I have no idea whether there is going to be a game here at Cheney Stadium tonight, but, if there is, I’ll be blogging from the box.

So far, game is on.

One note; infielder Yung Chi Chen is out for at least a week.

Double-A West Tennessee is at Jacksonville tonight where RHP Doug Fister gets his second start of the year and Matt Tuiasosopo, hitting fifth in the lineup tonight, is looking to continue a booming start to 2007.

Down in the Cal League the High Desert Mavericks visit Lake Elsinore. The Mavs’ pitching numbers are nightmarish… don’t look them up, I warn you.

The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers are in Cedar Rapids where second round pick Chris Tillman will get his first start of the season. He’s on a limited pitch count, but if he’s on he should go at least five innings.

Photo (Jeff Clement): PaulMPhotography

Among the hottest topics in Seattle Mariners land is the roster in Appleton, Wisconsin, and while it’s at least as new and exciting as a week-long cruise on a big white boat in prime time, it isn’t the story of the first six games of the minor league season.

Yeah, I know, Carlos Triunfel is really good and through his first 2 1/2 games he’s hitting .500 (4-for-8) with two steals at the age of 17… in a pitchers league, a pitcher’s park, with the weather hindering all whom don a uniform and in his first season in the states. It’s just a few games, but his talent is undoubtedly enormous.

But remember a couple seasons ago when the Mariners had a developing position player with untapped power potential and solid athletic skills?

And then remember how he hit for average in the Cal League last year and the front office decided to try their best to ruin his career by promoting him to Double-A at 20 years old when he clearly had no idea how to do anything but punch the ball to the opposite field with his annoying inside-out swing?

Matt Tuiasosopo’s status has faded over the past year but, without staring, check out the start he’s had in West Tennessee. In six starts he’s collected nine hits in 21 at-bats (.429) and he’s fanned just three times. More importantly, Tui has garnered five doubles - the first sign that the power may be coming.

He’s hit in all six games and has three multi-hit efforts, which is a good indicator or consistency, of course, but the extra-bases is what you want to see out of his bat. After slugging .218, yes, that is a Jose Vidro-like .218 slugging percentage, the local kid from Woodinville might be flipping the switch.

Only time will tell.

With the exception of Triunfel, who is hitting second for the Rattlers, the Wisconsin lineup has been invisible, particularly the kids in the middle of the order; Alex Liddi and Greg Halman.

Halman is 0-fo-10 with seven strikeouts, Liddi is 0-for-9 with five strikeouts and a walk . Neither will be eligible to order a Mack and Jack’s for a few years but they better turn it up a notch or they’ll be ordering their lunches from Pickletime Deli in Everett for most of the summer.

But again, it’s really early and that league is tough on bats, especially in April.

In Triple-A Tacoma Adam Jones is hitting the ball hard, doing it with power and has avoided the strikeout pill for the most part. His plate coverage appears to have improved somewhat and if he the 21-year-old can sustain his plate patience he could have a huge season with the bat.

Catcher Rob Johnson actually looks comfortable in the batter’s box, according to a Dodgers scout who was in Sacramento over the weekend. He appeared very uncomfortable last season, was completely overmatched and had virtually no chance to produce at the Triple-A level in 2006.

Johnson could be turning a little corner as well, which would be a welcomed sight, since he’s already known to have the skills to become a solid defensive major league catcher.

If you are paying attention to the box scores and wondering why Jeff Clement isn’t catching more, I can’t give you the correct answer. I can, however, tell you why it isn’t. It’s not because the club no longer believes he can catch. If that was true, he’d never catch and he’s caught three games thus far.

Yung Chi Chen has adjusted to Triple-A pitching thus far, hitting .417 through six games. He could prove useful to the big club within the next year or so.

Former M’s prospect Travis Blackley made his first start for Giants’ PCL affiliate Fresno, going five strong innings allowing just two hits and two walks. Blackley, who will visit Cheney Stadium next week, struck out seven.

One Major League Blurb: Is A-ROD on fire or what?

Under the Radar. That’s a term often used in baseball when an unknown commodity surprises many with his performance and begins to open some eyes after rotting invisibly for too long.

Well, Prospect Insider is refusing to allow one particular relief pitcher to remain under the radar of those who follow the Mariners farm system. Austin Bibens-Dirkx is a future major league reliever… and there’s nothing invisible about his stuff, or his future in the game of baseball.

Armed with a much better fastball than originally advertised, Bibens-Dirkx relentlessly attacks the lower half of the strikezone with his four-seam heater that sits in the 90-93 mph range, and has recently touched 94+, including his first appearance of the season on April 6 in which two of his nine fastballs hit the 95 mark.

After a lot of work this spring with the organization’s pitching brain trust to improve the downward plane on his fastball, the sidearmer’s arsenal spells doom for hitters that are looking to hit the ball on a line, or reach the gaps with a deep fly ball.

Brad Holman, Lance Painter, Pat Rice and Norm Charlton were all working closely with Bibens-Dirkx, who took well to his new mechanics and entered the season excited to prove to everyone that not only was 2006 not a fluke, but that he deserved better than his assignment to High Desert, the club’s Advanced-A California League affiliate.

Strengths: Bibens-Dirkx possesses plus command already and with a fresh adjustment in mechanics it appears the control is still impeccable. He’s very aggressive within the strikezone, has a lot of confidence in his fastball and has great deception in his arm slot, which is considered a low 3/4 to sidearm release.

The 21-year-old has been a sidearmer since day one, even while he played the infield through high school and into college, where he started his first game at Chemeketa Community College at third base.

“I’ve always thrown like that” said Bibens-Dirkx of his sidearm delivery. “I was a lazy kid, so my arm angle was lazy, too!”

There’s nothing lazy about his approach however, as the right-hander wants nothing more than to make hitters look silly with his fastball and slider. But the kid is not a fighter, he’s a puncher.

“I know how to pitch,” he said. “Not just throw. I had to learn how to pitch first, because I didn’t throw very hard until my sophomore year in college.”

These skills, laced with plus stuff, are how Bibens-Dirkx went out and posted such impressive numbers over three levels last season. The M’s 16th rounder fanned 11.5 batters per nine, including five in two innings at Triple-A Tacoma, and walked just over two per nine innings. Along the way, Bibens-Dirkx allowed just 27 hits and nine walks in his 38 1/3 innings of work, and only six extra-base hits - no home runs.

Oddly, AB-D held left-handed batters to .138 average while righties managed to hit .240 off him. But that’s where the adjustments come into play. Generating better downward action and much more late, sinking action, Bibens-Dirkx’s fastball is now designed to aid his efforts versus righty sticks, biting down and in, tying them up.

“Before, righties could hit the ball semi-well off me because my pitches were on the same plane,” said Bibens-Dirkx. “If I threw it outside, it would tail right back into the barrel of the bat. Now if I throw it outside, it will still come back toward the barrel, but it will hit the bottom of the barrel, or nothing at all.”

Bibens-Dirkx is all about keeping runners off base, and though his pick-off move is only slightly above-average, he’s very quick to the plate, limiting a base runner’s ability to get much of a jump. The former infielder naturally fields his position well.

Weaknesses: Experience, and even that is a stretch. The 6-2, 190-pound Bibens-Dirkx is built like a 2-inning reliever and has the stuff to be productive in any role. The lack of a professional track record is his only downside, and it sure isn’t much of one.

He’s got as much helium as any pitcher in the system.

Fastball: Clocked in the 88-91 mph range a year ago - the myth of his velocity lives on, but we’re here to kill it, once and for all. Bibens-Dirkx’s work this spring has not only given him a better angle on his fastball that has allowed him to sustain his command, his velocity has jumped to the 90-93 range, and with consistency.

Imagine a sidearmer tossing a 93-94 mph fastball with good horizontal movement and late sinking action at a right-handed batter. Yeah, the outlook doesn’t look good for that hitter, does it?
Grade: 65/65+

Slider: And just when a left-handed batter thought it was safe… Bibens-Dirkx employs a slider in the 78-81 mph range, that he’ll use to backdoor a left-handed bat. It’s slurvy route to the plate is a great compliment to his attacking fastball, though his continued development of the pitch is beginning to remove the bow in his slider, making it more of a power offering, delaying and sharpening it’s break and potentially adding more velocity.
Grade: 50/55

Change-up: Bibens-Dirkx also has a circle change, clocked in the low-80s, that he’ll throw occasionally to lefty bats. Pitching in relief, the pitch may only show itself once every 20-25 offerings, depending on the opponent.
Grade: 45/50+

Command: Well, he walked nine batters, fanned 49 and allowed just six extra-base hits last season, and he’s added velocity this season. Bibens-Dirkx’s control remains excellent and may get even better as he gets more and more comfortable with the delivery he’s adjusted to.
Grade: 70/75

Mechanics/Delivery: After giving up too many pop-ups and fly balls, Brad Holman (AA), Lance Painter (A), Pat Rice (Coordinator) and Norm Charlton (pitching geek) worked with Bibens-Dirkx to stay on top of his pitches more, in order to induce more ground balls and avoid the potential disasters of being a fly-ball pitcher.

He’s taken well to the changes and is showing better life on all of his pitches as a result.
Grade: 65/70

Future: Bibens-Dirkx was assigned to Advanced-A High Desert, despite being much more advanced than half the staff in Double-A West Tennessee and having at least as promising a future to lean on. It’s not likely that he remains in the Cal League long, and his ascent through the system should be rapid, possibly ending in the big leagues in September.

The stuff he brings to the mound provides a bullpen with a strike-throwing machine to rely on regularly, and pitchers of that variety are rare and valuable at every level of baseball.

Fully expect AB-D to see a promotion by mid-season, and it’s not out of the question that he skips a level on his way to Seattle, where he fits nicely into the 6th and 7th innings.

You call that under the radar? I don’t.

MLB ETA: 2007 (September)

Photo: paulmphotography.com

Looking back on the 2003 and 2004 clubs, the first thing one usually notices is how quickly those stars from 2000-2002 got so old and stopped performing. It seemed like it happened suddenly, though the decline is more than obvious in hindsight.

It was clear that the Mariners needed a rebuild, and GM Bill Bavasi was in charge.

Well, here we are three years later, and the 25-man roster made official this week, is the best Bavasi could do. Will it be good enough? It doesn’t appear so, but looks can be deceiving.

The M’s, like all clubs, have their strengths and weaknesses that provide the keys to success, or failure, to the entire ‘07 campaign.

Strengths: The Mariners are a solid defensive club with potential Gold Glovers at shortstop, third base and center field, and all three outfielders can throw, with Ichiro and Jose Guillen possessing impact arms. Yuniesky Betancourt and Adrian Beltre combine to make up the AL’s best defensive left side and the improving Jose Lopez completes a sure-handed infield.

The M’s did make slight upgrades to their starting rotation over the winter. Our are the enigmatic Joel Pineiro and Gil Meche, as well as veteran Jamie Moyer, traded last August, replaced by Miguel Batista, Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez.

The threesome should throw more strikes and provide more stability, making the rotation a bit of strength in 2007.

Felix Hernandez is in the best shape since signing a pro contract and appears poised for a breakout season at the age of 21. The King is no doubt the ace of the staff and if the M’s are to contend at all, Felix will need to be consistently in top form.

– See Analysis Below –

The M’s have an ace closer in Putz and southpaws George Sherrill and veteran Arthur Rhodes give the club a solid duo to deal with all the left-handed bats in the division (Teixeira, Blalock, Anderson, Chavez, Swisher, Bradley, Kotchman, Kendrick, Matthews, Kotsay).

Offensively, there is more punch and contact this year, with the additions of Jose Vidro and Jose Guillen. Guillen had a huge spring and Vidro, while not the best DH in the world, is adept at working the count and making consistent contact. He should be especially effective against left-handed pitchers, and Ben Broussard can provide a solid option against righties.

The M’s are a good baserunning club and with a better philosophy should be able to create some advantages rather than running into outs.

Mike Hargrove has certainly switched gears on a lot of things, including the baserunning approach. He’s lightened his stance on Felix Hernandez and appears to be in a mindset of making choices based on whatever gets the team victories NOW, rather than staying loyal to veterans or dismissing ideas just because they aren’t his own.

Bench coach John McLaren is a big part of that.

Weaknesses: Even if the Mariners get median-to-plus or better seasons from the entire starting rotation, the limits on their production put a lot of pressure on a bullpen with question marks. The setup crew is shaky at best, unless rookie Brandon Morrow or the post-surgery Mark Lowe can ultimately grab the gig and run. Southpaws George Sherrill and veteran Arthur Rhodes give the club a solid duo to deal with all the left-handed bats in the division (Teixeira, Blalock, Anderson, Chavez, Swisher, Bradley, Kotchman, Kendrick, Matthews, Kotsay).

The middle of the batting order remains somewhat ordinary, as the club is relying on the kids and two veterans with injury concerns and potential declining skills to help the lineup score another 100 runs.

Sexson, Ibanez and catcher Kenji Johjima are the only defenders who grade below average heading into the season, but while Johjima was terrible in April and May last season, he did gather himself and get the job done for the final 2/3 of the year. He’s still below average overall, but if his work ethic dictates, he’ll be significantly better in many areas this season.

Johjima’s work with the pitching staff, and particularly The King, is perhaps the single most critical aspect of the season.

Felix Hernandez, RHP

The King begins his second full season in the majors as the club’s Opening Day starter and only chance to shut down opposing bats before the ninth inning. The owner of the best stuff of any right-hander in the game has few flaws and nipped one of them in the bud this off-season, dropping more than 20 pounds and reporting to spring training in the best shape of his life and more focused than ever.

With improved command and the team’s blessing to unleash a plus slider to go with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and a devastating curve, the sky isn’t even the limit. Hernandez has worked closely with pitching coach Rafael Chaves to clean up his mechanics and further develop a better feel for his changeup, which is a mind-blowing concept; four plus pitches including a change that typically tags the radar gun in the 82-84 mph range – 12-15 mph off his four-seamer?

Yep, that’s Felix.

Hernandez displayed a few flaws in his delivery last season, most notably his tendency to lead with his chin tilted skyward as he motioned to the plate and the lack of rythmn in his drive step, making it nearly im possible for him to repeat his delivery.

So far this spring, Hernandez has become more consistent in finishing his pitches, thanks to a trick taught to him by Chaves – finishing with his eyebrows angled toward the ground in front of him, rather than the press box behind home plate.

His rock-and-fire motion is still there, but with reduced violence, creating a simpler, more repeatable stride toward the dish.

Expect stints of inconsistencies with Felix’s performance this season, but there’s very little reason to believe Hernandez won’t be significantly better in 2007 than he was a year ago. By this time next spring, the 21-year-old could run for president and probably win.

Heck, I’d vote for him.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Hernandez made the all-star game this season, but it also wouldn’t be a complete shock if he kind of cruised along unspectacularly until mid-season and then went on a tear to end the year.

Either way, I fully expect to see a number of stellar outings from the phenom, including a decent number of double-digit strikeout performances and possibly a threatened no-no - or two… or five.

Key Ingredient: Focus, Change-up. A determined King has no equal and as long he’s able to sustain his concentration and confidence, the season will at least be entertaining. The development of his change-up could play an enormous factor in his success levels this year.

Most Important Pitch: Fastball, two-seamer and four-seamer. Getting ahead in the count and avoiding the bigger pitch counts is imperative for Hernandez’s success, more so than the typical power pitcher, due to his age and relative inexperience. His secondary stuff matters none if he can’t get ahead of hitters on a regular basis.

What to Watch For: Radar gun readings. And I don’t mean triple digits or all the 98s posted on the digital boards around the AL. I’m talking about 81, 83, 84, 82 - the velocity of his change-up.

There were times in the minors when Felix would go 94, 96, 97 with the fastball, and on a 1-2 pitch he’d pull the string on a well-located change in the low-80s - sick.

If Felix is confortable throwing his change, the league may not have much of a chance over the next 10 years. Look for him to throw the pitch a lot more this year than last, just as he did this spring.

2007 Projection: 32 GS, 217 IP, .220 BAA, 2.6 G/F, 8.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

The Mariners 2007 season hinges on a lot of things - a lot of things going right, that is. But in the end, the club will have to score runs to contend… consistently. The pitching staff is what it is, and it will probably be somewhat consistent in being what it is, which is mediocre to average. If the offense can generate slightly above league-average support, the M’s have a chance to win 85 games.

If they repeat 2006’s offensive output and experience similar injury results, they’ll probably dupe their 78-win performance from a year ago.

I keep going back and forth on which end of the spectrum this club is going to land. Two hours ago, I went on record and said they’d win 79 games.

One last re-analysis and I’m going to change that, 45 minutes before the first pitch.

I sense a slightly better year year from Richie Sexson, thanks to a better first half, and the same for Adrian Beltre, who I think will reach the 30-homer mark for the second time in his career, and first time in mariners blue.

Ichiro is Ichiro. He’ll probably hit .325, steal 40 bags, post a .430 SLG and play a gold glove center field. Raul Ibanez will probably have a tough time repeating his career year of ‘06, but unlike many, I don’t expect a large drop-off for one of the game’s biggest bargains.

Johjima… he’s a tough read. I think he’ll be better, just not a lot better, at least offensively. He may not match his ‘06 BA/OBP, but he could pop a few more long balls and pound out four or five more doubles and make the all-star team this year.

But those are fairly marginal differences during a 162-game schedule.

So why are they going to be eight games better? That’s simple, the Jose’s and YuBet.

Jose Guillen will be a force at times, and during the time he’s on the DL or in a bit of a slump at the plate, he’s an asset in the clubhouse (as long as he’s not threatening his manager), and defensively as well.

Jose Lopez is the club’s biggest wildcard in the batter’s box. He could pretty much repeat his 2006 numbers and nobody would complain much. But there’s more there - possibly 20 homers and 35 doubles - and this is the ideal season for him to breakout.

Betancourt may or may not improve on his 2006 offensive performance, but there really isn’t much of a chance that he takes a dive, either. He’s no automatic out and with more experience he’ll start hitting more line drives, too.

I’m hard on this club, I know. I’m very critical of Howard Lincoln, Chuck Armstrong and Mike Hargrove, and I’ve lost patience with GM Bill Bavasi. But at some point the law of averages have to help the M’s, rather than shove their faces further into the dirt. Some of these “should-be” talents should pan out, even if to the 70-80th percentile. The weakest division in baseball helps, especially since the A’s are as vulnerable as they’ve been in eight years.

PI’s TEAM PROJECTION 2007: 87-75, 2nd in AL West