It’s just about time to start thinking about the draft, since it’s a month away now and the rumors are starting to fly about who is going where and who may drop due to money demands and things of that nature.
The Seattle Mariners choose 11th, a year after owning the fifth overall pick and two years removed from drafting third. At this rate, the club will draft 21st a year from now - if they are extremely lucky to win that many games in 2007.
This year’s draft class is a strong one and is heavy on prep stars, both at the plate and on the mound. While the consensus No. 1 talent is Vanderbilt left-hander David Price, who grades right up there with last year’s crop that included Luke Hochevar and Andrew Miller.
After that, the top talents include Georgia Tech backstop Matt Weiters, Cypress, California prep star Josh Vitters, a third baseman, and 6-10 right-hander Andrew Brackman out of North Carolina State.
None of the three will fall to 11 where the M’s pick, but there are already rumors that a few of those expected to be top 10 picks were falling for various reasons, including the emergence of other talents in the 10-20 range.
It still remains likely that the Mariners will have the chance to select one of the following, listed here with their position, level and chances of being available at No. 11.
| Preliminary Draft Board |
|||||||||||||||||||
| PLAYER | POS. | B/T | HT | WT | LEVEL | No. 11 | |||||||||||||
| Matt Harvey |
RHP | R/R | 6-4 | 195 | HS | 10% | |||||||||||||
| Madison Bumgarner |
LHP | R/L | 6-5 | 220 | HS | 10% | |||||||||||||
| Rick Porcello |
RHP | R/R | 6-5 | 190 | HS | 5% | |||||||||||||
| Jason Heyward |
RF | L/L | 6-2 | 200 | HS | 25% | |||||||||||||
| Matt LaPorta |
1B | R/R | 6-1 | 215 | College | 30% | |||||||||||||
| Ross Detweiler |
LHP | R/R | 6-4 | 180 | College | 30% | |||||||||||||
| Matt Dominguez |
3B | R/R | 6-2 | 190 | HS | 40% | |||||||||||||
| Mike Moustakas |
CIF/OF | L/R | 6-0 | 185 | HS | 50% | |||||||||||||
| Blake Beavin |
RHP | R/R | 6-7 | 210 | HS | 65% | |||||||||||||
| Beau Mills | 1B/3B | L/R | 6-3 | 205 | College | 50% | |||||||||||||
| Daniel Moskos |
LHP | R/L | 6-1 | 200 | College | 30% | |||||||||||||
| Julio Borbon |
CF | L/L | 6-1 | 190 | College | 40% | |||||||||||||
Others that will get consideration include RHP Michael Maine, OF Michael Burgess, 3B Matt Mangini and RHP Jarrod Parker, as well as any of the top 10 that fall.
LaPorta (right) has very little leverage, so he’s probably as signable as any Scott Boras client in recent memory, though Boras has had success of late with sending guys to the indy leagues and back into the draft the following year. This is where RHP Max Scherzer could come into play, though I’m not sure he makes a lot of sense for the M’s at No. 11. Scherzer has yet to sign with Arizona and is back in the independent circuit to raise his value this June.
If Arizona fails to sign Scherzer, the right-hander with a mid-90s heater could go anywhere from 7th to 20th in this year’s draft, though some club may see him as a safe bet and pop him in the top five, though that is unlikely unless the money scenario favors the club, like it did with Hochevar last June with the Royals.
Right now I’m endorsing Jason Heyward (top, left) and Madison Bumgarner the most, considering how likely it is that they reach the 11th slot and their potential and risk factors. Heyward has been compared to Fred McGriff offensively, but is far more athletic and should be able to play in either corner of the outfield. His left-handed power stroke is just what the Mariners need to stock up on.
Bumgarner may be snagged in the top eight or so with his 92-95 mph fastball and the upside of Scott Kazmir or Cole Hamels.
I like Harvey and Porcello a little bit better than Bumgarner, as they have more polished secondary stuff with equal velocity, but it doesn’t look like either will fall to 11. If the draft was today, I’d bet on the Mariners taking Heyward, Detweiler or Bumgarner, which would be more than fine with me.
If it were up to me, I’d make sure I snagged a bat there, though, as Bumgarner, and even Porcello and Harvey, are bigger risks being pitchers.
I might even prefer Mills over Bumgarner.
But, like they did a thousand times a year ago, things can and will change.
Jason,
Do see any top 15 to 20 prospect falling to the compensation pick we have between the first and second round. Could Mills slide that far since he comes from a more small college environment?
I would love to use our first 3-4 picks on position players to start building up those positions in our system.
Nice write-up.
Can you give a little insight on Borbon? The whole college/lefty/CF combo makes him intriguing as a quick fix.
Borbon broke his ankle early this year and isn’t 100% yet, but he’s drawn comparisons to Johnny Damon, among others.
He runs well, covers enough ground to play center field and offensively might be a little like Ichiro as far as his gap power goes.
But he’s drawn just two walks in 25 starts this season, and while he’s slugging over .470, I’m not sure he’s a lead-off hitter in the majors and since he doesn’t have the natural power to be a run producer, he might be somewhere between a scuffling Ichiro and a the current version of Luis Castillo.
That’s not a first-round talent.
However, there’s no way to tell how much his ankle has effected his game, though it appears that his running has been halted, as he’s got just 5 steals in 11 attempts.
He’s hitting just .306, but did bat .350 his freshman year and .366 last season. He does limit the strikeouts, though… just re-reading all of this he reminds of Corey Patterson.
I don’t think he’s a fit for Seattle in round 1. It’s tough when a kid gets hurt and it has an effect on his performance so much that his status is so up in the air.
is Kentral Davis a good fit?
sandwich pick maybe?
Re: Mutt
That’s tough to say, I don’t see a ton of guys that are going to strong-arm the team that drafts them, since so few clubs reach for a more signable player.
You can bet on very few things in the draft…
1. The Toronto Blue Jays won’t draft a HS pitcher in round 1.
2. The Florida Marlins will not take a college bat.
3. A few teams will reach for a more signable player, avoiding the Scott Boras clients
4. Some club will overdraft so poorly that we’ll get to clown them for a whole year. Last year it was Colorado taking Greg Reynolds with the No. 2 overall pick.
If he’s there at 52, they might consider him, but again, the Mariners need to get run producers and they would probably be better off BUYING FA table setters than doing the same with big bats.
Don’t ya think?
I hear it’s not impossible that Scherzer lasts until the sandwich round, but there is very, very little chance that he makes it to 52, so let’s kill that hope right now.
I can’t see how Philly passes him up TWICE in the sandwich round, and SF passing on him three times? Let alone the Mets, who have two sandwich picks, too.
I’m still betting that one of those teams in the 15-25 range gets him… maybe the White Sox at 25, the Dodgers at 20 or the Phillies at 19.
Yeah, I know, Ken Williams hates Scott Boras, but… that’s good value there.
And for the record, here’s the draft order. I’ll post this in a little more colorful manner later on.
1st Round
1. Devil Rays
2. Royals
3. Cubs
4. Pirates
5. Orioles
6. Nationals
7. Brewers
8. Rockies
9. Diamondbacks
10. Giants
11. Mariners
12. Marlins
13. Indians
14. Braves
15. Reds
16. Blue Jays (Frank Catalanotto, A, to Tex)
17. Rangers (Carlos Lee, A, to Hou)
18. Cardinals
19. Phillies
20. Dodgers (Julio Lugo, A, to Bos)
21. Blue Jays
22. Giants (Jason Schmidt, A, to LAD)
23. Padres
24. Rangers (Gary Matthews Jr., A, to LAA)
25. White Sox
26. Athletics
27. Tigers
28. Twins
29. Giants (Moises Alou, A, to NYM)
30. Yankees
Supplemental First-Round Picks
31. Nationals (Alfonso Soriano, A, to ChC)
32. Giants (Alou)
33. Braves (Danys Baez, A, to Bal)
34. Reds (Rich Aurilia, A, to SF)
35. Rangers (Lee)
36. Cardinals (Jeff Suppan, A, to Mil)
37. Phillies (David Dellucci, A, to Cle)
38. Blue Jays (Justin Speier, A, to LAA)
39. Dodgers (Lugo)
40. Padres (Woody Williams, A, to Hou)
41. Athletics (Barry Zito, A, to SF)
42. Mets (Roberto Hernandez, A, to Cle)
43. Giants (Schmidt)
44. Rangers (Matthews)
45. Blue Jays (Catalanotto)
46. Padres (Dave Roberts, A, to SF)
47. Mets (Chad Bradford, A, to Bal)
48. Cubs (Juan Pierre, B, to LAD)
49. Nationals (Jose Guillen, B, to Sea)
50. Diamondbacks (Craig Counsell, B, to Mil)
51. Giants (Mike Stanton, B, to Cin)
52. Mariners (Gil Meche, B, to KC)
53. Reds (Scott Schoeneweis, B, to NYM)
54. Rangers (Mark DeRosa, B, to ChC)
55. Red Sox (Alex Gonzalez, B, to Cin)
56. Blue Jays (Ted Lilly, B, to ChC)
57. Padres (Chan Ho Park, B, to NYM)
58. Angels (Adam Kennedy, B, to StL)
59. Athletics (Frank Thomas, B, to Tor)
60. Tigers (Jamie Walker, B, to Bal)
61. Diamondbacks (Miguel Batista, B, to Sea)
62. Red Sox (Keith Foulke, B, to Cle)
63. Padres (Alan Embree, B, to Oak)
64. Padres (Ryan Klesko, B, to SF)
65. Diamondbacks (have yet to sign 2006 first-rounder Max Scherzer)
Doesn’t Beau Mills bat left handed?
Is Heyward polished? does he have the tools to move quickly (OBP?)?
Yeah, he does, ryan, thanks. I forgot to switch it.
It’s hard to call a prep player polished… Heyward has the tools to move very quickly, and might end up a poor man’s Cameron Maybin offensively… not a poverty-stricken fella, just not Maybin.
He’s a bit like Jones, lil less athletic, more natural power, and of course, left-handed.
The sandwitch round looks a lot bigger than normal. It looks like it’s going to be the unofficial second round, so to speak. Do you think that because the compensation round is so big, that it’s going to thin out the second round a little bit?
Of course it will. How can it NOT?
Damn.
That’s 20 more picks than last year.
This sucks.
Why does it suck? The M’s have picks 11, 52 and 76 overall…
Last year they drafted 5, 49 and 81.
Not much difference, thanks to the comp pick from losing Meche.
Love how Rich Aurilia was “A” level and netted the Reds a high supplemental pick. Whodathunkit.
Jason -
Do you think that Corey Brown (OF - Oklahoma St.) will be available at pick #52? Whenever anyone mentions Oklahoma State, all I hear about is Matt Mangini - nobody every talks about Brown, but he’s absolutely killing the ball this year. His .367/.506/.808 line is similar (better, actually) to what Alex Gordon put up in 2004. He’s a left-handed hitter, has 45 BBs and 50 Ks (he’ll end up with more walks than Gordon’s ‘04 - but more K’s too) and he’s 17-19 in SBs. I don’t know anything about him defensively, but I’m guessing the fact that Mangini is at 3B and Brown’s already a corner OFer isn’t in his favor. But the bat’s legit, no?
The strikeouts are a pretty large concern with Brown, and actually, Mangini’s stock is slipping some and he could fall completely out of the first round unless a team wants a signable player.
Brown has a really long swing that might be too tough to transition to the wood bat in pro ball but he’ll get taken in the first half of day one, if not in the second round.
Someone is going to want to take a chance on a lefty stick with plus pop. Also, Brown is a pretty good right fielder with an above-average arm.
What’s funny about that OKST team is that neither Brown nor Mangini lead the team in hitting, nor are they second.
Senior 2B Tyler Mach (first day, 4th-7th round) is hitting .406 and Sr, LF Ty Wright (late first day) is hitting .441. Both have OBP’s near .500.
Mach is a Kentlake HS grad, and I believe he went to either Edmonds or Everet CC as well.
The thing about Mangini is that he’s more projectable physically, at 6-4, 220 pounds or so, and most believe he’s a legit 3B if he wants to be, but he’s quick enough and has the arm to play in the corners of the OF as well.
Numbers don’t usually tell the whole story, and the Brown v. Mangini comp is one of those cases.
Im hearing mills is more of a DH type that should come quickly.Porcello is supposed to be the man out there this year i hear he is nasty!
Re: Scherzer.
Why would he not be a good fit for the M’s? Is he not, talent-wise, up there with the other pitchers in this draft?
Personally, I think you can’t have enough good young arms in a system.
Scherzer is a lot like Morrow in that he very well could end up in the bullpen.
But the reason he’s not a great fit here isnt because he’s a pitcher… it’s the whole Scott Boras+money+signability crap.
You don’t think he’s lost some leverage? I don’t see him in quite the same boat as Hochevar.
I’m not much of a Scherzer fan because he looks like a late inning reliever demanding starter money. I guess thats pretty similar to what Jason just said. Scherzer is said not to have a very good secondary pitch. At least Morrow has one of those.
I agree with Adam about not having enough good young arms so I hope the get some this year but a good left handed power bat would be first on my wish list followed by some pitchers.
Just give me the best player available.
That said, even given the organization’s relative lack of a true impact bat, if I see two players of equal value/talent, I go for the pitcher.
Young pitching is the most valuable commodity in the game today.
No arguments there.
He’s in exactly the same boat as Hochevar.
Drafted lower than he should have been due to signability concerns, heads to the indy leagues in hopes that a team in the top 5 will pop him, knowing that all he wants is MORE than he was offered via slot last year.
Doesn’t mean it’s going to work out the same way, because Luke is better than Max, but they are in the same situation.
They are counting on teams in the top 5-10 being willing to snag him that high, pay him slot at that spot in the draft, which might save the team money (as another player with more leverage might demand slot+), as well as get Max more dough than AZ ever offers, which is close to slot for his lower draft position from last June.
I think he ends up getting a tad more than the top offer from AZ, but doesn’t get drafted in the top 15.
Re: Mills
Yeah, I hear he won’t stick at 3rd.
What I meant was - you could throw Hochevar in with the top pitchers in last year’s class and he’d fit right in. Scherzer seems to be a notch below the top pitchers in this year’s draft.
I dunno, Adam, I think Scherzer fits right in, just the way Morrow and Lincoln did last year.
But there are prep arms that come without the signability risks and with bigger upsides than some of the college arms. So the Harvey’s and the Porcello and Bumgarner’s of the draft are getting a lot more play, and rightfully so.
For the record, I don’t like Brackman at all.
Oh well, it just doesn’t seem like he’s getting nearly as much interest at the top as Hochevar was last year. I thought that might hurt him, leverage-wise.
I’ve read a couple of different bits on the draft which say Brackman is falling.
ESPN’s site is saying that ESPN2 is going to air the draft from 2:00pm ET - 6:00 pm ET. It will be interesting to see what kind of coverage they give.
Jason-
I was just wondering what your take on the draft being televised this year is? Should I bother to watch?
That will be aired June 7th.
I think that the M’s should take one of the high school pitchers in the first round (Beavan). I don’t like Dominguez, he has a very loopy swing with a huge uppercut. I rather see them take a kid named Kevin Ahrens. A switch hitting 3rd baseman with very quick hands and power potential in supplemental round or.
But if they took LaPorta or Heyward i wouldn’t be upset. If they do they should look at Greg Peavey or Chris Withrow with their next picks. I would like to see them continue to stock pile young arms.
The risk with similarly graded prep pitchers versus hitters is too much… if they are so closely graded on your board, you take the bat.
They’d be reaching for Ahrens or Beaven at 11.
I heard last night that they like Phillipe Amounte quite a bit, too.
televising the draft is good only because it makes it easier for people to follow it.
To be honest, I like the MLB radio version.
I don’t like the idea of commercializing it like the other two major sports already do.
Sure, it gets the game more exposure - at every level - but it also opens up a few cans of snake-like creatures.
And no, Adam, Max isn’t getting that kind of attention, because he’s not as good as Hochevar.
But their situations are exactly the same, as are there goals and intentions.
Well, last year they tried to do an MLB.com draft show, and it was a nice gesture, but I seem to remember it being a little hard to actively follow what was going on because they cycled through the picks so quickly. By the time they got around to the analysis, the tracker was usually four or five picks ahead.
Which is always going to be the case. The picks come awfully quickly in the MLB draft and there is no way to really evaluate as the picks are taken.
What MLBtv/radio is planning this year is the same idea, but with analysis on certain draft picks, and then a round up after each set of 30.
It’s still going to be tough to do, but at least they won’t be scrambling.
Jason,
Do you expect Porcello and Harvey to have signability issues since they are clients of The Prince of Darkness, I mean Scott Boras? The catch here for me is that they are high schoolers which I have always thought were more signable than college guys.
By the way, Ozzie,
Who is Chris Withrow?
I’ve heard about Greg Peavy and he would be my pick for the sandwitch round so I’m with you on that one.
Re: MLB Radio- Draft Coverage
I hope things don’t change too much…my favorite is always Tommy Lasorda piping in when the Dodgers come up to pick. Radio coverage sure beats the days when they only released the first round picks and then an alphabetical list later.
With the #11 pick the Seattle Mariners select…. I’m hoping Heyward is there
I meant Ahrens in the sandwitch pitch if you take a high school pitcher with the 11th pick. If you take a bat you take Peavy or Withrow. Ahrens has the ability to be is good as any of those coolege bats or even better. Switch hitting 3rd baseman with quick hands.
Withrow is a high school pitcher from Texas.
90-93mph fastball with a curve and changeup. All of his pitches he commands well, but they are not at the level of the other high school pitchers. But he is “polished” for a high school pitcher with good mechanics.
Jason, Kei Igawa was just shipped to the minors, the Yankees are apparently sick of him, why not take a stab at him and trade something like Mateo+Boucher for him and see if he sticks. A, would the Yankees take that, and B, would you make the trade?
We already have a better and cheaper version of Kei Igawa - Jake Woods.
I’m with Adam… Igawa has better stuff than Woods, but for that kind of money, I’ll pass.
Uh, yeah, and I’m quite certain Mateo’s pretty much sealed his MLB career fate for now. He’s got some distractions to take care of before anyone’d take a flyer on him. Oh, that, and the fact that he’s not a very good pitcher really, either…
That kind of money? Igawa is signed for 5/20. That’s a better contract than Batista, and 4 mil is a minuscule number in a 100 mil budget. Bavasi writes that off before breakfast in free agency.
why not a Broussard for Igawa trade
i’d play Broussard at first over Mienkiewicz or Phelps any day..
Jason,
do you think Kentral Davis will be there at #52? i think he has the chance to be a similar type of Adam Jones.
but lefty,
my bad jason u answered the Davis question already
sorry
Jason, is Triunfel injured again?
Igawa for 4 mil is ridiculous right now… we’re not talking about Igawa v. Batista, because Miguel is here to stay no matter what.
But Igawa over Woods? I dunno… Woods makes 3.56 mil LESS per year, and though his stuff isn’t quite as good, his command is better and he’d be here without a bunch of expectations.
Would I deal Ben for Igawa? Not right now I wouldn’t. It looks like those scouts who called Igawa a reliever might be right. Time will tell.
I mean, he was optioned to the minors, for crying out loud.
Willmore,
I have a call and an email in to find that out myself.
I’ll let ya know.
Igawa was sent to A Tampa. It’s obvious that the Yanks believe he has lots of work to do.
I don’t know if there is anyone on our big-league roster whom I would trade for Igawa.
And yes, I am mindful that both Weaver and Vidro are on the big-league roster.
nah, i’d deal Weaver or Mateo for him right now.
Neither are of any use the M’s now and won’t be in 2008… Igawa could.
How about Weaver AND Mateo for Igawa? Or for any player major leaguer. Or any minor leaguer. Or any drunk weekend softball player. Or for any little leaguer. Or for any girl’s tee ball player. Or for a dog who likes to play catch with a baseball. Or an autographed A-Rod ball. Or for an autographed Igawa ball. Or for a flaming bag of dog crap. Or for…
BTW, Slack, sorry I missed your question…
No, I don’t think either pitcher will drop very far, though one of them could fall to the M’s at 11.
But to be honest, I don’t see the M’s ultimately jumping in on a Boras client.
I really think they end up taking a Heyward, Amounte, or Bumgarner in the end.
Through May 6th
Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis-Clark State: .460 BA, 28 HR, 97 RBI, 81 Runs. 26 BB/17 K in 200 AB’s. 2-2 SB’s.
Matt LaPorta, 1B, .428 BA, 17 HR, 43 RBI, 37 BB/13K, in 145 ABs
I’m just looking for college hitters we have a shot at 11.
97 RBI in a college season is darned impressive…
LaPorta is a safer pick, but doesn’t fit the organization here all that much, considering he’s a right-handed 1B/DH.
If you are going to take a 1B/DH at 11, make sure he’s a great fit, because that’s awfully high to take a risky hitter with little to no defensive and base running value.
For Seattle, Mills>Laporta, by a hair.
Will Mills hit for a fairly high average or will he have the average of Richie Sexson?
He has much better plate skills than Sexson, just not the raw power potential.
Offensively, he’s a poor man’s Ryan Zimmerman, if you will.
The talk of cutting Weaver needs to happen now and needs to also include moving Ho to the pen. Follow that up with bringing Ry Feirabrand up and keeping Baek in the rotation when Felix is back or swap him with Campillo.
If Bavasi really wants to save his job now is not the time to save face. We all know the Soriano trade and the Weaver signing sucked. Make the moves and this could be a playoff team in our division.
What sucks is we can’t even send Morrow down to stretch out a little. Maybe we could if Huber was the same pitcher he was at the end of the year. Actually I think we could, Reitsma, O’Flaherty and Sherrill are strong enough to hold down the late inning setup for a few weeks.
Changes have to be made. The experiments did not work. Veteran entitlement does not work. We have a good team I can see we do, but we are absolutely SCREWED out of a chance of 2 wins every 5 days.
Not that Weaver and Ramirez are the answers, but are Baek and Feierabend?
I think not.
The big point about Feir and Baek and Woods isn’t that they are BETTER than Weaver and Ramirez, though it’d be hard not to be a little bit more effective, it’s that they are significantly CHEAPER… that was the point.
But that’s gone, the money and trade talent is spent. Now it’s about who is actually best. They can’t get back any of the cash they signed Weaver for, and they can’t reverse the Raffy-Ramirez deal.
Do you risk setting back Feierabend by thrusting him into the rotation when he’d benefit greatly from more time in AAA JUST to get slightly better than Ramirez, whom you owe 3 mil to anyways?
Not on May 9. In late June, maybe. July? Sure. But it’s awfully early to be taking those chances.
Woods makes more sense than Feir right now, but is he really that big of an upgrade? Not really. Woods over Ramirez and Baek over Weaver (once Felix returns) isn’t the difference between this club making the playoffs and going 78-84.
If the Mariners want to make the postseason, they’ll have to add to the rotation from outside the organization, and that’s going to be tough to do since the clubs with a little excess are worried about the health of their original five starters and aren’t going to trade their depth in May or June, and probably not even July.
The Dontrelle Willis’s of the world aren’t available unless you are offering up young, cheap talent in return, which Seattle hasn’t nearly enough.
You’d have to gut the system to get anywhere near an impact starting pitcher on the trade market.
The best Seattle may be able to do is Jason Jennings from a struggling Astros club, and then the M’s would certainly have to overpay for a free-agent to be.
And Brad Penny is not available, and would cost an absolute fortune, i.e., (Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, Ryan Feierabend) to pry him away right now.
Other starters that may become available include Philly’s Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia, Texas’s Kevin Millwood, Cleveland’sCliff Lee and Paul Byrd, San Francisco’s Matt Morris and Chicago’s Jon Garland, Javier Vazquez and Mark Buehrle.
Of course, these clubs will have to have fallen completely out of contention for them to be willing to deal most of these arms, and the ransom will be pretty hefty.
Yea I think you are right about Feierabend needing more seasoning in the minors. He does seem to have a bright future. I have a feeling he is going to get hot coming up just like he seemed to get hot last year.
It is just taxing watching this team run out the Weav and Horatio. The Weav must go while the Ho has a sinker and he just needs to find some command.
If were gonna be a .500ish team either way it does not hurt to try to run out Campillo, Baek, Woods, or even Lehr in an attempt to upgrade to replacement level until other options are ready (prospects or trade). Or we can just sit back and hope two guys who suck can somehow turn it around.
Jason,
is there reason for concern about Felix being setback again, or should we trust what the team is saying about his injury?
Never just take what’s being made public as the end-all, but they are openly playing this safe and there is definitely a chance that he doesn’t start on the 15th versus the Angels.
He’ll throw a pen session tomorrow or Friday and if he feels no pain or discomfort of any kind, he’ll make that start with a 75-90 pitch limit.
If he does feel something, he’ll rest for another week or so and start the process over, which is, rest, play catch on flat ground, short bullpen session, longer pen session, simulated game with around 50 pitches and then another pen session.
JP Arencibia’s stock has fallen a lot this year. Obviously they wouldn’t take him in the first round, but seeing as Fontaine’s already drafted him before, any chance they pop him if he’s around in the 1S?
Not the sandwich round, unless they see all of their top 50 go away…
They draft 52nd, and there are at least 5 players they wouldn’t take AFTER the first round, though they are considered 1st round guys by everyone, talent wise.
Arencibia is a second round talent, maybe they snag him then.
If he’s a second round talent, whoever drafts him in the second round is getting a steal. He’s had health issues this year and his stats are down, but he’s still a premium bat.
I haven’t talked to single scout who thinks Arencibia is a first-round talent.
That doesn’t mean he doesn’t get taken in the first, of course, with all the money/signability issues, but…
And I disagree that he’s a premium bat. I think he’s a plus bat at a premium defensive position, though, and more likely to catch than Saltalamacchia or Clement.
A year ago, Arencibia was front and center in the duscussion of the top 10 college bats in this year’s draft. He’s held in less regard now because of a poor junior season, but the talent’s there.
Most scouts aren’t stupid enough to fall for simply a poor season. if he’s not a first round talent this year and was a year ago, only two things can be true.
1. This year’s draft is so significantly better than last year’s that 2006 should be erased from the books, or…
2. Something with Arencibia has changed.
I’d bet on No. 2.
Jimerson is playing today for West Tenn, guess what, already has strikeout numero uno.
Are there any good lead-off type hitters in this draft, besides Borbon?
Dear God,
We have had a strained relationship which I attribute to my lack of faith in your divinity. I am sorry if this has offended you, and I will try to correct that minor character flaw of mine should you be able to explain to me the following.
Why, O God, have you cursed the Seattle Mariners fanbase with a mediocre club that perpetuates to showcase the luck of an Irishman with a pocketful of four-leaf clovers in one pocket and a Doom-inspired massacre of rabbit feet in the other pocket. This unwarranted run of success of the Mariners ball club has justified and fulfilled the enormous hubris of Mike Hargrove, Bill Bavasi and the executive offices of the Seattle Mariners.
Please, O God, in your kindness and fairness and cosmic justice, put a juju on the Mariners bats and a voodoo majambo on the Mariners staff (with the exception of Felix, who we all love). The utter and complete unfairness of having to endure another 80 win season is too much to bear. Such a season might be sufficient to keep give Mike and Bill another season with the team. If you, O God, have any mercy left in you, you will drive the Mariners into a 20 game losing streak that will see the aforementioned Mariners staff fired and replaced with competent personnel. Once the offending parties have left, grant the Marines fans a stretch run for the ages, propelling them to a first place finish and World Series win in the playoffs.
I beg, O God, should you exist, to hear my pleas and grant this one minor wish to the Mariners fan base.
PS: If you actually do exist, and I have only one wish, I’d prefer a controlling packet of shares in Microsoft, GE, Citigroup and ExxonMobil.
The biggest change is an unspecified back injury which has sapped his production last year. I’ve seen it called a strain, and it’s definitely not insignificant, but on natural talent, the guy’s an elite draft prospect. I, for one, would be ecstatic if the Ms nabbed him in the second round.
last year = this year
Elite? If he was truly elite, don’t ya think clubs would be all over this elite catching prospect in the top half of the first round?
Something is scaring them off and there has to be something REAL to it if all 30 teams are basically telling everyone the same thing…