At this rate, it won’t be long. It won’t be long at all. In two months and change the Seattle Mariners should have canned Mike Hargrove and handed the reigns over to John McLaren.

But it won’t make a difference. McLaren may be a better manager than Hargrove - I guess we’ll find out at some point this summer - but how is a field manager going to win with Jeff Weaver, Julio Mateo and Sean White on the roster?

How is McLaren going to get Jose Lopez to hit for more power? Can Johnny Mac flip a switch and get more than one or two of his hitters to find a groove at the same time?

For as many managerial mistakes as Mike Hargrove makes on a regular basis, this team isn’t very good on paper and without Felix Hernandez healthy for 220 innings, it’s a mediocre roster.

Yeah, I know, it’s not even 15 games into the season and the tone for the year has not been set. But it’s clear the Mariners, on their current track anyways, aren’t worthy of contention in even the wickedly terrible American League West.

The M’s are 5-8 heading into Sunday’s series finale with the LA Angels, and having lost five in a row are in desperate need of a win.

But it’s the perfect time to shake things up, being so early in the year. Moves need to be made, and if Hargrove wants to keep his job through this season, they need to be made sooner, rather than later when it all could be too late.

The Rotation
While Felix is on the shelf (team says 10-20 days, I say 4-5 weeks), Cha Seung Baek or Ryan Feierabend should share some portions of the available starts.

Jeff Weaver should be DFA’d immediately after he pitches another pathetic four or five innings today. He shouldn’t be allowed to take the mound in any role for the Seattle Mariners ever again. It doesn’t matter that he’s making $8.5 million. He sucks. Send him and his stash of hash packing. The Mariners are much better off paying $8.9 million to have Baek or Feierabend making starts than to be shelling out $8.5 for Weaver’s antics.

Miguel Batista and Horacio Ramirez are just going to have to suck it up and work on things. There is room to make a move with Ramirez who is not guaranteed anything beyond 2007, but if Baek and Feierabend are already in the rotation, any pending move would have to wait until Hernandez is back from the disabled list.

Feierabend is ready for some time, and while he’d certainly have his ups and downs and implosions to boot, at least he’s starting his career ascension, instead of finishing out his twilight years in a Mariners uniform.

Once Felix returns, Baek or Feierabend return to Triple-A, or Baek heads to the bullpen to take the spot of…

The Bullpen
Neither Sean White or Julio Mateo are big-league arms, not in this city. At one point, Mateo was a decent pitcher with average or better stuff and solid command. But the past few seasons and into this one, he’s thrown far too many pitches over the middle of the plate and is consistently surrendering runs in critical situations.

The game of baseball has changed. You can’t hide bad pitchers in your bullpen anymore. You have your specialists, your innings eaters, and your elite arms that should be taking on the high-leverage innings as much as possible.

Jon Huber hasn’t thrown the ball well at all this spring, but he’s still a better bet to get outs than Mateo, and while White is an interesting arm, Huber is of more help to the current 25-man. He’s proven he can be effective. Get him up here and stop wasting his prime years in Triple-A.

Justin Lehr, who has been starting in Tacoma, is an upgrade as well.

Once Felix returns, the M’s can either send Feierabend or Baek back to Triple-A or, here’s an idea; keep Feierabend in the rotation, slide Baek to the bullpen and send the lesser effective of Huber or Lehr back to the minors.

The Lineup
The only thing wrong with the lineup is Vidro hitting third. Yeah, he’s hitting a decent .278, but it’s as empty a batting average as can be. Vidro is slugging .389 - the two homers he hit at Safeco versus Texas are his only two extra-base hits of the season in 54 at-bats.

While I’m not huge on lineup changes being a huge difference maker, sliding Vidro down to the 7 spot and everyone else up one spot may give the lineup a more effective sequence. Raul Ibanez third, Richie Sexson fourth, Jose Guillen fifth and Kenji Johjima sixth.

And Ben Broussard needs to get some more ABs, starting at DH versus righties on a semi-regular basis. He’s got some value at the plate and offers a lot more pop than does Vidro. He’s wasting away on the bench and is making more money than the rest of the reserves combined.

In The End
The M’s need to cut bait before they can think about sending out trade feelers to improve the 2007 club. They need to find out if what they have underneath the dried up old skin is enough to keep them in it. If it is, they can start thinking about making a deal or two.

In case you are wondering why I titled this piece “July 9″…

That’s the official Prospect Insider over-under on Mike Hargrove getting fired. The M’s complete the first half schedule on Sunday July 8 against Oakland. Perfect time to clean house.

Depending on the win-loss record as well as the ineffectiveness of Grover’s moves, we’ll update the over-under weekly.

When Hargrove is canned, I’m throwing a party and all are invited, at a local eatery. Food and drink will be free for everyone that comes. Been waiting a year to have this swaree. Firing Hargrove is the beginning of the franchise getting things back in the right direction. Until it happens, none of us can move forward.

The Seattle Mariners have some pretty good pitchers in their organization… but Jeff Weaver isn’t one of them.

While Weaver wastes decent stuff more than any starter in the game today, the M’s could be building toward a system full of young arms, including a couple of potential frontline starters and polished impact relievers.

After the 21-year-old Hernandez, the organization boasts of quality power arms in Last June’s second and third round picks, Chris Tillman and Tony Butler.

The left-handed Butler had made two appearances, one in relief as well as one start, spanning 6 1/3 innings.  He’s allowed just three hits and an earned run while striking out seven, though his six walks are certainly a concern.

Butler has sat 90-92 with the fastball but has been struggling a bit with his release point.  It’s nothing alarming, it’s very early and it’s only two outings.  His curve ball and fastball are enough to get him trhough both A-ball stops, as long he throws them for strikes consistently.

Tillman has been spectacular in his two starts, and was at his best Wednesday afternoon when the 19-year-old went 5 2/3 innings yielding just two hits and walk while striking out eight.  On the year Tillman has posted a 15-1 K/BB ratio in 9 2/3 innings of work.

Ryan Feierabend is all of 21 years old, but has handled the PCL thus far and has had decent command of his three best pitches in each of his three starts.   He’s allowed 18 hits in his 16 1/3 innings, but has yet to allow a long ball.

The lefty has issued eight walks but the 15 strikeouts counter that just fine, and in the end Feierabend has the best present command of any pitching prospect in the system.

He’s Only Seventeen: Brett Christopherson, who covers the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers for the Appleton Post-Crescent, has a piece up about shortstop Carlos Triunfel, (pronounced (tree-un-fel), in today’s sports section. If you read into it far enough, you’ll see a familiar name sharing his opinion with Christopherson.

It’s a solid read and Rattlers hitting guru Dana Williams has some fairly interesting quotes to swallow up.  Triunfel has yet to get an extra-base hit but Williams is right - he’s clearly not overmatched in full-season ball - by any stretch.

It’s still of my belief that Triunfel won’t stick at short, based more on the likelihood that his bat is so far ahead of his defense that he could reach the majors much quicker if he was at second base or in center field.  He’s had his struggles in the field so far, but it’s much too early to make any judgments from the first two weeks of the season.

I’ve been a fan of the Seattle Mariners since the dark days of Alvin Davis, Spike Owen, and Phil Bradley.

I remember those dumb hats that they wore in the late 80’s with the Safeway-style “S” on them. I remember being delusional enough to actually believe that Rey Quinones was a good shortstop.

Needless to say, I’ve followed the team through good times and the bad. I plan to weigh in from time to time on various Mariner-related subjects. While I am not as well-versed on the prospects side, I’ll likely have a word or two about the farm system as well.

First, and certainly foremost, Felix Hernandez has obviously been spectacular. There isn’t much more that I can say about him that hasn’t been written and discussed to death at this point. It’s tough to think of many comparable matches to the 21-year-old at this point. Dwight Gooden is always a name that comes to mind, though he had experienced more success at this juncture. But, Gooden was also busy throwing more than 525 innings in his 20 and 21-year-old seasons.

I don’t think that I’d like to see The King throwing that many innings this year, or any year, really. Perhaps 220 innings or so, but that’s about it.

Middle of the Order
Jose Vidro… is there a worse No. 3 hitter in the American League? Yes, I do realize that he just smacked two homers in a game for the first time since 2003. But I also realize that has not surpassed even a .450 slugging percentage in a season since 2004. Not to mention the fact that he has only eclipsed a .500 slugging percentage once (when he was 25).

I started pouring through box scores to see if I could find a worse 3-hole hitter. The only team in the AL that has a No. 3 hitter that is anywhere near as suspect is the Kansas City Royals. Their third hitter is typically 3B/OF Mark Teahen. I’d still take Teahen over Jose Vidro in a heartbeat. I think we all would.

And, one would expect the Royals to not have a very imposing lineup due to their small payroll. With Vidro’s well-documented lack of speed, I am perplexed by the decision to bat him in the middle of the lineup. I’d almost be willing (if it weren’t such a depressing notion) to argue that the middle of the M’s lineup (Vidro-Ibanez-Sexson) is the weakest in the circuit. There a couple of teams whose middle of the order are about as inept as ours. And, since it’s early, I’ll stop short of making that claim.. for now.

This is How I Really Feel
Watching the game Friday night I’m also mystified by the fact that Julio Mateo still has a roster spot. I counted two, if not three, flyball outs that would’ve likely been home runs in other stadiums. It’s not as if he’s really fooling much of anyone.

When Mateo records outs it’s usually more due to the batters getting themselves out more than Mateo’s “stuff” being a factor. With a bullpen that’s pretty well-rested and has a lot of live arms to choose from, it seems that putting Mateo in would be akin to waving a white flag.

There are several arms, such as Jon Huber, among others, that I’d much rather see out there in middle relief. Mateo should either be the mop-up long man or he should be long gone, it’s as simple as that.

Airing it Out
The newest members of the broadcasting team, Dave Sims and former M’s third baseman Mike Blowers, are a breath of fresh air, thus far. Perhaps their rhetoric will wear on me in time, just like Hendu, Valle and Fairly did, but at the moment I have little to gripe about regarding either of them.

The only time I’ve been irked with Sims is when he continually mentioned Felix’s pending no-no (from about the 5^th inning on). I’m not a particularly superstitious person by nature, but his constant mentioning of the no-hitter had me literally screaming at my TV.

Blowers has been relatively informative and he hasn’t been irritating in terms of stating the obvious or rambling on about old “war stories”. I think that the best color analysts fill in the gaps without being obvious that they’re doing so. And, thus far, Blowers has fit the bill.

Now that the big club is finally through a week’s worth of games played - and in first place I might add - I still couldn’t take my eyes off the farm over the weekend. Yeah, yeah, nothing new, right? But there’s always something interesting going on, and the start to the 2007 season has brought many intriguing stories.

This is what I’ve seen, heard, watched, read about, talked about and taken notes on since the start of the year just 10 days ago.

Adam Jones is really, really good. He does something positive offensively every night, or so it seems. He’s gaining consistency in everything he does and may be truly ready for prime time at some point this season, whether the team has a role for him or not.

Jones is fighting off tough pitches when he’s down in the count, and either poking floaters into right field and giving himself a chance to reach base, or he’s working for a better pitch to hit - and getting it.

He’s murdering fastballs, gathering his share of extra-base knocks, drawing some walks, and while he’s still probably striking out a little too much, it doesn’t appear to be a chronic problem anymore.

Defensively he’s making steady progress overall, but is getting much better jumps this season. His routes still need work, but he’s improved in that area as well. The biggest transition left for Jones may be about the throws made as a center fielder versus his natural position at shortstop, where he spent the first three years of his pro career.

His plus arm strength is yet to be joined by the accuracy necessary to make an impact, but the first thing a scout said to me on opening night at Cheney Stadium will answer the questions as to whether he’ll figure that out, like he has everything else.

“He’s got it up here, and that’s going to be the difference, I think,” said the NL West scout tapping his left temple with his forefinger. “A lot of us (scouts around baseball) doubted that you could take such a young, inexperienced player that has already spent three years as a shortstop and make him an effective center fielder without it really beating up his offensive game for awhile. Most of those guys end up taking two or three more years to get where they are going.”

Jones is probably never going to be a superstar, and he isn’t going to turn into Ken Griffey Junior, but he’s well on his way to a long, productive, all-star laden career in the game of baseball.

Did I mention he’s a better base stealer than Mike Cameron?

Bryan LaHair is off to a slow start, but warmed up over the weekend. His stroke is solid, but inconsistent, and he still gets blown away by average fastball, likely due to his inability to either recognize certain pitches or anticipate in specific counts. Maybe both. Right now, it appears as if he’s guessing far too often, but he’ll get it going and he has looked better the past two days than he did on Friday.

Matt Tuiasosopo is still hitting and we’re past the point of it potentially being a lucky streak. Clearly he’s made some adjustments and the results are proof of that.

I’m trying to catch up with roving hitting instructor and former Seattle Mariner Alonzo Powell to see what the difference has been mechanically for Tui.

He’s drawing walks and like Jones, he seems to do something good every night. If he goes 0-3, he’s tallying a walk or two. Great sign.

Ryan Feierabend is missing bats in Triple-A and the more he does that consistently, the worse Jeff Weaver’s contract gets. The southpaw is a perfect fit for Safeco Field, even as a young and relatively inexperienced arm. But for 340k, Feierabend is a much better investment and it’s certainly not out of the question that the 21-year-old could outperform 40 percent of the current M’s starting five.

He will benefit, however, from his time in Triple-A and it’s better for Feierabend’s career in the end that he spends the season with Tacoma and goes to spring training with a job to lose.

Reliever Eric O’Flaherty is so much better today than he was when I saw him spring training two years ago. it’s ridiculous. He’s bigger, stronger, and his delivery is so much more fluid. His fastball has good movement and his cutter is slicing up righties. He’s the best reliever in AAA right now.

Ryan Rowland-smith hasn’t been bad, either, and his 6-strikeout effort over 2 1/3 innings on Saturday was a sign that he’s throwing the ball pretty well. Both lefties should see time in the bigs this season; O’Flaherty as soon as the M’s get their heads out of their rear-ends, RRS in September.

Cha Seung Baek is likely still the top SP called up should the Mariners need one. He’s throwing fairly well, too, including a strong outing on Sunday where the right-hander went six innings allowing five hits, two earned runs while fanning five.

Don’t worry about Rob Johnson’s defense. Just don’t.

Don’t worry about Jeff Clement’s bat. Just don’t.

Outfielder Mike Saunders has turned a few heads with the walk totals thus far, which is nice to see, but before I get too excited, I want to see him do some damage with the bat. He has four doubles and triple, but is slugging just .485 during a “hot streak” in the Cal League.
Either way, his 15-7 BB-K ratio is fantastic, and the 6-foot-4, 200-pounder has seven steals in eight attempts.

After starting the year 0-14 with 11 strikeouts, outfielder Greg Halman is 3 for his last 8 with a double and two steals.

Third baseman Alex Liddi picked up his first hit of the year on Saturday, a double, but is still just 1-for-20 on the year with 10 strikeouts and zero walks.

Jeremy Reed may have lost the edge he had three years ago when he was traded from the Chicago White Sox to the M’s for Freddy Garcia. He’s not as selective at the plate and though he has a double and a homer in his first 42 plate appearances, the consistency hasn’t shown itself thus far.

His OBP, however, is solid at .333 considering his .243 batting average. There has been word that he’s been under the weather, which would be a legit explanation. We’ll wait and see on Reed getting things going.

Fantastic Photo (LHP Eric O’Flaherty): Deanna/Marinerds