitting in the 3 hole.If that doesnt turn you on look at those 2 free agent pitchers he picked up and the one he gave one of the better setup man around for.This guy really really knows nothing about baseball talent what so ever.So the question is why is he still here does anyone have a clue ?I sure the hell dont.
Jason, is Moore padding his numbers because of the home stats? I think you remember I was a bit interested in him when he was drafted.
I recall the time when he was drafted that we spent little time talking about it in a chat room. Back then, you had a wait and see approach - I think because his college offensive #’s was from a weak division and questions about his defense.
While I know it’s still too early, are there signs that his bat might be his ticket to the big club?
Some splits for Moore:
Home .341/.408/.568
Away .232/.309/.536
vs LHP .267/.351/.700
vs RHP .277/.344/.494
51: Moore’s home OPS is .976, and his road OPS is .845. But literally 3 days ago or so, his road OPS was about .600 (check MiLB splits quick!). He went on a bit of a HR binge last week - he’s got HRs in three straight games, all of them at Visalia.
Moore’s bigger splits are LH/RH, but that’s probably to be expected. And they’re still probably less extreme than Johjima’s!
Dave Cairns: Brad Thomas is still listed on the Tacoma roster; where’d you hear he’s been released? That’d be short-sighted - his peripherals are great. A K:BB ratio of 3.5:1 and a GB ratio of 5.17:1!!! That’s outstanding. He’s been unlucky, that’s all. He’s got pretty extreme splits, and with O’Flaherty and Sherrill both doing well in Seattle, his future’s probably in another org. But who knows…
Re: 52
The Baseball America transaction register says that he was released, for whatever reason. It’s not the first time they’ve done something like this, but seeing as how they’re on of the few major news sources that reports on this kind of thing, it’s cause for some consideration to a lot of people.
And, according to the R’s site — Brad Thomas is listed as tonight’s SP. I’m sure I’ll get some shots, Dave, since I’m going to be in Cheney tonight…
Yeah, I’m at Cheney now and Big Brad is here. The confusion may have began when the M’s had to rework Thomas’ contract or he was taking off to Korea to pitch. So he was released and re-signed on the same day.
Thanks for that snippet, Curto.
Any suggestions on who should get the first PI interview of the year?
Not including managers and coaches, because I will be talking to them anyways.
Jones? Feierabend? Clement?
Others?
Clement would be a good choice, I would also be interested in reading about Balentien just to see what his thoughts are on his sudden development and the process he went through to get to where he is at now.
Balentien!
or Triunfel
Although I have no clue how good Balentien’s english is so maybe that wouldn’t be a good idea, but I wouldn’t know.
Clement or Balentien would be good choices.
Ok, well, Clement or Bally will have to come tomorrow… I got caught up in an hour+ conversation with a coach.
Anybody know anything about Thomas Johannesen-Ellis other than he’s a 19 year-old 6-4 RHP out of Australia and why he’s in Tacoma?
He’s in Tacoma filling out a roster spot… he won’t be on the roster long.
Jones.
Im confused did we really trade a decent prospect in Blackley for a guy to have 3 at bats on may 19th?Dont we have a guy in the system who can play defense and get 3 atbats that wouldnt have cost us a player?Maybe im to hard on bumbling bill but man he makes bad decisions.I dont know if Travis will be a good M.L. pitcher but he is lefthanded and is having success in fresno in the 2nd year after surgery and thats when most things happen for guys coming off surgery i think.
Jason,
I just read on Baseball America that they predict Andrew Brackman will go to the M’s. What do you think about that? I hope that’s not the case. I really think he’s an injury waiting to happen because he’s not use to this workload.
I personally like Matt Harvey alot and I wouldn’t mind Jason Heyward (or however you spell that).
It isn’t Bavasi’s fault that Ellison hasn’t gotten many at bats.
Jason, Is there something wrong with Tony Butler’s mechanics? 6 walks in the first 2 innings of tonights game…i think theres something
well well well…guess whos in the lineup cujo
Look he can hit!1-1 call it a night ellison..lol..You should get your next start june 16th.lol
Greg, Butler has had command issues his entire pitching life. He’s got adjustments to make.
Check out Butler’s Scouting Report for more.
For what it’s worth, I had a very vivid dream last night that David Price fell to number 11 due to supposed outrageous bounus demands, but then signed quickly for slot money. The m’s were for once the talk of draft town! Needles to say, I was very dissapointed to wake up and find out it was a dream.
Jason,
With short seasons starting in less than a month, do you see any of the propects like Hallman or Liddi being moved back to Everett?
Crok daddy i got some old Marylin Chambers videos for you to look at to make your dreams better..lol
Mutt,
No… The pitching is typically more experienced and sometimes more advanced in Everett than it is in Wisconsin, since most of the arms there are recently drafted college pitchers while many of the arms in the Midwest League are prep arms drafted a year or two ago…
Jason:
What’s the word on why Dave Lewis got fired? This news saddened me greatly today.
Also - Mateo. Just…why?