No. 4 - Tony Butler, LHP

Since 1998 the Seattle Mariners have been perusing the talent in the game of baseball, actively searching for left-handed pitching.

They’ve signed a few, traded for a couple and selected a number of them every June. But until round three of this past year’s draft, there hasn’t been such a promising southpaw since Ryan Anderson was taken in the first round nearly 10 years ago.

Tony Butler could very well be part of the resurgence of your Seattle Mariners, barring a miracle that the return to prominence occurs sooner.

With a plus fastball and curve and great makeup, the 19-year-old is an improved changeup away from being the next all-star quality starter in Mariners blue.

Strengths: Butler is able to create a leverage advantage with all of his pitches, and has shown the ability to induce ground balls as a result. He’s also got a lot of confidence to go with a strong work ethic and tons of projectability – one of the main reasons the M’s took a shot at him in the third round.

His velocity jumped markedly late in his prep season last spring and while many clubs had given up on him as an early pick, the Mariners stayed with him and it may pay off.

Butler’s considered to be a solid young man and his acumen for learning receives top grades by all accounts – inside and outside the Mariners organization. His performance in Everett last summer has many scouts saying the M’s got the steal of the round, if not the entire draft.

Weaknesses: Butler has a few flaws in his mechanics that the club sees as “necessary to fix” but none are supposedly career breakers by any means. The 19-year-old left-hander is about average at holding runners at this stage of his career but fields his position at an above-average level.

He tends to become predictable with his pitch selection, though that surely didn’t show up in the results last season, and will need to learn better sequential schemes to succeed in the upper levels of the minors.

AGE HEIGHT WEIGHT BATS THROWS ACQUIRED
19 6-7 210
Left Left Draft, 2006 - 3rd Round
YEAR TEAM LEVEL G IP ERA HR/9 BB/9 K/9 AVG SLGA OPS OPS* BABIP*
2006 Peoria R 5 14 2.57 0.00 5.79 16.07 .116 .186 .482 .482 .278
2006 Everett SS 9 42.1 2.76 0.43 5.31 11.06 .160 .236 .523 .503 .233

Tools –

Fastball: Butler was scouted as a mid-round pick as the season began last spring while he sat in the 87-90 range with his fastball. About halfway through his senior season he began to reach back for more, and more is what he got. He often touched 93 with a four-seamer, and that trend continued as a pro.

Butler gets good downward plane on his 90-93 mph heater, and while its horizontal movement is about average, it’s still a plus pitch due to the improved velocity and vertical action.

His fastball command needs improvement, but that will come with repetition and proper coaching.
Grade: 60/65

Curve: Butler’s out pitch is his 1-7 curve ball that he has loads of confidence throwing in any count. Even 3-0, Butler has shaken off his catcher to get the old No. 2, wound up and fired in a low-80s yacker that can buckle the knees of a left-handed bat and force a righty to give up early and regret it dearly.

He overused the pitch at times and the club asked him to back off the pitch late last year to save some torque on his young elbow, which forced/allowed him to use his third pitch more often.

Butler’s curve is currently above average and has the depth and late break to become a plus power curve ball that could give major leaguers a heckuva tough time.
Grade: 55/65

Change: Currently his third best offering, Butler’s change is actually fairly solid considering he didn’t use it much in high school. He’s got a circle grip that should prove to be an easy learn for him with his larger-than-average hands and fingers.

With good dead-fish action, it’s already a useful offering and the more he throws it, the better it’ll get. If he can gain more confidence in the change-up, the sky is the limit for the Wisconsin native.
Grade: 50/60

Command: While he only served up two home runs in over 56 innings of work last summer, he did find a way to issue nearly 5.5 walks per nine innings. He countered that with more than 12 K/9 but the walk rates have to improve against better competition.

Butler did have spurts of solid control in Everett, but it appeared as if he was trying to make a perfect pitch and that’s something a lot of young pitchers have to fight off.

There’s no reason why Butler can’t improve his command to the average level, or better, and his 2007 campaign will likely entail a lot of dialogue containing the words “throw strikes” from pitching coach Lance Painter.
Grade: 40/50+

Mechanics: Butler’s delivery pours his left arm out of the 5/8 slot which helps him hide the ball a little longer and create a slurvy curve ball. Being 6-7 and fairly athletic can both aid and hinder Butler’s mechanics, but he’s already built a pretty solid foundation of which to work.

Only minor adjustments are necessary at this point in his career, but one of them is the inconsistent length in his stride toward home plate. See? Minor, but a necessary fix.
Grade: 50/55

Future: Butler has the pure stuff to push to become a No. 1 starter in the big leagues. To make that a reality, he’ll have to avoid major injury, which means a lot of focus on his mechanics, and vastly improve his command.

While bettering one’s command to that extent is rare, Butler’s still capable of settling in as Seattle’s No. 2 starter, right behind Felix Hernandez, who’ll be a crafty veteran when Butler breaks through in a few years.

He’s a natural candidate to turn his curve ball into a slider, but that will likely come later in his minor league days after he’s proven he can command his fastball and curve.

No. 5 - Ryan Feierabend, LHP

Three years ago Ryan Feierabend was just another “soft-tossing lefty” among many graded ahead of him in the Mariners farm system.

Behind the likes of Bobby Livingston and Travis Blackley, Feierabend just kept quiet, went about his work and the results of his efforts are now shining through. The 6-3, 200-pounder has more projectability than either of his southpaw cohorts, and is now No. 5 on the M’s prospect list.

Strengths: Feierabend is the quintessential poster boy for the step-by-step plan for pitching prospects. Since being drafted, Feierabend has moved at a medium but consistent pace through the system, ending last season in the big leagues at age 21.

The southpaw is a student of the game and has built his repertoire around a fastball that has jumped nearly 5 mph since June of 2003, thanks to careful adjustments in such things as the grip on his fastball, his entire delivery and his overall approach to pitching.

He’s got the best pickoff move in all of the minors (36 of 39 would-be basestealers caught trying and two straight pickoff titles), and his secondary stuff has improved significantly every season, allowing him to compete successfully against more experienced bats, year-in and year-out.

Smart, tough and ever-improving, Feierabend is well on his way to a long major league career.

Weaknesses:
Without overpowering velocity or a devastating breaking ball, Feierabend has to work for his outs and will need to continue to sharpen his command which would allow his above-average stuff to play up.

If he is pushed to the majors and forced to finish his development while attempting to keep his roster spot, Feierabend will need to learn to handle failure and bounce back the next time through the rotation.

AGE HEIGHT WEIGHT BATS THROWS ACQUIRED
21 6-3 200
Left Left Draft, 2003 - 3rd Round
YEAR TEAM LEVEL G IP ERA HR/9 BB/9 K/9 AVG SLGA OPS OPS* BABIP*
2006 San Antonio AA 28 154 4.28 0.94 3.22 7.42 .267 .426 .759 .782 .317

Tools –

Fastball: Feierabend’s fastball is his most important offering in one sense, because everything else he does is dependent on getting ahead in the count on a regular basis.

His heater currently sits in the 89-92 mph range after starting his pro career in the mid-80s. Feierabend is able to locate his fastball on both sides of the plate and can occasionally sneak one of his better four-seamers by good hitters, even if it’s up in the zone a bit.

He’s also able to get some solid sink action on it without taking anything off, and can cut it in on righties and away from lefties.
Grade: 50+/55

Curve: Perhaps the most improved pitch in his arsenal, Feierabend’s curve ball is very much like that of former Mariners pitcher Jamie Moyer, with similar depth and additional velocity, but lacking the consistency.
Grade: 45/50

Slider: Right now his slider is his third best pitch, but in time his curve is expected to surpass it’s breaking pitch bretheren. The more his curve improves, the less he’ll throw the slider, except perhaps against lefthanded bats.
Grade: 50/50+

Change:
Feierabend’s bread and butter is his fastball-change combo, and his circle changeup is probably his best chance at keeping big-league hitters at bay. He’s as consistent with his fastball-change velocity differential as anyone in the system, sitting in the 80-82 mph range with the dead fish.

Considering his four-seamer sits around 90 mph, an 80 mph changeup with good deception is a weapon any pitcher can use.
Grade: 55/65

Command: Feierabend continues to improve his consistency, and his command has taken leaps over the past two seasons, despite slightly inferior walk rates last season, which can be partly explained by the level of competition.

But all that proves is that Feierabend needs another year in the minors to round out the edges. He throws strikes with regularity and rarely hurts himself with the base on balls or the big fly.
Grade: 55/60+

Mechanics: Feierabend is usually smooth and balanced with his motion,throwing from a 4/5 arm slot, but can fall into a bad habit of exerting too much effort, overthrowing and landing off-balance on his front foot. The club doesn’t feel that it’s a major issue and believe he may have done that for the last time, citing a small adjustment at the top of his delivery to reestablish balance.
Grade: 45/55

Future: Feierabend’s ceiling is probably as a No. 3 starter, but there is little risk that he’ll be useful in the big leagues. His stuff isn’t necessarily built to play well in the bullpen, but it’s not likely to matter – he’s a starter through and through.

He’ll need to get better versus lefthanders but has the stuff (slider, cutter) to do it.

The Ohio native will begin the year in Triple-A Tacoma and is high on the short list of call-ups, should the need arise.

One scout, who specializes in young projectable pitchers, had this to say about Feierabend early last season:

“Oh yeah, he’s going to be a pretty good one, and probably for a long, long time. One of those middle-tiered types who always finds a job and has some good years.”

MLB ETA: 2007

MLB CLONE –
Ceiling: Cliff Lee
Median: Nate Robertson
Cellar: Randy Keisler

OFP: 63.0
PI Projection 2007: 4.2 ERA, 7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.42 G/F

No. 6 - Chris Tillman, RHP

Chris Tillman was seen as a first-round talent by most that scouted him, analyzed him and faced him from 60+ feet away. But the way the chips fell last June favored the Seattle Mariners more than Tillman, who dropped into the club’s lap in round two.

Let’s see, a 6-foot-5 pitcher who approaches the mid-90s with his fastball and has a bigtime breaking ball to go with the potential for two more useful offerings?

Yes. Yes, please.

Chris Tillman is No. 6, and with as much helium, as they say, as any arm in the system.

Strengths: Tillman has a prototypical physical build at 6-5 and 195 pounds, which allows for young pitchers to rely on their natural abilities rather than trying to do more than they are capable of, which can lead to major injuries, particularly to one’s elbow or shoulder.

The M’s 2nd rounder last June has two quality pitches, a plus fastball and an above-average curve, and is working to develop a quality split-finger or change to compliment his out pitches.

Tillman showed good stuff last year in Peoria, and then again in Everett where his numbers showed he has work to do, but his stuff is certainly big-league quality.

Weaknesses: Other than being raw, which is more than just common among prep arms, Tillman just needs experience and time to work on his command and mechanics. His work ethic will be challenged in pro ball where high school antics get you nowhere – ask Jermaine Brock – and hard work and total dedication means everything.

Many believe the differences between Tillman and the club’s third-round pick last summer go a lot further than the hand in which they throw, the round they were chosen and the names on their backs. Tillman has some work to do to prove he was worth being among the top 50 players chosen, but the desire is there, as are the pitching tools.

He’ll just need to shed some tears, wipe some sweat from his brow and bleed through his uniform a little bit, after showing signs of slacking in high school, though that may very well have been due to a lack of interest or competition, since he played on a prep team that did not compete for the state title his senior year.

AGE HEIGHT WEIGHT BATS THROWS ACQUIRED
19 6-5 195
Right Right Draft, 2006 - 2nd Round
YEAR TEAM LEVEL G IP ERA HR/9 BB/9 K/9 AVG SLGA OPS OPS* BABIP*
2006 Peoria R 5 11 0.82 0.00 4.09 13.09 .214 .214 .527 .432 .346
2006 Everett SS 5 19.2 7.78 1.83 6.86 13.27 .327 .558 1.011 .972 .477

Tools –

Fastball: Tillman sat anywhere from 90-93 in his pro debut last season, occasionally touching 94 or 95, which could ultimately become his average fastball. He’s a candidate to learn the art of the two-seamer in order to induce more ground balls, but the club sees him as the type of pitcher, being taller, who can learn to stay on top of his pitches and keep the ball down, so a different heater may not be necessary.

With plus velocity, Tillman has the makings of a very good four-seamer.
Grade: 60/65+

Curve: Tillman’s 12-6 style curve is his bread and butter and is thrown in the 75-77 mph range – potentially a true power curve. As always, his command of the pitch needs improvement, but it’s got sharp, late break and solid depth, though it may endure some altering on his path to the show.

The Mariners do not want to see their kids throw too many curves or sliders, so watch for Tillman to be asked to use his curve sparingly, particularly later in the year as his workload tops out.
Grade: 55/65

Splitter: Tillman began throwing a split-finger in high school, but the M’s prefer he learns a true change to save his valuable arm as he continues to mature physically. In a few years, they’ll remove the limitations and the better bet is that he sticks with the splitter, as a true change, usually of the circle grip variety, is much more difficult to master.

He can throw the true changeup and will be asked to develop it further.
Grade: 45/55

Command: Other than growing up and learning how to be a professional, Tillman’s crutch is currently the control and command in which he throws his plus stuff. He’ll need to become more confident in his pitches and avoid trying to go for the strikeout in every situation, which in turn will improve his walk rates.

If he’s able to develop solid mechanics that are conducive to keeping the ball down in the strike zone, the home run totals will plummet.
Grade: 40/50+

Mechanics: The club is still analyzing and tinkering with the basics with their second round choice, and as he climbs through the system he’ll certainly continue to make adjustments along the way.

The most glaring red flags among most prep arms are about following through, balance and keeping the front shoulder closed, and Tillman is no different – he’ll need to be watched, though he’s shown a fairly clean delivery and no hitches in his arm action.
Grade: 45/55

Future: Tillman’s ceiling is as a No. 2 starter with “Gil Meche” type stuff. Hopefully for the M’s Tillman avoids the operating table and develops better command sooner in his career than did Meche.

In the end, it’s all about command for Tillman, who’s already got two big-league offerings.

The right-hander will start his first full season in pro ball with Wisconsin in the Midwest League, where his mistakes will be minimized by the poor weather conditions and a few larger ballparks.

A quality first half could spring him to the Cal League for a look-see, provided he’s got room in his workload.

MLB ETA: 2010

MLB CLONE –

Ceiling: Brett Myers

Median: Gil Meche

Cellar: Zach Miner

OFP: 63.5

PI Projection 2007: 4.3 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.22 G/F

No. 7 - Justin Thomas, LHP

When the M’s selected Justin Thomas in the fourth round of the 2005 First Year Players Draft, some questioned the choice, contending that Thomas was nothing more than a future middle reliever with average stuff.

Since then Thomas has changed the minds of most. The majority seem to believe he has a shot to start in the big leagues, provided he continues to improve over the next year and a half. One scout went as far as suggesting that Thomas had “the makings of a pretty valuable pitcher backing up a solid front three. He’s the ideal type of talent that can effectively support a good rotation.”

The string of strong drafts began in the fourth round of 2004 (Rob Johnson, then Mark Lowe in the 5th) and continued right on through the following June’s first day with selections such as Thomas, 5th rounder Steve Kahn and 7th rounder Robert Rohrbaugh.

Thomas is a favorite of mine because of his size, pitchability and the fact that he’s had success from the very start of his pro career.

Strengths: Thomas brings a bulldog type attitude to the mound and it shows up in the results – a good sign for a potential middle-rotation type. At 6-3 and 225 pounds, he’s built well and as a lefthander, throws with above-average velocity.

He’s developed nicely in his one-plus years in the system, and has handled each level just as the club wanted. He’s still three levels from the big leagues, but he could move along a little quicker from this point on.

Thomas is very good versus lefty bats, which bodes well for his future.

Weaknesses: Thomas could use better command of his off-speed pitches and now that he’s experienced after college and more than a year in pro ball, that aspect of his game should start showing up this season.

The 23-year-old is athletic enough to field his position well and he’s about average at holding runners. He’s been able to bare down with runners on base thus far, evidence that he may deal with adversity fairly well.

Tools –

Fastball: The Youngstown State product sits in the 88-92 mph range with his four-seamer, and with solid movement. He attacks aggressively on both sides of the plate and is adept at getting the groundball at a decent rate.

While he’s not going to blow away hitters regularly, he will sneak in a low-90s dart on either corner and catch a good hitter watching a called third strike.
Grade: 50+/55

Slider: Currently an average offering, Thomas’ slider has improved since draft day, showing sharper break and more consistency after making some long overdue adjustments to his mechanics.

His slider is clocked in the 82-85 mph range and is especially effective against lefthanders with its tailing break.
Grade: 50/55

Changeup: Possibly the most important pitch in Thomas’ arsenal is his circle change, thrown in the 81-83 mph range. When it’s working, the pitch will die an untimely death, at least for the hitter anyway. Thomas has developed a pretty good feel for the pitch and has regular success with it. More consistency with its location could bump it up a grade, which is what draws the comparisons to Mark Buehrle (above) as a star for which to shoot.
Grade: 50/60

Command: Thomas has posted decent yet unspectacular walk rates and occasionally can fall behind hitters and create tough situations for himself. Overall, however, the M’s 2005 4th rounder doesn’t beat himself. He allowed 14 home runs in nearly 170 innings last season, despite pitching in the homer-happy California League for 2/3 of the year.
Grade: 50/55

Mechanics: Throwing from a typical lefthanded 5/8 arm slot, Thomas creates good balance and his consistent delivery plays up all of his pitches, particularly his fastball-change combo. Slight adjustments were made in his actions toward the plate, specifically from the stretch, and his numbers have been more than satisfactory ever since.
Grade: 50/55

Future: Thomas has good enough stuff, grading at average or better in all areas, to start regularly in the majors, and may be closer to the big leagues than fellow southpaw and ’05 draftee Robert Rohrbaugh, despite being about a year behind in his climb up the ladder.

He’ll likely begin the 2007 season with Double-A West Tennessee with a chance to end the year in Triple-A, setting himself up for a big-league opportunity from September through the following spring.

Thomas profiles as a No. 4 starter, but if he maximizes his potential, there’s no reason he can’t be a workhorse in the middle of a decent rotation. He has enough stuff to work out of the bullpen, too, where his effectiveness against lefties would be valuable.

MLB ETA: 2008

MLB CLONE –

Ceiling: Mark Buehrle

Median: Jarrod Washburn

Cellar: Brad Halsey

OFP: 59.0

PI Projection 2007: 3.85 ERA, 185 IP, 3.5 W/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.8 G/F

No. 8 - Bryan LaHair, 1B

Since when did the Seattle Mariners have a left-handed hitting first baseman that was nearly ready for a look in the big leagues?

Since last summer when Bryan LaHair showed impressive power in his first taste of Triple-A baseball.

Where did he come from? He was the 1180th player taken in the 2002 draft.

Yeah, one thousand, one hundred and eightieth overall.

Not a bad find by the Mariners in the 39th round of an otherwise shallow draft, eh?

Bryan LaHair jumps Wladimir Balentien as prospect No. 8.

Strengths: The lefty-hitting LaHair had a huge 2005 with Class A Inland Empire, leading the minors in RBI until he left the 66ers to play for Team USA, but it was his short-but-sweet streak last summer with Triple-A Tacoma that has opened some eyes.

LaHair has a solid stroke, a pretty strong eye at the plate and the late bloomer seems to be improving almost as if he was just 19 or 20. He has power to all fields, but he’s at his best when he’s making pitchers pay for mistakes on the inner half.

Weaknesses: LaHair has problems making contact, though not to the extent of Balentien. Striking out 101 times in 438 PAs is not where he needs to be break into the big leagues with a chance to stick.

He doesn’t draw his share of walks, either, but he did post career best rates, which could bode well for him in 2007. He has become more selective and his improved swing has become dramatically more consistent the past two seasons.

He struggles something awful against lefties (.159avg, .182slg in AA — .255avg, .383slg in AAA) and must improve to be of any regular use in the big leagues. Either that or he has to dominate right-handed pitchers, Barry Bonds style.

AGE HEIGHT WEIGHT BATS THROWS ACQUIRED
24 6-5 225 Left Right Draft, 2002 - 39th round
YEAR TEAM LEVEL G 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS*
2006 San Antonio AA 60 12 0 6 24 52 .293 .371 .428 .798 .837
2006 Tacoma AAA 54 10 0 10 23 49 .327 .393 .525 .918 .946

Tools –

Hitting for Average (on-base skills): LaHair’s career .297/.356 line shows he has a pretty good idea how to get on base… he just needs to do more of it and stay consistent in his efforts. His emergence in Tacoma has some very excited to see what lies ahead for the 24-year-old, but he’ll need to control the strike zone a little bit better, and continue to develop better pitch recognition.
Grade: 45/55

Hitting for Power: The truth is, power is typically the last tool to reach it’s full potential, and LaHair is the M’s poster boy for that fact. After slugging .505 in the Cal League, LaHair still had a lot to prove, due to the confines and weather conditions that are so conducive to the bats in that circuit.

He hit for average in San Antonio but was seemingly bothered by the home park, notorious for shredding a hitter’s power stroke and confidence. In Triple-A to finish his season, his work with Terry Pollreisz started to pay off, finishing with 10 homers, 10 doubles and a .525 slugging for the Rainiers.

“He clearly made a few adjustments,” said an AL scout who had just finished watching LaHair tear a hole in the Portland Beavers pitching staff. “They may have been made before he came up but he’s really getting the (bat) head out there and turning on some fastballs.”

LaHair is on the map and if he can duplicate his development from last summer, he’ll be in the big leagues in no time.
Grade: 55/60+

Glove: The right-handed throwing LaHair handles his position well and has above average foot-speed for a player 6-5 and 225 pounds. He’s adept in turning the 3-6-3 double play and is solid at making the toss to the pitcher on grounders to the right side.
Grade: 55/60

Arm: LaHair can make all the routine throws, including the tough one across the diamond and the relay to the plate. His arm strength is a tick above average.
Grade: 55/55

Future: LaHair might be in a make-or-break type season at age 24. With Richie Sexson under contract for two more seasons, the club could be forced to either trade the veteran or DH him to make room for a younger, cheaper player if LaHair explodes again this season.

And while he’s an athletic first baseman, he probably doesn’t have the foot speed to play the outfield on a regular basis, limiting his big-league roles to first or DH. He’s not versatile enough defensively to be a useful bench player, so he’ll need to produce a little versus LHP.

If he struggles, his chance to start in the majors, at least in Seattle, would likely be gone, though if Sexson were dealt, LaHair would get a second life. He’ll start 2007 as Tacoma’s everyday first baseman.

MLB ETA: 2007 (September-ish)

MLB CLONE:

Ceiling: Lyle Overbay

Median: Ben Broussard

Cellar: Scott Hatteberg

OFP: 61.5

PI Projection 2007: .282/.348/.455, 55 BB, 118 K

Note: Why LaHair over Balentien at the last second? I talked about the two players with a Mariners minor league coach over the weekend and he made a good point on the risk-reward factor that made me switch the two.

Balentien has a higher ceiling, but he’s less likely to get to be Bill Hall, circa 2006, than LaHair is Lyle Overbay. Hence the swap.

But, LaHair simply does not have the potential pay-off of any of the top 7, despite having less risk than three of the pitchers.

It’s like this. Would you give a dollar for a chance at 5? Well, Bryan LaHair is the dollar, and Tony Butler and Chris Tillman are five spots.

I’d give away a buck to get five, even if the risk is somewhat high, but I wouldn’t do the same for two bucks (Balentien).

No. 9 - Wladimir Balentien, OF

Wladimir Balentien. That’s Vlad-uh-meer Bal-in-teen. He’s an extremely intriguing hitter and loads of fun to watch once he makes his way into the batter’s box. He’s not a bad athlete, either, as evidenced by his position assignments the past two seasons: center field.

Balentien is a hit or miss prospect. He either will, or he won’t. There really is no big-league future for him if he misses. Who wants a .230 hitting outfielder with medium power and a tremendous penchant for the strikeout? Okay, who else other than you, Pedro?

The risk with Balentien’s promise is very high, but the progress he made last season is exciting.

Wlad Balentien, Prospect No. 8 No. 9.

Strengths: Balentien brings a lot of natural raw power to the table and appears to be improving his strike zone judgment and overall plate discipline. The Aruban born outfielder is a decent defender with an solid throwing arm and would fit in either corner spot.

He has quick wrists and a mean streak, which bodes well for a potential major leaguer.

Weaknesses: The free-swinging right-handed hitter is still swinging awfully hard and still chases balls out of the strike zone too often. Even with a vastly improved K/BB ratio, there is more improvement needed in this area.

He must find a way to make more consistent contact while sustaining his power numbers. Last season in San Antonio, it was either or, rarely both. Hitting in the .230s won’t get Balentien much of a look, unless he explodes in the power department. But the best way for him to max out his production is hit the baseball more often than he has.

AGE HEIGHT WEIGHT BATS THROWS ACQUIRED
22 6-1 205 Right Right UDFA, Curacao, 2000 (Williams)
YEAR TEAM LEVEL G 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS*
2006 San Antonio AA 121 23 1 22 70 140 .230 .337 .435 .772 .806

 

Tools –

Hitting for Average (on-base skills): Balentien was your typical free-swinging slugger, Rob Deer style, for the first three seasons of his career. High strikeouts, mild walk rates, at best, and simply above-average power production, which wasn’t going to be enough to waltz Balentien into the big leagues.

In the Texas League, a pitcher’s circuit, the 22-year-old took a pretty large step forward, drawing 70 walks, more than doubling his previous career high set in 2005. His strikeout rates remained about the same and the 70 walks were drawn in nearly 50 less plate appearances than the 33 he posted in the Cal League. His +107 OBP-AVG is impressive, but he’ll need to take another step or two in the same direction to put himself on the map.

“Balentien knows how to square it up and put a charge into it,” says former Mariners minor league hitting coordinator Glenn Adams. “He just needs to learn how to hit now. The power will take care of itself with him. He has all those other things necessary for him to be a good power guy, now it’s just about getting him comfortable, making more contact and getting base hits.”
Grade: 35/50

Hitting for Power: Balentien’s shtick, so to speak, is hitting the tar out of the baseball. It’s his bread and butter and while he’s not bad at it, his power still doesn’t grade out as well as it could, due to the lack of consistency.

Like many young hitters, Balentien is in a hurry to hit a 5-run shot over the river and through the woods. On occasion, he reaches the riverbank, but far too often he ends up wishing for a mulligan.

He’s learning to shorten his stride and has developed a better, shorter swing overall, allowing his bat to take a more effective route through the zone.
Grade: 60/65

Glove: Balentien can make the neceesary plays, but, despite playing center field for the better part of his career to this point, his future is in left or right. He lacks the natural instincts to play center and his footspeed is merely average – at best - for the position. He’ll likely continue to fill out and outgrow center field anyways.
Grade: 45/50

Arm: Balentien has an above average throwing arm, both in strength and accuracy, though he tends to “let it fly” sometimes out of pure effort. He throws well enough to play right and is an ideal left fielder in a park like Safeco, at least as far as his arm strength is concerned.
Grade: 50/60

Baserunning: Balentien’s baserunning skills are likely to become fairly insignificant in both directions because he’s either going to be a power hitter or he’s not going to be a big-league player. He’s aggressive on the base paths and likes to steal bases, though he’s got a lot of learning to do in that area as well.
Grade: 45/50

Future: Balentien has a long ways to go to be considered a major league hitter. The tools are there, but the skills are not, at least not yet. He need a few more coats of polish to get things in order. There’s a pretty good chance he never gets there, but he’s interesting and will be as entertaining as any offensive prospect this season.

Wlad should begin his 2007 season in Triple-A Tacoma where the pitching and early season weather will challenge his discipline and the ballparks will lend a hand to his power numbers.

MLB ETA: 2008

MLB CLONE -

Ceiling: Bill Hall

Median: Jose Guillen

Cellar: Alex Escobar

PI Projection: .247/.306/.433, 48 BB, 118 K

OFP: 61.0

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